WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Transkripsi

1 Selasa 10 Mei 2016 ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 5 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Bursa saham Asia sebagian besar melemah pada hari Senin pasca rilis mengecewakan data pekerjaan AS di akhir pekan lalu dan juga data perdagangan Cina yang lebih buruk dari perkiraan, menambah kegalauan investor perihal kesehatan ekonomi global. Indeks Kospi turun 0,5% dan Shanghai merosot hampir 3% setelah data ekspor dan impor turun lebih rendah dari perkiraan di bulan April. Bursa di Malaysia, Indonesia dan Thailand juga melemah. Namun indeks Nikkei berhasil melawan trend setelah ditutup menguat 0,7% menyusul reli yen telihat terhambat saat ini. Eropa: Bursa Eropa rebound pada hari Senin setelah terkoreksi selama 2 pekan, didukung oleh naiknya saham di Jerman dan Yunani, dengan bursa Athena naik oleh ekspektasi kemajuan dalam menanggulangi beban utang Yunani. Indeks FTSEurofirst 300 naik 0,5% ke 1309,10 meskipun masih mencatat turun 9% sepanjang tahun Sedangkan bursa saham Inggris masih melanjutkan deprsiasinya, memperluas penurunan mingguan terbesarnya sejak Februari, setelah reli pada saham pariwisata gagal mengimbangi tekanan pada saham pertambangan. Indeks FTSE 100 ditutup turun 0,2% setelah merosot 1,9% pekan lalu, dengan penurunan ini sekaligus catat koreksi 3 pekan berturut-turut. Indeks pertambangan Inggris anjlok 7,9% setelah rilis buruk data perdagangan Cina dan menguatnya dolar. AS & Global Markets: Yen jatuh terhadap USD pada hari Senin setelah Jepang memberikan sinyal siap untuk melakukan intervensi di pasar valas, sementara koreksi tajam harga minyak telah menekan ekuitas, menyusul ekspektasi bahwa stok minyak AS akan kembali cetak rekor tertinggi. Indeks saham AS ditutup beragam menyusul saham kesehatan mampu mengcounter penurunan 1,2% pada sektor energi S&P. Yield Treasury AS juga merosot setelah investor menurunkan estimasi bahwa The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juni, usai rilis buruk data pekerjaan AS periode April pada Jumat lalu. Global Economy Weekahead Rilis buruk data perdagangan Cina kian menambah suram prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS. Untuk itu data retail sales dan survey sentimen konsumen dari University of Michigan AS akan dicermati. Perhatikan juga komentar dari sejumlah petinggi Fed pekan ini, termasuk dari Boston, Cleveland and Kansas City. Sementara sidang BoE (Kamis) diprediksi tidak akan menghasilkan perubahan kebijakan. Pembuat kebijakan BoE kemungkinan akan disibukkan oleh pelaksanaan referendum pada 23 Juni mengenai apakah Inggris harus tetap menjadi anggota Uni Eropa. BoE kemungkinan akan menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi namun menahan proyeksi inflasinya dalam laporan kuartalan. Bank sentral Korea, Thailand dan Filipina juga akan bersidang pekan ini, dan diprediksi tidak ada perubahan kebijakan. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH (29/Dec/89) (03/May/11) (30/Oct/07) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH (24/Jun/2015) (24/Apr/2015) (27/Apr/2015) (19/May/2015) (20/May/2015) (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH LOW (12/Feb/16) (20/Jan/16) (12/Feb/16) (20/Jan/16) (11/Feb/16) (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW (16/Jan/2015) (29/Sep/2015) (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW (06/Jul/50) (16/Jun/98) (31/Aug/67) (17/Jan/55) (23/Nov./82) (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 09 Mei 2016 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI / 0.20%.N /0.68% /.SPX / 0.08%.KS /0.44% /.IXIC / 0.30%.HSI /0.23% JPY= / 1.13% /.SSEC /2.76% KRW= / 0.51% /CLc1(Oil) / 3.18% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

2 Page 2 of 5 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV SUN/08-May N/A CN Exports YY Apr % 11.5 N/A CN Imports YY Apr % -7.6 N/A CN Trade Balance USD Apr B MON/09-May JP BoJ Minutes JP Overtime Pay Mar -0.2 N/A % AU ANZ Newspaper Job Ads Apr -6.2 N/A % AU ANZ Internet Job Ads Apr -0.7 N/A % JP Consumer Confid Index Apr IND US Employment Trends Apr N/A IND TUE/10-May N/A CN FDI (YTD) Apr N/A % ~15 May N/A CN M2 Money Supply YY Apr 13.5 % ~15 May N/A CN New Yuan Loans Apr B ~15 May N/A CN Outstanding Loan Growth Apr 14.8 % CN PPI YY Apr -3.8 % CN CPI YY Apr 2.4 % CN CPI MM Apr -0.2 % US NFIB Business Optimism Idx Apr 93.2 IND US JOLTS Job Openings Mar M US Wholesale Inventories MM Mar 0.1 % US Wholesale Sales MM Mar 0.3 % JP Foreign Reserves Apr N/A B WED/11-May KR Unemployment Rate Apr N/A % AU Housing Finance Mar -1.5 % AU Invest Housing Finance Mar N/A % JP Coincident Indicator MM Mar N/A IND JP Leading Indicator Mar N/A IND US EIA Crude Inventories w/e N/A M US Federal Budget $ Apr B THU/12-May KR Export Price Growth YY Apr N/A % KR Import Price Growth YY Apr N/A % JP Bank Lending YY Apr N/A % JP Current Account NSA JPY Mar N/A B N/A JP Economy Watchers Poll Apr 44.9 IND KR L-Money Supply Growth Mar N/A % US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 270 K US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E N/A K US Continued Jobless Claims W/E M US Import Prices MM Apr 0.5 % US Export Prices MM Apr 0.1 % US FOMC Rosengren Speaks US FOMC George Speaks FRI/13-May N/A KR BoK Base Rate May N/A % HK GDP QQ Q1 N/A % HK GDP YY Q1 N/A % US PPI Final Demand YY Apr 0.3 % US PPI Final Demand MM Apr 0.3 % US PPI Core YY Apr 0.9 % US PPI Core MM Apr 0.1 % US Retail Sales MM Apr 0.8 % US Retail Control Apr 0.3 % US Business Inventories MM Mar 0.2 % US UoM Sentiment Prelim May 90.0 IND N/A US UoM Conditions Prelim May IND N/A US UoM Expectations Prelim May 78.1 IND N/A SAT/14-May CN Urban Investment (ytd) YY Apr 10.9 % CN Industrial Output YY Apr 6.5 % CN Retail Sales YY Apr 10.5 % 10.5 (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX-

3 Selasa 10 Mei 2016 ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 5 SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) Last Trading Date: 13 Jun Masih bergerak dalam area symmetrical triangle Rebound berkembang setelah membentuk double bottom di Target uptick di DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 09 May SSIpmM May SSIamM May SSIpmM May SSIamM May SSIpmM May SSIamM May SSIpmM May SSIamM May SSIpmM May SSIamM (09/May) (09/May) (09/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (07/Apr) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & Pivot line (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-D chart) Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Double Bottom Low 12/Apr/ Low 11/Apr/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

4 Page 4 of 5 KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) Exp. Date: 09 Jun Koreksi sedang uji trendline support di sekitar 242 Target downtick di 241 Waspadai RSI di zona oversold (26) DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 09 May May H O L I D A Y 05 May H O L I D A Y 04 May May (09/May) (09/May) (02/May) (09/May) (20/Apr) (08/Apr) (20/Apr) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & Triple Top Pivot line Pivot line Pivot line Pivot line Low 08/Apr/2016 (Bottom) Pivot line Low 29/Feb/2016 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 5 HSIK6 (Hang Seng May Futures) Exp. Date: 30 May 2016 Daily trend mulai berubah bearish, namun RSI sudah oversold (24) Target downtick di DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 09 May May May May May May H O L I D A Y (09/May) (09/May) (03/May) (06/May) (21/Apr) (08/Apr) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart High 09/May/ Reaction high on 1-H chart Low 09/Mar/2016 (Reaction low) Pivot line (1-D chart) Pivot line (1-D chart) Low 02/Mar/2016 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS