ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Transkripsi

1 ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 5 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Saham Asia rebound dan USD menguat pada hari Senin setelah FBI mengatakan pihaknya berpijak pada rekomendasi sebelumnya bahwa tidak ada indikasi kriminal pada persoalan penggunaan server pribadi Hillary Clinton untuk kerja pemerintah. Berita tersebut telah menghapus hambatan pada kampanye presiden Hillary dua hari sebelum pilpres, dan mendorong indeks berjangka S&P 500 naik 1,2%, sebuah kenaikan yang menghentikan koreksinya selama 9 hari berturutan penurunan terlamanya selama lebih dari 35 tahun. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang bertambah 0,9%, kenaikan terbesar dalam 3 minggu. Saham Jepang naik 1,2%, kenaikan terbesarnya dalam 7 pekan. Pasar juga memprediksi suku bunga The Fed akan naik bulan depan setelah laporan pemerintah pada Jumat lalu yang menunjukkan naiknya jumlah lowongan kerja dan upah di bulan Oktober. Eropa: Saham Eropa menguat pada hari Senin, didukung oleh kenaikan tajam saham perbankan, menyusul berita bahwa Hillary Clinton tidak dikenai sanksi hukum atas penggunaan server pribadinya untuk kerja pemerintah. Indeks STOXX 600 ditutup naik 1,5%. Pekan lalu indeks catat kerugian mingguan terbesarnya sejak Februari akibat ketidakpastian soal kemungkinan munculnya pemenang pilpres AS. Clinton dipandang akan memberikan kepastian dan stabilitas bagi investor. Bursa Inggris juga ditutup naik, didukung oleh saham pertambangan dan juga saham keuangan. Indeks FTSE yang naik hampir 8% tahun ini, ditutup naik 1,7% kemarin pasca terkoreksi dalam 5 sesi bertutuan di hari Jumat ke level terendah 7 pekan. AS & Global Markets: Bursa global menguat pada hari Senin, demikian juga dengan USD, menempatkannya pada kenaikan terbesarnya dalam beberapa pekan setelah FBI menyatakan tidak ada indikasi kriminal pada Hillary Clinton terkait penggunaan server pribadinya. Hal ini memberi momentum baru dan menghilangkan awan hitam kampanye presiden hanya 2 hari jelang pemungutan suara pilpres AS, berhasil mengangkat indeks S&P 500 untuk naik lebih dari 2%. Kondisi ini memicu tekanan jual pada emas dan Treasury AS. Sementara USD melonjak 0,73% terhadap sejumlah rivalnya setelah merosot 1,3% pekan lalu. Pekan ini data stok minyak mingguan AS dan data perdagangan Cina perlu diperhatikan untuk melihat perkembangan kesehatan ekonomi global. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH (29/Dec/89) (03/May/11) (30/Oct/07) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH (24/Jun/2015) (24/Apr/2015) (27/Apr/2015) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH (04/Jan/16) (07/Sep/16) (09/Sep/16) (15/Aug/16) (15/Aug/16) (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW (24/Jun/16) (20/Jan/16) (12/Feb/16) (20/Jan/16) (11/Feb/16) (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW (16/Jan/2015) (29/Sep/2015) (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW (06/Jul/50) (16/Jun/98) (31/Aug/67) (17/Jan/55) (23/Nov./82) (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 07 November 2016 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI / 2.08%.N /1.61% /.SPX / 2.22%.KS /0.80% /.IXIC / 2.37%.HSI /0.70% JPY= / 1.29% /.SSEC /0.26% KRW= / 0.02% /CLc1 (Oil) / 2.00% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

2 Page 2 of 5 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV 06~07Nov N/A CN FX Reserves (Monthly) Oct t 3.17 Mon/07-Nov 05:30 AU AIG Construction Index Oct 45.9 N/A ind :30 AU ANZ Newspaper Job Ads Oct N/A ind N/A 07:30 AU ANZ Internet Job Ads Oct 1.0 N/A ind :30 HK FX Reserves Oct N/A b :00 US Employment Trends Oct N/A ind Tue/08-Nov 03:00 US Consumer Credit Sep b N/A CN Exports YY Oct -6.0 % -10 N/A CN Imports YY Oct -1.0 % -1.9 N/A CN Trade Balance USD Oct b :50 JP Foreign Reserves Oct N/A b :30 AU NAB Business Conditions Oct N/A ind 8 07:30 AU NAB Business Confidence Oct N/A ind 6 12:00 JP Coincident Indicator MM Sep N/A ind :00 JP Leading Indicator Sep N/A ind :00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index Oct 95 ind :45 US Fed's Evans Speaks on Econ & Policy Nov 23:20 US Fed's Evans Speaks on Econ & Policy Nov Wed/09-Nov 06:00 KR Unemployment Rate Oct N/A % ~10Nov 06:30 AU Consumer Sentiment Nov N/A % :50 JP Bank Lending YY Oct N/A % :50 JP Current Account NSA JPY Sep b :30 CN PPI YY Oct 0.8 % :30 CN CPI MM Oct 2.1 % :30 CN CPI YY Oct 0.0 % :00 JP Economy Watchers Poll* Oct 44.4 ind :00 US Wholesale Inventory (y), R MM Sep 0.2 % :00 US Wholesale Sales MM Sep 0.5 % :30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e N/A m :30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e N/A m :30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stock w/e N/A m ~20Nov N/A CN FDI (YTD) Oct N/A % ~15Nov N/A CN M2 Money Supply YY Oct 11.4 % ~15Nov N/A CN New Yuan Loans Oct b ~15Nov N/A CN Outstanding Loan Growth Oct 13.0 % 13.0 Thu/10-Nov 00:30 US Fed's Kashkari Speaks in Wisconsin Nov 05:50 JP BOJ Summary Oct. 31-Nov.1 Meet Nov 06:00 AU Consumer Inflation Expectation Nov N/A % :50 JP Machinery Orders MM Sep -0.8 % :50 JP Machinery Orders YY Sep 3.5 % :30 AU Housing Finance* Sep -2.0 % :30 AU Invest Housing Finance* Sep N/A % :00 US Fed's Williams Speaks on Econ Outlook SF 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 260 k :30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e N/A k :30 US Continued Jobless Claims w/e m US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks N/A KR Bank of Korea Base Rate Nov N/A % 1.25 Fri/11-Nov 02:00 US Federal Budget. $ Oct b :00 JP Reuters Tankan DI Nov N/A ind 10 15:30 HK GDP QQ Q3 N/A % :30 HK GDP YY Q3 N/A % :00 US FOMC Member Fischer Speaks 22:00 US U Michigan Expectations Preliminary Nov 77.3 ind :00 US U Michigan Sentiment Preliminary Nov 87.5 ind :00 US U Michigan Conditions Preliminary Nov ind All Day US Veterans Day/Bank Holiday (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory,

3 Page 3 of 5 SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) Last Trading Date: 12 Dec Rebound tajam dekati peak level di setelah area support di (23.6% Fibo. Retracement of wave ) masih efektif Sementara area trendline support di sekitar DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 07 Nov SSIpmZ Nov SSIamZ Nov SSIpmZ Nov SSIamZ Nov SSIpmZ Nov SSIamZ Nov SSIpmZ Nov SSIamZ Nov SSIpmZ Nov SSIamZ UNCH UNCH (07/Nov) (07/Nov) (01/Nov) (04/Nov) (27/Oct) (03/Oct) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & High 25/Apr/2016 (Peak) High 28/Apr/2016 (Reaction high) High 28/Oct/2016 (Peak) Reaction high (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Low 04/Nov/2016 (Reaction low) Low 14/Oct/2016 (Bottom) Low 04/Oct/2016 BUY STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 5 KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) Exp. Date: 08 Dec Rebound hadapi trendline resistance di sekitar Strong resistance di sekitar Short-term support di sekitar DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 07 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov UNCH UNCH Oct (07/Nov) (07/Nov) (01/Nov) (03/Nov) (06/Oct) (17/Oct) (08/Sep) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & High 10/Oct/ Horizontal resistance High 26/Oct/ Reaction high (1-H chart) Low 04/Nov/ Low 03/Nov/ Low 19/Sep/2016 (Bottom) Low 05/Aug/2016 BUY STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 5 HSIX6 (Hang Seng Nov Futures) Exp. Date: 29 November 2016 Area lowerline dari bearish trend channel masih cukup efektif Short-term support di sekitar Waspadai indeks dibuka menguat di sekitar DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 07 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Oct (HSIX6) Oct (HSIX6) (07/Nov) (07/Nov) (01/Nov) (04/Nov) (11/Oct) (31/Oct) (09/Sep) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & High 11/Oct/2016 (Peak) High 25/Oct/2016 (Peak) High 27/Oct/ Reaction high (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-H chart) Pivot line Reaction low (1-H chart) Low 11/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) BUY STOP LOSS