ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 6 Twitter: @researchvaf MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Bursa Asia terapresiasi untuk ke-8 kalinya secara berturut-turut pada hari Kamis, didukung oleh menguatnya Wall Street dan juga rebound pada harga minyak yang mendorong naiknya saham energi dan sumber daya. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik lebih dari 1%, memperluas reli yang membukukan kenaikan 2% dalam pembukaan tahun 2017 ini. India dan Hong Kong pimpin kenaikan indeks, sementara Nikkei Jepang turun 0,3% menyusul menguatnya yen atas dolar. Saham Filipina terkerek ke level tertinggi selama hampir 2 bulan dan saham Singapura naik 1,3%. Adapun Wall Street menguat di hari Rabu sebelumnya setelah rilis FOMC minutes dimana dewan kebijakan AS menaksir akan terjadi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih cepat berkat paket stimulus pemerintahan Donald Trump. Eropa: Saham Eropa bergerak dekat level tertingginya saat ini pada hari Kamis, sementara indeks saham Inggris tembus level tertinggi yang baru dipicu naiknya saham pengembang properti dan pertambangan. Indeks STOXX 600, yang pekan ini mendaki ke level tertinggi 1 tahun, tercatat naik 0,1%, sementara indeks FTSE 100 juga naik 0,1% pasca catat all-time high di 7211,96 poin. AS & Global Markets: Harga ekuitas global mengabaikan pelemahan Wall Street untuk ditutup menguat setelah tembus level tertinggi sejak medio 2015 pada hari Kamis, didorong oleh rilis data ekonomi Cina yang menambah optimisme terhadap pertumbuhan global dan inflasi. Dolar terkoreksi terhadap sejumlah rival utamanya setelah data inflasi dan pekerjaan gagal untuk membalik downtrend yang diikuti penguatan tajam yuan Cina. Yield Treasury AS turun menyusul investor memburu aset aman resiko jelang pelaksanaan pemerintahan Trump. Data kemarin menunjukkan pertumbuhan sektor jasa Cina terakselerasi ke level tertinggi 17 bulan pada Desember. Sementara data ADP National Employment semalam kurang memberikan dukungan positif setelah dirilis di bawah ekspektasi di bulan Desember meskipun kondisi pasar tenaga kerja AS masih solid. Harga minyak naik setelah Arab Saudi dilaporkan telah pangkas produksi minyaknya. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 295.51 (03/May/11) 31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16) 6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2016 HIGH 19592.90 (21/Dec/16) 264.42 (21/Dec/16) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16) 19987.63 (20/Dec/16) 2277.53 (13/Dec/16) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2017 HIGH 19615.40 (05/Jan/2017) 263.27 (04/Jan/217) 22483.01 (05/Jan/2017) 19956.14 (04/Jan/2017) 2272.82 (04/Jan/2017) 3168.50210 (05/Jan/2017) 2017 LOW 19277.93 (04/Jan/2017) 258.64 (02/Jan/2017) 21883.82 19775.93 2245.13 3105.30850 2016 LOW 14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96 (16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55) 132.93 (23/Nov./82) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 05 January 2017 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI 19899.29 42.87/ 0.21%.N225 19520.69 73.47/0.37% /.SPX 2269.00 1.75 / 0.08%.KS200 261.98 1.14/0.43% /.IXIC 5487.935 10.930/ 0.20%.HSI 22456.69 322.22/1.46% JPY= 115.40 1.84/ 1.57% /.SSEC 3165.54540 6.75140/0.21% KRW= 1181.79 13.36 / 1.12% /CLc1 (Oil) 53.76 0.50 / 0.94% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Page 2 of 6 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV. Mon/02-Jan-2017 07:00 KR Export Growth Prelim* Dec 6.4% 6.4% 2.5% 07:00 KR Import Growth Prelim* Dec 7.3% 6.8% 9.3% 07:00 KR Trade Balance Prelim Dec 7.0% N/A 8.20b 08:00 CN NBS Non-Mfg PMI* Dec 54.5 N/A 54.70 08:00 CN NBS Manufacturing PMI Dec 51.4 51.5 51.7 All Day US Bank Holiday/New Year s Day (Observed) All Day JP Bank Holiday/New Year s Day/Exchange Holiday Tue/03-Jan-2017 07:30 KR Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Dec 49.4 N/A 48.0 14:00 KR Bank of Korea Policy Meeting Minutes 15:30 HK Retail Sales YY Nov -5.5% -3.0% -2.9% 21:45 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Dec 54.3 54.2 54.2 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Dec 54.7 53.5 53.2 22:00 US ISM Mfg Prices Paid Dec 65.5 55.5 54.5 22:00 US ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Dec 60.2 N/A 53.0 22:00 US ISM Manuf Employment Idx Dec 53.1 52.5 52.3 22:00 US Construction Spending MM Nov 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% Wed/04-Jan-2017 04:00 KR Foreign Reserves Dec 371.10b N/A 371.99b 06:00 KR Current Account Balance Nov 7.14b N/A 6.01b 07:30 JP Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Dec 52.4 N/A 51.9 08:45 CN Caixin Mfg PMI Final Dec 51.9 50.9 50.9 21:45 US ISM-New York Index Dec 727.4 N/A 720.5 21:45 US ISM NY Biz Conditions Dec 63.8 N/A 52.5 Thu/05-Jan-2017 02:00 US U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from Dec. 13-14 FOMC Meeting 15:30 HK Nikkei PMI Dec 50.3 N/A 49.5 19:30 US Challenger Layoffs Dec 33.627k N/A 26.936k 20:15 US ADP National Employment Dec 153.0k 170k 216k 215.0k 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 235k 260k 265k 263k 20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e 256.75k 260k 263.00k 262.5k 20:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims w/e 2.112m N/A 2.102m 2.096m 21:45 US Markit Services PMI Final Dec 53.9 53.4 53.4 21:45 US Markit Composite Final PMI Dec 54.1 N/A 53.7 22:00 US ISM N-Mfg PMI Dec 57.2 56.6 57.2 23:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -7.051m -2.152m 0.614m 23:00 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e 10.051m 1.100m -1.881m 23:00 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e 8.307m 1.786m -1.593m Fri/06-Jan-2017 07:00 JP Overtime Pay Nov N/A -1.4% 07:30 AU Trade Balance G&S (A$)* Nov -550m -1541m 07:30 AU Goods/Services Imports Nov N/A 2.0% 07:30 AU Goods/Services Exports Nov N/A 1.0% 08:45 CN Caixin Services PMI Dec N/A 53.1 15:30 HK Foreign Reserves Dec N/A 385.00b 20:30 US International Trade MM $ Nov -42.5b -42.6b 20:30 US Non-farm Payrolls Dec 178k 178k 20:30 US Private Payrolls Dec 170k 156k 20:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls Dec 0k -4k 20:30 US Government Payrolls Dec 7k 22k 20:30 US Unemployment Rate Dec 4.7% 4.6% 20:30 US Average Hourly Earnings MM Dec 0.3% -0.1% 20:30 US Average Weekly Hours All Employees Dec 34.4h 34.4h 20:30 US Labor Force Participation Rate Dec N/A 62.7% 20:30 US U6 Underemployment Rate Dec N/A 9.3% 22:00 US Factory Orders MM Nov -2.2% 2.7% 22:00 US Factory Orders Ex-Trans MM Nov N/A 0.8% 22:00 US Durable Goods Orders Rev MM Nov N/A -4.6% 22:00 US Durables Ex-Transportation Rev MM Nov N/A 0.5% 22:00 US Nondef Cap Ex-Air Rev MM Nov N/A 0.9%
Page 3 of 6 23:00 CN FX Reserves (Monthly)* Dec N/A 3.052t Sat/07-Jan-2017 01:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Jan 6 (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)
Page 4 of 6 SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017 Area 19600 masih efektif meredam reli Namun daily trend masih cenderung bullish Short-term support berada di sekitar 19120 18925 Resistance berikutnya di level puncak 20035 (Research @ErwinRiset) DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 05 Jan SSIpmH7 19445 19550 19365 185 19430 --- 40 0.21 27791 05 Jan SSIamH7 19615 19650 19455 195 19470 19470 130 0.66 54123 04 Jan SSIpmH7 19615 19665 19520 145 19645 --- 45 0.23 20419 04 Jan SSIamH7 19290 19635 19260 375 19600 19600 375 1.95 60530 03 Jan SSIpmH7 19245 19420 19170 250 19275 --- 50 0.26 13399 03 Jan SSIamH7 19215 19255 19140 115 19225 19225 155 0.81 7069 02 Jan SSIpmH7 H O L I D A Y 02 Jan SSIamH7 H O L I D A Y 30 Dec SSIpmH7 19080 19125 19000 125 19000 --- 70 0.37 9734 30 Dec SSIamH7 19040 19170 18970 200 19070 19070 5 0.03 41787 WEEKLY JANUARY 2017 DECEMBER 2016 2017 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 19665 19140 19665 19140 19615 18225 19665 19140 (04/Jan) (03/Jan) (04/Jan) (03/Jan) (20/Dec) (05/Dec) (04/Jan) (03/Jan) RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION 20565 High 19/Aug/2015 20340 High 20/Aug/2015 20035 Peak level 19890 High 18/Dec/2015 (Reaction high) 19365 Reaction low (1-H chart) 19140 Reaction low (1-H chart) 18925 Reaction low (1-H chart) 18760 Reaction low (1-H chart) BUY 19405 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 19450 19550 TARGET 19675
Page 5 of 6 KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017 Retracement dekati short-term support di 262 Minor trendline support di sekitar 260 Waspadai RSI di zona overbought (Research @ErwinRiset) DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 05 Jan 263.05 263.35 262.30 1.05 262.65 262.65 0.70 0.27 86761 04 Jan 263.00 263.55 262.80 0.75 263.35 263.35 0.15 0.06 72336 03 Jan 261.75 263.20 261.35 1.85 163.20 263.20 2.00 0.77 89599 02 Jan 260.05 261.90 259.25 2.65 261.20 261.20 1.15 0.44 81174 30 Dec H O L I D A Y 29 Dec 259.90 260.35 259.25 1.10 260.05 260.05 0.35 0.13 74134 WEEKLY JANUARY 2017 DECEMBER 2016 2017 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 263.55 259.25 263.55 259.25 260.95 251.45 263.55 259.25 (04/Jan) (02/Jan) (04/Jan) (02/Jan) (21/Dec) (05/Dec) (04/Jan) (02/Jan) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION 269.60 High 04/May/2015 (Reaction high) 267.75 High 06/May/2015 266.35 High 26/May/2015 (Reaction high) 264.15 High 27/May/2015 261.35 Low 03/Jan/2017 258.45 Reaction low (1-H chart) 256.50 Low 15/Dec/2016 255.25 Reaction low (1-H chart) BUY 262.00 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 261.25 TARGET 264.30 265.25
Page 6 of 6 HSIF7 (Hang Seng Jan Futures) Exp. Date: 26 January 2017 Rebound berkembang, hadapi area resistance di 22584 (38.2% retracement of wave 24374-21477) Area support krusial di 22100 (Research @ErwinRiset) DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 05 Jan 22254 22494 22207 287 22478 22484 379 1.72 86436 04 Jan 22175 22233 22058 175 22099 22099 46 0.21 77437 03 Jan 21920 22195 21863 332 22145 22145 183 0.83 78680 02 Jan H O L I D A Y 30 Dec (HSIF7) 21831 22056 21813 243 21964 21962 175 0.80 74242 29 Dec (HSIF7) 21573 21799 21510 289 21789 21789 58 0.27 78579 28 Dec (HSIF7) 21516 21800 21497 303 21731 21731 180 0.84 72108 WEEKLY JANUARY 2017 DECEMBER 2016 2017 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 22494 21863 22494 21863 23146 21477 22494 21863 (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (08/Dec) (23/Dec) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION 23286 High 01/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 23146 High 08/Dec/2016 (Reaction high) 22882 Reaction high ( 4-H chart) 22648 High 14/Dec/2016 (Reaction high) 22325 Reaction low (4-H chart) 22058 Reaction low (4-H chart) 21863 Reaction low (4-H chart) 21477 Low 23/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 22380 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 22300 TARGET 22525 22655