ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Transkripsi

1 ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 6 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Bursa saham Asia jatuh pada hari Kamis dan dolar perkasa setelah pasar melihat faktor yang dapat mempercepat Federal Reserve AS menaikkan suku bunga pada Juni mendatang, sementara emas tersungkur. Indeks MSCI Asia-pasifik diluar Jepang turun 1%, menyusul prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS yang kedua dalam 6 bulan menambah kekhawatiran di pasar berkembang yang tengah bergulat menghadapi pelambatan ekonomi Cina. Bursa Korea Selatan dan Australia pimpin pelemahan bursa regional setelah masing-masing catat penurunan 0,6% dan 0,8%. Nikkei awalnya menguat berkat melemahnya yen yang turun ke level terendah 3 pekan terhadap dolar setelah FOMC minutes, namun kemudian pangkas keuntungan dan hanya ditutup menguat 0,2%. Eropa: Bursa Eropa turun pada hari Kamis menyusul turunnya harga minyak dan logam tekan saham komoditas dan perhatian meningkat bahwa The Fed akan segera menaikkan suku bunga. Indeks FTSEurofirst 300 turun 1,2%. Saham Inggris jatuh pada hari Kamis setelah hilangnya sebuah penerbangan EgyptAir dan penurunan pemesanan musim panas untuk Thomas Cook (maskapai penerbangan charter yang berbasis di Manchester) membebani sektor wisata, sementara saham pertambangan juga melemah. Indeks FTSE 100 terkoreksi 112,45 poin atau 1,8% ke 6053,35. AS & Global Markets: Bursa saham global turun pada hari Kamis, sementara dolar menguat, menekan harga minyak dan komoditas, setelah investor melihat kemungkinan The Fed menaikkan suku bunganya dalam waktu dekat ini. Pernyataan Presiden Fed New York William Dudley semalam yang mengatakan ekonomi dapat cukup kuat untuk menjamin kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juni atau Juli kian memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Fed pasca rilis FOMC minutes di hari Rabu sebelumnya. Laporan CME FedWatch menunjukkan peluang sebesar 32% bagi Fed menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juni, naik dari 15% ekspektasinya di hari Selasa sebelumnya. Sementara mayoritas pelaku pasar saat ini memprediksi kenaikan di bulan Juli. Bursa global merosot 0,9%, catat penurunan dalam 3 sesi berturut-turut. Harga emas turun 0,4% dan sentuh level terendah 3 pekan. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH (29/Dec/89) (03/May/11) (30/Oct/07) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH (24/Jun/2015) (24/Apr/2015) (27/Apr/2015) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH (04/Jan/16) (20/Apr/16) (04/Jan/16) (20/Apr/16) (20/Apr/16) (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW (12/Feb/16) (20/Jan/16) (12/Feb/16) (20/Jan/16) (11/Feb/16) (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW (16/Jan/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (29/Sep/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW (06/Jul/50) (16/Jun/98) (31/Aug/67) (17/Jan/55) (23/Nov./82) (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 19 Mei 2016 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI / 0.52%.N /0.01% /.SPX / 0.37%.KS /0.33% /.IXIC / 0.56%.HSI /0.67% JPY= / 0.21% /.SSEC /0.01% KRW= / 0.14% /CLc1(Oil) / 0.06% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

2 Page 2 of 6 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV MON/16-May N/A KR Export Growth Revised Apr N/A % N/A KR Import Growth Revised Apr N/A % N/A KR Trade Balance Revised Apr 8.8 N/A B JP Corp Goods Price MM Apr % JP Corp Goods Price YY Apr % US NY Fed Manufacturing May IND US NAHB Housing Market Idx May IND US Net L-T Flows Exswaps Mar 78.1 N/A B US Foreign Buying T-Bonds Mar 23.6 N/A B US Overall Net Capital Flow Mar N/A B US Net L-T Flows Incl. Swaps Mar 64.6 N/A B TUE/17-May AU New Motor Vehicle Sales Apr -2.5 N/A % AU RBA Minutes JP Industrial Output Rev Mar % JP Capacity Util. Idx Chg. MM Mar 3.2 N/A % HK Unemployment Rate Apr 3.4 N/A % US CPI MM SA Apr % US CPI YY NSA Apr % US Core CPI MM SA Apr % US Core CPI YY NSA Apr % US CPI Index NSA Apr IND US Core CPI Index SA Apr N/A IND US Real Weekly Earnings MM Apr 0.2 N/A % US Building Permits: Number Apr M US Build Permits: Chg. MM Apr % US Housing Starts Number MM Apr M US House Starts MM: Chg. Apr % US Industrial Output MM Apr % US Capacity Utilization MM Apr % US Manuf Output MM Apr % US Cleveland Fed CPI Apr 0.3 N/A % 0.2 WED/18-May JP GDP QQ Q % JP GDP QQ Annualised Q % JP GDP QQ Pvt Consump Prelim Q % JP GDP QQ Capital Expend Q % JP GDP QQ External Demand Q % CN China House Prices YY Apr 6.2 N/A % AU Wage Price Index QQ Q % AU Wage Price Index YY Q % US EIA Crude Inventories w/e M US FOMC Minutes THU/19-May KR PPI Growth YY Apr -3.1 N/A % KR PPI Growth Apr 0.2 N/A % JP Machinery Orders MM Mar % JP Machinery Orders YY Mar % AU Employment Apr K AU Full Time Employment Apr -9.3 N/A K AU Participation Rate Apr % AU Unemployment Rate Apr % US Initial Jobless Claims W/E K US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E N/A K US Continued Jobless Claims W/E M US National Activity Index Apr 0.10 N/A IND US Philly Fed Business Index May IND US Philly Fed Employment May -3.3 N/A IND US Philly Fed Prices Paid May 15.7 N/A IND US Leading Index Chg MM Apr %

3 Page 3 of US FOMC Dudley Speaks FRI/20-May US Existing Home Sales Apr 5.40 M US Exist. Home Sales % Chg. Apr 1.3 % 5.1 (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX-

4 ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 4 of 6 SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) Last Trading Date: 13 Jun Trendline resistance di sekitar masih cukup efektif meredam rebound Target uptick di Support kunci di DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 19 May SSIpmM May SSIamM May SSIpmM May SSIamM May SSIpmM May SSIamM May SSIpmM May SSIamM May SSIpmM May SSIamM WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (19/May) (16/May) (19/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (07/Apr) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION Pivot line (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-D chart) High 19/May/ Trendline resistance Reaction low on 1-H chart Low 13/May/ Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET 16390

5 Page 5 of 6 KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) Exp. Date: 09 Jun Area support kunci di sekitar masih utuh RSI sudah oversold (23) Waspadai adanya pola Doji star! DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 19 May May May May May WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (16/May) (18/May) (02/May) (16/May) (20/Apr) (08/Apr) (20/Apr) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION Pivot line High 11/May/ High 13/May/ High 16/May/ Pivot line Low 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction low) Low 22/Feb/2016 (Bottom) Low 17/Feb/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS TARGET

6 Page 6 of 6 HSIK6 (Hang Seng May Futures) Exp. Date: 30 May 2016 Area support di sedang diuji Daily trend cenderung bearish, namun RSI sudah oversold (27) Waspadai koreksi terbatas! DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 19 May May May May May May WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (17/May) (16/May) (03/May) (13/May) (21/Apr) (08/Apr) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION High 17/May/2016 (Reaction high) Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Pivot line (1-D chart) Low 02/Mar/ Low 01/Mar/ Low 26/Feb/2016 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET