ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Transkripsi

1 ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 5 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Saham Asia tembus level terendah 3 pekan pada hari Rabu setelah permulaan yang kurang baik untuk musim laporan earnings perusahaan Wall Street telah menyeret bursa AS, sementara dolar dan yield Treasury AS di level tertinggi multibulanan oleh tumbuhnya ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember. Sterling rebound dari level low dalam perdagangan yang fluktuatif, meskipun concern mengenai hard Brexit nampaknya akan tetap menekan mata uang Inggris tersebut. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang jatuh ke level terendah 3 pekan, menyeret saham-saham mendekati level terendah 3 pekan yang dicapai pada hari Selasa sebelumnya. Saat ini pasar memberikan peluang sekitar 75% untuk kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember, sedikit naik dari beberapa hari terakhir ini. Eropa: Bursa Eropa turun tipis pada hari Rabu dengan Ericsson Swedia terkoreksi ke level terendah 8 tahun usai melaporkan sebuah profit warning. Indeks STOXX 600 melemah 0,5%, pelemahan dalam 2 sesi berturut-turut. Sepanjang tahun ini indeks catat penurunan 7,4%. DAX Jerman juga turun 0,5%, sementara FTSE 100 dan FTSE 250 Inggris keduanya turun sekitar 0,7%. Ericsson merosot 20% ke level terendah sejak 2008 setelah memperingatkan bahwa profit Q3 akan turun secara signifikan melampaui ekspektasi setelah penurunan dalam bisnis broadband mobile terakselerasi. AS & Global Markets: Pasar ekuitas global masih melemah tipis sementara dolar menguat pada hari Rabu setelah minutes dari sidang The Fed pada September lalu mengisyaratkan suku bunga bisa dinaikkan jika ekonomi AS terus menguat. Pasar tidak banyak bereaksi atas rilis minutes tersebut. Harga minyak turun 1% setelah OPEC melaporkan produksi minyak tembus level tertinggi 8 tahun di bulan September, mengimbangi optimisme seputar janji OPEC untuk mengendalikan kelebihan pasokan. Sterling rebound dari tekanan jual brutalnya pekan lalu setelah PM Inggris Theresa May menawarkan untuk memberikan suara kepada parlemen dalam rencana meninggalkan Uni Eropa, dimana telah mengurangi kekhawatiran terjadinya hard Brexit. Euro catat level terendah 11 minggu di $ di awal sesi AS dan terakhir tercatat melemah 0,34% di $ Dolar terakhir tercatat naik 0,7% terhadap yen di yen. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH (29/Dec/89) (03/May/11) (30/Oct/07) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH (24/Jun/2015) (24/Apr/2015) (27/Apr/2015) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH (04/Jan/16) (07/Sep/16) (09/Sep/16) (15/Aug/16) (15/Aug/16) (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW (24/Jun/16) (20/Jan/16) (12/Feb/16) (20/Jan/16) (11/Feb/16) (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW (16/Jan/2015) (29/Sep/2015) (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW (06/Jul/50) (16/Jun/98) (31/Aug/67) (17/Jan/55) (23/Nov./82) (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 12 Oktober 2016 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI / 0.19%.N /1.09% /.SPX / 0.11%.KS /0.02% /.IXIC / 0.15%.HSI /0.60% JPY= / 0.68% /.SSEC /0.20% KRW= / 0.05% /CLc1 (Oil) / 1.54% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

2 Page 2 of 5 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV Mon/10-Oct 21:00 US Employment Trends* Sep N/A ind All Day US Columbus Day/Bank Holiday All Day JP Health and Sports Day/Bank Holiday Tue/11-Oct 06:50 JP Current Account NSA JPY* Aug b :30 AU NAB Business Conditions Sep 8 N/A ind 7 07:30 AU NAB Business Confidence Sep 6 N/A ind 6 07:30 AU Housing Finance* Aug % :30 AU Invest Housing Finance Aug 0.1 N/A % :00 JP Economy Watchers Poll* Sep 44.8 N/A ind :00 US NFIB Business Optimism I Sep 94.1 N/A ind Wed/12-Oct 06:00 KR Unemployment Rate* Sep 4.0 N/A % ~13Oct 06:30 AU Consumer Sentiment Oct 1.1 N/A % :50 JP Machinery Orders MM* Aug % :50 JP Machinery Orders YY* Aug % :00 KR L-Money Supply Growth Aug 7.7 N/A % :00 US JOLTS Job Openings* Aug m ~20Oct : CN FDI (YTD)* Sep N/A % ~15Oct : CN M2 Money Supply YY* Sep 11.6 % ~15Oct : CN New Yuan Loans* Sep b ~15Oct : CN Outstanding Loan Growth* Sep 12.9 % 13.0 Thu/13-Oct : CN Exports YY* Sep -3.0 % -2.8 : CN Imports YY* Sep 1.0 % 1.5 : CN Trade Balance USD* Sep b : KR Bank of Korea Base Rate* Oct 1.25 % :00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes Sep 06:50 JP Bank Lending YY Sep N/A % :30 US Import Prices MM Sep 0.2 % :30 US Export Prices MM Sep 0.0 % :30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 254 k :30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e N/A k :30 US Continued Jobless Claims w/e N/A m :30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e m :30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e m :30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stocks w/e m :15 US Fed s Harker Speaks Econ. Outlook in Philadelphia Fri/14-Oct 01:00 US Federal Budget,$ Sep b :00 KR Export Price Growth YY* Sep N/A % :00 KR Import Price Growth YY* Sep N/A % :50 JP Corp Goods Price MM* Sep -0.1 % :50 JP Corp Goods Price YY* Sep -3.2 % :30 CN PPI YY* Sep -0.3 % :30 CN CPI YY* Sep 1.6 % :30 CN CPI MM* Sep 0.3 % :30 US PPI Final Demand YY Sep 0.6 % :30 US PPI Final Demand MM Sep 0.2 % :30 US PPI ex Food/Energy YY Sep 1.2 % :30 US PPI ex Food/Energy MM Sep 0.1 % :30 US Retail Sales MM Sep 0.6 % :30 US Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Sep 0.4 % :30 US Retail Control Sep 0.4 % :00 US Business Inventories MM Aug 0.2 % :00 US U Michigan Sentiment Prelim Oct 91.9 ind :00 US U Michigan Conditions Prelim Oct ind :00 US U Michigan Expectations Prelim Oct 82.7 ind :00 US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks at Boston Fed Conference (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory,

3 Page 3 of 5 SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) Last Trading Date: 12 Dec Rebound coba tes kembali level psikologi di Key resistance di sekitar Area support di sekitar DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 12 Oct SSIpmZ Oct SSIamZ Oct SSIpmZ Oct SSIamZ Oct SSIpmZ Oct SSIamZ Oct SSIpmZ Oct SSIamZ Oct SSIpmZ Oct SSIamZ (11/Oct) (10/Oct) (11/Oct) (03/Oct) (02/Sep) (27/Sep) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & High 31/May/2016 (Peak) Peak level (1-H chart) Peak level (1-H chart) Peak level (1-H chart) Trendline support Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) BUY STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 5 KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) Exp. Date: 08 Dec Koreksi tertahan di sekitar area trendline support di Pola inverted hammer dukung sinyal bullish DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 12 Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct (10/Oct) (12/Oct) (06/Oct) (12/Oct) (08/Sep) (19/Sep) (08/Sep) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 29/May/2015 (Reaction high) High 07/Sep/2016 (Peak) Reaction high (1-H chart) Reaction high (1-H chart) Low 27/Sep/ Trendline support Low 21/Sep/ Low 20/Sep/2016 BUY STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 5 HSIV6 (Hang Seng Oct Futures) Exp. Date: 28 October 2016 Area support di masih efektif Pola doji star berpotensi dukung rebound berkembang Waspadai dibuka melemah di sekitar DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 12 Oct Oct Oct H O L I D A Y 07 Oct Oct Oct Oct (11/Oct) (12/Oct) (11/Oct) (12/Oct) (09/Sep) (01/Sep) (09/Sep) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & Reaction high (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-H chart) Bottom (1-H chart) Bottom (1-H chart) Bottom (1-H chart) Low 14/Sep/2016 (Reaction low) BUY STOP LOSS