MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

Transkripsi

1 z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK AS & Global Markets: Saham pengembang perumahan telah mengangkat bursa saham AS dan juga Eropa pada hari Selasa, sementara minyak mendapat dukungan positif dari sinyal Iran mengenai pembekuan produksinya. Di Wall Street, saham teknologi angkat Nasdaq ke rekor intraday high dan meningkatnya pasar perumahan memperkuat indikasi membaiknya ekonomi. Saham perumahan melonjak 2% setelah Departemen Perdagangan melaporkan penjualan rumah baru AS melonjak diluar dugaan di bulan Juli mendekati level tertinggi 9 tahun. Meskipun rencana Iran berhasil mengangkat harga minyak, namun kenaikannya dibatasi oleh rilis data stok minyak AS yang naik diluar dugaan. Data new home sales AS membantu mengurangi kerugian dolar hingga akhirnya bergerak datar terhadap sejulamh rival utamanya. Weekahead: Pekan ini investor mengharapkan adanya penegasan dari Kepala Fed Janet Yellen mengenai kesiapannya dalam menaikkan suku bunga yang akan dijabarkan dalam sidang tahunan bank-bank sentral dunia pada 25 Agustus di Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Data Ifo Jerman (Kamis) akan dicermati yang diharapkan akan menunjukkan seberapa besar dampak dari Brexit terhadap kesehatan ekonomi Eropa, terkait rencana pelonggaran moneter ECB kedepannya. Dampak dari Brexit juga akan dicermati investor melalui rilis data PDB-Q2 Inggris (Jumat) yang diprediksi tumbuh 0,6%. Terakhir, data inflasi Jepang (Jumat) akan dinantikan untuk melihat perkembangan upaya pencapaian target inflasi BOJ sebesar 2%, dengan data CPI Juli diprediksi catat penurunan 0,4% y/y. Rabu 24 Agustus 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 05:45 NZ Trade Balance YY* Jul N/A B :30 AU Construction Work Done Q2-1.9 % :00 DE GDP Detailed QQ Q2 0.4 % GB BBA Mortgage Approvals Jul 38.5 K :30 US Build Permits R Numb MM* Jul N/A M :00 US Monthly Home Price MM* Jun N/A % :00 US Existing Home Sales Jul 5.51 M :30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e M Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta Indonesia, Phone :

2 Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 06/06/ /08/2016 (GMT) Price 1,145 1,14 1,135 1,13 1,125 Value 50 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 24/08/2016; 1,1303; 1,1306; 1,1299; 1,1302 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 24/08/2016; 1,1216 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 24/08/2016; 1,1155 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 24/08/2016; 65, ,12 1,115 1,11 1,105 1,1 1,095 1,09 1,085 1,08 Coba dekati puncak trend channel harian Penguatan terlihat dalam hourly RSI flat Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 24/08/2016; 0, Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug (23/Aug) (22/Aug) (18/Aug) (05/Aug) (29/Jul) (25/Jul) (03/May) (05/Jan) Reaction high on 1-H chart High 04/May/ High 24/Jun/2016 (Peak) Reaction high on 1-H chart Low Aug Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Low 10/Aug/2016 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

3 Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Koreksi masih tertahan di area 100 Daily trend masih cenderung bearish Strong support disekitar Trendline resistance di sekitar Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (02/Aug) (16/Aug) (21/Jul) (08/Jul) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) High 08/Aug/ High 12/Aug/ High 15/Aug/ High 22/Aug/ Low 16/Aug/ Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) Low 11/Nov/ Low 08/Nov/2013 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Rebound bergerak mendekati target uptick di Area support di masih cukup efektif Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug UNCH (23/Aug) (22/Aug) (03/Aug) (15/Aug) (15/Jul) (06/Jul) (24/Jun) (06/Jul) High 29/Jun/2016 (Reaction high) High 15/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) High 03/Aug/ High 04/Aug/ Reaction low (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Low 19/Aug/ Reaction low (1-H chart) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Daily trend masih bearish Area support di masih efektif Trendline resistance di sekitar Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (09/Aug) (18/Aug) (27/Jul) (29/Jul) (29/Jan) (03/May) High 28/Jul/ High 09/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) High 11/Aug/ Reaction high (1-H chart) Reaction low (1-H chart) Low 23/Jun/2016 (Bottom) Low 03/May/2016 (Bottom) Low 26/Aug/2015 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

6 Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 24/08/2016; 0,7620 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 24/08/2016; 0,7581 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 24/08/2016; 0,7611; 0,7617; 0,7607; 0, /06/ /08/2016 (GMT) Price 0,77 0,765 0, ,755 0,75 0,745 0,74 0,735 0,73 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Rangkaian naik mulai terlihat dalam hourly RSI menguat ,725 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 24/08/2016; 43,456 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 24/08/2016; -0,0017 Value Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 Aug Aug FLAT Aug Aug Aug (23/Aug) (22/Aug) (10/Aug) (02/Aug) (15/Jul) (06/Jul) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) High 21/Apr/2016 (Peak) High 26/Apr/2016 (Reaction high) High Aug High Aug Low 03/Aug/ Low 02/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

7 Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 23/06/ /08/2016 (GMT) Price 0,73 0,725 0,72 Cndl; NZD=; Bid 24/08/2016; 0,7286; 0,7292; 0,7283; 0,7291 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 24/08/2016; 0,7216 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 24/08/2016; 0, RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 24/08/2016; 66,909 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 24/08/2016; 0,0120 Value Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus ,715 0,71 0,705 0,7 0,695 0,69 Penguatan didukung dalam pergerakan hourly Telah break area trend channel harian Aug Aug FLAT Aug Aug Aug (23/Aug) (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (08/Aug) (12/Jul) (21/Jul) (23/Aug) (20/Jan) Reaction high on 1-H chart High 19/May/ High 22/May/2015 (Reaction high) High 23/Aug/ Low Aug Low Aug Low 15/Aug/ Low 08/Aug/2016 (Bottom) BUY SELL STOP LOSS

8 Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Area trendline support di sekitar Short-term support di sekitar Target uptick di Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (02/Aug) (05/Aug) (21/Jul) (11/Jul) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) High 29/Jul/ Reaction high (1-H chart) High 02/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) High 22/Aug/ Low 05/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) Low 06/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) Low 14/Dec/2012 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

9 Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Formasi consecutive higher lows gagal berlanjut Daily trend cenderung bearish Resistance penting di sekitar 1.30 WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (05/Aug) (18/Aug) (27/Jul) (04/Jul) (20/Jan) (03/May) High 08/Aug/ High 10/Aug/ High 11/Aug/ High 12/Aug/ Reaction low (1-H chart) Low 24/Jun/ Low 23/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) Low 08/Jun/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

10 Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= /06/ /08/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs Cndl; XAU=; Bid 23/08/2016; 1.338,5900; 1.344,7000; 1.334,9000; 1.337,3500 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 23/08/2016; 1.340,7262 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 23/08/2016; RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 23/08/2016; 43,610 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 23/08/2016; -20,1500 Value Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus Koreksi dalam harian Peningkatan terjadi dalam hourly-tidak dominan AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Aug FLAT Aug Aug Aug Aug (23/Aug) (22/Aug) (02/Aug) (08/Aug) (06/Jul) (21/Jul) (06/Jul) (04/Jan) High 10/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) High Aug Reaction high on 1-H chart High Aug Low Aug Low 08/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

11 Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 08/06/ /08/2016 (GMT) Cndl; XAG=; Bid 23/08/2016; 18,8900; 19,1200; 18,7800; 18,7800 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 23/08/2016; 19,6020 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 23/08/2016; 19, RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 23/08/2016; 21,481 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 23/08/2016; -1,5800 Value Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 Price Ozs 20, , , , ,5 16 Pergerakan terjadi koreksi harian Hourly yang awalnya naik mulai tertekan Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug (23/Aug) (23/Aug) (02/Aug) (23/Aug) (04/Jul) (01/Jul) (04/Jul) (12/Jan) High Aug High Aug Reaction high on 1-H chart High Aug Low Aug Low 01/Jul/ Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

12 Page 12 of 12 CLV6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Sept Reuters) Daily CLV6 14/06/ /08/2016 (NYC) Price Bbl Cndl; CLV6; Trade Price 23/08/2016; 47,39; 48,32; 46,59; 47,57 WMA; CLV6; Trade Price(Last); 55 23/08/2016; 45,77 EMA; CLV6; Trade Price(Last); 20 23/08/2016; 45, RSI; CLV6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 23/08/2016; 61,811 Value Bbl Mom; CLV6; Trade Price(Last); 14 23/08/2016; 5,99 Value Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus Break area trend channel dalam harian Telah tembus level terendah mingguannya Aug 23 (CLV6) Aug 22 (CLV6) Aug 19 (CLV6) Aug 18 (CLV6) Aug 18 (CLU6) (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (19/Aug) (03/Aug) (04/Jul) (29/Jul) (09/Jun) (11/Feb) Reaction high on 1-H chart High 05/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) High 07/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) Reaction high on 1-H chart Low Aug Low Aug Low Aug Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS