ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Transkripsi

1 ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 7 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Bursa Asia jatuh pada hari Jumat, terinspirasi oleh jatuhnya Wall Street dan bursa Eropa, menyusul ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS lebih cepat dari perkiraan yang mendorong naiknya yield Treasury AS tenor 10 tahun ke level tertinggi 18 bulan di sesi overnight. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang turun 0,9%, catat penurunan mingguan 0,3%. Indeks Nikkei, yang melonjak ke level tertinggi 11 bulan pada hari Kamis, ditutup melemah 0,5% pada hari Jumat, namun masih catat kenaikan mingguan 0,24%. Indeks CSI 300 Cina merosot 1% dan catat penurunan mingguan 0,2%. Indeks Hang Seng Hong Kong menjadi saham Asia yang mengalami kemerosotan tertajam pada hari Jumat dengan turun 1,4% dan kehilangan lebih dari 0,7% dalam sepekan. Kospi juga terkoreksi 0,7% dan turun 0,2% dalam sepekan, setelah partai-partai oposisi mengatakan mereka akan mengajukan mosi hari Jumat untuk mendakwa Presiden Park Geun-hye atas skandalnya, dengan tujuan menggelar pemungutan suara untuk impeachment nya pada 9 Desember. Naiknya harga minyak juga mendukung ekspektasi kenaikan inflasi. Eropa: Bursa Eropa ditutup melemah setelah terkoreksi di awal sesi pada hari Jumat ke level terendah 3 pekan menyusul investor berlaku hati-hati jelang referendum konstitusi di Italia yang berpotensi memicu ketidakpastian politik di kawasan. Indeks STOXX 600 ditutup melemah 0,4%, tertekan oleh melemahnya saham keuangan dan komoditas seiring jatuhnya harga logam. Indeks utama Eropa ditutup pekan ini (kemarin) di teritorial negatif setelah catat penguatan dalam 3 pekan sebelumnya. Sikap hati-hati investor jelang referendum konstitusi di Italia juga turut menekan bursa Inggris, dengan saham perbankan pimpin penurunan. Indeks FTSE 100 ditutup turun 0,3%, dan mencatat penurunan mingguan 1,6% sekaligus mengakhiri reli 3 minggunya. AS & Global Markets: Yield obligasi jatuh di hari Jumat setelah rilis optimis data pekerjaan AS memperkuat pandangan bahwa The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga secara gradual, sementara pasar uang dan saham bergerak hati-hati jelang referendum konstitusi Italia di hari Minggu. Minyak berjangka rebound oleh melemahnya USD, melanjutkan kenaikan yang dipicu oleh pemotongan produksi minyak yang disepakati oleh Organisasi Negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC), yang pertama sejak Data non-farm payrolls bulan November dirilis optimis, sedikit di atas ekspektasi pasar, dan mendukung tekad The Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir setahun terakhir. Tingkat pengangguran juga turun menjadi 4,6%, level terendahnya selama lebih dari 9 tahun, namun tingkat upah diluar dugaan turun 0,1%, mengurangi harapan pendapatan rumah tangga akan mendukung naiknya inflasi. Kecemasan atas kemungkinan Italia menolak referendum Perdana Menteri Matteo Renzi, yang bisa menyulut ketidakstabilan politik di ekonomi terbesar ketiga zona euro, telah menyebabkan perdagangan berfluktuasi di pasar Eropa. Investor juga menunggu untuk melihat apakah Norbert Hofer dari sayap kanan Partai Kebebasan mungkin menang atas mantan pemimpin Partai Hijau Alexander Van der Bellen dalam pemilihan presiden Austria, Minggu. Indeks dolar catat koreksi mingguan pertamanya dalam sebulan dan terakhir tercatat turun 0,4% ke Melemahnya USD mendorong rebound pada harga minyak dan juga emas. Weekahead: Disamping masalah referendum konstitusi di Italia dan pilpres di Austria, pandangan pasar akan tertuju pada sidang ECB pekan ini (Kamis). Dalam pertemuan yang diselenggarakan di tengah gejolak politik, ECB kemungkinan akan berpendapat bahwa inflasi masih tetap lemah, sehingga langkah pembelian aset perlu dilanjutkan setelah Maret, mungkin selama enam bulan, untuk menopang pertumbuhan dan inflasi. ECB telah menggelontorkan dana sekitar 1,4 trilyun euro untuk pembelian obligasi, mengirimkan suku bunga ke rekor terendahnya, dan kondisi ini (pemberian stimulus) pada akhirnya harus berakhir. Disamping ECB, bank sentral India, Australia dan Kanada juga akan mengadakan sidangnya pekan ini. Bank sentral India diprediksi akan pangkas suku bunga sedangkan RBA dan BoC diprediksi mempertahankannya. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH (29/Dec/89) (03/May/11) (30/Oct/07) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH (24/Jun/2015) (24/Apr/2015) (27/Apr/2015) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH (04/Jan/16) (07/Sep/16) (09/Sep/16) (30/Nov/16) (30/Nov/16) (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW (24/Jun/16) (20/Jan/16) (12/Feb/16) (20/Jan/16) (11/Feb/16) (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW (16/Jan/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (29/Sep/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (24/Aug/2015) (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW (06/Jul/50) (16/Jun/98) (31/Aug/67) (17/Jan/55) (23/Nov./82) (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 02 December 2016 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI / 0.11%.N /0.47% /.SPX / 0.04%.KS /0.63% /.IXIC / 0.09%.HSI /1.37% JPY= / 0.50% /.SSEC /0.88% KRW= / 0.04% /CLc1 (Oil) / 1.21% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

2 Page 2 of 7 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV. Mon/28-Nov-16 22:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Bus idx* Nov 10.2 N/A Tue/29-Nov-16 04:00 KR BOK Manufacturing BSI* Dec 74 N/A 74 06:30 JP Unemployment Rate Oct 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 06:30 JP Jobs/Applicants Ratio Oct :30 JP All Household Spending YY* Oct -0.4% -0.6% -2.1% 06:30 JP All Household Spending MM Oct -1.0% 0.1% 2.8% 06:50 JP Retail Sales YY Oct -0.1% -1.2% -1.9% 14:00 KR Bank of Korea Policy Meeting Minutes 20:30 US GDP 2 nd Estimate Q3 3.2% 3.0% 2.9 % 20:30 US GDP Sales Prelim Q3 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 20:30 US GDP Cons Spending Prelim Q3 2.8% N/A 2.1% 20:30 US GDP Deflator Prelim Q3 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 20:30 US Core PCE Price Prelim Q3 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 20:30 US PCE Prices Prelim Q3 1.4% 2.0% 1.4% 21:00 US CaseShiller 20 MM SA Sep 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 21:00 US CaseShiller 20 MM NSA Sep 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 21:00 US CaseShiller 20 YY Sep 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% 21:15 US Fed's Dudley Speaks 22:00 US Consumer Confidence Nov :30 US Texas Serv Sect Outlook Nov 12.6 N/A :30 US Dallas Fed Services Reve Nov 13.7 N/A 9.9 Wed/30-Nov-16 06:00 KR Industrial Production YY* Oct -1.6% -2.0% -2.0% -1.7% 06:00 KR Service Sector Output Gr Oct -0.2% N/A 0.6% -0.7% 06:00 KR Industrial Output Growth Oct -1.7% -0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 06:50 JP Industrial Production Prelim Oct 0.1% -0.1% 0.6% 07:00 AU HIA New Home Sales MM Nov -8.5% N/A 3.8% 07:30 AU Building Approvals* Oct -12.6% 1.5% -8.7% -9.3% 07:30 AU Private House Approvals* Oct -3.4% N/A 2.3% 1.5% 07:30 AU Private Sector Credit* Oct 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 07:30 AU Housing Credit* Oct 0.6% N/A 0.5% 12:00 JP Housing Starts YY* Oct 13.7% 11.2% 10.0% 12:00 JP Construction Orders YY* Oct 15.2% N/A 16.3% 15:30 HK Money Supply M3* Oct 8.1% N/A 7.80% 20:00 US Fed's Kaplan Speaks in New York 20:15 US ADP National Employment Nov 216.0k 165k 147k 119.0k 20:30 US Personal Income MM Oct 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 20:30 US Personal Consump Real MM Oct 0.1% N/A 0.3% 0.5% 20:30 US Consumption. Adjusted MM Oct 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index MM Oct 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index YY Oct 1.4% N/A 1.7% 20:30 US PCE Price Index MM Oct 0.2% N/A 0.2% 20:30 US PCE Price Index YY Oct 1.4% N/A 1.2% 21:45 US Chicago PMI Nov :00 US Pending Home Sales Change MM Oct 0.1% 0.4% 1.5% 1.4% 22:00 US Pending Home Index Oct N/A :30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e m 0.636m m 22:30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e 4.957m 1.336m 0.327m 22:30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e 2.097m 1.156m 2.317m 30 Nov ~ 01 Dec US OPEC Meeting: 171st Meeting in Vienna Thu/01-DEC-16 02:00 US U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 05:30 AU AIG Mfg Index Nov 54.2 N/A :00 KR CPI Growth* Nov -0.1% 0.10% 0.1% 06:00 KR CPI Growth YY* Nov 1.3% 1.50% 1.3% 06:00 KR Current Account Balance* Oct 6.01b N/A 7.06b 6.86b 06:50 JP Business Capex (MOF) YY* Q3-1.3% N/A 3.1%

3 Page 3 of 7 07:00 KR Exports Growth Prelim* Nov 2.7% 1.2% -3.2% 07:00 KR Imports Growth Prelim* Nov 10.1% 2.9% -4.8% 07:00 KR Trade Balance Prelim* Nov 8.0b N/A 6.97b 07:30 AU Capital Expenditure* Q3-4.0% -2.5% -5.4% -5.2% 07:30 AU Plant/Machinery Capex* Q3-1.9% N/A 2.8% 07:30 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Nov 51.3 N/A :30 KR Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Nov 48.0 N/A :00 CN NBS Manufacturing PMI* Nov :00 CN NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Nov 54.7 N/A :45 CN Caixin Mfg PMI Final Nov :30 HK Retail Sales YY* Oct -2.9% N/A -4.1% 19:30 US Challenger Layoffs Nov k N/A k 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e k 251k 20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e N/A k 20:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims w/e 2.081m 2.040m 2.043m 20:30 US Fed's Mester Gives Opening Remarks at Financial Stability Conf 21:00 US Fed's Kaplan Speaks in San Antonio 21:45 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Nov 54.1 N/A :00 US Construction Spending MM Oct 0.5% 0.5% -0.4% 0.0% 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov :00 US ISM Mfg Prices Paid Nov :00 US ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Nov 52.3 N/A 52.1 Fri/02-DEC-16 06:00 KR GDP Growth YY Q3 0.6% N/A 2.7% 06:00 KR GDP Growth QQ Q3 2.6% N/A 0.7% 07:30 AU Retail Sales MoM Oct 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 20:30 US Non-farm Payrolls Nov 178k 175k 161k 142k 20:30 US Private Payrolls Nov 156k 165k 142k 135k 20:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls Nov -4k -3k -9k -5k 20:30 US Government Payrolls Nov 22k N/A 19k 7k 20:30 US Unemployment Rate Nov 4.6% 4.9% 4.9% 20:30 US Average Earnings MM Nov -0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 20:30 US Average Workweek Hrs Nov 34.4h 34.4h 34.4h 20:30 US Labor Force Participation Rate Nov 62.7% N/A 62.8% 20:30 US U6 Underemployment Rate Nov 9.3% N/A 9.5% 21:45 US ISM-New York Index Nov N/A :45 US ISM-NY Biz Conditions Nov 52.5 N/A 49.2 DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV. Mon/05-Dec 04:00 KR FX Reserves* Nov N/A $375.17b 05:30 AU AIG Services Index Nov N/A :30 AU ANZ Internet Job Ads Nov N/A 1.0% 08:45 CN Caixin Services PMI Nov :30 HK Nikkei PMI Nov N/A :45 JP BOJ Kuroda speaks at Europlace in Tokyo 12:00 JP Consumer Confidence Index* Nov :30 US Fed's Dudley Speaks on Economy and Policy in New York 21:25 US Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Chicago 21:45 US Markit Services PMI Final Nov N/A :45 US Markit Composite Final PMI Nov N/A :00 US Employment Trends* Nov N/A :00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Nov Dec N/A CN FX Reserves (Monthly)* Nov N/A 3121t Tue/06-Dec 02:05 US Fed's Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economic Outlook In Arizona 07:30 AU Current Account Deficit* Q b 15.54b 07:30 AU Net Exports Contribution Q3 0.0% -0.2% 10:30 AU RBA Cash Rate* Dec 1.50% 1.50% 20:30 US International Trade MM $ Oct -41.5b -36.4b 20:30 US Productivity Revised Q3 3.3% 3.1%

4 Page 4 of 7 20:30 US Labor Costs Revised Q3 0.3% 0.3% 22:00 US Factory Orders Oct 2.5% 0.3% 22:00 US Factory Orders Ex Trans MM Oct N/A 0.6% 22:00 US Durable Goods Orders R MM Oct -3.5% 4.8% 22:00 US Durables Ex Transportation R MM Oct N/A 1.0% 22:00 US Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM Oct N/A 0.4% Wed/07-Dec 05:30 AU AIG Construction Index Nov N/A :00 JP Reuters Tankan DI Dec N/A 14 06:50 JP Foreign Reserves Nov N/A b 07:30 AU GDP QQ* Q3 0.3% 0.5% 07:30 AU GDP YY* Q3 2.5% 3.3% 08:30 JP BOJ Iwata makes a speech in Nagasaki 12:00 JP Leading Indicator MM* Oct N/A :00 JP Coincident Indicator* Oct N/A :30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e N/A m 22:30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e N/A 4.957m 22:30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e N/A 2.097m Thu/08-Dec N/A CN Exports YY* Nov -5.7% -7.3% N/A CN Imports YY* Nov -2.1% -1.4% N/A CN Trade Balance USD* Nov N/A 49.06b 03:00 US Consumer Credit Oct 18.50b 19.29b Dec 06:50 JP Bank Lending YY Nov N/A 2.4% 06:50 JP Current Account NSA JPY* Oct b b 06:50 JP GDP Revised QQ Q3 0.6% 0.5% 06:50 JP GDP Rev QQ Annualised* Q3 2.4% 2.2% 06:50 JP GDP Cap Ex Rev QQ* Q3 0.2% 0.0% 07:30 AU Trade Balance G&S (A$)* Oct -800m -1227m 07:30 AU Goods/Services Imports* Oct N/A -1.0% 07:30 AU Goods/Services Exports* Oct N/A 2.0% 12:00 JP Economy Watchers Poll* Nov N/A :30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e N/A 268k 20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e N/A 251.5k 20:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims w/e N/A 2.081m Fri/09-Dec 06:50 JP Business Survey Index* Q4 N/A :30 AU Housing Finance* Oct -1.0% 1.6% 07:30 AU Invest Housing Finance* Oct N/A 4.6% 08:30 CN CPI YY* Nov 2.2% 2.1% 08:30 CN CPI MM* Nov N/A -0.1% 08:30 CN PPI YY Nov 2.1% 1.2% 22:00 US Wholesale Inventories MM Oct -0.3% -0.4% 22:00 US Wholesale Sales MM Oct 0.3% 0.2% 22:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Dec :00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Dec N/A :00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Dec N/A Dec ~15 Dec N/A CN M2 Money Supply YY Nov N/A 11.6% 10 Dec ~15 Dec N/A CN Outstanding Loan Growth Nov N/A 13.1% 10 Dec ~15 Dec N/A CN New Yuan Loans CNY Nov 710.0b 651.3b 10 Dec ~20 Dec N/A CN FDI (YTD) Nov N/A 4.20% (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory,

5 Page 5 of 7 SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) Last Trading Date: 12 Dec Koreksi berlanjut setelah gagal bertahan di atas area Koreksi hadapi support jangka pendek di DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 02 Dec SSIpmZ Dec SSIamZ Dec SSIpmZ Dec SSIamZ Nov SSIpmZ Nov SSIamZ Nov SSIpmZ Nov SSIamZ Nov SSIpmZ Nov SSIamZ WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (01/Dec) (28/Nov) (01/Dec) (02/Dec) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION High 04/Jan/ Peak level (1-H chart) Reaction high (1-H chart) Reaction high (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET 18140

6 Page 6 of 7 KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) Exp. Date: 08 Dec Koreksi sedang uji area lowerline of symmetrical triangle di , setelah hit day low di Koreksi hadapi level support berikutnya di , DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 02 Dec Dec Nov Nov Nov Nov WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (01/Dec) (28/Nov) (01/Dec) (02/Dec) (09/Nov) (09/Nov) (08/Sep) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION High 09/Nov/2016 (Peak) High 10/Nov/ High 01/Dec/ High 02/Dec/ Pivot line (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET

7 Page 7 of 7 HSIZ6 (Hang Seng Dec Futures) Exp. Date: 29 December 2016 Rebound berkembang setelah mampu bertahan di atas area crucial support di Rebound hadapi area resistance di Target uptick di DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 02 Dec Dec Nov (HSIZ6) Nov (HSIZ6) Nov (HSIX6) Nov Nov WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (01/Dec) (02/Dec) (01/Dec) (02/Dec) (01/Nov) (09/Nov) (09/Sep) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION High 02/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) High 02/Nov/ High 09/Nov/2016 (Peak) High 01/Dec/ Low 28/Nov/ Low 25/Nov/ Reaction low (1-D chart) Pivot line (1-D chart) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS TARGET