ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

Transkripsi

1 ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 6 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Saham Asia rebound pada hari Senin menyusul Wall Street raih momentumnya dalam pekan yang penuh dengan laporan earnings. Naiknya saham Taiwan sebesar 0,9% memberi dukungan utama bagi naiknya indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang. Sementara Nikkei naik 0,2% didukung oleh naiknya saham perbankan, setelah Presiden AS Donald Trump memerintahkan untuk menata ulang regulasi dalam industri keuangan usai krisis keuangan hampir 1 dekade lalu. Trump akan bertemu dengan PM Shinzo Abe pada Februari mendatang dengan agenda masalah perdagangan dan mata uang. Eropa: Bursa Eropa melemah pada hari Senin, tertekan oleh saham otomotif dan perbankan. Indeks STOXX 600 turun 0,6% sementara FTSE 100 Inggris juga terkoreksi oleh melemahnya saham energi dan perumahan. Indeks FTSE 100 ditutup melemah 0,2% pasca hit intraday high di 7208,73 (level tertinggi sejak 20 Januari). AS & Global Markets: Bursa AS jatuh di hari Senin kemarin dipimpin oleh turunnya saham sektor energi menyusul merosotnya harga minyak. Saham eropa dan euro juga tertekan oleh ketidakpastian politik global. Investor menunggu rincian lebih lanjut tentang kebijakan ekonomi Presiden Donald Trump, sementara kekhawatiran tetap berlanjut atas politik Perancis menjelang pemilihan presiden pada bulan April. Weekahead: Minggu ini fokus pasar akan tertuju pada data ekonomi Cina, seperti indeks PMI sektor jasa, cadangan devisa dan mungkin angka perdagangan. China tumbuh lebih cepat dari yang diperkirakan 6,8 persen pada kuartal keempat, didorong oleh belanja pemerintah yang lebih tinggi dan besarnya pinjaman perbankan. Tapi ekonomi masih menghadapi resiko dari pendinginan pasar perumahan dan kemungkinan langkah-langkah proteksionis dari Amerika Serikat. Di zona euro, akan ada data produksi industri dari Jerman, Perancis, Spanyol dan Italia. Semuanya diharapkan menunjukkan pertumbuhan. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH (29/Dec/89) (03/May/11) (30/Oct/07) (16/Oct./07) 2016 HIGH (21/Dec/16) (21/Dec/16) (09/Sep/16) (20/Dec/16) (13/Dec/16) (04/Jan/16) 2017 HIGH (06/Jan/2017) (02/Feb/2017) (02/Feb/2017) (10/Jan/2017) 2017 LOW (18/Jan/2017) (02/Jan/2017) (03/Jan/2017) (19/Jan/2017) (03/Jan/2017) (16/Jan/2017) 2016 LOW (24/Jun/16) (20/Jan/16) (12/Feb/16) (20/Jan/16) (11/Feb/16) (27/Jan/16) RECORD LOW (06/Jul/50) (16/Jun/98) (31/Aug/67) (17/Jan/55) (23/Nov./82) (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 06 February 2017 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI / 0.09%.N /0.31% /.SPX / 0.21%.KS /0.24% /.IXIC / 0.06%.HSI /0.95% JPY= / 0.88% /.SSEC /0.55% KRW= / 0.34% /CLc1 (Oil) /1.36% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

