ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Transkripsi

1 ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 6 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Bursa Asia menguat di hari Jumat, setelah naiknya harga minyak membantu mendorong Wall Street ke rekor tertinggi, sementara bursa Cina menguat oleh harapan tambahan stimulus. Indeks MSCI Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,2% dan catat kenaikan mingguan 2%. Saham Cina melanjutkan penguatannya setelah fixed asset investment, retail sales dan industrial output kesemuanya menguat namun masih di bawah ekspektasi. Indeks CSI300 naik 1,9% ke 3294,23 yang merupakan level penutupan tertinggi sejak awal Januari sedangkan Shanghai Composite Index naik 1,6% ke 3050,67. Dalam sepekan, CSI300 naik 2,8% dan SSEC naik 2,5%. Indeks Nikkei ditutup naik 1,1% menyusul melemahnya yen dan catat kenaikan mingguan 4,1%, sementara saham Hong Kong naik 0,8% ke level tertinggi 9 bulan dan catat kenaikan mingguan 2,8%. Adapaun saham Australia berakhir menguat 0,4%. Eropa: Indeks saham Eropa terkonsolidasi pasca tembus level tertinggi 7 pekan yang baru pada hari Jumat, dengan penurunan pada saham pertambangan mengimbangi kenaikan pada sejumlah perusahaan seperti A.P. Moller-Maersk berkat update laporan keuangannya. Sekitar 88% dari perusahaan dalam STOXX 600 telah memberikan laporan keuangannya, dimana 61% dirilis sama atau lebih baik dari perkiraan. Indeks STOXX Europe 600 turun 0,2% setelah menembus level tertinggi 7 pekan di sesi sebelumnya, mengganti seluruh kerugian pasca Brexit. Indeks catat kenaikan mingguan 1,4% dan membukukan kinerja mingguan terbaiknya sejak medio Juli. Sedangkan bursa Inggris capai level tertinggi 14 bulan, meskipun akhirnya ditutup datar, ditengah anjloknya saham pertambangan. AS & Global Markets: Rilis data ekonomi AS yang kurang memuaskan telah menekan dolar dan juga yield Treasury pada hari Jumat dan menekan harga saham, namun kerugian Wall Street mampu dibatasi dan berlanjut menguat berkat naiknya harga minyak dan Nasdaq naik tipis dekat rekor tertinggi untuk kedua kalinya secara berturut-turut. Short covering mampu membantu dorong reli minyak. Penjualan ritel AS diluar dugaan datar di bulan Juli sementara data lainnya menunjukkan PPI catat penurunan tertajamnya dalam hampir 1 tahun di bulan Juli. Menurunnya belanja konsumen dan inflasi yang rendah di AS mengisyaratkan The Fed belum akan menaikkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat. Dolar terkoreksi 0,1% terhadap sejumlah rivalnya. Weekahead: FOMC minutes dari sidang The Fed Juli 2016 akan dicermati investor di pekan ini, yang diharapkan akan memberikan titik terang mengenai seberapa besar peluang kenaikan suku bunga di bulan September dan Desember mendatang. Namun dengan kondisi bank sentral lainnya yang cenderung melonggarkan kebijakan moneternya, seperti ECB, BOJ dan BoE, maka hal ini nampaknya akan membuat The Fed lebih berhati-hati dalam mengambil keputusan untuk menaikkan suku bunganya. Data inflasi dan tenaga kerja Inggris akan dicermati untuk melihat seberapa besar tekanan yang dihadapi Inggris pasca memutuskan Brexit. Sedangkan dari Jepang akan dirilis data PDB-Q2 yang nampaknya masih akan menunjukkan pertumbuhan tahunan yang lemah, hanya 0,7%, kurang dari setengah dari pertumbuhan PDB-Q1 yang mencapai 1,9%. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH (29/Dec/89) (03/May/11) (30/Oct/07) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH (24/Jun/2015) (24/Apr/2015) (27/Apr/2015) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH (04/Jan/16) (12/Aug/16) (12/Aug/16) (11/Aug/16) (11/Aug/16) (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW (24/Jun/16) (20/Jan/16) (12/Feb/16) (20/Jan/16) (11/Feb/16) (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW (16/Jan/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (29/Sep/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW (06/Jul/50) (16/Jun/98) (31/Aug/67) (17/Jan/55) (23/Nov./82) (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 12 Agustus 2016 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI / 0.20%.N /1.10% /.SPX / 0.08%.KS /0.0% /.IXIC / 0.09%.HSI /0.83% JPY= / 0.65% /.SSEC /1.61% KRW= / 0.52% /CLc1 (Oil) / 2.76% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

2 Page 2 of 6 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV MON/08-Aug JP Bank Lending Y/Y Jul 2.1 N/A % JP Current Account NSA Jun B CN Exports YY Jul % CN Imports YY* Jul % CN Trade Balance USD* Jul % :00 US Employment Trends* Jul N/A IND N/A JP Economy Watchers Poll Jul 45.1 N/A IND 41.2 TUE/09-Aug 08:30 AU NAB Business Conditions Jul 8 N/A IND 12 08:30 AU NAB Business Confidence Jul 4 N/A IND 6 08:30 CN PPI YY* Jul % :30 CN CPI YY* Jul % :30 CN CPI MM* Jul % :00 US NFIB Business Optimism Jul 94.6 N/A IND :30 US Labor Costs Prelim Q % :30 US Productivity Prelim Q % :00 US Wholesale Inventories MM Jun % :00 US Wholesale Sales MM Jun % WED/10-Aug 06:00 KR Unemployment Rate* Jul 3.6 N/A % :50 JP Corp Goods Price MM* Jul % :50 JP Corp Goods Price YY* Jul % :50 JP Machinery Orders MM* Jun % :50 JP Machinery Orders YY* Jun % :30 AU Consumer Sentiment Aug 2.0 N/A % :00 KR L-Money Supply Growth Jun 7.3 N/A % :00 US JOLTS Job Openings* Jun M US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e M US Federal Budget Jul B 6.0 THU/11-Aug 19:30 US Import Prices MM Jul % :30 US Export Prices MM Jul % :30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e K US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e N/A K US Continued Jobless Claims w/e M N/A KR Bank of Korea Base Rate Aug % 1.25 FRI/12-Aug 04:00 KR Export Price Growth YY* Jul -7.5 N/A % :00 KR Import Price Growth YY* Jul -7.1 N/A % CN Urban Investment (ytd) Y/Y Jul % CN Industrial Output Y/Y* Jul % CN Retail Sales Y/Y* Jul % CN M2 Money Supply YY* Jul % CN New Yuan Loans* Jul B CN Outstanding Loan Growth* Jul % CN FDI (YTD)* Jul 4.3 N/A % :30 HK GDP QQ* Q2 1.6 N/A % :30 HK GDP YY* Q2 1.7 N/A % :30 US PPI Final Demand YY Jul % :30 US PPI Final Demand MM Jul % :30 US PPI exfood/energy YY Jul % :30 US PPI exfood/energy MM Jul % :30 US Retail Sales MM Jul % :30 US Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Jul % :00 US Business Inventories MM Jun % :00 US U Mich Sentiment Prelim Aug IND 90 21:00 US U Mich Conditions Prelim Aug IND :00 US U Mich Expectations Prelim Aug IND 77.8

