MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

Transkripsi

1 z Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Bursa saham global turun pada hari Kamis, sementara dolar menguat, menekan harga minyak dan komoditas, setelah investor melihat kemungkinan The Fed menaikkan suku bunganya dalam waktu dekat ini. Pernyataan Presiden Fed New York William Dudley semalam yang mengatakan ekonomi dapat cukup kuat untuk menjamin kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juni atau Juli kian memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Fed pasca rilis FOMC minutes di hari Rabu sebelumnya. Laporan CME FedWatch menunjukkan peluang sebesar 32% bagi Fed menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juni, naik dari 15% ekspektasinya di hari Selasa sebelumnya. Sementara mayoritas pelaku pasar saat ini memprediksi kenaikan di bulan Juli. Bursa global merosot 0,9%, catat penurunan dalam 3 sesi berturut-turut. Harga emas turun 0,4% dan sentuh level terendah 3 pekan. Jumat 20 Mei 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV DE Producer Prices MM Apr 0.2 % EZ Current Account NSA Eur Mar N/A B EZ Current Account SA Eur Mar N/A B GB CBI Trends Orders May -13 IND CA CPI Inflation MM Apr 0.3 % CA CPI MM SA Apr N/A % CA Retail Sales MM Mar -0.6 % US Existing Home Sales Apr 5.40 M US Exist. Home Sales % Chg. Apr 1.3 % 5.1 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta Indonesia (021) Fax (021)

2 Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= Cndl; EUR=; Bid 20/05/2016; 1,1202; 1,1208; 1,1192; 1,1199 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 20/05/2016; 1,1308 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 20/05/2016; 1, /02/ /05/2016 (GMT) Price 1,15 1,14 1,13 Value RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 20/05/2016; 25, ,12 1,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 Pergerakan dapat lanjut tekanan Dekati trendline dibawahnya RSI flat Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 20/05/2016; -0, Feb 16 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May May May FLAT May FLAT May (17/May) (19/May) (03/May) (19/May) (12/Apr) (25/Apr) (03/May) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May High May High May Reaction high on 1-H chart Low Mar Reaction low on daily chart Low Jan Low Jan 05 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

3 Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP) Reli masih berupaya uji resistance di Pola symmetrical triangle dengan trendline support di sekitar May May May May May (19/May) (16/May) (18/May) (03/May) (01/Apr) (29/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 29/Mar/2016 (Peak) High 01/Apr/ Horizontal resistance Pivot line (1-H chart) Trendline support Horizontal support Pivot line (1-H chart) Low 09/May/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Area trendline resistance dapat dipecahkan Target uptick di (SMA200) Waspadai RSI dekat zona overbought May May May May May (19/May) (16/May) (03/May) (16/May) (29/Apr) (06/Apr) (04/Jan) (29/Feb) ANALYSIS & High 12/Dec/ High 04/Jan/2016 (Reaction high) High 03/May/2016 (Peak) High 19/May/ Low 19/May/ Low 18/May/ Low 16/May/2016 (Bottom) Low 21/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Reli berlanjut dekati level paritas 1.0 Waspadai RSI sudah overbought (78) Trendline support di May May May May May (19/May) (16/May) (19/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (12/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 03/Feb/ High 10/Mar/2016 (Peak) The level of psychology High 19/May/ Trendline support Low 13/May/ Low 06/May/ Low 05/May/2016 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

6 Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 06/01/ /05/2016 (GMT) EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 20/05/2016; 0,7391 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 20/05/2016; 0,7506 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 20/05/2016; 0,7226; 0,7229; 0,7217; 0, Price 0,78 0,77 0, , RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 20/05/2016; 27,206 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 20/05/2016; -0,0443 Value Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei ,74 0,73 0,72 0,71 0,7 0,69 0,68 Rangkaian turun level highlow Pergerakan dekati area trend channel dibawahnya RSI flat May May May May May (17/May) (19/May) (03/May) (19/May) (20/Apr) (07/Apr) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May Reaction high on daily chart High May Reaction high on 1-H chart Low May Reaction low on daily chart Reaction low on daily chart Reaction low on daily chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

7 Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 30/12/ /05/2016 (GMT) Cndl; NZD=; Bid 20/05/2016; 0,6742; 0,6743; 0,6736; 0,6738 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 20/05/2016; 0,6812 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 20/05/2016; 0, Price 0,7 0,69 0, RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 20/05/2016; 35,690 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 20/05/2016; -0,0280 Value Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei ,67 0,66 0,65 0,64 0,63 0,62 Pelemahan dekati area pivot line dibawahnya Rangkaian turun level high RSI flat May FLAT May May May May (17/May) (19/May) (03/May) (19/May) (19/Apr) (05/Apr) (19/Apr) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May High May High May High May Low May Reaction low on daily chart Reaction low on daily chart Low Feb 03 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

8 Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP) Area trendline support di 123 sedang diuji Daily trend cenderung bearish May May May May May (17/May) (16/May) (12/May) (06/May) (01/Apr) (18/Apr) (29/Jan) (06/May) ANALYSIS & Pivot line Pivot line High 17/May/2016 (Reaction high) High 18/May/ Low 16/May/2016 (Reaction low) Low 09/May/ Low 06/May/2016 (Bottom) Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

9 Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Reli berlanjut mendekati area resistance di Target uptick di WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE (19/May) (17/May) (19/May) (03/May) (05/Apr) (29/Apr) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & High 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) High 16/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) High 24/Mar/2016 (Peak) High 05/Apr/2016 (Peak) Low 19/May/ Low 18/May/ Low 17/May/2016 (Reaction low) Low 12/May/2016 (Reaction low) BUY SELL --- STOP LOSS

10 Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= /02/ /05/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs Cndl; XAU=; Bid 19/05/2016; 1.257,6000; 1.260,9200; 1.244,0000; 1.254,1000 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 19/05/2016; 1.264,6061 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 19/05/2016; 1.255,5878 RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 19/05/2016; 39,851 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 19/05/2016; -39,2600 Value Ozs Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei Ikuti area trend channel turun harian Rangkaian turun level highlow harian RSI merosot AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) May May May May May (16/May) (19/May) (02/May) (19/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May High May Reaction high on 1-H chart High May Low May Reaction low on 1-H chart Low Apr Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

11 Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= Cndl; XAG=; Bid 19/05/2016; 16,8500; 16,9170; 16,2900; 16,4800 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 19/05/2016; 16,9591 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 19/05/2016; 16, /02/ /05/2016 (GMT) RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 19/05/2016; 31,709 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 19/05/2016; -1,3400 Value Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Price Ozs 17, , , ,5 14 Pelemahan dekati area trendline dibawahnya Rangkaian turun level high RSI melemah Helpdesk closing price (16.470) previous (16.879) May May May May May (16/May) (19/May) (02/May) (19/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & High May High May High May High May Low May Low Apr Low Apr Low Apr 12 BUY SELL STOP LOSS

12 Page 12 of 12 CLN6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 21 Jun Reuters) Daily CLN6 19/01/ /05/2016 (NYC) Cndl; CLN6; Trade Price 19/05/2016; 48,45; 48,78; 47,26; 48,77 WMA; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 55 19/05/2016; 44,50 EMA; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 20 19/05/2016; 46, Price Bbl RSI; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 19/05/2016; 70,149 Value Bbl Mom; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 14 19/05/2016; 2,08 Value Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei Bbl Koreksi dalam harian Jauhi puncak trend channel harian RSI flat Last chart price May 19 (CLN6) May 18 (CLN6) May 18 (CLM6) May May (18/May) (16/May) (18/May) (10/May) (29/Apr) (05/Apr) (18/May) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & High Oct 12, Reaction high on daily chart High Nov 05, High May Low May Low May Low May Low May 11 BUY SELL STOP LOSS