MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

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1 z Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Dolar menguat ke level tertinggi lebih dari 2 pekan terhadap sejumlah rival utamanya pada hari Jumat dipicu rilis optimis data ekonomi AS, dimana telah menekan harga minyak pasca catat penguatannya dalam 3 hari. Wall Street melemah, dengan indeks Dow turun 1% menyusul penurunan harga minyak tekan saham sektor energi. Data menunjukkan retail sales AS bulan April mencatat kenaikan terbesarnya selama setahun, mengisyaratkan ekonomi kembali meraih momentumnya pasca pertumbuhannya hampir mandeg di kuartal pertama. Indeks sentimen konsumen AS dari University of Michigan juga menunjukkan kenaikan 6,8 poin ke angka 95,8 yang adalah level tertinggi sejak Juni lalu. Menyusul indikasi kesiapan BOJ untuk melakukan intervensi ke pasar valas, maka data PDB-Q1 Jepang pada hari Rabu akan dicermati pasar. Dihari yang sama (Kamis dini hari) investor juga akan mencermati FOMC minutes untuk memperoleh kejelasan mengenai waktu pelaksanaan kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed, yang sementara ini diprediksi baru akan dinaikkan pada bulan September. Sementara data pekerjaan Inggris (Rabu) diprediksi mengalami penurunan terkait kehati-hatian investor jelang voting Brexit bulan Juni. Senin 16 Mei 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV N/A KR Trade Balance Revised Apr N/A B JP Corp Goods Price MM Apr 0.2 % US NY Fed Manufacturing May 7.25 IND US NAHB Housing Market Idx May 59 IND US Net L-T Flows Exswaps Mar N/A B US Foreign Buying T-Bonds Mar N/A B US Overall Net Capital Flow Mar N/A B US Net L-T Flows Incl. Swaps Mar N/A B 60.9 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta Indonesia (021) Fax (021)

2 Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 10/02/ /05/2016 (GMT) Cndl; EUR=; Bid 13/05/2016; 1,1375; 1,1380; 1,1281; 1,1305 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 1,1369 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 1, Price 1,15 1,14 1,13 Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 36, ,12 1,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 Pergerakan lanjutkan tekanan Rangkaian turun level high RSI melemah Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 13/05/2016; 0, Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May May May May May (11/May) (13/May) (03/May) (13/May) (12/Apr) (25/Apr) (03/May) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on hourly chart High May High May High May Low Apr Reaction low on daily chart Low Mar Reaction low on daily chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

3 Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP) Area support di masih berpotensi diuji lagi Pola bullish trend channel berpotensi dukung reli berlanjut menuju target uptick di 110 May May May May May (13/May) (09/May) (13/May) (03/May) (01/Apr) (29/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 01/Apr/ Horizontal resistance Pivot line (1-H chart) High 13/May/ Horizontal support Pivot line (1-H chart) Low 09/May/ Low 06/May/2016 (Reaction low) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Area minor trendline support di pecah Koreksi berpotensi uji area 1.43 May May May UNCH May May (12/May) (13/May) (03/May) (13/May) (29/Apr) (06/Apr) (04/Jan) (29/Feb) ANALYSIS & Trendline resistance Pivot line High 06/May/2016 (Reaction high) High 13/May/ Low 21/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) Low 19/Apr/ Low 18/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) Low 14/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Rebound sedang uji area resistance di Pola Doji star berpotensi dukung sinyal bullish May May May May May UNCH (13/May) (12/May) (13/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (12/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & The level of psychology High 16/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) Minor trendline resistance Pivot line Low 06/May/ Low 05/May/ Low 04/May/ Low 03/May/2016 (Bottom) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

6 Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 30/12/ /05/2016 (GMT) EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 0,7481 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 0,7558 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 13/05/2016; 0,7323; 0,7325; 0,7251; 0, Price 0,78 0,77 0, , RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 24,295 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 13/05/2016; -0,0451 Value Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei ,74 0,73 0,72 0,71 0,7 0,69 0,68 Pergerakan dibawah pivot line dan terbatas Rangkaian turun level high RSI turun May May May May May (11/May) (13/May) (03/May) (13/May) (20/Apr) (07/Apr) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May High May High May High May Reaction low on daily chart Low Mar Reaction low on daily chart Reaction low on daily chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

7 Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 23/12/ /05/2016 (GMT) Cndl; NZD=; Bid 13/05/2016; 0,6815; 0,6830; 0,6754; 0,6772 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 0,6849 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 0, Price 0,7 0,69 0, RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 37,423 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 13/05/2016; -0,0081 Value Des 15 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei ,67 0,66 0,65 0,64 0,63 0,62 Tekanan turun untuk dekati area bawah trend channel RSI merosot May May May May May (09/May) (10/May) (03/May) (10/May) (19/Apr) (05/Apr) (19/Apr) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on hourly chart High May High May High May Low May Low Mar Reaction low on daily chart Reaction low on daily chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

8 Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP) Koreksi sedang uji area support di Target downtick di May May May May May (12/May) (09/May) (12/May) (06/May) (01/Apr) (18/Apr) (29/Jan) (06/May) ANALYSIS & High 28/Apr/2016 (Peak) Pivot line Pivot line High 13/May/ Pivot line Low 09/May/ Low 06/May/2016 (Bottom) Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

9 Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Pola Doji star dukung sinyal bullish Area resistance di berpotensi diuji lagi WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE (09/May) (12/May) (09/May) (03/May) (05/Apr) (29/Apr) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 05/Apr/2016 (Peak) High 08/Apr/ Trendline resistance Horizontal resistance Low 13/May/ Pivot line Low 04/May/ Pivot line BUY SELL --- STOP LOSS

10 Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= /02/ /05/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs Cndl; XAU=; Bid 13/05/2016; 1.263,2100; 1.276,2000; 1.263,1100; 1.273,2000 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 1.264,2852 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 1.253,2155 RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 53,581 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 13/05/2016; 35,7000 Value Ozs Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei Rangkaian turun level low harian Lanjutkan pergerakan turun trend channel RSI flat AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) May May May May May (09/May) (10/May) (02/May) (10/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May High May High May High May Low May Low May Reaction low on hourly chart Reaction low on hourly chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

11 Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= Cndl; XAG=; Bid 13/05/2016; 16,9730; 17,1750; 16,8300; 17,0900 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 16,9933 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 16, /02/ /05/2016 (GMT) RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 48,766 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 13/05/2016; 0,1010 Value Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Price Ozs 17, , , , ,5 Rangkaian turun level highlow harian RSI flat Help desk closing price (17.092) previous (16.959) May May May May May (11/May) (13/May) (02/May) (13/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May High May High May High May Low May Reaction low on daily chart Low Apr Reaction low on daily chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

12 Page 12 of 12 Daily CLM6 CLM6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 May Reuters) /02/ /05/2016 (NYC) Price Bbl Cndl; CLM6; Trade Price 13/05/2016; 46,41; 46,49; 45,75; 46,37 WMA; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 42,86 EMA; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 44, RSI; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 64,500 Value Bbl Mom; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 14 13/05/2016; 3,73 Value Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei Tekanan turun mewarnai pergerakan harian Jauhi level tertinggi sebelumnya RSI merosot May May May May May (12/May) (10/May) (12/May) (10/May) (29/Apr) (05/Apr) (12/May) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & High Nov 09, High Nov 11, Reaction high on daily chart (Nov 25, 2015) High Nov 30, Low May Low May Low May Low Apr 26 BUY SELL STOP LOSS