MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

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1 z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK AS & Global Markets: Barometer untuk pasar ekuitas global (MSCI) tembus level tertinggi 1 pekan pada hari Selasa, terangkat oleh naiknya harga komoditas dan rebound tajam pada bursa Eropa serta perolehan laba korporasi yang solid. Laporan keuangan yang lebih baik dari perkiraan dari UnitedHealth Group Inc, Netflix Inc dan Goldman Sachs Group berhasil angkat Wall Street. Earnings S&P 500 saat ini diprediksi naik tipis di Q3, membalik proyeksi sebelumnya terjadi penurunan profit kuartalan. Ini akan menjadi kuartal pertama sejak 2014 bahwa earnings dan revenue untuk perusahaan-perusahaan S&P 500 meningkat. Sementara itu laporan inflasi AS menunjukkan underlying inflation hanya sedikit moderat di bulan September, mengisyaratkan kemungkinan pencapaian target inflasi The Fed sebesar 2% akan lebih lama dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Harga minyak stabil sedangkan emas naik seiring bergerak datar. Weekahead : Sidang ECB pekan ini (Kamis) akan dicermati pasar, meskipun diprediksi masih akan tahan suku bunganya. ECB sedang menghadapi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lemah dan inflasi yang super rendah. Pertanyaannya adalah, apakah ECB akan memperpanjang program pembelian aset yang sebesar 80 miliar euro per bulan, yang akan selesai pada bulan Maret, atau akan memulai kembali program stimulus yang baru. Pasar juga akan menyoroti data PDB-Q3 Cina (Rabu) yang diprediksi catat pertumbuhan stabil di 6,7%, menyusul meningkatnya anggaran belanja dan booming properti diimbangi oleh lemahnya ekspor. Sementara itu, ekonomi Kanada mencatat rebound di kuartal saat ini, memberikan bank sentral Kanada kesempatan untuk mempertahankan kebijakan moneternya pada sidangnya hari Rabu. Rabu 19 Oktober 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 09:00 CN Retail Sales YY Sep 10.6 % :00 CN GDP YY Q3 6.7 % :00 CN GDP QQ SA Q3 1.8 % :30 GB Claimant Count Unem Change Sep 3.0 k :30 GB ILO Unemployment Rate Aug 4.9 % :30 GB Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY Aug 2.3 % :30 US Building Permits: Number Sep m :30 US Housing Starts Number MM Sep m :00 CA BoC Rate Decision N/A 0.50 % :30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e m :30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e m Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta Indonesia, Phone :

2 Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= Cndl; EUR=; Bid 19/10/2016; 1,0979; 1,0982; 1,0970; 1,0975 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 19/10/2016; 1,1098 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 19/10/2016; 1, /07/ /10/2016 (JAK) Price 1,135 1,13 1,125 1,12 Value RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 19/10/2016; ,115 1,11 1,105 1,1 1,095 1,09 Lanjut tekanan harian pada bearish trend channel Rangkaian turun level low harian RSI dekati area jenuh jual Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 19/10/2016; -0, Jul 16 Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (03/Oct) (17/Oct) (08/Sep) (21/Sep) (03/May) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

3 Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Koreksi tembus support line dari trend channel Perhatikan area trendline support di sekitar Key support di sekitar Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct (17/Oct) (18/Oct) (12/Oct) (03/Oct) (02/Sep) (22/Sep) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & High 25/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) High 27/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) High 28/Jul/ High 13/Oct/2016 (Reaction high) Low 12/Oct/ Low 05/Oct/ Low 04/Oct/ Low 30/Sep/2016 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Perhatikan pola ascending triangle dengan horizontal resistance di Trendline support di sekitar Strong support di Oct Oct UNCH Oct Oct Oct (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (06/Sep) (23/Sep) (24/Jun) (07/Oct) ANALYSIS & High 06/Oct/ High 07/Oct/ Reaction high (1-H chart) Reaction high (1-H chart) Low 17/Oct/2016 (Reaction low) Low 11/Oct/ Low 07/Oct/ Low 22/Mar/1985 (Weekly chart) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Perhatikan pola sideways channel di kisaran Major trendline di sekitar Strong resistance di Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct (18/Oct) (18/Oct) (13/Oct) (03/Oct) (01/Sep) (29/Sep) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 03/Feb/ High 10/Mar/2016 (Peak) Pivot line High 27/Jul/2016 (Peak) Low 11/Oct/ Low 05/Oct/ Low 03/Oct/ Low 26/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

