Embun Pagi. Maret 9, Consumption booster
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- Herman Makmur
- 6 tahun lalu
- Tontonan:
Transkripsi
1 Mimi Halimin For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Market Index JCI 5, MSCI EM HANG SENG 24, KOSPI 1, FTSE 6, DJIA 17, NASDAQ 4, Valuation 2015F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI Consumption booster Ada begitu banyak alasan mengapa sektor consumer bisa dikatakan sebagai defensive sector. Salah satunya adalah karena struktur dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia ditopang oleh konsumsi rumah tangga (55.1% pada triwulan III-2014). Ditambah dengan berkembangnya middle income household di Indonesia, menambah cerah prospek sektor consumer. Salah satu emiten di sektor consumer adalah PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP). ICBP merupakan produsen makanan dalam kemasan dengan berbagai pilihan produk makanan sehari-hari bagi konsumen. ICBP membagi segmen bisnis mereka menjadi enam bisnis unit antara lain mi instan, dairy, makanan ringan, penyedap makanan, nutrisi&makanan khusus dan minuman. Divisi mi instan merupakan penyokong terbesar dari bisnis ICBP dengan kontribusi 66.9% (per September 2014) ke total penjualan. Kami menilai saham ICBP masih menarik dikarenakan: Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY Policy Rate yr yr FX USD/IDR 12, USD/KRW 1, USD/JPY USD/CNY Commodities WTI Gold 1, Coal Palm Oil Rubber Nickel 14, Copper 5, Tin 18, JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) JCI MSCI EM 5,500 4,500 (pt) 1,200 1,000 Kecenderungan masyarakat untuk membeli makanan instan. Berdasarkan data dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengenai Persentase Pengeluaran Rata-rata per Kapita Sebulan Menurut Kelompok Barang menunjukan bahwa kelompok makanan jadi merupakan kontributor terbesar dari kelompok makanan secara total. Persentase makanan jadi (12.5% per Sept 2013) bahkan lebih besar dari padi-padian (7.5%). Besarnya permintaan mi instan di Indonesia. Berdasarkan data dari World Instant Noodles Association, Indonesia menempati posisi kedua global demand for instant noodles, dengan 14.9bn packets (bags/cups) di Posisi pertama dipegang oleh China/Hong Kong dengan 46.2bn packets sedangkan posisi ketiga adalah Jepang dengan 5.5bn packets. Ekspansi usaha dengan akuisisi dan Joint Venture (JV). ICBP merupakan emiten yang rajin melakukan ekspansi. Terakhir, Maret 2015 ICBP menyetujui pembelian 9,88% saham JC Comsa dengan total nilai transaksi sekitar 284.4mn. JC Comsa merupakan perusahaan yang berkedudukan di Jepang dengan kegiatan usaha utama memproduksi dan mengolah berbagai jenis produk makanan, layanan food service serta pengelolaan restaurant chain. Dari aksi ini, ICBP diharapkan bisa memanfaatkan peluang dan keahlian dalam memproses berbagai produk berbasis tepung terigu yang bernilai tambah dan dapat meningkatkan potensi usaha. Selain itu, masih segar dalam ingatan kita tentang pembelian 100% saham yang diterbitkan oleh PT Danone Dairy Indonesia, dan pembelian merek dagang dan desain industri yang berhubungan dengan produk Milkuat. Saat ini ICBP diperdagangkan di 27x 2015F P/E, sedikit dibawah consumer index 28x 2015F P/E. Berdasarkan analisa teknikal, ICBP bergerak dalam trend sideways dengan rentang IDR14,000 IDR14,725 untuk short term. 3,500 05/13 02/14 11/14 800
2 Local flashes ANTM: Setelah Rugi Ratusan Miliar, Antam Andalkan Modal Negara. Emiten pelat merah PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk. bakal mengandalkan modal negara dan right issue untuk menggenjot kinerja tahun ini setelah tahun lalu rugi ratusan miliar rupiah. Sepanjang tahun lalu, emiten berkode saham ANTM membukukan rugi bersih sebesar Rp775 miliar dengan penjualan sebesar Rp9,42 triliun. Hal itu terjadi akibat adanya larangan ekspor komoditas mineral mentah dan kondisi harga yang kurang menguntungkan. (Bisnis Indonesia) BMRI: Sekuritisasi Aset: Bank Mandiri Siapkan Rp1 Triliun. PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk berencana menerbitkan surat utang dalam bentuk sekuritisasi aset kredit pemilikan rumah (KPR) senilai Rp1 triliun. Pahala N Mansury, Direktur Keuangan & Strategi Bank Mandiri, mengatakan penerbitan diharapkan bisa dilakukan paling lambat pada Juni (Bisnis Indonesia) BRPT: Barito Pacific anggarkan Rp4triliun untuk pembangkit. PT Barito Pacific (BRPT) berencana untuk membangun pembangkit listrik berkapasitas 150 MW di dekat kawasan industri Cilegon, Jawa Barat, dengan investasi awal sekitar Rp4triliun (USD317juta). Presiden Direktur BRPT Agus Salim Pangestu mengatakan bahwa perusahaan belum memutuskan apakah pihaknya akan membangun pembangkit listrik berbahan bakar batubara atau gas, meskipun dananya telah dialokasikan untuk proyek pembangkit. (Jakarta Post) KLBF: Bisnis Kalbe Farma masih berjalan meski rupiah melemah. Perusahaan farmasi terbesar Indonesia Kalbe Farma (KLBF) masih berada pada treknya untuk mencapai target bisnis perusahaan pada tahun ini meskipun di tengah pelemahan rupiah terhadap dolar, yang menyebabkan kenaikan tajam pada beban operasi. Direktur Keuangan dan Corporate Secretary Kalbe Farma Vidjongtius mengatakan bahwa depresiasi tajam pada rupiah telah memangkas profit margin dikarenakan 100 persen dari bahan baku perusahaan merupakan produk impor. (Jakarta Post) KAEF: Laba Bersih Kimia Farma Naik 9,69% Tahun Lalu. BUMN farmasi, PT Kimia Farma Tbk. (KAEF) membukukan kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 9,69% sepanjang tahun lalu. Berdasarkan lapran keuangan 2014 yang dikutip Bisnis, Jumat (6/3/2015), laba bersih Kimia Farma tercatat Rp236,53 miliar naik dari Rp215,64 miliar. Kenaikan itu terjadi seiring penguatan pendapatan sebesar 3,99% ke Rp4,52 triliun dari Rp4,35 triliun pada (Bisnis Indonesia) KIJA: Jababeka Luncurkan Konsep Butik Ala Beverly Hills Di Cikarang. Setelah sukses dengan penjualan apartemen New Elvis Tower, PT Jababeka Tbk kembali meluncurkan produk terbarunya bertajuk Rodeo Drive Boutique Shophouses, di Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Cikarang. Rodeo Drive Boutique Shophouses merupakan pusat komersial berkonsep butik. Konsep tersebut mengadaptasi tema Rodeo Drive yang berada di Beverly Hills,USA. Direktur PT Jababeka Tbk Suteja Darmono mengatakan unit-unit di Rodeo Drive Jababeka cocok dikembangkan oleh pebisnis yang bergerak di bidang jasa salon, studio foto, fesyen dan butik. (Bisnis Indonesia) NRCA: Dua bulan pertama, NRCA raih 17% kontrak baru. Hingga bulan kedua tahun ini, PT Nusa Raya Cipta Tbk (NRCA) baru berhasil mengantongi kontrak baru sebesar 17% dari total target Dalam dua bulan pertama, NRCA meraih kontrak baru sebesar Rp 700 miliar. "Sebagian besar berasal dari proyek pembangunan hotel," kata Priscila Endita, Investor Relation NRCA. (Kontan) 2
3 Chart 1. JCI Vs. IDR/USD (pt) JCI Composite Index (L) 5,600 USD/IDR (R) 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 12/8 12/22 1/5 1/19 2/2 2/16 3/2 (IDR) 13,100 12,900 12,700 12,500 12,300 12,100 11,900 11,700 11,500 11,300 Chart 2. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Absolute D 1W 1M 1Y Relative Chart 3. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) Chart 4. Energy price (USDmn) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Note: The latest figure for India is March, 4 th; Chart 5. Non-ferrous metal price Day 5 Days 1, Korea Taiwan Indonesia ThailandPhilippines India (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin 70 12/14 1/15 2/15 (USD/b) Brent (L) CPO(R) (USD) 70 2,500 2, ,300 2, ,100 2, ,900 12/14 12/14 1/15 1/15 2/15 2/15 3/15 Chart 6. Precious metal price Silver Gold Platinum /14 1/15 2/15 3/15 3
4 Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name BANKING Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 Bank Central Asia Tbk PT BBCA 14, , Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT BMRI 12, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBRI 13, , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBNI 6, , Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT BDMN 4,925 47, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk PT BTPN 4,220 24, PROPERTY Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT SSIA 1,240 5, Ciputra Property Tbk PT CTRP 710 4, N/A N/A Pakuwon Jati Tbk PT PWON , Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT ASRI , Bumi Serpong Damai PT BSDE 2,090 38, CONSTRUCTION Total Bangun Persada Tbk PT TOTL 1,005 3, Adhi Karya Persero Tbk PT ADHI 3,265 5, Wijaya Karya Persero Tbk PT WIKA 3,505 21, Pembangunan Perumahan Persero Tbk PT PTPP 3,960 19, Waskita Karya Persero Tbk PT WSKT 1,780 17, RETAIL & CONSUMER Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT INDF 7,475 65, Kalbe Farma Tbk PT KLBF 1,845 86, Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT MAPI 5,350 8, Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT UNVR 37, , Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT ICBP 14,525 84, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk PT RALS 755 5, Mayora Indah Tbk PT MYOR 24,850 22, Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PT ACES , Gudang Garam Tbk PT GGRM 54, , Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk PT ROTI 1,250 6, AUTOMOTIVE Astra International Tbk PT ASII 8, , Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk PT IMAS 4,000 11, Astra Otoparts Tbk PT AUTO 3,655 17, TELECOMMUNICATION Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk PT TLKM 2, , XL Axiata Tbk PT EXCL 4,535 38, N/A Indosat Tbk PT ISAT 4,115 22, INFRASTRUCTURE Jasa Marga Persero Tbk PT JSMR 7,150 48, Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk PT TBIG 9,350 44, MINING Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT ANTM 1,000 9, N/A Timah Persero Tbk PT TINS 1,040 7, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Persero Tbk PTBA 10,925 25, CEMENT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT INTP 24,300 89, Holcim Indonesia Tbk PT SMCB 1,900 14, Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk PT SMGR 14,950 88, *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 4
5 Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 2, PLIN IJ , Mining 1, GJTL IJ ,652 (0.37) Basic-Industry BCAP IJ , Miscellaneous Industry 1, NISP IJ , Consumer Goods 2, BMTR IJ , Property & Construction SILO IJ , Infrastructure 1, UNVR IJ , Finance TRIO IJ , Trade BDMN IJ , Composite 5, ASII IJ , Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close UNVR IJ ,800 BSDE IJ ,090 ASII IJ 2.9 8,075 SMRA IJ ,665 TLKM IJ 2.6 2,985 ADRO IJ BMRI IJ ,100 PWON IJ BBRI IJ ,075 CTRA IJ ,390 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 1:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment :00am EUR German Trade Balance 20.4B 21.8B 5:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings 8:15am CAD Housing Starts 176K 187K 10:00am USD Labor Market Conditions Index m/m 4.9 1:30pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 7:50pm JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.5% 3.4% 8:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 0.2% 8:30pm AUD NAB Business Confidence 3 9:30pm CNY CPI y/y 1.0% 0.8% 9:30pm CNY PPI y/y -4.2% -4.3% 10th-13th NZD REINZ HPI m/m -1.0% Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia
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March 17, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,435.3
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Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. Jun 23, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Another attractive investment
Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1140 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 4,959.3-0.5-6.2
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Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1140 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 4,882.6-0.8-5.6
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Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. Jun 15, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Government-led economic growth
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Akhmad Nurcahyadi +62-21-515-1141 akhmad.nurcahyadi@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,211.8 0.1
Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. March 23, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at ICBP : Getting stronger than ever
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Akhmad Nurcahyadi +62-21-515-1141 akhmad.nurcahyadi@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,207.1 0.7
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Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. Jun 29, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at
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Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. March 20, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at KLBF : The Green Potion
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Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. March 19, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at GGRM : Not as bad as it seems
March 19, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,413.2-0.5
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March 25, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,447.6
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