Daily Outlook Email: research@valbury.com Twitter: @researchvaf Page 1 of 7 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Saham Asia catat kenaikan tipis pada hari Selasa menyusul ekspektasi bahwa Beijing akan mempertahankan dukungan untuk ekonominya menjelang sebuah kongres utama mendukung saham China dan harga logam, namun kekhawatiran tentang Korea Utara membuat banyak investor menahan diri. Indeks saham Asia Pasifik MSCI diluar Jepang naik 0,2 persen berkat kenaikan saham China, meski banyak pasar berada di zona merah. Nikkei Jepang turun 0,6 persen karena kekhawatiran bahwa Korea Utara mungkin akan melakukan lebih banyak provokasi. Media mengatakan Korea Utara tampaknya sedang mempersiapkan uji coba rudal balistik selanjutnya. Indeks komposit Shanghai saham China daratan mencapai tingkat tertinggi sejak Januari 2016, karena pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pendapatan yang solid di China dalam beberapa bulan terakhir dan harapan bahwa Beijing tidak akan mentolerir gangguan menjelang Kongres Partai Komunis penting pada pertengahan Oktober. Eropa: Saham Eropa turun tipis pada hari Selasa terseret oleh kerugian di sektor keuangan karena kekhawatiran atas Korea Utara dan sikap hati-hati sebelum pertemuan kebijakan Bank Sentral Eropa besok. Indeks STOXX 600 Eropa turun 0,1 persen, melepaskan sedikit keuntungan yang terlihat pada sesi sebelumnya, sementara blue chip zona euro turun 0,3 persen. Bank-bank zona euro turun 1,6 persen ke tingkat terendah dalam sekitar 10 minggu, dengan sektor kembali fokus menjelang pertemuan ECB hari Kamis untuk melihat waktu pelepasan stimulus besar. ECB diperkirakan akan mengumumkan akhir dari stimulus senilai 2 triliun euro ($ 2,38 triliun) plus skema pembelian obligasi di tahun ini, meskipun kekhawatiran di kalangan pembuat kebijakan mengenai euro yang kuat telah memicu ekspektasi stimulus tidak akan ditarik dengan cepat. Saham Banco Santander, BNP Paribas, UniCredit dan Deutsche Bank turun antara 1,7 dan 1,9 persen. AS & Global Markets: Saham Wall Street jatuh pada hari Selasa, imbal hasil Treasury mencatat penurunan satu hari terberat mereka sejak Mei dan dolar tergelincir karena investor menghindari risiko menyusul uji coba bom nuklir terbesar Korea Utara. Penurunan di pasar utama A.S., yang telah ditutup untuk liburan Hari Buruh di hari Senin, mengikuti aksi jual global hari itu di tengah kecaman internasional atas uji coba nuklir hari Minggu. Pernyataan oleh Gubernur Federal Reserve Lael Brainard, yang mengatakan inflasi "masih jauh" dari target dan menyarankan bank sentral A.S. harus berhati-hati dalam menaikkan suku bunga, juga turut menekan dolar. Dolar turun sebanyak 1 persen terhadap yen Jepang dan berada di jalur untuk penurunan tertajamnya dalam delapan hari terhadap sejumlah rival utamanya. Pasar A.S. juga cemas tentang Irma, yang dinilai sebagai topan Kategori 5 yang berbahaya, yang bisa sampai ke Amerika Serikat bagian selatan akhir pekan ini hanya beberapa hari setelah Harvey yang menyebabkan kerusakan yang diperkirakan mencapai miliaran dolar di Texas dan Louisiana. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 309.32 (29/May/2017) 31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 21169.11 (01/Mar/2017) 2400.98 (01/Mar/2017) 6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2016 HIGH 19592.90 (21/Dec/16) 264.42 (21/Dec/16) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2017 HIGH 20318.11 (20/June/2017) 322.16 (25/Jul/2017) 28127.90 (30/Aug/2017) 22179.11 (08/Aug/2017) 2490.87 (08/Aug/2017) 3390.82330 (05/Sep/2017) 2017 LOW 18224.68 (17/Apr/2017) 258.64 (02/Jan/2017) 21883.82 (03/Jan/2017) 19677.94 (19/Jan/2017) 2245.13 (03/Jan/2017) 3016.53050 (11/May/2017) 2016 LOW 14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96 (16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55) 132.93 (23/Nov./82) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 05 September 2017 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI 21753.31 234.25/ 1.07%.N225 19385.81 122.44/0.63% /.SPX 2457.85 18.70/ 0.75%.KS200 304.06 0.13/0.04% /.IXIC 6375.574 59.757/ 0.93%.HSI 27741.35 1.09/0% JPY= 108.80 0.92/ 0.84% /.SSEC 3385.12930 5.54630/0.16% KRW= 1131.52 0.87/ 0.08% /CLc1 (Oil) 48.62 1.33/2.81% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Page 2 of 7 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV. 31-Aug - 07-Sep N/A JP Official Reserve Assets Aug -- $1260.0b Mon/04-Sep-17 06:50 JP Monetary Base YoY Aug 16.3% 15.6% 15.6% 06:50 JP Monetary Base End of period Aug 469.2t -- 468.3t 08:00 AU Melbourne Institute Inflation MoM Aug 0.1% -- 0.1% 08:00 AU Melbourne Institute Inflation YoY Aug 2.6% -- 2.7% 15:30 EZ Sentix Investor Confidence Sep 28.2 27.4 27.7 15:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Aug 51.1 52 51.9 16:00 EZ PPI MoM Jul 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% -0.2% 16:00 EZ PPI YoY Jul 2.0% 2.1% 2.5% 2.4% All Day CA Bank Holiday/Labour Day All Day US Bank Holiday/Labor Day Tue/05-Sep-17 06:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Services Aug 54.2 -- 57 06:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Composite Aug 54.1 -- 56.7 06:00 KR BoP Current Account Balance Jul $7020m -- $5080m 06:00 KR BoP Goods Balance Jul - -- $9706m 06:30 AU AiG Perf of Services Index Aug 53.0 -- 56.4 07:30 HK Nikkei Hong Kong PMI Aug 49.7 -- 51.3 07:30 JP Nikkei Japan PMI Services Aug 51.6 -- 52 07:30 JP Nikkei Japan PMI Composite Aug 51.9 -- 51.8 08:30 AU BoP Current Account Balance 2Q -A$9.6b -A$7.5b -A$3.1b -A$4.8b 08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Composite Aug 52.4 -- 51.9 08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Services Aug 52.7 -- 51.5 N/A AU RBA Governor Lowe's Remarks at Board Dinner 11:30 AU RBA Cash Rate Target Sep-05 1.50% 1.5% 1.5% 12:45 CH GDP QoQ 2Q 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 12:45 CH GDP YoY 2Q 0.3% 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 14:15 CH CPI EU Harmonized MoM Aug -0.1% -- 0.1% 14:15 CH CPI EU Harmonized YoY Aug 0.5% -- 0.6% 14:15 CH CPI MoM Aug 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% 14:15 CH CPI YoY Aug 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 14:55 DE Markit Germany Services PMI Aug F 53.5 53.4 53.4 14:55 DE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Aug F 55.8 55.7 55.7 15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Services PMI Aug F 54.7 54.9 54.9 15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Aug F 55.7 55.8 55.8 55.7 15:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Aug 53.2 53.5 53.8 15:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Aug 54.0 54.0 54.1 16:00 EZ Retail Sales MoM Jul -0.3% -0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 16:00 EZ Retail Sales YoY Jul 2.6% 2.6% 3.1% 3.3% 18:30 US Fed's Brainard Speaks to The Economic Club of New York 21:00 US Factory Orders Jul -3.3% -3.3% 3.0% 3.2% 21:00 US Factory Orders Ex Trans Jul 0.5% -- -0.2% 0.1% 21:00 US Durable Goods Orders Jul F -6.8% -2.9% -6.8% 21:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Jul F 0.6% -- 0.5% 21:00 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Jul F 1.0% -- 0.4% 21:00 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Jul F 1.2% -- 1.0% Wed/06-Sep-17 00:10 US Fed's Kashkari Holds Townhall Event in Minneapolis 06:00 US Fed's Kaplan Speaks in Dallas 07:00 JP Labor Cash Earnings YoY Jul -- -0.4% 07:00 JP Real Cash Earnings YoY Jul -- -0.8% 08:30 AU GDP SA QoQ 2Q 0.8% 0.3% 08:30 AU GDP YoY 2Q 1.8% 1.7% 09:30 AU RBA's Heath Gives Speech in Tasmania 13:00 DE Factory Orders MoM Jul 0.1% 1.0% 13:00 DE Factory Orders WDA YoY Jul -- 5.1% 14:30 DE Markit Germany Construction PMI Aug -- 55.8 15:10 EZ Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Aug -- 51 15:10 DE Markit Germany Retail PMI Aug -- 50.7
Page 3 of 7 19:30 US Trade Balance Jul -$44.6b -$43.6b 20:45 US Markit US Services PMI Aug F -- 56.9 20:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Aug F -- 56 21:00 CA Bank of Canada Rate Decision Sep-06 0.75% 0.75% 21:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Aug 55 53.9 Thu/07-Sep-17 01:00 US U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 06:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index Aug -- 60.5 08:30 AU Retail Sales MoM Jul 0.3% 0.3% 08:30 AU Trade Balance Jul A$875m A$856m N/A CN Foreign Reserves Aug -- $3080.7b 12:00 JP Leading Index CI Jul P -- 105.9 12:00 JP Coincident Index Jul P -- 117.1 13:00 DE Industrial Production SA MoM Jul 0.6% -1.1% 13:00 DE Industrial Production WDA YoY Jul -- 2.4% 15:30 HK Foreign Reserves Aug -- $413.3b 16:00 EZ GDP SA QoQ 2Q F 0.6% 0.6% 16:00 EZ GDP SA YoY 2Q F 2.2% 2.2% 18:45 EZ ECB Main Refinancing Rate Sep-07 0.0% 0.0% 18:45 EZ ECB Marginal Lending Facility Sep-07 -- 0.25% 18:45 EZ ECB Deposit Facility Rate Sep-07-0.4% -0.4% 18:45 EZ ECB Asset Purchase Target Sep -- EU60b 19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-02 -- 236k 19:30 US Continuing Claims Aug-26 -- 1942k 19:30 US Productivity Revised 2Q F 1.0% 0.9% 19:30 US Labor Costs Revised 2Q F 0.5% 0.6% 21:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA Aug -- 60 22:00 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Sep-01 -- -5392k 22:00 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Sep-01 -- 748k 22:00 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Sep-01 -- 35k 23:15 US Fed's Mester on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Fri/08-Sep-17 05:45 NZ Mfg Activity SA QoQ 2Q -- 2.8% 05:45 NZ Mfg Activity Volume QoQ 2Q -- -0.3% 06:00 US Fed's Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy 06:50 JP BoP Current Account Adjusted Jul 1664.0b 1522.5b 06:50 JP Trade Balance BoP Basis Jul -- 518.5b 06:50 JP BoP Current Account Balance Jul 2058.6 934.6b 06:50 JP GDP SA QoQ 2Q F -- 1.0% 06:50 JP GDP Annualized SA QoQ 2Q F -- 4.0% 06:50 JP GDP Nominal SA QoQ 2Q F -- 1.1% 06:50 JP GDP Deflator YoY 2Q F -- -0.4% 06:50 JP GDP Private Consumption QoQ 2Q F -- 0.9% 06:50 JP GDP Business Spending QoQ 2Q F -- 2.4% 07:30 US Fed's Bostic to Discuss Economy at New Orleans Forum N/A CN Trade Balance CNY Aug -- 321.20b N/A CN Imports YoY CNY Aug -- 14.7% N/A CN Exports YoY CNY Aug -- 11.2% N/A CN Imports YoY Aug 10.0% 11.0% N/A CN Exports YoY Aug 6.6% 7.2% N/A CN Trade Balance Aug $49.30b $46.74b 10:00 AU RBA's Debelle Participates in Panel in Sydney 12:45 CH Unemployment Rate Aug -- 3.0% 12:45 CH Unemployment Rate SA Aug -- 3.2% 13:00 DE Trade Balance Jul -- 21.2b 13:00 DE Current Account Balance Jul -- 23.6b 13:00 DE Exports SA MoM Jul 1.25% -2.8% 13:00 DE Imports SA MoM Jul 3.0% -4.5% 15:30 AU RBA Governor Lowe Gives Speech in Sydney 15:30 GB Industrial Production MoM Jul -- 0.5% 15:30 GB Industrial Production YoY Jul -- 0.3% 15:30 GB Manufacturing Production MoM Jul -- 0.0% 15:30 GB Manufacturing Production YoY Jul -- 0.6%
Page 4 of 7 15:30 GB Construction Output SA MoM Jul -- -0.1% 15:30 GB Construction Output SA YoY Jul -- 0.9% 15:30 GB Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Jul -- - 12722 15:30 GB Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Jul -- - 4471 15:30 GB Trade Balance Jul -- - 4564 15:30 GB BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths Aug -- 2.8% 19:00 GB NIESR GDP Estimate Aug -- 0.2% 19:30 CA Capacity Utilization Rate 2Q -- 83.3% 19:30 CA Net Change in Employment Aug -- 10.9k 19:30 CA Unemployment Rate Aug -- 6.3% 19:30 CA Full Time Employment Change Aug -- 35.1 19:30 CA Part Time Employment Change Aug -- -24.3 19:30 CA Participation Rate Aug -- 65.7 19:45 US Fed's Harker Speaks on Consumer Finance in Philadelphia 21:00 US Wholesale Inventory Jul -- 0.4% 21:00 US Wholesale Sales Jul 0.4% 0.7% 02:00 US Consumer Credit Jul 15b 12.4b Sat/09-Sep-17 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 09-Sep -- 943 02:00 US Consumer Credit Jul $15.500b $12.397b 08:30 CN CPI YoY Aug 1.6% 1.4% 08:30 CN PPI YoY Aug 5.4% 5.5% (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@her1en,@ErwinRiset)
Page 5 of 7 SSIamU7 (Nikkei Sep Futures) Last Trading Date: 07 Sep 2017 Koreksi breakout support krusial di 19300, hit low 19265 Strong support di 19140 Perhatikan area trendline support di sekitar 18900 (Research @ErwinRiset) DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 05 Sep SSIpmU7 19400 19465 19265 200 19350 --- 85 0.44 43321 05 Sep SSIamU7 19570 19585 19350 235 19435 19435 5 0.03 113225 04 Sep SSIpmU7 19465 19545 19440 105 19520 --- 90 0.46 37321 04 Sep SSIamU7 19565 19625 19425 200 19430 19430 265 1.35 77223 01 Sep SSIpmU7 19700 19730 19670 60 19685 --- 10 0.05 27231 01 Sep SSIamU7 19700 19740 19620 120 19695 19695 UNCH UNCH 50209 31 Aug SSIpmU7 19665 19735 19640 95 19680 --- 15 0.08 21692 31 Aug SSIamU7 19565 19705 19560 145 19695 19695 140 0.72 60299 30 Aug SSIpmU7 19560 19590 19490 100 19565 --- 10 0.05 21781 30 Aug SSIamU7 19470 19560 19430 130 19555 19555 165 0.85 62385 WEEKLY SEPTEMBER AUGUST 2017 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 19625 19265 19740 19265 20100 19140 20290 18190 (04/Sep) (05/Sep) (01/Sep) (05/Sep) (02/Aug) (29/Aug) (20/Jun) (17/Apr) RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION 19860 Pivot line 19820 Reaction high (hourly) 19625 Reaction high (hourly) 19465 Reaction high (hourly) 19300 Crucial support 19240 Reaction low (hourly) 19140 Low 29/Aug/2017 (Bottom) 19055 Low 26/Apr/2017 BUY ---- SELL 19395 STOP LOSS 19475 19260 TARGET 19160
Page 6 of 7 KSU7 (Kospi Sep Futures) Exp. Date: 14 Sep 2017 Reversal hadapi level support di 303.00 302.30 Area resistance di 306.00 306.60 Waspadai RSI di zona oversold untuk potensi koreksi terbatas (Research @ErwinRiset) DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 05 Sep 305.95 306.00 303.50 2.50 304.05 304.05 0.80 0.26 191694 04 Sep 303.10 306.60 303.00 3.60 304.85 304.85 2.80 0.91 219499 01 Sep 309.10 309.50 306.85 2.65 307.65 307.65 0.35 0.11 175475 31 Aug 309.90 310.55 307.40 3.15 308.00 308.00 2.35 0.76 173453 30 Aug 309.50 310.35 308.65 1.70 310.35 310.35 1.85 0.60 119325 29 Aug 307.95 309.10 304.45 4.65 308.50 308.50 1.05 0.34 278950 WEEKLY SEPTEMBER AUGUST 2017 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 306.60 303.00 309.50 303.00 319.45 302.30 322.75 259.25 (04/Sep) (04/Sep) (01/Sep) (04/Sep) (01/Aug) (11/Aug) (25/Jul) (02/Jan) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION 310.55 High 31/Aug/2017 309.50 High 01/Sep/2017 306.60 High 04/Sep/2017 306.00 High 05/Sep/2017 303.00 Low 04/Sep/2017 302.30 Low 11/Aug/2017 (Bottom) 301.40 Low 24/May/2017 299.00 Low 22/May/2017 BUY ---- SELL 304.90 STOP LOSS 306.20 TARGET 302.75 302.25
Page 7 of 7 HSIU7 (Hang Seng September Futures) Exp. Date: 28 Sep 2017 Masih bergerak terbatas, dengan koreksi hadapi support krusial di 27600 Jika 27600 pecah, berpeluang picu downtrend ke area support 26800 (Research @ErwinRiset) DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 05 Sep 27775 27824 27628 196 27711 27711 46 0.17 102122 04 Sep 27807 27870 27611 259 27757 27756 113 0.41 109967 01 Sep 27980 28050 27851 199 27870 27869 69 0.25 101179 31 Aug (HSIU7) 27932 27966 27820 146 27939 27937 40 0.14 104355 30 Aug (HSIU7) 27750 28008 27740 268 27979 27979 377 1.37 112511 30 Aug (HSIQ7) 27877 28031 27871 160 28020 28020 297 1.07 20954 29 Aug (HSIU7) 27690 27702 27517 185 27602 27602 145 0.52 95793 WEEKLY SEPTEMBER AUGUST 2017 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 27870 27611 28050 27611 28071 26834 28071 21863 (04/Sep) (04/Sep) (01/Sep) (04/Sep) (28/Aug) (11/Aug) (28/Aug) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION 28071 High 28/Aug/2017 27968 Reaction high (hourly) 27824 Reaction high (hourly) 27750 Reaction high (hourly) 27600 Pivot line (daily) 27433 Low 25/Aug/2017 27130 Low 22/Aug/2017 26924 Low 18/Aug/2017 (Reaction low) BUY ---- SELL 27690 STOP LOSS 27790 TARGET 27500 27400