ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Transkripsi

1 Fundamental & Technical Outlook ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 6 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Bursa saham Asia melorot dari posisi tertinggi 7 pekan dipicu turunnya harga minyak. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia- Pasifik diluar Jepang turun 0,3% dan Nikkei Jepang juga menghapus keuntungannya untuk kemudian ditutup melemah 0,4%. Bursa Cina ditutup turun 0,9%, penurunan tertajamnya dalam 3 pekan. Indeks Kospi Korea dan ASX Australia keduanya juga ditutup melemah. Harga minyak sebelumnya melejit 7% di hari Senin dan reli sekitar 30% dari posisi terendah sebulan lalu. Namun di hari Selasa, harga minyak turun oleh concern bahwa pemangkasan produksi minyak AS kemungkinan akan diimbangi oleh meningkatnya output dari Iran. Eropa: Bursa Eropa juga ditutup melemah pada hari Selasa karena turunnya harga minyak dan juga update yang mengecewakan dari Standard Chartered dan BHP Billiton, namun ekspektasi adanya Merger dan Akuisisi diantara bursa mendorong saham-saham didalamnya. Berita dari pembicaraan merger antara Deutsche Boerse dan London Stock Exchange untuk membuat kelompok besar perdagangan Eropa mengirim saham mereka masing-masing naik 3,2 dan 13 persen, juga membeli saham di operator bursa lainnya seperti Euronext dan BME Spanyol. Indeks saham Inggris juga melemah dipicu oleh turunnya saham Standard Chartered (perbankan) dan juga BHP Billiton (pertambangan), mengimbangi kenaikan pada London Stock Exchange Group seiring pembicaraan mengenai merger. AS & Global Markets: Turunnya harga minyak picu pelemahan bursa global pada hari Selasa, setelah usulan untuk memangkas produksi minyak oleh sejumlah produsen minyak dunia meredup. Pasca melejit lebih dari 5% di hari Senin yang berhasil mendorong naiknya ekuitas dunia lebih dari 1%, Brent dan juga U.S. crude merosot tajam setelah Menteri Perminyakan Saudi Ali Al-Naimi mengatakan ia menyambut baik semua sumber pasokan, sementara Iran ditengarai tidak mungkin untuk menyetujui plafon output. Penurunan harga minyak telah memukul saham energi dan finansial di Wall Street. Sterling masih tertekan terhadap dolar oleh kekhawatiran terjadinya Brexit. Euro juga terkoreksi mendekati terendah 3 pekan terhadap dolar akibat kekhawatiran Brexit yang akan berpotensi melemahkan Uni Eropa. Sedangkan Treasury AS tenor 10 tahun berhasil rebound. Dow Jones terkonsolidasi pasca gagal breakout Adapun data penting AS yang akan dicermati investor saat ini adalah durable goods (Kamis). Perkembangan ekonomi Cina juga akan diperhatikan untuk melihat kemungkinan terjadi depresiasi nilai tukar yuan setelah data ekspor-impor negara tersebut jatuh. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH (29/Dec/89) (03/May/11) (30/Oct/07) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH (24/Jun/2015) (24/Apr/2015) (27/Apr/2015) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH LOW (12/Feb/16) (20/Jan/16) (12/Feb/16) (20/Jan/16) (11/Feb/16) (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW (16/Jan/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (29/Sep/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW (06/Jul/50) (16/Jun/98) (31/Aug/67) (17/Jan/55) (23/Nov./82) (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 23 February 2016 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI / 1.14%.N /0.37% /.SPX / 1.25%.KS /0.03% /.IXIC /1.47%.HSI /0.25% JPY= / 0.75% /.SSEC /0.79% KRW= / 0.61% /CLc1(Oil) / 0.35% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

2 Fundamental & Technical Outlook ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV MON/22-Feb JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Flash Feb IND US National Activity Index Jan 0.28 N/A IND US Markit Mfg Flash PMI Feb IND 52.4 TUE/23-Feb HK Consumer Price Index Jan 2.7 N/A % N/A HK Unemployment Rate Jan 3.3 N/A % US Caseshiller 20 MM SA Dec % US CaseShiller 20 MM NSA Dec % US CaseShiller 20 YY Dec % US Consumer Confidence Feb IND US Existing Home Sales Jan M US Exist. Home Sales % Chg. Jan % US Rich Fed Comp Index Feb -4 2 IND US Rich Fed Services Index Feb -2 N/A IND US Rich Fed Mfg Shipments Feb -11 N/A IND -6 WED/24-Feb AU Construction Work Done Q4-2.0 % AU Wage Price Index QQ Q4 0.6 % AU Wage Price Index YY Q4 2.3 % HK GDP QQ Q4 N/A % HK GDP YY Q4 N/A % US Markit Comp Flash PMI Feb N/A IND US Markit Svcs PMI Flash Feb 53.5 IND US New Home Sales - Units Jan M US New Home Sales Chg. MM Jan -4.4 % US EIA Crude Inventories w/e M THU/25-Feb KR Consumer Sentiment Ind Feb N/A IND US FOMC Bullard Speaks AU Capital Expenditure Q4-3.0 % AU Building Capex Q4-4.7 % AU Plant/Machinery Capex Q4 0.0 % HK Imports Jan N/A % HK Exports Jan N/A % US Build Permits R Numb MM Jan N/A M US Build Permits R Chg. MM Jan N/A % US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 270 K US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E N/A K US Continued Jobless Claims W/E M US Durables Goods Jan 2.8 % US Nondefe Cap Ex-Air Jan 0.8 % US Monthly Home Price MM Dec N/A % US Monthly Home Price YY Dec N/A % US Monthly Home Price Index Dec N/A IND US KC Fed Manufacturing Feb N/A IND US KC Fed Composite Index Feb N/A IND -9 FRI/26-Feb JP CPI Core Nationwide YY Jan 0.0 % JP CPI Overall Nationwide Jan N/A % JP CPI Core Tokyo YY Feb -0.2 % JP CPI Overall Tokyo Feb -0.2 % CN China House Prices YY Jan N/A % US Adv Goods Trade Balance Jan N/A B US GDP 2nd Estimate Q4 0.4 % US GDP Sales Prelim Q4 1.1 % US GDP Cons Spending Prelim Q4 N/A % US GDP Deflator Prelim Q4 0.8 % US Core PCE Prices Prelim Q4 1.2 % US PCE Prices Prelim Q4 0.1 % US UoM Sentiment Final Feb 91.0 IND 90.7

3 ASIA STOCK INDEX Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 3 of US UoM Conditions Final Feb IND US UoM Expectations Final Feb 80.8 IND US Personal Consump Real MM Jan N/A % US Personal Income MM Jan 0.4 % US Consumption Adjusted MM Jan 0.3 % US Core PCE Price Index MM Jan 0.2 % US Core PCE Price Index YY Jan N/A % US PCE Price Index MM Jan N/A % US PCE Price Index YY Jan N/A % US Dallas Fed PCE Jan N/A % 0.9 (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX-

4 Fundamental & Technical Outlook ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 4 of 6 SSIamH6 (Nikkei March Futures) Last Trading Date: 14 Mar Formasi descending triangle Area masih efektif Short-term support di Strong support di DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 23 Feb SSIpmH Feb SSIamH Feb SSIpmH Feb SSIamH Feb SSIpmH Feb SSIamH Feb SSIpmH Feb SSIamH Feb SSIpmH Feb SSIamH WEEKLY FEBRUARY JANUARY 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (23/Feb) (22/Feb) (01/Feb) (12/Feb) (04/Jan) (21/Jan) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION Pivot line RESISTANCE SUPPORT Pivot line Short-term resistance Pivot line Low 17/Feb/ Low 21/Oct/ Low 20/Oct/ Low 17/Oct/2014 (Bottom) BUY ---- RECOMMENDATION SELL STOP LOSS TARGET DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

5 ASIA STOCK INDEX Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 5 of 6 KSH6 (Kospi March Futures) Exp. Date: 10 Mar Strong resistance di 239 Area masih diuji Strong support di DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 23 Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb WEEKLY FEBRUARY JANUARY 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (23/Feb) (22/Feb) (23/Feb) (12/Feb) (04/Jan) (20/Jan) (04/Jan) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION High 30/Dec/2015 (reaction high) High 04/Jan/ High 05/Jan/ High 06/Jan/ Low 22/Feb/ Key support Short-term support Low 15/Feb/2016 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET

6 ASIA STOCK INDEX Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 6 of 6 HSIG6 (Hang Seng February Futures) Exp. Date: 26 Feb Pola Ascending triangle dengan trendline support masih efektif Key resistance di Short-term resistance di DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 23 Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb WEEKLY FEBRUARY JANUARY 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (23/Feb) (23/Feb) (01/Feb) (12/Feb) (04/Jan) (21/Jan) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION Pivot line Pivot line Pivot line Horizontal resistance Low 23/Feb/ Low 16/Feb/ Low 15/Feb/ Low 12/Feb/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET