MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK. Indeks Dow Jones hanya terpaut 1 poin untuk mencapai level psikologi yang untuk pertama kalinya.

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1 z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Data tingkat upah AS yang dirilis optimis mampu meredam sentimen negatif akibat rilis pesimis data payrolls dan unemployment rate. Kondisi ini mampu mendukung reli pada saham, dolar dan juga yield Treasury AS pada hari Jumat. Meskipun data non-farm payrolls dirilis lebih pesimis, namun rebound pada tingkat upah (average earnings) menunjukan berkelanjutannya momentum pasar tenaga kerja yang menentukan perekonomian untuk pertumbuhan kuat dan suku bunga lebih lanjut meningkat dari Federal Reserve tahun ini. Penguatan dolar telah menekan harga komoditas termasuk emas, namun minyak berhasil naik didukung meningkatnya aksi beli jelang akhir pekan. Indeks Dow Jones hanya terpaut 1 poin untuk mencapai level psikologi yang untuk pertama kalinya. Pekan ini investor akan cermati sejumlah data ekonomi dari AS dan Cina serta konferensi pers dari presiden terbaru AS Donald Trump untuk melihat prospek hubungan kedua negara ekonomi raksasa dunia tersebut. Trump yang akan mulai berkantor pada 20 Januari, akan melakukan konferensi pers pada hari Rabu. Investor akan mencermati setiap kemungkinan kebijakan ekonomi terhadap Cina dan juga domestik. Senin, 09 Januari 2017 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV CN Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Dec 0.80% 3.90% CN M2 Money Supply YY* Dec 11.5% 11.4% CN New Yuan Loans* Dec 700b 794.6b CN Outstanding Loan Growth* Dec 13.1% 13.1% 5:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index Dec :30 AU Building Approvals MoM Nov 4.60% % 7:30 AU Building Approvals YoY Nov -5.30% % 12:30 AU Foreign Reserves Dec -- A$69.9b 14:00 DE Industrial Production SA MoM Nov 0.60% 0.30% 14:00 DE Industrial Production WDA YoY Nov % 14:00 DE Trade Balance Nov 21.2b 20.5b 14:00 DE Current Account Balance Nov b 14:00 DE Exports SA MoM Nov 0.50% 0.50% 14:00 DE Imports SA MoM Nov 0.20% 1.30% 15:15 CH Retail Sales Real YoY Nov % 15:30 GB Halifax House Prices MoM Dec 0.20% 0.20% 15:30 GB Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year Dec 5.80% 6.00% 16:30 EZ Sentix Investor Confidence Jan :00 EZ Unemployment Rate Nov 9.80% 9.80% 21:00 US Fed's Roesengren Speaks in Hartford, Connecticut 21:50 GB Bank of England Bond Buying Operation Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta Indonesia, Phone :

2 Page 2 of 12 EUR/USD Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Reversal kembali uji lagi area setelah reli gagal berlanjut Support berikutnya di Jan Jan Jan Jan (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Dec) (20/Dec) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Low Jan Reaction low on 1-H chart Low Jan Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

3 Page 3 of 12 USD/JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Rebound terjadi setelah mampu bertahan di atas area support Rebound hadapi area resistance di Jan Jan Jan Jan (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (15/Dec) (05/Dec) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 03/Feb/ High 15/Dec/ High 04/Jan/ High 05/Jan/ Low 06/Jan/ Low 13/Dec/ Low 09/Dec/ Low 05/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 12 GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Reversal tajam dekati area support krusial di Formasi consecutive higher lows gagal Short-term resistance di sekitar Jan Jan Jan Jan (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Dec) (28/Dec) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 13/Dec/2016 (Reaction high) High 15/Dec/ Reaction high (1-H chart) High 05/Jan/2017 (Reaction high) Low 28/Dec/ Low 31/Oct/ Low 28/Oct/2016 (Reaction low) Low 25/Oct2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 12 USD/CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Rebound berkembang setelah mampu bertahan di atas area support Rebound hadapi area resistance krusial di Jan Jan Jan Jan (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (15/Dec) (08/Dec) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 27/Aug/2016 (Weekly) High 15/Dec/ High 04/Jan/ Reaction high (4-H chart) Low 30/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) Low 08/Dec/ Reaction low (4-H chart) Reaction low (4-H chart) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

6 Page 6 of 12 AUD/USD Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Area resistance di sekitar masih efektif Koreksi hadapi area support di Jan Jan Jan Jan (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (14/Dec) (23/Dec) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart High Dec Pivot line (1-D chart) Low Jan Low 02/Jan/2017 (Reaction low) Low 24/May/2016 (Bottom) Low 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction low) BUY SELL STOP LOSS

7 Page 7 of 12 NZD/USD Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Reversal berkembang, uji area support di Koreksi berikutnya hadapi area support di Jan Jan Jan Jan (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (14/Dec) (23/Dec) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 10/Nov/ High 14/Dec/2016 (Peak) High 15/Dec/ High 16/Dec/ Low 23/Dec/2016 (Bottom) Low 03/Jun/ Low 01/Jun/ Low 30/May/2016 (Bottom) BUY SELL STOP LOSS

8 Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Rebound berkembang setelah mampu bertahan di atas area trendline support Rebound hadapi area trendline resistance di sekitar Resistance krusial di Jan Jan Jan Jan (06/Jan) (05/Jan) (06/Jan) (05/Jan) (15/Dec) (05/Dec) (06/Jan) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 12/May/2016 (Peak) High 31/May/2016 (Reaction high) High 15/Dec/2016 (Peak level) High 30/Dec/2016 (Reaction high) Low 05/Jan/2017 (Reaction low) Low 29/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) Reaction low (2-H chart) Low 12/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

9 Page 9 of 12 USD/CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Koreksi terbatas dengan area trendline support masih utuh Pola ascending triangle masih dukung sinyal bullish WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (28/Dec) (14/Dec) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 25/Feb/ High 28/Dec/ High 03/Jan/ High 05/Jan/ Low 06/Jan/ Low 14/Dec/2016 (Bottom) Low 22/Sep/ Low 09/Sep/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

10 Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/USD) Koreksi berkembang setelah reli tertahan di area 1182 (23.6% Fibo. Retracement of wave )+ Koreksi hadapi area support di AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Jan Jan Jan Jan (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Dec) (15/Dec) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) High 22/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) High 28/Nov/ High 05/Jan/ Low 03/Jan/2017 (Reaction low) Low 27/Dec/ Low 15/Dec/2016 (Bottom) Low 29/Jan/2016 (Reaction low) BUY SELL STOP LOSS

11 Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/USD) Reli terhambat dengan formasi consecutive higher lows gagal berlanjut. RSI mulai turun dari zona overbought Support krusial di sekitar Sedangkan short-term resistance di sekitar Jan Jan Jan Jan (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (07/Dec) (20/Dec) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 11/Nov/ High 14/Nov/ Pivot line (1-D chart) High 15/Dec/ Low 04/Jan/ Low 03/Jan/ Pivot line Low 20/Dec/2016 (Bottom) BUY SELL STOP LOSS

12 Page 12 of 12 CLG7/USD (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Jan Reuters) Reli berlanjut hadapi resistance di Strong resistance saat ini di Short-term support di Jan Jan Jan Jan (03/Jan) (03/Jan) (03/Jan) (03/Jan) (12/Dec) (01/Dec) (03/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 02/Jul/ High 06/Jul/ High 03/Jan/ Pivot line Low 05/Jan/ Horizontal support Low 16/Dec/ Low 08/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) BUY SELL STOP LOSS