Embun Pagi. Jun 23, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Another attractive investment
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- Veronika Widya Lesmana
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1 Renaldy Effendy For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 4, MSCI EM HANG SENG 27, KOSPI 2, FTSE 6, DJIA 18, NASDAQ 5, Valuation 2015F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY Policy Rate yr yr FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13, USD/KRW 1, USD/JPY USD/CNY Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI Gold 1, Coal Palm Oil Rubber Nickel 12, Copper 5, Tin 15, Another attractive investment Indeks dollar turun -3,8% sejak awal Juni di tengah keputusan Fed untuk tetap berhati-hati dalam menaikkan suku bunga. Pada saat yang sama, harga emas meningkat c.1,0% dikarenakan oleh ketidakpastian dan volatilitas pasar yang berlangsung lebih lama dari ekspektasi pasar membuat investor beralih ke asset lain yang tergolong aman seperti emas dan USD. Sebagai catatan, bank sentral telah meningkatkan cadangan emas selama lima tahun terakhir termasuk 477,2 ton pada tahun 2014 menurut World Gold Council. Ditambah juga permintaan emas di India, yang menyumbang 36% dari konsumsi dunia, naik sebesar 15% YoY di 1Q15 sementara pasokan tidak berubah. Sayangnya, kebingungan di pasar meninggalkan investor berharap untuk mendapatkan kejelasan dari Fed berkaitan dengan suku bunga, yang tidak diterima investor. Oleh karena itum indeks dolar turun sementara emas naik (untuk saat ini). Meskipun indeks dolar tampaknya berada dalam tren menurun, kami percaya bahwa Fed akan tetap menaikan suku bunga; pasar mengharapkan kenaikan di bulan September. Antara sekarang dan kemudian, kami melihat kesempatan bagi harga emas untuk naik lebih lagi. Sebelumnya, penurunan harga emas adalah hasil dari peningkatan indicator ekonomi, yang menyebabkan investor untuk beralih ke asset yang lebih menghasilkan seperti saham. Namun, kami yakin saham sekarang dinilai terlalu tinggi (DJIA diperdagangkan di 16,1x 2015F P/E vs. 14,1x rata-rata 5 tahun sejarah P/E, sedangkan 2015F ROE di 19,3% vs. sejarah rata-rata 5 tahun 19,3%). Kami mengantisipasi koreksi akan datang yang akan menyebabkan rotasi arus dari saham ke emas. Perusahaan yang mempunyai bisnis emas seperti PT Aneka Tambang (ANTM), akan diuntungkan sementara dari sentiment ini. Dari sisi domestic, permintaan emas akan meningkat menjelang periode Ramadan yang membuat orang membeli perhiasan lebih. (permintaan emas naik 4% YoY di 1Q15). Negative correlation between dollar and gold JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt) 1,200 5,500 4,500 1,000 3,500 05/13 02/14 11/ Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
2 Local flashes PTPP: Raih Proyek Baru Rp11,82 Triliun Sampai Pertengahan Juni. Perusahaan konstruksi PT PP (Persero) Tbk sampai dengan pertengahan Juni telah meraih proyek baru sebesar Rp11,82 triliun sehingga total order book sampai dengan pertengahan Juni mencapai Rp40,82 triliun. Taufik Hidayat, Corporate Secretary PTPP, mengatakan proyek baru tersebut mencapai 44% dari total target perolehan proyek baru yang ditetapkan sepanjang tahun ini, yaitu sebesar Rp27 triliun. (Bisnis Indonesia) ADHI: Anak Usaha Adhi Karya Kantongi Utang Rp100 Miliar. PT Adhi Persada Properti, anak usaha PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk. mengantongi pinjaman jangka menengah senilai Rp100 miliar untuk mendanai dua proyek. Sekretaris Perusahaan Adhi Karya Ki Syahgolang Permata mengatakan penerbitan utang jangka menengah (medium term notes/mtn) tersebut dilakukan pada 18 Juni (Bisnis Indonesia) RIMO: Rimo International Lestari Rights Issue Rp8,1 Triliun. Emiten perdagangan dan keagenan PT Rimo International Lestari Tbk. (RIMO) menerbitkan 30,6 miliar saham baru melalui mekanisme rights issue senilai total Rp8,1 triliun. Berdasarkan prospektus ringkas yang dipublikasikan perseroan, disebutkan penawaran umum terbatas I (PUT) melalui penerbitan hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu (HMETD) akan meminta restu rapat umum pemegang saham luar biasa (RUPSLB) pada 4 Agustus (Bisnis Indonesia) BTEL: Restrukturisasi utang, BTEL terbitkan saham baru. PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL) tetap melanjutkan restrukturisasi utang berdasarkan putusan perdamaian (homologasi) dengan kreditur dalam proses Penundaan Kewajiban Pembayaran Utang (PKPU) di Pengadilan Niaga Jakarta Pusat. Untuk menindaklanjuti proses restrukturisasi, BTEL akan menerbitkan saham baru yang disesuaikan dengan jumlah Obligasi Wajib Konversi (OWK). Rencana penerbitan saham baru BTEL telah mendapat persetujuan pemegang saham dalam Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Luar Biasa (RUPSLB) pada Senin (22/6). Hal ini merupakan bentuk penyelesaian sebagian besar utang perseroan. (Kontan) BTPN: BTPN proses izin akuisisi asuransi jiwa. PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN) tengah memproses izin untuk melakukan akuisisi perusahaan asuransi jiwa kepada Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Direktur Kepatuhan BTPN Anika Faisal, menuturkan, perusahaan asuransi yang akan diakuisisi oleh perseroan adalah perusahaan asuransi lokal. Anika mengungkapkan, perusahaan asuransi yang tengah dalam proses izin akuisisi tersebut nantinya akan diarahkan untuk menjual produk asuransi jiwa kredit mikro. Hal ini dilakukan lantaran banyak debitur mikro BTPN yang akan dicover oleh asuransi jiwa ini. (Kontan) BBRI: BRI masih uji tuntas BRIngin Life. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) belum memastikan valuasi harga yang pas untuk rencana akuisisi mayoritas saham BRIngin Life. Hingga saat ini, bank spesialis kredit mikro masih terus melakukan due dilligence alias uji tuntas. Dengan begitu, Haru Kusmahargyo, Direktur Keuangan BRI belum dapat memastikan kapan realisasi akuisisi BRIngin Life bisa terwujud. Pun begitu dengan jumlah persentase saham yang bakal dikuasasi BRI. "Harga dan presentase saham belum," ucap Haru. (Kontan) ANJT: Kuartal III, Austindo Bangun Pabrik Kelapa Sawit Ketapang US$ 15 juta. PT Austindo Nusantara Jaya Tbk (ANJT) segera membangun pabrik kelapa sawit (PKS) di Ketapang, Kalimantan Barat pada awal kuartal III Pembangunan PKS keempat perseroan tersebut menelan investasi US$ 15 juta. Di awal kuartal ketiga kami akan segera ground breaking. Sesuai rencana, akan selesai di Oktober 2016, kata Direktur Keuangan Austindo Nusantara Lucas Kurniawan. (Berita Satu) 2
3 Technical analysis Recommendation Trading Close 4,959 Resistance 5,005 Support 4,935 Stop-Loss 4,825 View from the Charts Mengawali pekan perdagangan kali ini IHSG ditutup melemah -0.5%, sedikit di atas basis support 4,935 maupun retracement support 4,950 di level 4,959. Mayoritas sektor mengalami pelemahan, dimana penurunan yang cukup dalam di alami oleh sektor infrastruktur yang tergerus -1.3%, agrikultur -1,2%, aneka industri pun menyusut 0.7%. Para pelaku asing mencatatkan nilai penjualan bersih sebesar IDR63.3bn, diseluruh papan perdagangan. Katalis yang mendominasi pergerakan IHSG kemarin, masih terpusat pada perkembangan penyelesaian utang Yunani. Bargain hunting terhadap beberapa saham seperti BBNI, PGAS, PWON, BWPT menyemarakan perdagangan kemarin. Mengakibatkan IHSG tertahan pada area 4,950-5,000. Beberapa indikator teknikal masih memberikan ruang untuk pergerakan positif, PSAR, MA/MACD selanjutnya bergerak pada area konsolidasi dalam rentang harga 4,935-5,010. Chart 1. IHSG Daily Chart Chart 2. IHSG Intraday Chart Source: HOTS, Source: HOTS, 3
4 Stocks on our focus list Recommendation Trading Target Price 18,000 Close 17,400 Resistance 17,600 Support 17,200 Stop-Loss 16,900 PT Matahari Department Store, Tbk (LPPF) Pada perdagangan kemarin awal pekan kemarin, LPPF mencatatkan pelemahan -0.6% ditutup pada harga IDR17,400. Uptrend support harga IDR17,000 masih cukup kuat menahan tekanan pelemahan yang terjadi di awal sesi perdagangan. Tercermin pada kecenderungan arah positif MA, yang memberikan indikasi terbentuknya golden cross distribusi MACD yang masih cukup kuat, kami melihat peluang LPPF melakukan penetrasi resistensi IDR17,600 akan terjadi pada perdagangan hari ini. Namun pada kondisi overbought stochastic 89.4% pergerakan LPPF akan dibayangi oleh aksi ambil untung dengan target pelemahan menguji uptrend support IDR17,000. Kami perkirakan LPPF akan mencoba bergerak dalam rentang harga IDR17,000-17,650 Chart 3. LPPF HOTS, 4
5 Recommendation Trading Target Price 440 Close 433 Resistance 440 Support 420 Stop-Loss 415 PT Pakuwon Jati, Tbk (PWON) PWON berhasil ditutup menguat tipis 0.9% di harga IDR433 dengan meninggalkan jejak indikasi pembetukan golden cross, yang diharapkan mendorong kembali pergerakan PWON menuju penetrasi resistensi IDR440. Perketat stop-loss IDR415 serta waspadai celah harga support yang terbentuk pada area overbought-nya di kisaran IDR Namun distribusi MACD serta indikasi golden cross MA, membuka peluang PWON untuk bergerak positif dalam rentang IDR Chart 4. PWON HOTS, 5
6 Recommendation Trading Target Price 9,500 Close 9,200 Resistance 9,350 Support 9,175 Stop-Loss 9,050 PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure, Tbk (TBIG) Selama 6 hari TBIG telah mencatatkan kenaikan 6% dan TBIG mengawali pekan ini dengan membukukan kembali penguatan sebesar 1.1% di level harga IDR9,200 mendekati resistensi downtrendnya di IDR9,400. Dalam kondisi overbought 86%, TBIG masih memiliki ruang pergerakan positif dan diharapkan mampu mendorong kelanjutan penguatan penetrasi resistensi IDR9,350. Hal tersebut tercermin dengan adanya indikasi golden cross dan MACD yang memasuki area distribusi positif. Chart 5. TBIG HOTS, 6
7 Chart 6. JCI Vs. IDR/USD (pt) JCI Composite Index (L) 5,600 USD/IDR (R) 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 3/23 4/6 4/20 5/4 5/18 6/1 6/15 Source: Bloomberg, (IDR) 13,800 13,300 12,800 12,300 11,800 11,300 Chart 7. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) D 1W 1M 1Y Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, Absolute Relative 7.7 Chart 8. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) Chart 9. Energy price (USDmn) Day 5 Days ((USD/b) Brent (L) CPO(R) (USD) ,400 2,300 2,200 2, , Korea Taiwan Indonesia ThailandPhilippines India Note: The latest figure for India is Jun, 19 th ; Source: Bloomberg, 40 3/15 4/15 4/15 5/15 5/15 6/15 6/15 Source: Bloomberg, 2,000 1,900 Chart 10. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 11. Precious metal price (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin /15 4/15 5/15 6/15 Source: Bloomberg, Silver Gold Platinum /15 4/15 5/15 6/15 Source: Bloomberg, 7
8 Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name BANKING Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 Bank Central Asia Tbk PT BBCA 13, , Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT BMRI 9, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBRI 10, , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBNI 5, , Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT BDMN 4,370 41, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk PT BTPN 3,750 21, PROPERTY Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT SSIA 1,000 4, Ciputra Property Tbk PT CTRP 575 3, N/A Pakuwon Jati Tbk PT PWON , Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT ASRI , Bumi Serpong Damai PT BSDE 1,780 34, CONSTRUCTION Total Bangun Persada Tbk PT TOTL 860 2, Adhi Karya Persero Tbk PT ADHI 2,180 3, Wijaya Karya Persero Tbk PT WIKA 2,740 16, Pembangunan Perumahan Persero Tbk PT PTPP 3,570 17, Waskita Karya Persero Tbk PT WSKT 1,585 22, RETAIL & CONSUMER Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT INDF 6,900 60, Kalbe Farma Tbk PT KLBF 1,645 77, Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT MAPI 5,650 9, Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT UNVR 41, , Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT ICBP 12,975 75, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk PT RALS 710 5, Mayora Indah Tbk PT MYOR 26,025 23, Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PT ACES , Gudang Garam Tbk PT GGRM 46,000 88, Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk PT ROTI 1,145 5, AUTOMOTIVE Astra International Tbk PT ASII 7, , Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk PT IMAS 3,515 9, N/A Astra Otoparts Tbk PT AUTO 2,365 11, TELECOMMUNICATION Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk PT TLKM 2, , XL Axiata Tbk PT EXCL 4,000 34, N/A Indosat Tbk PT ISAT 4,060 22, INFRASTRUCTURE Jasa Marga Persero Tbk PT JSMR 5,550 37, Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk PT TBIG 9,200 44, MINING Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT ANTM 715 6, N/A Timah Persero Tbk PT TINS 745 5, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Persero Tbk PTBA 9,000 20, CEMENT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT INTP 21,025 77, Holcim Indonesia Tbk PT SMCB 1,520 11, Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk PT SMGR 12,350 73, Source: Bloomberg, *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 8
9 Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 2, ASRI IJ , Mining 1, GEMS IJ , Basic-Industry HERO IJ , Miscellaneous Industry 1, TINS IJ 745 5, Consumer Goods 2, KIJA IJ 248 5, Property & Construction ISAT IJ , Infrastructure 1, BCAP IJ , Finance BWPT IJ , Trade ACES IJ , Composite 4, KPIG IJ , Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close UNVR IJ ,550 TLKM IJ ,835 ASRI IJ BBRI IJ ,950 BBCA IJ ,725 PGAS IJ ,295 GEMS IJ 6.7 1,600 ASII IJ ,000 TBIG IJ 1.1 9,200 MNCN IJ ,900 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 3:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI :00am EUR French Flash Services PMI :30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI :30am EUR German Flash Services PMI :00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI :00am EUR Flash Services PMI :00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.1% -0.1% 6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 1-5 8:00am USD FOMC Member Powell Speaks 8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% -0.2% 8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.6% -1.0% 9:00am USD HPI m/m 0.6% 0.3% 9:45am USD Flash Manufacturing PMI :00am USD New Home Sales 524K 517K 10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 3 1 7:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 7:50pm JPY SPPI y/y 0.4% 0.7% 10:00pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m 1.1% Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or l iability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia
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March 17, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,435.3
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Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. Jun 15, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Government-led economic growth
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Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. March 23, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at ICBP : Getting stronger than ever
March 23, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,443.1-0.2
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Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1140 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 4,771.3-1.8-1.3-4.6
Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. March 20, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at KLBF : The Green Potion
March 20, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,453.9
Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. Jun 30, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Preliminary caution
Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1140 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 4,882.6-0.8-5.6
Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. Jul 02, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at KAEF: May achieve internal target
Dang Maulida +62-21-515-1140 dangmaulida@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 4,904.1-0.1-5.8 0.0 MSCI
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March 30, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,396.9
Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. Jun 25, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at
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February 02, 2015 Taye Shim +62-21-515-3281 taye.shim@dwsec.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,289.4 0.5 0.4
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March 25, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,447.6
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February 09, 2015 Taye Shim +62-21-515-3281 taye.shim@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,342.5 1.2
Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. March 19, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at GGRM : Not as bad as it seems
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