2 Page 2 of 6 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV. MON/06-Feb-17 07:00 AU Melbourne Institute Inflation MoM Jan 0.6% % 07:00 AU Melbourne Institute Inflation YoY Jan 2.1% % 07:00 JP Overtime Pay Dec -1.9% % 07:00 JP Labor Cash Earnings YoY Dec 0.1% % 07:00 JP Real Cash Earnings YoY Dec -0.4% % 07:30 AU ANZ Internet Job Ads Jan 4.0% % 07:30 AU Retail Sales MoM Dec -0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0. 07:30 AU Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ Q4 0.9% 0.9% -0.1% 0.0% 14:00 DE Factory Orders MoM Dec 5.2% 0.5% -2.5% -3.6% 14:00 DE Factory Orders WDA YoY Dec 8.1% 4.2% 3.0% 2.0% 15:30 DE Markit Germany Construction PMI Jan :10 EZ Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Jan :10 DE Markit Germany Retail PMI Jan :30 EZ Sentix Investor Confidence Feb :00 US Employment Trends Jan TUE/07-Feb-17 06:50 JP Official Reserve Assets Jan -- $1216.9b 06:50 JP Current Account NSA JPY Dec b b 06:50 JP Bank Lending YY Jan % 07:01 GB BRC Retail Sales YY Jan 0.8% 1.0% 07~10 Feb 08:00 CN Foreign Reserves (Monthly) Jan t 08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Services Jan :00 NZ 2Yr Inflation Expectation Q % 10:30 AU RBA Cash Rate Target 7-Feb 1.50% 1.50% 12:00 JP Economy Watchers Poll SA Jan :00 JP Coincident Indicator MM Dec :00 JP Leading Indicator Dec :30 AU Foreign Reserves Jan -- A$76.1b 13:45 CH Consumer Confidence Q :00 DE Industrial Production SA MoM Dec 0.4% 0.4% 14:00 DE Industrial Production WDA YoY Dec % 15:00 CH Foreign Currency Reserves Jan b 15:30 HK Foreign Reserves Jan -- $386.20b 15:30 GB Halifax House Price MM Jan 0.0% 6.5% 15:30 GB Halifax House Price 3Mths/YY Jan 6.0% 6.5% 07~15 Feb 16:30 GB Mortgage Rate Jan % 19:00 NZ Dairy Prices w/e % 19:00 NZ Milk Auctions w/e T 20:30 CA Building Permits MoM Dec % 20:30 CA Trade Balance C$ Dec 0.35b 0.53b 20:30 CA Exports C$ Dec b 20:30 CA Imports C$ Dec b 20:30 CA Ivey PMI Jan :30 CA Ivey PMI SA Jan :30 US Trade Balance Dec -$45.0b -$45.2b WED/08-Feb-17 02:00 NZ Cen Bank Interest Rate N/A % 03:00 US Consumer Credit Dec $20.00b $24.53b 04:45 NZ Building Consents Dec % 05:30 AU AIG Construction Index Jan :50 JP BOJ Summary of Opinions at Jan Meeting 06:50 JP BoP Current Account Balance Dec b b 06:50 JP BoP Current Account Adjusted Dec b b 06:50 JP Trade Balance BoP Basis Dec 770.0b 313.4b 09:00 CN BoP Current Account Balance Q4 -- $69.3b 10:00 KR L-Money Supply Growth Dec % 20:15 CA Housing Starts. Annualized Jan k 22:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e m 22:30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e m

3 Page 3 of 6 22:30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e m THU/09-Feb-17 03:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate 9-Feb 1.75% 1.75% 04:45 NZ Building Permits MoM Dec % 06:50 JP Machine Orders MoM Dec 3.1% -5.1% 06:50 JP Machine Orders YoY Dec 4.6% 10.4% 07:00 AU HIA New Home Sales MoM Dec % 07:30 AU NAB Business Confidence Q :00 JP Machine Tool Orders YoY Jan % 13:45 CH Unemployment Rate Jan 3.6% 3.5% 13:45 CH Unemployment Rate SA Jan 3.3% 3.3% 14:00 DE Trade Balance Dec 21.4b 21.7b 14:00 DE Current Account Balance Dec b 14:00 DE Exports SA MoM Dec -1.10% 3.90% 14:00 DE Imports SA MoM Dec -1.0% 3.5% 16:00 AU RBA Governor Lowe Speech in Sydney 20:30 CA New Housing Price Index MoM Dec % 20:30 CA New Housing Price Index YoY Dec % 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 250k 246k 20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e k 20:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims w/e 2.060k 2.064m 21:10 US Fed's Bullard Speaks in St. Louis 22:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Dec 0.5% 0.4% 22:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Dec 1.0% 1.0% FRI/10-Feb-17 01:10 US Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Chicago 06:50 JP PPI MoM Jan 0.2% 0.6% 06:50 JP PPI YoY Jan 0.0% -1.2% 07:30 AU RBA Statement on Monetary Policy 07:30 AU Home Loans MoM Dec 1.0% 0.9% 07:30 AU Investment Lending Dec % 11:30 JP Tertiary Industry Index MoM Dec -0.2% 0.2% 16:30 GB Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Dec :30 GB Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Dec :30 GB Trade Balance Dec :30 GB Industrial Production MoM Dec 0.2% 2.1% 16:30 GB Industrial Production YoY Dec 3.2% 2.0% 16:30 GB Manufacturing Production MoM Dec 0.4% 1.3% 16:30 GB Manufacturing Production YoY Dec 1.7% 1.2% 16:30 GB Construction Output SA MoM Dec 1.0% -0.2% 16:30 GB Construction Output SA YoY Dec -0.5% 1.5% 20:30 CA Unemployment Rate Jan % 20:30 CA Net Change in Employment Jan k 20:30 CA Full Time Employment Change Jan k 20:30 CA Part Time Employment Change Jan k 20:30 CA Participation Rate Jan % 20:30 US Import Price Index MoM Jan 0.2% 0.4% 20:30 US Export Price Index MoM Jan 0.1% 0.3% 22:00 GB NIESR GDP Estimate Jan % 22:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Prelim Feb :00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Prelim Feb :00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Prelim Feb SAT/11-Feb-17 01:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 10-Feb :00 US Federal Budget. $ Jan b 19:30 US Fed's Fischer to Address Economics Conference in U.K. (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory,

4 Page 4 of 6 SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) Last Trading Date: 09 Mar Koreksi breakout area support di 18800, hit low di Waspadai RSI dekat zona oversold Short-term resistance di sekitar DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 06 Feb SSIpmH Feb SSIamH Feb SSIpmH Feb SSIamH Feb SSIpmH Feb SSIamH Feb SSIpmH Feb SSIamH Jan SSIpmH Jan SSIamH WEEKLY FEBRUARY JANUARY 2017 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (06/Feb) (06/Feb) (01/Feb) (06/Feb) (09/Jan) (18/Jan) (09/Jan) (18/Jan) RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION Reaction high (1-H chart) Crucial resistance Pivot line (1-H chart) Reaction high (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-D chart) Pivot line (1-D chart) Low 08/Dec/2016 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS TARGET 18725

5 Page 5 of 6 KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) Exp. Date: 09 Mar Rebound dekati area 272, hit high di Waspadai RSI dekat zona overbought Trendline support di sekitar DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 06 Feb Feb Feb Feb Jan ~30 Jan H O L I D A Y WEEKLY FEBRUARY JANUARY 2017 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (06/Feb) (06/Feb) (06/Feb) (03/Feb) (26/Jan) (02/Jan) (06/Feb) (02/Jan) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION High 24/Apr/2015 (Peak) High 27/Apr/ High 28/Apr/ High 06/Feb/ Low 03/Feb/ Reaction low (1-H chart) Low 23/Jan/ Low 11/Jan/2017 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS TARGET

6 Page 6 of 6 HSIG7 (Hang Seng Feb Futures) Exp. Date: 27 February 2017 Area krusial di diuji lagi Rebound hadapi trendline resistance di sekitar Sedangkan trendline support di sekitar DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 06 Feb Feb Feb Feb ~31 Jan H O L I D A Y 27 Jan (HSIG7) Jan (HSIG7) WEEKLY FEBRUARY JANUARY 2017 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW (06/Feb) (06/Feb) (02/Feb) (03/Feb) (26/Jan) (03/Jan) (02/Feb) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION High 11/Oct/ High 25/Oct/2016 (Peak) Trendline resistance Reaction high (1-D chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Low 03/Feb/ Low 23/Jan/2017 (Bottom) Low 16/Jan/2017 (Bottom) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS TARGET