ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 5 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Bursa saham Asia dan aset resiko lainnya melemah di hari Selasa, tertekan oleh turunnya harga minyak dan pandangan beragam dari para petinggi Fed mengenai prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang turun 1,7%. Indeks Nikkei merosot 2,4% ke level penutupan terendah 8 pekan. Namun bursa Cina melawan tren, setelah berhasil ditutup naik 1,3% hingga 1,4%, usai libur hari Senin sebelumnya. Data order manufaktur dan juga belanja bisnis AS yang buruk telah meredupkan harapan akan dilakukan kenaikan suku bunga AS secara gradual, seiring dengan pernyataan Yellen yang terkesan hatihati, kontras dengan komentar hawkish sejumlah koleganya seperti Presiden Fed Boston Eric Rosengren. Eropa: Bursa Eropa melemah ke level terendah hampir 6 minggu pada hari Selasa, dengan saham pertambangan, otomotif dan perbankan pimpin penurunan setelah order industri di Jerman diluar dugaan turun. Order industri di Jerman turun di bulan Februari karena menurunnya permintaan asing. Bursa Inggris juga berakhir melemah setelah terkoreksi ke level terendah 3 pekan, dengan saham terkait komoditas tertekan oleh turunnya harga minyak dan logam. AS & Global Markets: Dolar melorot ke posisi terendah terhadap yen sejak Oktober 2014 pada hari Selasa dan bursa global jatuh setelah data ekonomi dari Eropa dan AS mendorong investor untuk menarik diri dari aset beresiko. Gubernur BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda menegaskan kesiapannya untuk mengekspansi kebijakan moneter seperti mendorong suku bunga lebih lanjut kedalam teritorial negatif. Wall Street mengikuti pelemahan di bursa Asia dan Eropa, dengan indeks MSCI global turun 1,4%. Trade deficit AS melebar melampaui perkiraan di bulan Februari, indikasi terkini melambatnya ekonomi global lebih lanjut di Q1, meskipun data lainnya mengisyaratkan gambaran pertumbuhan ekonomi berpotensi meningkat dalam bulan-bulan mendatang. Harga minyak stabil setelah Kuwait mengatakan pembekuan produksi oleh produsen minyak utama akan berlanjut tanpa Iran. Emas berhasil menguat, sebagai aset dengan kinerja terbaik di Q1 2016. Kebijakan bank sentral akan dicermati menyusul minutes yang akan dirilis oleh sejumlah bank sentral dunia pekan ini, seperti dari The Fed dan ECB. Pernyataan dovish Yellen telah memberikan indikasi akan dilakukan kenaikan suku bunga secara gradual oleh The Fed tahun ini, dimana hal ini diperkuat oleh rilis data pekerjaan AS yang solid. ECB juga masih diprediksi akan melanjutkan kebijakan moneter longgar setelah data inflasi hanya sedikit membaik menjadi -0,1 persen di bulan Maret, dari -0,2 persen sebelumnya. Data cadangan devisa Cina (kemungkinan rilis hari Kamis) juga akan diperhatikan yang nampaknya akan menunjukkan penurunan menyusul bank sentral berupaya mendongkrak yuan dan melepas dolar untuk mengerem capital outflows. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 295.51 (03/May/11) 31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12 247.58 (30/Mar/16) 21794.84 17811.48 (01/Apr/16) 2075.07 (01/Apr/16) 3538.68940 2016 LOW 14865.77 (12/Feb/16) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015) 217.52 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015) 15370.33 1867.01 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96 (16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55) 132.93 (23/Nov./82) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 05 April 2016 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI 17603.32 133.68 / 0.75%.N225 15732.82 390.45/2.42% /.SPX 2045.17 20.96/ 1.01%.KS200 240.58 2.47/1.02% /.IXIC 4843.932 47.863/0.98%.HSI 20177.00 321.92/1.57% JPY= 110.31 1.00/ 0.90% /.SSEC 3053.38460 43.85480/1.46% KRW= 1159.81 8.65 / 0.75% /CLc1(Oil) 36.56 0.86 / 2.41% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Page 2 of 5 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV MON/04-Apr 08.00 AU MI Inflation Gauge Mar 0.0 N/A % -0.2 08.30 AU Building Approvals Feb 3.1 2.0 % -7.5-6.6 08.30 AU Private House Approvals Feb -1.2 N/A % -6-6.4 08.30 AU ANZ Newspaper Job Ads Mar -11.4 N/A % 6.9 08.30 AU ANZ Internet Job Ads Mar 0.4 N/A % -1.3 08.30 AU Retail Sales MM Feb 0.0 0.4 % 0.3 All Day CN Bank Holiday Tomb Sweeping Day 20.45 US ISM New York Index Mar 721.0 N/A IND 720.8 20.45 US ISM NY Biz Conditions Mar 50.4 N/A IND 53.6 21.00 US Employment Trends Mar 127.48 N/A IND 129.1 128.54 21.00 US Durables Goods. R MM Feb -3.0 N/A % -2.8 21.00 US Factory Orders MM Feb -1.7-1.7 % 1.6 1.2 TUE/05-Apr 04.00 KR FX Reserves Mar 369.84 N/A B 365.76 06.30 AU AIG Services Index Mar 49.5 N/A IND 51.8 07.00 JP Overtime Pay Feb 0.4 N/A % -1.3 08.30 AU Trade Balance G&S (A$) Feb -3410-2600 M -2937-3156 08.30 AU Imports Feb 0 N/A % -1.0 08.30 AU Exports Feb -1 N/A % 1.0 11.30 AU RBA Cash Rate Apr 2.0 2.0 % 2.0 11.30 AU RBA Statement 19.30 US International Trade MM Feb -47.06-46.2 B -45.7-45.88 20.45 US Markit Svcs PMI Final Mar 51.3 51.0 IND 51.0 20.45 US Markit Comp Final PMI Mar 51.3 N/A IND 51.1 21.00 US ISM N-Mfg PMI Mar 54.5 54.0 IND 53.4 21.00 US ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx Mar 50.3 N/A IND 49.7 21.00 US ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx Mar 56.7 N/A IND 55.5 21.00 US ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Idx Mar 49.1 N/A IND 45.5 21.00 US JOLTS Job Openings Feb 5.445 5.500 M 5.541 5.604 WED/06-Apr 08.45 CN Caixin Services PMI Mar 51.4 IND 51.2 06~07 Apr N/A CN FX Reserves (Monthly) Mar N/A T 3.20 09.30 HK Nikkei PMI Mar N/A IND 46.4 12.00 JP Coincident Indicator MM Feb N/A IND 2.9 12.00 JP Leading Indicator Feb N/A IND -0.4 21.30 US EIA Crude Inventories w/e 3.333 M 2.299 23.20 US FOMC Mester Speaks 01.00 US FOMC Minutes 07~08 Apr 06.30 AU AIG Construction Index Mar N/A IND 46.1 THU/07-Apr 06.50 JP Foreign Reserves Mar N/A B 1254.1 15.30 HK FX Reserves Mar N/A B 359.90 19.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 270 K 276 19.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E N/A K 263.25 19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims W/E 2.173 M 2.173 02.00 US Consumer Credit Feb 14.74 B 10.54 FRI/08-Apr 04.30 US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks 06.50 JP Current Account NSA JPY Feb 2006.0 B 520.8 12.00 JP Consumer Confid Index Mar 40.5 IND 40.1 13.00 JP Economy Watchers Poll Mar 46.5 IND 44.6 21.00 US Wholesale Inventories MM Feb -0.1 % 0.2 21.00 US Wholesale Sales MM Feb 0.0 % -1.7 (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@erwinriset)
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 5 SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) Last Trading Date: 13 Jun. 2016 Daily trend bearish namun waspadai RSI sudah oversold Level psikologi di 16000 pecah, potensi uji support berikutnya di 15525 DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 05 Apr SSIpmM6 15645 15690 15540 150 15595 --- 120 0.76 30243 05 Apr SSIamM6 16045 16070 15685 385 15715 15715 345 2.15 75855 04 Apr SSIpmM6 16060 16180 16035 145 16050 --- 10 0.06 17324 04 Apr SSIamM6 16220 16235 16025 210 16060 16060 180 1.11 60799 01 Apr SSIpmM6 16240 16315 16085 230 16205 --- 35 0.22 36089 01 Apr SSIamM6 16785 16790 16095 695 16240 16240 535 3.19 106315 31 Mar SSIpmM6 16775 16815 16715 100 16795 --- 20 0.12 20685 31 Mar SSIamM6 17010 17035 16720 315 16775 16775 150 0.89 67779 30 Mar SSIpmM6 16970 17060 16935 125 17025 --- 100 0.59 19586 30 Mar SSIamM6 17060 17075 16850 225 16925 16925 135 0.79 48313 16235 15540 16790 16025 17165 15850 18945 14770 (04/Apr) (05/Apr) (01/Apr) (04/Apr) (14/Mar) (01/Mar) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) 16425 Pivot line 16315 Reaction high on 1-H chart 16180 High 05/Apr/2016 15730 Pivot line 15525 Low 25/Feb/2016 (Bottom) 14860 Low 15/Feb/2016 14770 Low 12/Feb/2016 (Bottom) 14525 Low 20/Oct/2014 SELL 15680 STOP LOSS 15780 15515 15400 DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Page 4 of 5 KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) Exp. Date: 09 Jun. 2016 Pola consecutive lower highs Area support di 241 sedang diuji Key support di 237.50 DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 05 Apr 242.70 242.90 241.00 1.90 241.30 241.30 2.20 0.90 109114 04 Apr 243.15 243.80 242.70 1.10 243.50 243.50 0.95 0.39 73342 01 Apr 246.35 246.55 242.55 4.00 242.55 242.55 3.85 1.56 147525 31 Mar 248.25 248.25 245.90 2.35 246.40 246.40 1.40 0.56 111098 30 Mar 247.65 248.45 247.40 1.05 247.80 247.80 1.10 0.45 87042 243.80 241.00 246.55 241.00 248.45 237.80 248.45 223.10 (04/Apr) (05/Apr) (01/Apr) (05/Apr) (30/Mar) (09/Mar) (30/Mar) (20/Jan) 248.25 High 31/Mar/2016 246.55 High 01/Apr/2016 244.00 Pivot line 243.00 Pivot line 241.00 Pivot line 239.75 Low 10/Mar/2016 237.80 Low 09/Mar/2016 243.90 Low 29/Feb/2016 SELL 242.00 STOP LOSS 243.15 240.30 239.50
Page 5 of 5 HSIJ6 (Hang Seng April Futures) Exp. Date: 28 Apr. 2016 Area 20200 pecah, potensial uji level support di 19725 Key support di 19500 19400 DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 05 Apr 20389 20389 20092 297 20130 20130 337 1.65 124172 04 Apr H O L I D A Y 01 Apr 20805 20835 20453 382 20467 20467 340 1.63 119622 31 Mar 20881 20891 20703 188 20807 20807 124 0.60 116335 30 Mar 20485 20718 20478 240 20683 20683 334 1.64 17296 20389 20092 20835 20092 20891 18993 21857 18217 (05/Apr) (05/Apr) (01/Apr) (05/Apr) (31/Mar) (01/Mar) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) 21020 High 31/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) 20874 High 01/Apr/2016 20700 Pivot line 20255 Pivot line on 1-H chart 19813 Low 09/Mar/2016 19725 Pivot line 19400 Pivot line SELL 20215 STOP LOSS 20300 20075 19950