MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

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1 z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK AS & Global Markets: Harga minyak melonjak sekitar 9% di hari Rabu setelah anggota OPEC setuju untuk pangkas produksi minyak, sementara rilis optimis data ekonomi AS dan komentar dari calon Menteri Keuangan AS memicu tekanan jual pada pasar obligasi. Naiknya harga minyak dorong saham energi dan saham global, dengan Dow dan S&P 500 tembus rekor tertingginya. Meningkatnya optimisme terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi global, dipimpin oleh Amerika Serikat pada harapan pemotongan pajak dan pengeluaran pemerintah federal di bawah pemerintahan Trump, mendorong rebound menuju level puncak dekat 14 tahun. Emas terpuruk, catat kerugian bulanan terburuknya sejak medio Weekahead: Pandangan pasar akan tertuju pada referendum konstitusi yang akan diselenggarakan di Italia pada hari Minggu 4 Desember Investor takut Italia bisa terjun ke ketidakpastian politik jika Perdana Menteri proeuro Matteo Renzi gagal untuk melewati referendum konstitusi, yang bisa mendorong pengunduran diri Renzi. Sedangkan di tahun 2017 sejumlah negara Eropa juga akan mengadakan pemilu seperti Belanda, Perancis dan Jerman. Perhatian pasar kemudian akan berakhir pada rilis data pekerjaan AS (non-farm payrolls) pada hari Jumat yang diharapkan akan memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember. Kamis 01 Desember 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 06:00 KR CPI Growth* Nov 0.10% 0.1% 06:00 KR Current Account Balance* Oct N/A 7.06b 06:50 JP Business Capex (MOF) YY* Q3 N/A 3.1% 07:00 KR Exports Growth Prelim* Nov N/A -3.2% 07:00 KR Trade Balance Prelim* Nov N/A 6.97b 07:30 AU Capital Expenditure* Q3-2.5% -5.4% 07:30 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Nov N/A :30 KR Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Nov N/A :00 CN NBS Manufacturing PMI* Nov :45 CN Caixin Mfg PMI Final Nov :00 GB Nationwide House Price MM Nov 0.1% 0.0% 15:15 CH Retail Sales YY Oct N/A -2.3% 15:30 HK Retail Sales YY* Oct N/A -4.1% 15:55 DE Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI Nov :00 EZ Unemployment Rate Oct 10.0% 10.0% 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 253k 251k 20:30 US Fed's Mester Gives Opening Remarks at Financial Stability Conf 21:00 US Fed's Kaplan Speaks in San Antonio 21:30 CA RBC Manufacturing PMI SA Nov N/A :45 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Nov N/A :00 US Construction Spending MM Oct 0.5% -0.4% 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta Indonesia, Phone :

2 Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 01/09/ /12/2016 (JAK) Price 1,13 1,12 1,11 1,1 Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 35,458 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 30/11/2016; 1,0646; 1,0666; 1,0551; 1,0597 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 1,0719 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 30/11/2016; 1, ,09 1,08 1,07 1,06 1,05 Koreksi dalam harian Pergerakan dibawah bearish trend channel harian Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 30/11/2016; -0, September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (28/Nov) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (24/Nov) (03/Oct) (25/Oct) (03/May) (24/Nov) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart High 17/Nov/ Reaction high on 1-H chart Low 13/Apr/2015 (Bottom) Trendline support Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

3 Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Reli sedang uji resistance di Target uptick di (61.8% Fibo. Retracement of wave ) Area support di Waspadai RSI sudah overbought Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (30/Nov) (28/Nov) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & High 08/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) High 09/Feb/ High 10/Feb/ High 16/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) Pivot line (1-H chart) Low 30/Nov/ Low 28/Nov/ Low 23/Nov/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Formasi ascending triangle Rebound uji resistance di Trendline support disekitar Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (28/Nov) (28/Nov) (11/Nov) (01/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (24/Jun) (07/Oct) ANALYSIS & High 05/Oct/ High 11/Nov/ High 14/Nov/ Reaction high (1-H chart) Low 30/Nov/ Low 23/Nov/2016 (Reaction low) Low 18/Nov/2016 (Bottom) Low 02/Nov/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Rebound breakout , hit day high di Short-term resistance di Crucial support di sekitar Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov UNCH (30/Nov) (28/Nov) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (25/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 02/Dec/2015 (Reaction high) High 29/Jan/2016 (Peak) High 02/Feb/ High 30/Nov/ Low 22/Nov/2016 (Reaction low) Pivot line Reaction low (1-H chart) Low 14/Nov/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

6 Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 25/08/ /12/2016 (JAK) Price 0, ,765 0,76 EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 0,7486 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 30/11/2016; 0,7550 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 30/11/2016; 0,7482; 0,7497; 0,7368; RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 36,250 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 30/11/2016; -0,0225 Value Agust 16 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Des 16 0,755 0,75 0,745 0,74 0,735 0,73 Koreksi dalam harian Tekanan dekati area level terbawah harian Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (29/Nov) (30/Nov) (08/Nov) (21/Nov) (20/Oct) (13/Oct) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 11/Nov/ High 15/Nov/ High 17/Nov/ Reaction high on 1-H chart Low Nov Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) Reaction low on 1-H chart Low June 03 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

7 Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 06/09/ /12/2016 (JAK) Cndl; NZD=; Bid 30/11/2016; 0,7123; 0,7169; 0,7065; 0,7084 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 0,7104 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 30/11/2016; 0, Price 0,74 0,735 0, RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 49,286 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 30/11/2016; -0,0125 Value September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember ,725 0,72 0,715 0,71 0,705 0,7 0,695 Rangkaian naik level high harian Tapi break area bullish untuk tunjukkan tekanan harian Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (30/Nov) (28/Nov) (08/Nov) (24/Nov) (04/Oct) (13/Oct) (07/Sep) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart High 11/Nov/ High 14/Nov/ Low Nov Low 26/Jul/ Low 21/Jul/2016 (Bottom) Reaction low on 1-H chart (June 07, 16) BUY SELL STOP LOSS

8 Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Rebound berlanjut hadapi resistance di Waspadai RSI di zona overbought Area support di Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (30/Nov) (29/Nov) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (06/Oct) (21/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & High 31/May/2016 (Reaction high) High 01/Jun/ High 07/Jun/2016 (Peak) High 24/Jun/2016 (Peak) Reaction low (1-H chart) Low 30/Nov/ Pivot line Low 23/Nov/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

9 Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Koreksi sedang uji area support di Short-term support di Crucial resistance di sekitar WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE (28/Nov) (30/Nov) (14/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (19/Oct) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 24/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) High 25/Feb/ High 14/Nov/ High 18/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) Pivot line Low 21/Oct/ Low 20/Oct/ Low 19/Oct/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

10 Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 31/08/ /12/2016 (JAK) Price Ozs Cndl; XAU=; Bid 30/11/2016; 1.188,3199; 1.194,9500; 1.170,3500; 1.173,3100 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 1.217,6518 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 30/11/2016; RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 21,440 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 30/11/2016; -86,3701 Value Ozs September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Des Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Pelemahan dalam hourly Perhatikan RSI harian dekati area jenuh jual AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (28/Nov) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (30/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (06/Jul) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & High Nov High Nov Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1- H chart Reaction low on 1- H chart Reaction low on 1- H chart Reaction low on 1- H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

11 Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= Cndl; XAG=; Bid 30/11/2016; 16,6160; 16,7660; 16,3900; 16,4900 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 16,9828 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 30/11/2016; 17, /09/ /12/2016 (JAK) Price Ozs 19, , , ,5 Koreksi dalam harian Perhatikan RSI dekat area jenuh RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 35,140 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 30/11/2016; -2,0600 Value September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Des Nov Nov FLAT Nov Nov Nov (28/Nov) (29/Nov) (09/Nov) (23/Nov) (03/Oct) (06/Oct) (04/Jul) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart High 14/Nov/ High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Low 07/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) Low 01/Jun/2016 (Bottom) Low 11/Apr/2016 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

12 Page 12 of 12 CLF7/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Dec Reuters) Daily CLF7 07/09/ /12/2016 (JAK) Cndl; CLF7; Trade Price 30/11/2016; 45,24; 49,90; 45,22; 49,05 WMA; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 55 30/11/2016; 47,78 EMA; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 47, Price Bbl RSI; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 61,976 Value Mom; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 14 Bbl 30/11/2016; 3,11 Value September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Naik untuk dekati level tertinggi Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (30/Nov) (29/Nov) (30/Nov) (14/Nov) (19/Oct) (31/Oct) (09/Jun) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & High Oct High Oct High Oct High Nov Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) BUY SELL STOP LOSS