MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

Transkripsi

1 z Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Harga minyak terkonsolidasi setelah tembus di atas $50 per barel untuk pertama kalinya selama sekitar 7 bulan, sementara bursa AS ditutup hampir datar pasca reli tajamnya selama 2 hari. Minyak berjangka telah naik hampir 90% dari level terendah 12 tahun yang ditembusnya pada musim dingin tahun ini. Indeks dolar melemah 0,2% setelah rilis data durable goods orders menjadikan ketidakpastian kenaikan suku bunga Fed. Order untuk barang tahan lama AS (durable goods orders) memang meningkat di bulan April, namun minat belanja bisnis AS melemah untuk bulan ketiga berturut-turut di tengah lesunya permintaan untuk mesin. Fokus perhatian pasar saat ini tertuju pada Kepala Fed Janet Yellen yang akan memberikan pernyataan di sebuah acara panel yang diselenggarakan oleh Harvard University pada hari Jumat ini, hari dimana data revisi pertama PDB-Q1 AS dan sentimen konsumen AS dirilis. Jumat 27 Mei 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV JP CPI Core Nationwide YY Apr -0.4 % JP CPI Overall Nationwide Apr N/A % JP CPI Core Tokyo YY May -0.4 % JP CPI Overall Tokyo May N/A % CH Non-Farm Payrolls Q1 N/A M US Corporate Profits Prelim Q1 N/A % US GDP 2nd Estimate Q1 0.9 % US GDP Sales Prelim Q1 1.1 % US GDP Deflator Prelim Q1 0.7 % US PCE Prices Prelim Q1 0.3 % US UoM Sentiment Final May 95.4 IND 95.8 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta Indonesia (021) Fax (021)

2 Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 21/01/ /06/2016 (GMT) Cndl; EUR=; Bid 27/05/2016; 1,1192; 1,1198; 1,1186; 1,1189 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 27/05/2016; 1,1265 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 27/05/2016; 1, Price 1,15 1,14 1,13 1, ,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 1,07 Jauhi level terendah harian Mengarah pada puncak trendline RSI naik Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 27/05/2016; 36,607 Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 27/05/2016; -0, Jan 16 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May May May May FLAT May (23/May) (25/May) (03/May) (25/May) (12/Apr) (25/Apr) (03/May) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May Reaction high on 1-H chart High May High May Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on daily chart Low Jan Low Jan 05 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

3 Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP) Bullish trend channel Target uptick di Trendline support di Support kunci di May May May May May (25/May) (23/May) (20/May) (03/May) (01/Apr) (29/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 01/Apr/ Horizontal resistance Pivot line (1-H chart) High 20/May/2016 (Peak) Low 23/May/2016 (Reaction low) Horizontal support (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-H chart) Low 09/May/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Reli berlanjut mendekati Key Resistance di (SMA200) Target uptick di May May May May May (26/May) (23/May) (03/May) (16/May) (29/Apr) (06/Apr) (04/Jan) (29/Feb) ANALYSIS & Pivot line High 29/Dec/ High 04/Jan/2016 (Reaction high) High 03/May/2016 (Peak) Low 25/May/ Low 24/May/ Low 18/May/ Low 16/May/2016 (Bottom) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Daily trend bullish namun RSI mulai turun dari zona overbought Support kunci di May May May May May UNCH (25/May) (26/May) (25/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (12/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 02/Feb/ High 03/Feb/ High 10/Mar/2016 (Peak) The level of psychology Pivot line Low 13/May/ Low 06/May/ Low 05/May/2016 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

6 Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 26/01/ /06/2016 (GMT) EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 27/05/2016; 0,7320 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 27/05/2016; 0,7449 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 27/05/2016; 0,7225; 0,7228; 0,7216; 0, Price 0,78 0,77 0, , ,74 0,73 0,72 0,71 0,7 0,69 0,68 Penguatan mulai terlihat dalam harian Dukungan RSI yang naik, perhatikan dekati area jenuh jual RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 27/05/2016; 35,816 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 27/05/2016; -0,0091 Value Jan 16 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May May May May May (23/May) (24/May) (03/May) (24/May) (20/Apr) (07/Apr) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May Reaction high on daily chart High May Reaction high on 1-H chart Low May Reaction low on daily chart Reaction low on daily chart Reaction low on daily chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

7 Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 20/01/ /06/2016 (GMT) Cndl; NZD=; Bid 27/05/2016; 0,6738; 0,6742; 0,6734; 0,6739 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 27/05/2016; 0,6786 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 27/05/2016; 0, Price 0,705 0,7 0,695 0,69 0, ,68 0,675 0,67 0,665 0,66 0,655 0,65 0,645 Pergerakan menuju level bawah trendline harian RSI dekati area jenuh jual Chart last price RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 27/05/2016; 37,913 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 27/05/2016; -0,0027 Value Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May May May May May (23/May) (26/May) (03/May) (26/May) (19/Apr) (05/Apr) (19/Apr) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May High May High May High May Low May Reaction low on daily chart Reaction low on daily chart Low Feb 03 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

8 Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP) Pola symmetrical triangle masih cukup efektif Berpotensi bergerak di kisaran May May May May May (23/May) (26/May) (12/May) (06/May) (01/Apr) (18/Apr) (29/Jan) (06/May) ANALYSIS & Pivot line Pivot line High 17/May/2016 (Reaction high) High 23/May/ Low 09/May/ Low 06/May/2016 (Bottom) Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom) Low 25/Feb/2016 (Bottom) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

9 Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Formasi consecutive lower highs Koreksi sedang uji area 1.29 Key support di sekitar Strong support di WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE (24/May) (26/May) (24/May) (03/May) (05/Apr) (29/Apr) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 16/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) High 24/Mar/2016 (Peak) High 05/Apr/2016 (Peak) High 25/May/ Low 18/May/ Low 17/May/2016 (Reaction low) Low 12/May/2016 (Reaction low) Low 04/May/2016 BUY --- SELL STOP LOSS

10 Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= /02/ /06/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs Cndl; XAU=; Bid 26/05/2016; 1.223,0000; 1.233,6100; 1.218,1500; 1.219,7500 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 26/05/2016; 1.251,8984 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 26/05/2016; 1.252,8042 RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 26/05/2016; 22,794 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 26/05/2016; -68,5500 Value Ozs Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei Penguatan dapat lanjut dalam harian Perhatikan RSI masuk area jenuh jual AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) May May May May May (23/May) (25/May) (02/May) (25/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May High May Reaction high on 1-H chart High May Low Apr Reaction low on daily chart Pivot Line Reaction low on daily chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

11 Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 16/03/ /05/2016 (GMT) Cndl; XAG=; Bid 26/05/2016; 16,2600; 16,5630; 16,1900; 16,3000 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 26/05/2016; 16,7060 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 26/05/2016; 16, Price Ozs 17, , RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 26/05/2016; 31,972 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 26/05/2016; -1,1520 Value Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei , ,5 Jauhi level terendah sebelumnya RSI flat May FLAT May May May May (23/May) (25/May) (02/May) (25/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May High May High May High May Low May Low Apr Low Apr Low Apr 12 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

12 Page 12 of 12 CLN6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 21 Jun Reuters) Daily CLN6 04/03/ /06/2016 (NYC) Cndl; CLN6; Trade Price 26/05/2016; 49,70; 50,21; 49,22; 49,40 WMA; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 55 26/05/2016; 45,44 EMA; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 20 26/05/2016; 47, RSI; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 26/05/2016; 69,325 Value Bbl Mom; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 14 26/05/2016; 4,08 Value Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Price Bbl Berlanjut dapat break area puncak trend channel harian Rangkaian naik level highlow harian Waspadai RSI telah jenuh beli May May May May May (26/May) (23/May) (26/May) (10/May) (29/Apr) (05/Apr) (26/May) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on daily chart High Oct 12, Reaction high on daily chart High Nov 05, Low May Low May Low May Low May 12 BUY SELL STOP LOSS