MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

Transkripsi

1 z Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Harga minyak naik semakin mendekati angka $50 per barel pada hari Rabu setelah penurunan yang lebih tajam dari perkiraan pada data stok minyak mentah, mengangkat saham energi dan pasar saham global. Sedangkan minat pada obligasi pemerintah AS menurun seiring meningkatnya kemungkinan The Fed menaikkan suku bunga secepatnya di bulan Juni atau Juli. Harga emas terjun ke level terendah 7 pekan ditengah ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Fed. Saham perbankan naik, dukung penguatan bursa Eropa setelah menteri keuangan zona euro setuju dengan Yunani dan IMF mengenai kesepakatan yang akan membahas permintaan Athena untuk bantuan utang. Fokus perhatian akan tertuju pada pernyataan Kepala Fed Janet Yellen di sebuah acara panel yang diselenggarakan oleh Harvard University pada hari Jumat. Dengan tidak adanya rilis data PDB-Q2 AS hingga akhir Juli nanti, maka pasar akan mencermati data revisi pertama PDB-Q1 pada hari Jumat. Sementara berkenaan dengan referendum Brexit dan dampaknya, maka data PDB-Q1 Inggris (Kamis) akan dicermati untuk melihat dampak yang terjadi pada investasi bisnis. Sidang bank sentral Kanada pada hari Rabu diprediksi unchanged meskipun terjadi kenaikan pada data inflasi tahunan di bulan April. Kamis 26 Mei 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV KR Consumer Sentiment Ind May 99 N/A IND JP Reuters Tankan DI May N/A IND AU Capital Expenditure Q1-3.0 % NZ Annual Budget Release CH Industrial Orders YY Q1 N/A % HK Exports Apr N/A % GB BBA Mortgage Approvals Apr N/A K GB GDP 2nd Release QQ Q1 0.4 % US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 275 K US Durable Goods Apr 0.5 % US Markit Comp Flash PMI May N/A IND US Pending Homes Index Apr N/A IND US KC Fed Manufacturing May N/A IND -8 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta Indonesia (021) Fax (021)

2 Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 20/01/ /06/2016 (GMT) Cndl; EUR=; Bid 26/05/2016; 1,1152; 1,1165; 1,1142; 1,1156 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 26/05/2016; 1,1269 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 26/05/2016; 1, Price 1,15 1,14 1,13 1, ,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 1,07 Rangkaian turun level highlow harian Dekati trendline dibawahnya RSI flat Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 26/05/2016; 27,109 Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 26/05/2016; -0, Jan 16 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May May May FLAT May May (23/May) (25/May) (03/May) (25/May) (12/Apr) (25/Apr) (03/May) (05/Jan) High May Reaction high on 1-H chart High May High May Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on daily chart Low Jan Low Jan 05 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

3 Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP) Bullish trend channel Target uptick di Trendline support di Support kunci di May May May May May (25/May) (23/May) (20/May) (03/May) (01/Apr) (29/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) High 01/Apr/ Horizontal resistance Pivot line (1-H chart) High 20/May/2016 (Peak) Trendline support (1-H chart) Horizontal support (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-H chart) Low 09/May/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Reli breakout 1.47 dan saat ini sedang menuju Key Resistance di (SMA200) Target uptick di Waspadai RSI memasuki zona overbought May May May May May (25/May) (23/May) (03/May) (16/May) (29/Apr) (06/Apr) (04/Jan) (29/Feb) Pivot line High 29/Dec/ High 04/Jan/2016 (Reaction high) High 03/May/2016 (Peak) Low 25/May/ Low 24/May/ Low 18/May/ Low 16/May/2016 (Bottom) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Bullish trend channel Namun RSI di zona overbought (73) Target uptick di 1.0 May May May May UNCH May (25/May) (23/May) (25/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (12/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) High 02/Feb/ High 03/Feb/ High 10/Mar/2016 (Peak) The level of psychology Pivot line Low 13/May/ Low 06/May/ Low 05/May/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

6 Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 25/01/ /06/2016 (GMT) EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 26/05/2016; 0,7327 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 26/05/2016; 0,7459 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 26/05/2016; 0,7194; 0,7200; 0,7186; 0, Price 0,78 0,77 0, ,75 0, ,73 0,72 0,71 0,7 0,69 Pergerakan trend channel dekati area dibawahnya Rangkaian turun level high 0,68 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 26/05/2016; 27,769 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 26/05/2016; -0,0170 Value Jan 16 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May May May May May (23/May) (24/May) (03/May) (24/May) (20/Apr) (07/Apr) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) Reaction high on daily chart High May Reaction high on 1-H chart High May Low May Reaction low on daily chart Reaction low on daily chart Reaction low on daily chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

7 Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Hourly NZD= 1:00 04/05/ :00 26/05/2016 (GMT) Cndl; NZD=; Bid 22:00 25/05/2016; 0,6738; 0,6738; 0,6724; 0,6724 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 22:00 25/05/2016; 0,6749 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 22:00 25/05/2016; 0,6745 Price 0,693 0,69 0, ,684 RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22:00 25/05/2016; 27,668 Value 0,681 0,678 0,675 0,672 0,669 Berusaha untuk dekati level tertinggi sebelumnya RSI naik Chart last price Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 22:00 25/05/2016; -0,002 Value Mei 2016 May May May May May FLAT (23/May) (24/May) (03/May) (24/May) (19/Apr) (05/Apr) (19/Apr) (20/Jan) High May High May High May High May Low May Reaction low on daily chart Reaction low on daily chart Low Feb 03 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

8 Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP) Pola symmetrical triangle Berpotensi bergerak di kisaran May May May May May (23/May) (24/May) (12/May) (06/May) (01/Apr) (18/Apr) (29/Jan) (06/May) Pivot line Pivot line High 17/May/2016 (Reaction high) High 23/May/ Low 09/May/ Low 06/May/2016 (Bottom) Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom) Low 25/Feb/2016 (Bottom) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

9 Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Koreksi sedang uji area 1.30 Key support di sekitar Strong support di WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE (24/May) (25/May) (24/May) (03/May) (05/Apr) (29/Apr) (20/Jan) (03/May) High 16/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) High 24/Mar/2016 (Peak) High 05/Apr/2016 (Peak) High 25/May/ Low 19/May/ Low 18/May/ Low 17/May/2016 (Reaction low) Low 12/May/2016 (Reaction low) BUY --- SELL STOP LOSS

10 Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= /02/ /05/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs Cndl; XAU=; Bid 25/05/2016; 1.226,6000; 1.229,8100; 1.217,2500; 1.223,7800 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 25/05/2016; 1.255,2824 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 25/05/2016; 1.253,8389 RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 25/05/2016; 24,390 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 25/05/2016; -53,8800 Value Ozs Feb 16 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei Break area bearish trend channel harian Rangkaian turun level high harian RSI merosot AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) May May May May May (23/May) (25/May) (02/May) (25/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (04/Jan) High May High May Reaction high on 1-H chart High May Low May Low Apr Reaction low on daily chart Pivot Line BUY SELL STOP LOSS

11 Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= Cndl; XAG=; Bid 25/05/2016; 16,1980; 16,3550; 16,1400; 16,2700 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 25/05/2016; 16,7496 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 25/05/2016; 16, /03/ /05/2016 RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 25/05/2016; 30,051 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 25/05/2016; -1,0560 Value Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Price Ozs 17, , , ,5 14 Pelemahan dekati area trendline dibawahnya Rangkaian turun level high RSI flat Helpdesk closing price (16.287) previous (16.182) May May May May May (23/May) (25/May) (02/May) (25/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (12/Jan) High May High May High May High May Low Apr Low Apr Low Apr Low Apr 11 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

12 Page 12 of 12 CLN6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 21 Jun Reuters) Daily CLN6 16/02/ /06/2016 (NYC) Cndl; CLN6; Trade Price 25/05/2016; 49,09; 49,75; 48,65; 49,74 WMA; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 55 25/05/2016; 45,25 EMA; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 20 25/05/2016; 47, Price Bbl RSI; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 25/05/2016; 72,974 Value Bbl Mom; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 14 25/05/2016; 4,83 Value Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei Berlanjut dekati area puncak trend channel harian Rangkaian naik level highlow harian RSI naik May May May May May (25/May) (23/May) (25/May) (10/May) (29/Apr) (05/Apr) (25/May) (11/Feb) Reaction high on daily chart High Oct 12, Reaction high on daily chart High Nov 05, Low May Low May Low May Low May 12 BUY SELL STOP LOSS