ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 5 Twitter: @researchvaf MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Indeks saham Asia tembus level tertinggi 5-1/2 bulan pada hari Kamis setelah harga minyak melejit lebih dari 4% di sesi overnight menyusul stok minyak AS naik lebih tipis dari perkiraan dan adanya harapan bahwa produsen minyak pada akhirnya akan menyetujui upaya untuk mengurangi kelebihan pasokan. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,8%, menembus level tertinggi sejak awal November. Indeks Nikkei Jepang bertambah 2,6%. Saham Australia mendaki 0,9% dan Hang Seng, Hong Kong,menguat 1,8% sementara indeks Shanghai kehilangan 0,7%. Eropa: Bursa Eropa turun tipis pada hari Kamis setelah ECB tahan suku bunganya, dengan produsen peralatan telekomunikasi Swedia Ericsson dan produsen minuman Prancis Pernod pimpin penurunan setelah memberikan update yang mengecewakan. Presiden ECB Mario Draghi menahan suku bunga pada rekor terendah, melanjutkan kebijakan moneter ultra-longgar, dan mengatakan bank akan memulai pembelian obligasi korporasi dan putaran baru pembiayaan bank yang murah pada bulan Juni. Bursa Inggris juga jatuh pasca mencapai level penutupan tertinggi sehari sebelumnya, dipicu rontoknya saham pertambangan Anglo American dan Sky. Saham Sky turun 4,2% setelah muncul keraguan atas hak siar untuk pertandingan Bundesliga di Jerman. Sedangkan Anglo American jatuh 5,6% setelah melaporkan produksi kuartal pertama yang menurun. AS & Global Markets: Harga minyak tergelincir pada Kamis kemarin setelah terindikasi akan adanya peningkatan produksi, sementara bursa AS terkoreksi untuk pertama kalinya dalam 4 sesi terakhirsetelah muncul laporan earnings yang beragam. Euro melemah terhadap dolar setelah terlihat adanya potensi ECB akan menambah stimulus jika diperlukan. Yield Treasury AS naik ke level tertinggi lebih dari 3 pekan menyusul kenaikan harga minyak belakangan ini telah mengurangi minat investor pada aset aman resiko (seperti obligasi AS). Adapun data ekonomi yang akan diperhatikan hari ini adalah data PMI flash Eropa (Jumat), dengan fokus investor akan tertuju pada sidang Fed 27 April mendatang. The Fed diprediksi akan menaikkan suku bunga 2 kali tahun ini, kemungkinan besar mulai terjadi di bulan Juni dengan peluang terjadi sekitar 21% berdasarkan CME Group's FedWatch program. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 295.51 (03/May/11) 31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12 249.56 21794.84 18167.63 2111.05 3538.68940 2016 LOW 14865.77 (12/Feb/16) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015) 217.52 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015) 15370.33 1867.01 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96 (16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55) 132.93 (23/Nov./82) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 21 April 2016 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI 17982.52 113.75 / 0.63%.N225 17363.62 457.08/2.70% /.SPX 2091.48 10.92/ 0.52%.KS200 249.39 2.13/0.86% /.IXIC 4945.886 2.244 / 0.05%.HSI 21622.25 385.94/1.82% JPY= 109.45 0.38/ 0.35% /.SSEC 2952.60370 19.98000/0.67% KRW= 1140.09 7.70 / 0.68% /CLc1 (Oil) 43.43 0.80 / 1.88% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Page 2 of 5 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV MON/18-Apr 08.30 CN China House Prices YY Mar 4.9 N/A % 3.6 08.30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales Mar 2.2 N/A % -0.1 10.00 KR L-Money Supply Growth Feb 8.3 N/A % 8.6 19.30 US FOMC Dudley Speaks 21.00 US NAHB Housing Market Idx Apr 58 59 IND 58 TUE/19-Apr N/A KR BoK Base Rate Apr 1.50 1.50 % 1.50 08.30 AU RBA Minutes 15.30 HK Unemployment Rate Mar 3.4 N/A % 3.3 19.30 US Building Permits: Number Mar 1.086 1.200 M 1.177 19.30 US Build Permits: Chg. MM Mar -7.7 N/A % -2.2 19.30 US Housing Starts Number MM Mar 1.089 1.170 M 1.178 1.194 19.30 US House Starts MM: Chg. Mar -8.8 N/A % 5.2 6.9 20.30 AU RBA Stevens Speaks WED/20-Apr 04.00 KR PPI Growth YY Mar -3.3 N/A % -3.4 04.00 KR PPI Growth Mar -0.1 N/A % 0.0 06.30 JP Reuters Tankan DI Apr 10 N/A IND 6 06.50 JP Exports YY Mar -6.8-6.9 % -4.0 06.50 JP Imports YY Mar -14.9-16.2 % -14.2 06.50 JP Trade Balance Total Yen Mar 755.0 834.6 B 242.8 21.00 US Existing Home Sales Mar 5.33 5.30 M 5.08 5.07 21.00 US Exist. Home Sales % Chg. Mar 5.1 3.5 % -7.1-7.3 21.30 US EIA Crude Inventories w/e 2.08 2.400 M 6.634 THU/21-Apr 15.30 HK Consumer Price Index Mar 3.0 N/A % 3.1 19.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 247 263 K 253 19.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E 260.50 N/A K 265.00 19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims W/E 2.137 2.171 M 2.171 2.176 19.30 US National Activity Index Mar -0.44 N/A IND -0.29-0.38 19.30 US Philly Fed Business Idx Apr -1.6 8.9 IND 12.4 19.30 US Philly Fed Capex Index Apr 12.7 N/A IND 13.30 19.30 US Philly Fed Employment Apr -18.5 N/A IND -1.10 19.30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid Apr 13.2 N/A IND -0.90 20.00 US Monthly Home Price MM Feb 0.4 0.4 % 0.5 0.4 20.00 US Monthly Home Price YY Feb 5.6 N/A % 6.0 20.00 US Monthly Home Price Index Feb 231.4 N/A IND 230.7 230.5 21.00 US Leading Index Chg MM Mar 0.2 0.4 % 0.1-0.1 FRI/22-Apr 09.00 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Flash Apr 49.6 IND 49.1 20.45 US Markit Mfg PMI Flash Apr 52.0 IND 51.5 (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@erwinriset)
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 5 Twitter: @researchvaf SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) Last Trading Date: 13 Jun. 2016 Daily trend bullish namun RSI sudah overbought (71) Area pivot line di 17165 berpotensi diuji lagi Area puncak di 17900 saat ini menjadi target berikutnya DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 21 Apr SSIpmM6 17365 17415 17205 210 17225 --- 155 0.89 30716 21 Apr SSIamM6 17235 17410 17180 230 17380 17380 500 2.96 68479 20 Apr SSIpmM6 16930 17315 16875 440 17295 --- 415 2.46 26255 20 Apr SSIamM6 17025 17105 16850 255 16880 16880 UNCH UNCH 61020 19 Apr SSIpmM6 16845 17150 16845 305 17040 --- 160 0.95 35370 19 Apr SSIamM6 16735 16900 16725 175 16880 16880 570 3.49 65088 18 Apr SSIpmM6 16335 16685 16315 370 16675 --- 365 2.24 27168 18 Apr SSIamM6 16350 16435 16240 195 16310 16310 425 2.54 77798 15 Apr SSIpmM6 16735 16745 16595 150 16620 --- 115 0.69 18801 15 Apr SSIamM6 16740 16935 16705 230 16735 16735 110 0.65 58708 17415 16240 17415 15320 17165 15850 18945 14770 (21/Apr) (18/Apr) (21/Apr) (07/Apr) (14/Mar) (01/Mar) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) 18215 High 07/Jan/2016 17900 High 01/Feb/2016 (Peak) 17850 High 03/Feb/2016 17415 Reaction high on 1-H chart 17165 Pivot line 17055 Reaction low on 1-H chart 16850 Reaction low on 1-H chart 16785 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY 17195 STOP LOSS 17100 17420 17525 DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Page 4 of 5 KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) Exp. Date: 09 Jun. 2016 Daily trend masih cenderung bullish Key resistance di 250.90 dengan target uptick di 254.30 DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 21 Apr 249.25 250.30 248.65 1.65 249.90 249.90 1.95 0.79 101775 20 Apr 249.25 250.30 247.70 2.60 247.95 247.95 0.95 0.38 103967 19 Apr 249.15 249.90 248.50 1.40 248.90 248.90 0.55 0.22 84126 18 Apr 247.20 248.60 246.75 1.85 248.35 248.35 1.10 0.44 94985 15 Apr 249.35 250.00 248.90 1.10 249.45 249.45 0.15 0.06 88127 250.30 246.75 250.30 240.00 248.45 237.80 250.30 223.10 (20/Apr) (18/Apr) (20/Apr) (08/Apr) (30/Mar) (09/Mar) (20/Apr) (20/Jan) 254.30 High 04/Nov/2015 (Peak) 252.90 High 05/Nov/2015 250.90 High 27/Nov/2015 (Peak) 249.60 Pivot line 248.50 Pivot line 246.75 Low 18/Apr/2016 244.00 Pivot line 242.20 Low 12/Apr/2016 BUY 249.40 STOP LOSS 248.25 251.15 252.00
Page 5 of 5 HSIJ6 (Hang Seng April Futures) Exp. Date: 28 Apr. 2016 Pola bullish trend channel Target uptick di 21800 Key support di 21000 DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 21 Apr 21446 21664 21351 313 21594 21594 323 1.52 130114 20 Apr 21498 21503 21122 381 21271 21271 162 0.76 123641 19 Apr 21447 21524 21276 248 21433 21433 266 1.26 112149 18 Apr 21088 21194 21021 173 21167 21167 175 0.82 98922 15 Apr 21427 21451 21258 193 21342 21342 1 0.01 95530 21664 21021 21664 19967 20891 18993 21857 18217 (21/Apr) (18/Apr) (21/Apr) (08/Apr) (31/Mar) (01/Mar) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) 22297 High 24/Dec/2015 (Peak) 22156 High 30/Dec/2015 (Reaction high) 21800 Pivot line 21664 High 21/Apr/2016 21240 Minor trendline support 21122 Low 20/Apr/2016 20985 Pivot line 20397 Low 12/Apr/2016 BUY 21350 STOP LOSS 21220 21700 21800