MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

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1 z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK AS & Global Markets: Ketiga indeks utama Wall Street ditutup di level rekor tertinggi untuk 2 hari berturut-turut pada hari Selasa, sementara saham Eropa juga menguat oleh ekspektasi bahwa pasar dunia akan diuntungkan oleh kebijakan presiden terpilih AS Donald Trump. Kenaikan moderat memicu Dow ditutup di atas dan S&P 500 berakhir di atas 2200 untuk pertama kalinya, sementara Nasdaq dan small-cap Russell 2000 juga tembus level rekor penutupan tertingginya untuk dua hari berturut-turut. Minyak masih bergerak fluktuatif jelang sidang OPEC di Wina, Austria, pada 30 November mendatang. menguat terhadap yen setelah tembus intraday high di yen, hanya sedikit di bawah level tertinggi hampir 6 tahun yang dicapai hari Senin di yen, menyusul data AS menunjukkan peningkatan pada existing home sales bulan lalu. Sementara harga emas menurun seiring berkurangnya minat pada aset safe-haven. Weekahead: Pekan ini Menteri Keuangan Inggris Philip Hammond akan menawarkan rencana perusahaan dan pandangan pada ekonomi Inggris yang sedang mempersiapkan diri untuk pembicaraan Brexit dengan Autumn Statement kepada parlemen pada Rabu. Tidak lagi mencari surplus anggaran oleh 2019/20, pemerintah Inggris akan mengumumkan penambahan belanja untuk jalan dan kereta api. Di benua Eropa, data Ifo Business Jerman akan dicermati yang kemungkinan cukup stabil yang tidak berubah dari level tertinggi 2-1/2 tahun yang dicapai di bulan Oktober. Indeks PMI sektor manufaktur dan jasa juga akan dicermati yang diharapkan untuk menunjukkan kelanjutan dari pertumbuhan moderat di seluruh Eropa setelah terguncang pasca-brexit. Kebanyakan negara besar akan menunggu sampai Desember untuk panel pengaturan suku bunga bank sentral mereka. Komite kebijakan moneter akan berlangsung di Hongaria, Afrika Selatan dan Turki pekan ini, meskipun tidak terlihat akan adanya perubahan suku bunga. Rabu 23 November 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 07:30 AU Construction Work Done* Q3-1.7 % :30 DE Markit Manufacturing Flash PMI Nov 54.7 ind :30 US Build Permits R Number MM Oct N/A m :30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 250 k :30 US Durable Goods Oct 1.5 % :30 US Non defense Cap Ex-Air Oct 0.4 % :00 US Monthly Home Price MM Sep N/A % :45 US Markit Mfg PMI Flash Nov 53.4 ind :00 US U Michigan Sentiment Final Nov 91.6 ind :00 US New Home Sales-Units Oct m :30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e m :30 US EIA Weekly Distilled Stocks w/e m All Day JP Labour Thanksgiving Day/Bank Holiday Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta Indonesia, Phone :

2 Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 17/08/ /11/2016 (JAK) Price 1,13 1,12 Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 22,992 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 22/11/2016; 1,0625; 1,0658; 1,0581; 1,0625 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 1,0820 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; ,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 1,07 1,06 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Rangkaian naik level high harian Perhatikan RSI dekat area jenuh jual Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 22/11/2016; -0, Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Nov FLAT Nov Nov Nov Nov (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (18/Nov) (03/Oct) (25/Oct) (03/May) (18/Nov) ANALYSIS & High 10/Nov/ High 14/Nov/ High 17/Nov/ Reaction high on 1-H chart Low Nov Low 03/Dec/2015 (Bottom) Low 14/Apr/ Low 13/Apr/2015 (Bottom) BUY SELL STOP LOSS

3 Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Reli tertahan di sekitar area (Horizontal resistance) RSI sudah overbought Short-term support di sekitar Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (21/Nov) (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & High 29/Mar/ High 01/Apr/ High 25/Apr/2016 (Peak) High 30/May/2016 (Peak) Low 22/Nov/ Low 18/Nov/ Low 17/Nov/ Low 15/Nov/2016 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Koreksi hadapi trendline support di sekitar Formasi symmetrical triangle berpotensi batasi pergerakan Short-term support di sekitar Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (11/Nov) (01/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (24/Jun) (07/Oct) ANALYSIS & High 05/Oct/ High 11/Nov/ High 14/Nov/ High 22/Nov/ Low 18/Nov/2016 (Bottom) Low 02/Nov/ Low 31/Oct/ Low 28/Oct/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Masih menguji area RSI sudah overbought Short-term support di Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (22/Nov) (22/Nov) (22/Nov) (09/Nov) (25/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 02/Dec/2015 (Reaction high) High 29/Jan/2016 (Peak) High 02/Feb/ High 03/Feb/ Low 18/Nov/ Reaction low (1-H chart) Low 14/Nov/ Low 10/Nov/2016 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

6 Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 02/09/ /11/2016 (JAK) Price 0,77 0,765 0,76 EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 0,7531 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 0,7583 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 22/11/2016; 0,7368; 0,7413; 0,7352; 0, RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 30,962 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 22/11/2016; -0,0264 Value September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember ,755 0,75 0,745 0,74 0,735 0,73 Terjadi koreksi dalam harian Dapat break area bearish trend channel harian Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (08/Nov) (21/Nov) (20/Oct) (13/Oct) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 11/Nov/ High 15/Nov/ High 17/Nov/ Reaction high on 1-H chart Low Nov Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) Low 16/Jun/2016 (Bottom) Low 02/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) BUY SELL STOP LOSS

7 Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 06/09/ /11/2016 (JAK) Cndl; NZD=; Bid 22/11/2016; 0,7063; 0,7085; 0,7028; 0,7064 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 0,7141 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 0, Price 0,74 0,735 0, RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 37,026 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 22/11/2016; -0,0220 Value September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember ,725 0,72 0,715 0,71 0,705 0,7 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Jauhi area bearish trend channel harian Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (08/Nov) (21/Nov) (04/Oct) (13/Oct) (07/Sep) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 10/Nov/ High 11/Nov/ High 14/Nov/ High Nov Low 26/Jul/ Low 21/Jul/2016 (Bottom) Low 07/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) Low 03/Jun/2016 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

8 Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Reli tembus area 118, hit day high di Reli hadapi resistance berikutnya di sekitar Waspadai RSI sudah overbought Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (22/Nov) (09/Nov) (06/Oct) (21/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & High 01/Jun/ High 07/Jun/2016 (Peak) High 24/Jun/2016 (Peak) High 21/Jul/2016 (Peak) Pivot line Low 17/Nov/2016 (Reaction low) Low 14/Nov/ Low 10/Nov/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

9 Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Koreksi tembus area lowerline of bullish channel, hit day low di Short-term support di sekitar Formasi consecutive lower highs dukung sinyal downtrend WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE (21/Nov) (22/Nov) (14/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (19/Oct) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 24/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) High 25/Feb/ High 14/Nov/ High 21/Nov/ Pivot line Low 21/Oct/ Low 20/Oct/ Low 19/Oct/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

10 Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 12/09/ /11/2016 (JAK) Price Ozs Cndl; XAU=; Bid 22/11/2016; 1.213,8400; 1.221,0601; 1.205,8600; 1.211,9000 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 1.245,0461 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 25,828 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 22/11/2016; -84,9900 Value September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Jauhi area bearish trend channel harian AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (18/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (06/Jul) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 11/Nov/ Reaction high (1-H chart) High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) High Nov Low Nov Low Nov Low 30/May/2016 (Bottom) Low 10/Feb/2016 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

11 Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 19/09/ /11/2016 (JAK) Price Ozs 19, ,5 Cndl; XAG=; Bid 22/11/2016; 16,5880; 16,8900; 16,5100; 16,6200 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 17,3930 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 17,7602 RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 25,768 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 22/11/2016; -1,8200 Value September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember , ,5 16 Break area bearish trend channel harian Perhatikan RSI dekat area jenuh jual Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (18/Nov) (03/Oct) (06/Oct) (04/Jul) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 11/Nov/ High 14/Nov/ High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) Reaction high on 1-H chart Low Nov Low 07/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) Low 01/Jun/2016 (Bottom) Low 11/Apr/2016 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

12 Page 12 of 12 CLF7/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Dec Reuters) Daily CLF7 30/08/ /11/2016 (JAK) Cndl; CLF7; Trade Price 22/11/2016; 48,37; 49,20; 47,17; 47,91 WMA; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 47,96 EMA; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 46, Price Bbl RSI harian jauhi area jenuh jual Dekati level tertinggi RSI; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 62,138 Value Bbl Mom; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 14 22/11/2016; 1,98 Value September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember Nov 22 (CLF7) Nov 21 (CLF7) Nov 18 (CLF7) Nov 17 (CLF7) Nov 17 (CLZ6) Nov (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (22/Nov) (14/Nov) (19/Oct) (31/Oct) (09/Jun) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart High 31/Oct/ Low Nov Low Nov Reaction low (1-H chart) Low 15/Nov/2016 BUY SELL STOP LOSS