3 Page 3 of 6 DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV 15~16 Aug 6:30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales Jul N/A % 3.1 MON/15-Aug 6:50 JP GDP QQ Q2 0.2 % 0.5 6:50 JP GDP QQ Annualised Q2 0.7 % :30 JP Industrial Output Rev* Jun N/A % :30 JP Capacity Util Idx Chg MM Jun N/A % :30 US NY Fed Manufacturing Aug 2.0 IND :00 US NAHB Housing Market Indx Aug 60 IND 59 : KR Export Growth Revised Jul N/A % : KR Import Growth Revised Jul N/A % -14 : KR Trade Balance Revised Jul N/A B 7.8 TUE/16-Aug 3:00 US Net L-T Flows,Exswaps Jun N/A B :00 US Foreign Buying, T-Bonds Jun N/A B :00 US Overall Net Capital Flow Jun N/A B -11 3:00 US Net L-T Flows,Incl.Swaps Jun N/A B :30 AU ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 14) 8:30 AU RBA Aug. Meeting Minutes 19:30 US CPI MM, SA Jul 0.0 % :30 US CPI YY, NSA Jul 0.9 % 1 19:30 US Core CPI MM, SA Jul 0.2 % :30 US Core CPI YY, NSA Jul 2.3 % :30 US CPI Index, NSA Jul IND :30 US Core CPI Index, SA Jul N/A IND :30 US Real Weekly Earnings MM Jul N/A % :30 US Building Permits: Number Jul 1.16 M :30 US Build Permits: Change MM Jul 0.6 % :30 US Housing Starts Number MM Jul 1.18 M :30 US House Starts MM: Change Jul -0.8 % :15 US Industrial Output MM Jul 0.2 % :15 US Capacity Utilization MM Jul 75.6 % :15 US Manuf Output MM Jul 0.2 % :30 US Cleveland Fed CPI Jul N/A % :30 US Fed's Lockhart Speaks to Rotary Club of Knoxville WED/17-Aug 8:30 AU Wage Price Index QQ* Q2 0.5 % 0.4 8:30 AU Wage Price Index YY* Q2 2.0 % :30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories w/e 21:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory w/e 21:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories w/e 21:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory w/e THU/18-Aug 0:00 US Fed's Bullard Speaks in St. Louis 1:00 US U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from July FOMC Meeting 6:50 JP Exports YY* Jul -14 % :50 JP Imports YY* Jul % :50 JP Trade Balance Total Yen* Jul B :30 CN China House Prices YY Jul N/A % 7.3 8:30 AU Employment* Jul 11 K 7.9 8:30 AU Full Time Employment* Jul N/A K :30 AU Participation Rate* Jul 64.9 % :30 AU Unemployment Rate* Jul 5.8 % :30 HK Unemployment Rate Jul N/A % :30 US Philly Fed Business Indx Aug 1.5 IND :30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e N/A K US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e N/A K US Continued Jobless Claims w/e N/A M :00 US Leading Index Chg MM* Jul 0.2 % 0.3 FRI/19-Aug 3:00 US Fed's Williams Speaks in Anchorage 4:00 KR PPI Growth YY* Jul N/A % :00 KR PPI Growth* Jul N/A % 0.2 6:00 JP Reuters Tankan DI Aug N/A IND 3 SAT/20-Aug 0:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count w/e n

4 Page 4 of 6 SSIamU6 (Nikkei Sep Futures) Last Trading Date: 12 Sep Reversal terjadi setelah membentuk Double Top di Target downtick di sekitar DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 12 Aug SSIpmU Aug SSIamU Aug SSIpmU Aug SSIamU UNCH UNCH Aug SSIpmU Aug SSIamU Aug SSIpmU Aug SSIamU Aug SSIpmU Aug SSIamU WEEKLY AUGUST JULY 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (12/Aug) (08/Aug) (12/Aug) (04/Aug) (21/July) (08/July) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION High 28/Apr/2016 (Reaction high) High 31/May/2016 (Peak) High 02/Jun/ Double Top Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-H chart) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET 16590

5 Page 5 of 6 KSU6 (Kospi Sep Futures) Exp. Date: 08 Sep Rebound catat level tertinggi tahun ini di Daily trend bullish, namun waspadai adanya pola Shooting Star yang berpotensi picu reversal Short-term support di sekitar DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 12 Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug WEEKLY AUGUST JULY 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (12/Aug) (08/Aug) (12/Aug) (03/Aug) (27/July) (06/July) (12/Aug) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION High 02/Jun/ High 02/Jun/ High 12/Aug/ Reaction high (1-H chart) Low 09/Aug/ Low 08/Aug/ Low 05/Aug/ Low 03/Aug/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET

6 Page 6 of 6 HSIQ6 (Hang Seng Aug Futures) Exp. Date: 30 August 2016 Reli catat level tertinggi tahun ini di Daily trend bullish, namun RSI sudah overbought (74) Short-term support di sekitar DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 12 Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug WEEKLY AUGUST JULY 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (12/Aug) (08/Aug) (12/Aug) (03/Aug) (26/July) (06/July) (12/Aug) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION High 04/Nov/2015 (Reaction high) High 05/Nov/ High 26/Nov/2015 (Reaction high) High 12/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET