MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

Transkripsi

1 & Global Market Daily Bulletin Page 1 of 7 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Bursa saham Jepang merosot dari area resistance dengan volume perdagangan yang kecil pada hari Rabu, tekanan indeks Nikkei oleh aksi investor yang cenderung menghindari saham-saham cyclical sebelum big event pekan ini dimana akan diumumkan hasil keputusan sidang ECB serta rilis data pekerjaan AS. Indeks Nikkei turun 0.4% di level Indeks futures Nikkei (SSIcm1) masih terkonsolidasi dibawah kisaran resistance psikologis 20000, dengan area support masih bertahan pada kisaran Bursa Korea Selatan lanjutkan penurunan sesi sebelumnya dengan investor yang cenderung defensive menyusul data ekspornya yang melemah dan aksi jual investor asing yang besar. Indeks KOSPI (KS200) menguat 0.8% di level Fluktuasi indeks futures KOSPI (KSc1) masih tertahan dalam kisaran ! Bursa China berhasil menguat dan mencatatkan persantase penguatan harian dalam kurun waktu sebulan pada hari Rabu. Penguatan indeks Shanghai didorong oleh aksi switching investor dari sahamsaham small caps ke saham-saham blue chips serta spekulasi tambahan stimulus dari pemerintah yang berdampak pada sektor properti. Dengan begitu, indeks Komposit Shanghai menguat 2.3% di level Bursa saham Hong Kong relatif ikuti pergerakan indeks Shanghai yang pada penutupan perdagangan Rabu berhasil menguat 0.4% di level Penguatan bursa Hong Kong mayoritas didorong oleh sektor-sektor finansial dan properti. Fluktuasi indeks futures Hang Seng masih bertahan di atas zona support pada reaction low di level masih kuat terjaga. AS/Global Market Dolar menguat pada hari Rabu dan bursa melemah di Wall Street, setelah Ketua Fed Janet Yellen memberikan sinyal kesiapannya untuk menaikkan suku bunga dan data AS mengindikasikan solidnya pasar tenaga kerja. Yellen mengatakan dia "berharap" bahwa kenaikan suku bunga AS akan dilihat sebagai bukti pemulihan ekonomi dari resesi, meskipun ia belum memberikan jaminan kepastian apakah kenaikan suku bunga akan terjadi pada pertemuan kebijakan terakhir Fed tahun ini pada Desember. Yellen selanjut akan memberikan testimoninya di depan Joint Economic Committee mengenai prospek ekonomi nanti malam. ADP National Employment Report menunjukkan terjadi penambahan pekerjaan sektor swasta sebanyak bulan lalu sementara produktifitas diluar sektor pertanian juga menunjukkan peningkatan lebih tajam dari perkiraan di kuartal ketiga. Menguatnya dolar telah menekan komoditas, dengan minyak terkoreksi menyusul produsen minyak terbesar dunia tidak memberikan sinyal akan pangkas produksi minyaknya pada sidangnya pekan ini. Harga emas juga melemah kemarin. Pasar juga akan mencermati sidang ECB sore nanti yang diperkirakan akan melanjutkan program pelonggaran moneternya. Dow Jones kembali terkoreksi pasca gagal bertahan di atas area Area support jangka pendek berada di sekitar DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

2 Page 2 of 7 DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV MON/30-Nov KR BoK Manufacturing BSI Dec 72 N/A IND KR Industrial Output YY Oct % KR Service Sector Output Growth Oct 0.2 N/A % KR Industrial Output Growth Oct % AU TD-MI Inflation Gauge Nov 0.1 N/A % JP Industrial Output Prelim Oct % JP IP Forecast 1 Mth Ahead Oct 0.2 N/A % JP IP Forecast 2 Mth Ahead Oct -0.9 N/A % JP Retail Sales YY Oct % AU Business Inventories Q % AU Gross Company Profits Q % AU Company Profits Pre-Tax Q N/A % AU Private Sector Credit Oct % AU Housing Credit Oct 0.6 N/A % JP Construction Orders YY Oct N/A % JP Housing Starts YY Oct % HK Money Supply M3 Oct 10.2 N/A % HK Retail Sales YY Oct -3.0 N/A % US Chicago PMI Nov IND US Pending Homes Index Oct N/A IND US Pending Sales Chg MM Oct % US Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx Nov -4.9 N/A IND TUE/01-Dec AU AIG Manufacturing Index Nov 52.5 N/A IND KR CPI Growth Nov % KR CPI Growth YY Nov % JP Business Capex (MOF) YY Q % KR Export Growth Prelim Nov % KR Import Growth Prelim Nov % KR Trade Balance Prelim Nov 10.4 N/A B AU Building Approvals Oct % AU Private House Approvals Oct -2.1 N/A % AU Current Account Deficit Q B AU Net Exports Contribution Q % CN NBS Non-Mfg PMI Nov 53.6 N/A IND CN NBS Manufacturing PMI Nov IND KR Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Nov 49.1 N/A IND JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Nov IND CN Caixin Mfg PMI Final Nov IND AU RBA Cash Rate Dec % AU RBA Rate Statement US Markit Mfg PMI Final Nov 52.8 N/A IND US Construction Spending MM Oct % US ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov IND US ISM Mfg Prices Paid Nov IND US ISM Manuf Employment Idx Nov IND US ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Nov 48.9 N/A IND US Texas Serv Sect Outlook Nov 3.6 N/A IND US Dallas Fed Services Rev. Nov 10.3 N/A IND US FOMC Evans Speaks WED/02-Dec KR Current Account Balance Oct 7.19 N/A B AU RBA Gov Stevens Speaks AU GDP QQ Q % AU GDP YY Q %

3 Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 3 of AU GDP Final Consumption Q3 0.7 N/A % AU GDP Capital Expenditure Q3-4.0 N/A % AU GDP Chain Price Index Q3-0.2 N/A % US FOMC Lockhart Speaks US ADP National Employment Nov K US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks US Labor Costs Revised Q % US Productivity Revised Q % US ISM NY Biz Conditions Nov 60.7 N/A IND US ISM-New York Index Nov N/A IND US EIA Crude Oil Inventories W/E M US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks US FOMC Williams Speaks THU/03-Dec KR FX Reserves Nov N/A B AU AIG Service Index Nov 48.2 N/A IND KR GDP Growth MM Revised Q3 N/A % KR GDP Growth YY Revised Q3 N/A % AU HIA New Home Sales M/M Oct N/A % AU Trade Balance G&S (A$) Oct M AU Goods/Service Imports Oct N/A % AU Goods/Service Exports Oct N/A % CN Caixin Services PMI Nov N/A IND HK Nikkei PMI Nov N/A IND US Challenger Layoffs Nov N/A K US ECB Press Conference US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 268 K US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E N/A K US Continued Jobless Claims W/E M US Markit Comp Final PMI Nov N/A IND US Markit Svcs PMI Final Nov N/A IND US Fed Chair Yellen Testifies US Durable Goods R MM Oct N/A % US Factory Orders MM Oct 1.4 % US Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM Oct N/A % US ISM N-Mfg PMI Nov 58.0 IND US ISM N-Mfg Bus Act Nov 60.2 IND US ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx Nov N/A IND US ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx Nov N/A IND US ISM N-MFg Prices Paid Index Nov N/A IND US FOMC Fischer Speaks FRI/04-Dec AU Retail Sales MM Oct 0.5 % JP Overtime Pay Oct N/A % JP Consumer Confid. Index Nov 41.8 IND 41.5 All Day OPEC Meetings US Non-Farm Payrolls Nov 200 K US Private Payrolls Nov 190 K US Manufacturing Payrolls Nov -1 K US Government Payrolls Nov N/A K US Unemployment Rate SA Nov 5.0 % US Average Earnings MM Nov 0.2 % US Average Workweek Hrs Nov 34.5 H US Labor Force Partic Nov N/A % US U6 Underemployment Nov N/A % US International Trade MM Oct B (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research:@nikolasprasetia-@her1en)

4 Page 4 of 7 ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2015 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH (29/Dec/89) (03/May/11) (30/Oct/07) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (16/Oct./07) 2014 HIGH HIGH (24/Jun/2015) (24/Apr/2015) (27/Apr/2015) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (12/Jun/2015) 2015 LOW (16/Jan/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (29/Sep/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (26/Aug/2015) 2014 LOW RECORD LOW (06/Jul/50) (16/Jun/98) (31/Aug/67) (17/Jan/55) (23/Nov./82) (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 02 Desember 2015 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI / 0.89%.N /0.37% /.SPX / 1.10%.KS /0.84% /.IXIC / 0.64%.HSI /0.44% JPY= / 0.32% /.SSEC /2.33% KRW= / 0.63% /CLc1(Oil) /4.18%

5 Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 5 of 7 INTRADAY CHART SSIamZ5 (Nikkei December Futures) Last Trading Date: 10 Dec DAILY CHART DAILY CHART INDICATORS RSI-14 : Mom-14 : EMA 20 : WMA 55 : Daily Trend : DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 02 Dec SSIpmZ Dec SSIamZ Dec SSIpmZ Dec SSIamZ Nov SSIpmZ Nov SSIamZ Nov SSIpmZ Nov SSIamZ Nov SSIpmZ Nov SSIamZ WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2015 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (01/Dec) (29/Nov) (01/Dec) (01/Dec) (23/Nov) (02/Nov) (24/Jun) (14/Jan) Tertahan di bawah level dengan indeks bergerak di area rectangle Kondisi RSI yang berada di sekitar zona overbought berpotensi picu reversal selama area efektif. ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION High 18/Aug/ High 19/Aug/ High 20/Aug/ High 21/Aug/ Horizontal support Pivot line on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-D chart BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS TARGET

6 Page 6 of 7 INTRADAY CHART KSZ5 (Kospi December Futures) Exp. Date: 10 Dec DAILY CHART DAILY CHART INDICATORS RSI-14 : Mom-14 : EMA 20 : WMA 55 : Daily Trend : DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 02 Dec Dec Nov Nov Nov WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2015 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (01/Dec) (30/Nov) (01/Dec) (01/Dec) (04/Nov) (16/Nov) (24/Apr) (24/Aug) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION High 03/Jul/2015 Area pivot line di (1-H chart) efektif meredam rebound, memicu reversal ke area support Waspadai area trendline support di sekitar 245 pada 1-D chart untuk kemungkinan koreksi terbatas. RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION Peak level on 1-D chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Bottom level Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET

7 Page 7 of 7 INTRADAY CHART HSIZ5 (Hang Seng December Futures) Exp. Date: 30 Dec DAILY CHART DAILY CHART INDICATORS RSI-14 : Mom-14 : EMA 20 : WMA 55 : Daily Trend : DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 02 Dec (HSIZ5) Dec (HSIZ5) Nov (HSIZ5) Nov (HSIZ5) Nov Nov WEEKLY NOVEMBER OCTOBER 2015 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (02/Dec) (30/Nov) (02/Dec) (01/Dec) (26/Oct) (02/Oct) (27/Apr) (08/Sept) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION Peak level Reli tertahan di sekitar 22500, dan jika ini berlanjut, maka koreksi berkembang untuk uji kembali area Sedangkan jika area dapat dipecahkan, maka reli berkembang untuk uji area upperline dari formasi symmetrical triangle pada 1-D chart di sekitar RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION Reaction high on 1-H chart Horizontal resistance on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Low 30/Nov/ Horizontal support on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Low 02/Oct/2015 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET