MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

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1 z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Pasar saham global menguat dan sterling melemah pada hari Kamis setelah BoE pangkas suku bunga dan menghidupkan kembali program pembelian obligasi untuk meredam pukulan ekonomi dari keputusan Inggris 23 Juni untuk meninggalkan Uni Eropa. BoE pangkas suku bunga ke rekor terendah menjadi 0,25%. Bursa AS dan dolar bergerak tipis karena investor berhati-hati jelang rilis data pekerjaan AS nanti malam yang diharapkan akan memberikan kejelasan mengenai waktu pelaksanaan kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed. Data semalam menunjukkan jobless claims naik dan factory orders turun untuk 2 bulan berturutan di periode Juni. Namun demikian, pasar tenaga kerja masih cukup sehat dan berpotensi terus dukung pertumbuhan ekonomi AS. Jumat 05 Agustus 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 07:00 JP Overtime Pay Jun N/A % :00 DE Industrial Orders MM Jun 0.6 % :30 GB Halifax House Prices MM Jul -0.2 % :30 HK FX Reserves* Jul N/A B :30 CA Employment Change Jul 10.0 K :30 CA Unemployment Rate Jul 6.9 % :30 CA Trade Balance C$ Jun B :30 US Non-Farm Payrolls Jul 180 K :30 US Private Payrolls Jul 170 K :30 US Unemployment Rate Jul 4.8 % :30 US International Trade MM $ Jun B :00 CA Ivey PMI* Jul N/A IND :00 US Dallas Fed PCE* Jun N/A % US Consumer Credit Jun B Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta Indonesia, Phone :

2 Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= /04/ /08/2016 (GMT) Price 1,16 1, ,13 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 05/08/2016; 1,1127; 1,1133; 1,1117; 1,1125 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 05/08/2016; 1,1105 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 1, ,12 1,11 1,1 1,09 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian, tekanan masih lanjut RSI harian turun Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 53,518 Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 05/08/2016; 0, April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 Aug Aug Aug Aug July (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (29/Jul) (25/Jul) (03/May) (05/Jan) Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Low Jul Low Jul Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

3 Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Area lowerline dari pola symmetrical triangle masih efektif menahan tekanan Namun daily trend bearish Target downtick di Waspadai RSI masih berada di zona oversold (29) Aug UNCH Aug Aug Aug July (02/Aug) (02/Aug (02/Aug) (02/Aug (21/Jul) (08/Jul) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) Reaction high (1-H chart) Reaction high (1-H chart) High 02/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) Reaction high (1-H chart) Low 11/Jul/ Low 08/Jul/2016 (Bottom) Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) Low 08/Nov/2013 BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

4 Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Koreksi breakout area trendline support Pola ascending triangle gagal berlanjut Area support di Aug Aug Aug Aug July (03/Aug) (04/Aug) (03/Aug) (04/Aug) (15/Jul) (06/Jul) (24/Jun) (06/Jul) High 29/Jun/2016 (Reaction high) High 15/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) High 03/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) SMA200 (1-H chart) Pivot line (1-D chart) Low 12/Jul/ Low 12/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) Low 06/Jul/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

5 Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Area trendline support masih efektif mendukung rebound Target uptick di Trendline support di sekitar Aug Aug Aug Aug UNCH July (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (27/Jul) (29/Jul) (29/Jan) (03/May) High 10/Mar/2016 (Peak) High 30/May/2016 (Peak) High 28/Jul/ Reaction high (1-H chart) Low 02/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) Low 24/Jun/ Low 23/Jun/2016 (Bottom) Low 03/May/2016 (Bottom) BUY SELL ---- STOP LOSS

6 Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= /04/ /08/2016 (GMT) Price ,78 0,77 0,76 EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 05/08/2016; 0,7546 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 0,7505 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 05/08/2016; 0,7627; 0,7631; 0,7619; 0, ,7 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 63,612 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 05/08/2016; 0,0036 Value April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus ,75 0,74 0,73 0,72 0,71 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian, lanjutkan rangkaian naik level low harian RSI naik Aug Aug Aug Aug July (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (15/Jul) (06/Jul) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart High Jul Low Aug Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on daily chart Low 06/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) BUY SELL STOP LOSS

7 Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 18/04/ /08/2016 (GMT) Cndl; NZD=; Bid 05/08/2016; 0,7171; 0,7176; 0,7166; 0,7170 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 05/08/2016; 0,7130 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 0, RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 55,917 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 05/08/2016; 0,0057 Value April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 Price 0,73 0,725 0,72 0,715 0,71 0,705 0,7 0,695 0,69 0,685 0,68 0,675 0,67 0,665 Pergerakan alami koreksi dalam harian, ikuti gerak dari bearish trend channel RSI flat Aug Aug Aug Aug July (02/Aug) (03/Aug) (02/Aug) (03/Aug) (12/Jul) (21/Jul) (08/Jul) (20/Jan) Reaction high on daily chart High Jul High Jul High Aug Low Aug Reaction low on 1-H chart Low Jul Reaction low on daily chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

8 Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Koreksi berlanjut meskipun cukup tipis Daily trend cenderung bearish RSI datar dekat zona oversold (32) Aug Aug Aug Aug July (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (21/Jul) (11/Jul) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) High 29/Jul/ Reaction high (1-H chart) High 02/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) Reaction high (1-H chart) Low 06/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) Low 14/Dec/ Low 13/Dec/2012 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

9 Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Minor trendline support sedang diuji Major trendline support di sekitar Target uptick di sekitar WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE (03/Aug) (04/Aug) (03/Aug) (04/Aug) (27/Jul) (04/Jul) (20/Jan) (03/May) High 24/Mar/2016 (Peak) High 27/Jul/2016 (Peak) High 29/Jul/ High 04/Aug/ Low 18/Jul/ Low 15/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) Low 04/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) Low 24/Jun/2016 BUY ---- SELL STOP LOSS

10 Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= Cndl; XAU=; Bid 05/08/2016; 1.360,0100; 1.361,2500; 1.360,0100; 1.360,7100 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 05/08/2016; 1.341,0114 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 1.325, /04/ /08/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 65,646 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 05/08/2016; 32,3200 Value Ozs April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus Koreksi dalam harian dengan masih dekati puncak trend channel harian RSI naik AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Aug Aug Aug Aug July (02/Aug) (01/Aug) (02/Aug) (01/Aug) (06/Jul) (21/Jul) (06/Jul) (04/Jan) Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Low Aug Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

11 Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= /05/ /08/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs Cndl; XAG=; Bid 05/08/2016; 20,3260; 20,3680; 20,3200; 20,3400 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 05/08/2016; 19,9511 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 19, RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 58,508 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 05/08/2016; 0,3180 Value Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus , , , , ,5 Terlihat koreksi dalam harian untuk dekati bearish trend channel RSI turun Helpdesk closing price (20.323) previous (20.388) Aug Aug Aug Aug July (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (04/Jul) (01/Jul) (04/Jul) (12/Jan) Reaction high 1-H chart (Jul 10, 2014) Reaction high 1-H chart (Jul 17, 2014) Reaction high 1-H chart Reaction high 1-H chart Low Aug Reaction low 1-H chart Reaction low 1-H chart Reaction low 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS

12 Page 12 of 12 CLU6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 22 Aug Reuters) Daily CLU6 11/05/ /08/2016 (NYC) Price Bbl Cndl; CLU6; Trade Price 05/08/2016; 41,84; 41,85; 41,75; 41,76 WMA; CLU6; Trade Price(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 45,68 EMA; CLU6; Trade Price(Last); 20 05/08/2016; RSI; CLU6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 43,374 Value Bbl Mom; CLU6; Trade Price(Last); 14 05/08/2016; -4,18 Value Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus Dapat break area bearish trend channel dalam harian Rangkaian naik level high harian RSI naik Aug Aug Aug Aug July (04/Aug) (03/Aug) (04/Aug) (03/Aug) (04/Jul) (29/Jul) (09/Jun) (11/Feb) Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart Reaction high on 1-H chart High Jul Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY SELL STOP LOSS