6 Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 21/07/ /10/2016 (JAK) Price 0, EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 19/10/2016; 0,7611 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 19/10/2016; 0,7602 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 19/10/2016; 0,7666; 0,7673; 0,7661; 0, RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 19/10/2016; 65,501 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 19/10/2016; 0,0037 Value Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober ,764 0,76 0,756 0,752 0,748 0,744 0,74 Koreksi dalam harian pada bearish trend channel Dekati level tertinggi dalam bulanan Hourly tunjukkan penguatan Oct Oct Oct Oct FLAT Oct (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (04/Oct) (13/Oct) (08/Sep) (13/Sep) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart (May, 22, 15) Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Low Oct Low Oct Reaction low on 1-H chart Low Sept 20 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

7 Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 11/08/ /10/2016 (JAK) Cndl; NZD=; Bid 19/10/2016; 0,7186; 0,7196; 0,7184; 0,7191 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 19/10/2016; 0,7179 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 19/10/2016; 0, Price 0,74 0, RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 19/10/2016; 57,299 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 19/10/2016; -0,0056 Value Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober ,73 0,725 0,72 0,715 0,71 0,705 0,7 Menuju puncak bearish trend channel dalam harian Tunjukkan level tertinggi mingguan Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (04/Oct) (13/Oct) (07/Sep) (26/Sep) (07/Sep) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Low Oct Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

8 Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Koreksi tembus support line dari pola symmetrical triangle Support berikutnya di sekitar Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct (18/Oct) (18/Oct) (06/Oct) (03/Oct) (02/Sep) (21/Sep) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & High 27/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) High 02/Sep/2016 (Peak) High 11/Oct/2016 (Reaction high) Peak level (1-H chart) Low 03/Oct/ Low 30/Sep/2016 (Reaction low) Low 21/Sep/2016 (Bottom) Low 06/Jul/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

9 Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Formasi consecutive lower highs dukung sinyal bearish Key support di sekitar 1.30 Key resistance di 1.33 WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE (17/Oct) (18/Oct) (07/Oct) (18/Oct) (27/Sep) (07/Sep) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) High 09/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) High 07/Oct/2016 (Peak) High 14/Oct/ Low 29/Sep/2016 (Reaction low) Low 22/Sep/2016 (Bottom) Low 09/Sep/ Low 08/Sep/2016 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

10 Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 22/08/ /10/2016 (JAK) Price Ozs Cndl; XAU=; Bid 18/10/2016; 1.256,0000; 1.264,7800; 1.254,3000; 1.262,2400 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 18/10/2016; 1.279,5617 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 18/10/2016; 1.301, RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; 18/10/2016; 39,701 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 18/10/2016; -58,9900 Value Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober Telah break area bearish trend channel harian Capai level tertinggi mingguan AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (07/Sep) (01/Sep) (06/Jul) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart High Oct Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Low Oct Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

11 Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 08/08/ /10/2016 (JAK) Price Ozs Cndl; XAG=; Bid 18/10/2016; 17,4240; 17,7110; 17,4050; 17, EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 18/10/2016; 18, ,5 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 18/10/2016; 18, RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; 18/10/2016; 37,592 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 18/10/2016; -1,5870 Value Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober , ,5 Capai level tertinggi mingguan (17.71) RSI dekat area jenuh jual Hourly tunjukkan peningkatan Helpdesk closing price (17.590) previous (17.429) Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (03/Oct) (06/Oct) (06/Sep) (01/Sep) (04/Jul) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart High Oct High Oct Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

12 Page 12 of 12 CLZ6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 21 Nov Reuters) Daily CLZ /07/ /10/2016 (JAK) Price Bbl 50 Cndl; CLZ6; Trade Price 19/10/2016; 51,09; 51,20; 51,07; 51,17 WMA; CLZ6; Trade Price(Last); 55 19/10/2016; 48,33 EMA; CLZ6; Trade Price(Last); 20 19/10/2016; 49, RSI; CLZ6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 19/10/2016; 63,936 Value Bbl Mom; CLZ6; Trade Price(Last); 14 19/10/2016; 2,77 Value Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober Pergerakan jauhi puncak trend channel harian Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Last price Oct 18 (CLZ6) Oct 18 (CLX6) Oct Oct Oct Oct (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (10/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Sep) (16/Sep) (09/Jun) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS