Embun Pagi. Jul 31, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Growing investment in Indonesia
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- Lanny Wibowo
- 7 tahun lalu
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1 Maxi Liesyaputra For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 4, MSCI EM HANG SENG 24, KOSPI 2, FTSE 6, DJIA 17, NASDAQ 5, Valuation 2015F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY Policy Rate yr yr FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13, USD/KRW 1, USD/JPY USD/CNY Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI Gold 1, Coal Palm Oil Rubber Nickel 11, Copper 5, Tin 16, JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt) 1,200 5,500 4,500 1,000 Growing investment in Indonesia Data Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) menyatakan bahwa realisasi investasi pada 1H15 mencapai IDR259,7 trilliun, naik 16,6% yoy. Secara rinci, jumlah tersebut terdiri atas penanaman modal dalam negeri (PMDN) sejumlah IDR85,5 trilliun (naik 17,4% yoy) dan penanaman modal asing (PMA) senilai IDR174,2 trilliun (naik 16,1% yoy). BKPM menargetkan total realisasi investasi sejumlah IDR519,5 trilliun sepanjang tahun 2015 yang terdiri atas PMDN sejumlah IDR175,8 trilliun dan PMA sebesar IDR343,1 trilliun. Sehingga pada 1H15 secara total target realisasi investasi telah mencapai 50% dari target sepanjang tahun Sementara realisasi investasi PMDN mencapai 48,6% dari target dan PMA mencapai 50,7% dari target Atas pencapaian ini, ketua BKPM optimis bahwa realisasi investasi 2015 akan melebihi target. Pada 2Q15, total realisasi investasi mencapai IDR135,1 trilliun, naik 16,3% yoy dan 8,4% qoq. Angka ini terdiri atas PMDN sejumlah IDR42,9 trilliun (naik 12,3% yoy dan 0,9% qoq) dan PMA senilai IDR92,2 trilliun (naik 18,2% yoy dan 12,3% qoq). Sektor industri makanan membukukan realiasi investasi PMDN tertinggi sejumlah IDR8 trilliun, diiikuti oleh sektor industri kimia dan farmasi sejumlah IDR7 trilliun, listrik, gas dan air IDR5,4 trilliun dan IDR4,3 trilliun untuk real estat, kawasan industri dan gedung perkantoran. Sementara untuk realisasi investasi PMA, sektor transportasi, pergudangan dan telekomunikasi membukukan investasi USD2,16 miliar, diikuti oleh pertambangan senilai USD1,05 miliar, konstruksi USD631,08 juta dan industri logam, mesin dan elektronik sejumlah USD609,93 juta. Di antara sektor yang mencatat realisasi investasi tertinggi untuk PMDN adalah listrik, gas dan air. Hal ini sejalan dengan tingkat kebutuhan pasokan listrik di Indonesia yang masih sangat tinggi, terutama di wilayah luar pulau Jawa. Wijaya Karya (WIKA) diuntungkan dengan adanya peningkatan pembangunan pembangkit tenaga listrik didukung oleh pengalamannya dalam membangun berbagai jenis pembangkit tenaga listrik, baik pembangkit listrik tenaga air (PLTA) maupun pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) di berbagai wilayah di Indonesia. Domestic direct investment in 2Q % 7.8% 10.0% 18.6% 12.6% 16.4% Food industry Chemical and pharmaceutical Electricity, gas and water supply Real estate, industrial estate and office building Metal, machinery and electronic industry Others 3,500 05/13 02/14 11/ Source: BKPM, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
2 Local flashes ASII: Astra International Catatkan Laba Merosot 18%. Harga komoditas melemah diikuti konsumsi domestik ditambah kompetisi di sektor mobil mempengaruhi kinerja PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) pada semester I PT Astra International Tbk mencatatkan laba bersih turun 18 persen menjadi Rp 8,05 triliun pada semester I 2015 dari periode sama tahun sebelumnya Rp 9,82 triliun. Hal ini diikuti pendapatan bersih yang melemah 9 persen dari Rp 101,52 triliun pada semester I 2015 menjadi Rp 92,50 triliun. Melihat kinerja itu, laba bersih per saham turun 18 persen menjadi 199 pada semester I 2015 dari periode sama tahun sebelumnya 243. (Liputan 6) INCO: Harga Nikel Turun, Laba Vale Indonesia Merosot 38%. PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) mencatatkan laba periode berjalan turun 38,46 persen menjadi US$ 41,83 juta pada semester I 2015 dari periode sama tahun sebelumnya US$ 67,99 juta. Laba turun itu didorong dari pendapatan melemah 15,09 persen menjadi US$ 41,83 juta pada semester I 2015 dari periode sama tahun sebelumnya US$ 482,47 juta. (Liputan 6) BBRI: Semester I 2015, Laba BRI Naik Tipis. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk bersama entitas anak usaha mencatat perolehan laba bersih setelah pajak sebesar Rp11,95 triliun per Juni 2015 atau tumbuh 2,2% secara tahunan. Perolehan laba bersih BRI tumbuh terbatas akibat tekanan beban bunga dan kenaikan beban pencadangan. Tekanan beban bunga tercermin dari penurunan margin bunga bersih (NIM) sedangkan beban cadangan naik akibat kenaikan rasio kredit bermasalah (NPL). (Bisnis Indonesia) SMGR: 1H15, Laba Semen Indonesia Turun ke US$163 Juta. Produsen semen terbesar, Semen Indonesia, mencatatkan penurunan tajam laba bersih pada semester pertama tahun 2015, ungkap Corporate Secretary SMGR Agung Wiharto menjelang pengumuman laporan keuangan. Perusahaan mencatatkan laba bersih sebesar Rp2,2 triliun ($163,3 juta) per Juni Semen Indonesia mencatatkan laba bersih sebesar Rp2,8 triliun pada periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya. (Jakarta Globe) AISA: Pendapatan Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Naik 28,9%. PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk. mencatatkan peningkatan pendapatan sebesar 28,9% dan laba periode berjalan yang diatribusikan kepada pemilik entitas induk sebesar 13,3% pada semester I/2015 dibanding periode yang sama tahun lalu. AISA membukukan pendapatan sebesar Rp3,15 triliun, naik dari posisi tahun sebelumnya Rp2,44 triliun. Sementara laba perseroan mencapai Rp195,96 miliar, naik dari tahun lalu sebesar Rp172,95 miliar. (Bisnis Indonesia) JSMR: Jasa Marga Incar Proyek Tol Pemalang-Batang dan Batang-Semarang. BUMN konstruksi, PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) mengincar dua proyek tol, yaitu Pemalang- Batang dan Batang-Semarang, yang merupakan bagian dari tol Trans Jawa yang kini masih mangkrak. Direktur Utama Jasa Marga Adityawarman mengatakan, pihaknya sudah siap menggarap proyek tersebut jika memang ditunjuk. (Detik Finance) ROTI: Sari Roti raup laba Rp123,35 miliar. PT Nippon Indosari Tbk (ROTI) atau Sari Roti mengalami peningkatan laba 23 persen menjadi Rp123,35 miliar di semester I- 2015, dari posisi laba sebesar Rp100,29 miliar di semester I Mengutip laporan keuangan perseroan di keterbukaan informasi Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Kamis (30/7/2015), laba yang tumbuh mendapatkan sentimen positif dari penjualan yang naik menjadi Rp1,04 triliun di semester I-2015, dari posisi penjualan di periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp914,65 miliar. (Metrotvnews) 2
3 Technical analysis Recommendation Trading Close 4,713 Resistance 4,720 Support 4,710 Stop-Loss 4,680 View from the Charts IHSG pada perdagangan kemarin ditutup melorot -0.2% di level 4,713 mendekati level terendah 2015 (4,712), didominasi oleh aksi ambil untuk para pelaku pasar terhadap sejumlah saham unggulan yang sempat diburu di hari perdagangan sebelumnya seiring dengan kekecewaan para investor akan hasil laporan keuangan emiten kuartal kedua Dilain sisi perburuan terhadap saham-saham ASII PGAS UNTR TLKM INDF turut mewarnai pergerakan IHSG sekaligus menahan laju tekanan jual yang menyeret kembali posisi stochastic menyentuh dasar oversold 0.6%. Akumulasi perburuan saham murah selama sepekan mencatatkan pertumbuhan ratarata 14.2%, dan pada perdagangan kemarin total saham yang diperdagangkan tercatat 14.8% lebih besar dibandingkan hari sebelumnya mewakili total nilai sebesar IDR4.7trn. Para investor asing masih mencatatkan nilai pembelian sebesar IDR286.3bn diseluruh papan perdagangan. Kami perkirakan IHSG di hari ini akan mencoba kembali bertahan dalam rentang 4,700-4,790. Chart 1. IHSG Daily Chart Chart 2. IHSG Intraday Chart Source: HOTS, Source: HOTS, 3
4 Stocks on our focus list Recommendation Take Profit Target Price 27,100 Close 26,650 Resistance 27,100 Support 26,625 Stop-Loss 26,250 PT Mitra Keluarga Karya Sehat, Tbk (MIKA) Pada perdagangan kemarin MIKA ditutup menguat 2.4% di level harga IDR26,650. Dengan demikian, sejak pembalikan arah pada support retracement IDR24,000 (07/15/2015) MIKA telah mengantongi keuntungan sebesar 9.4% mencoba kembali menciptakan rekor harga IDR27,100 sebagai resistensi harga. Pada kondisi stochastic dilevel 86 overbought serta terlihat indikasi profit taking jelang sesi terakhir perdagangan, dengan demikian MIKA pada perdagangan hari ini akan cenderung bergerak memasuki area koreksi menguji support IDR26,625 dan IDR26,250. Chart 3. MIKA HOTS, 4
5 Recommendation Trading Target Price 17,150 Close 16,600 Resistance 16,600 Support 16,175 Stop-Loss 16,050 PT Siloam International Hospitals, Tbk (SILO) Sebagaimana MIKA, SILO-pun telah menguat 16.0% sejak mengalami pembalikan arah pada area support IDR13, (07/15/2015), untuk mencatatkan rekor harga baru IDR16,650 menjelang penutupan sesi perdagangan kemarin sebelum akhirnya ditutup pada level IDR16,600. Total saham yang diperdagangkan kemarinpun berada 47.4% lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan rerata saham yang diperjualbelikan selama 20hr terakhir. Kami perkirakan SILO memiliki peluang bergerak dalam rentang harga IDR16,150-17,150 Chart 4. SILO HOTS, 5
6 Recommendation Trading Target Price 1,780 Close 1,725 Resistance 1,730 Support 1,700 Stop-Loss 1,700 PT Summarecon Agung, Tbk (SMRA) IDR1,725 retracement 61.8% merupakan titik harga penentu arah selanjutnya bagi SMRA hari ini overbought trading stochastic merupakan ruang dimana masih terbuka peluang bagi SMRA melanjutkan penguatannya menguji resistensi harga IDR1,730 kemudian 1,780. Namun MA(5,20) terlihat pula potensi deadcross yang akan menekan SMRA untuk kembali terkoreksi dan menguji support target IDR1,560 retracement. Berdasarkan kondisi tersebut di atas perketat stop-loss IDR1,700, selanjutnya manfaatkan momentum pergerakan yang kami perkirakan akan berada pada rentang harga IDR1,700-,1,750. Chart 5. SMRA HOTS, 6
7 Chart 6. JCI Vs. IDR/USD (pt) JCI Composite Index (L) 5,400 USD/IDR (R) 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 4/30 5/14 5/28 6/11 6/25 7/9 7/23 Source: Bloomberg, (IDR) 13,500 13,400 13,300 13,200 13,100 13,000 12,900 12,800 Chart 7. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, Absolute D 1W 1M 1Y Relative 8.7 Chart 8. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) Chart 9. Energy price (USDmn) Note: The latest figure for India is Jul, 29 th ; Source: Bloomberg, 1 Day 5 Days Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India -287 (USDmn) Brent (L) CPO(R) (USD) 70 2,400 2, ,200 2, , ,900 4/15 5/15 5/15 6/15 6/15 7/15 7/15 Source: Bloomberg, Chart 10. Non-ferrous metal price (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin /15 5/15 6/15 7/15 Source: Bloomberg, Chart 11. Precious metal price Silver Gold Platinum /15 5/15 6/15 7/15 Source: Bloomberg, 7
8 Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name BANKING Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 Bank Central Asia Tbk PT BBCA 12, , Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT BMRI 9, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBRI 9, , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBNI 4,480 83, Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT BDMN 4,120 39, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk PT BTPN 3,250 18, PROPERTY Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT SSIA 810 3, Ciputra Property Tbk PT CTRP 525 3, Pakuwon Jati Tbk PT PWON , Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT ASRI , Bumi Serpong Damai PT BSDE 1,735 33, CONSTRUCTION Total Bangun Persada Tbk PT TOTL 815 2, Adhi Karya Persero Tbk PT ADHI 2,250 4, Wijaya Karya Persero Tbk PT WIKA 2,645 16, Pembangunan Perumahan Persero Tbk PT PTPP 3,780 18, Waskita Karya Persero Tbk PT WSKT 1,725 24, RETAIL & CONSUMER Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT INDF 5,900 51, Kalbe Farma Tbk PT KLBF 1,715 80, Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT MAPI 4,595 7, Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT UNVR 38, , Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT ICBP 12,000 69, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk PT RALS 705 5, Mayora Indah Tbk PT MYOR 27,100 24, Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PT ACES , Gudang Garam Tbk PT GGRM 47,000 90, Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk PT ROTI 1,190 6, AUTOMOTIVE Astra International Tbk PT ASII 6, , Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk PT IMAS 3,410 9, N/A Astra Otoparts Tbk PT AUTO 2,200 10, TELECOMMUNICATION Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk PT TLKM 2, , XL Axiata Tbk PT EXCL 2,890 24, N/A Indosat Tbk PT ISAT 4,300 23, INFRASTRUCTURE Jasa Marga Persero Tbk PT JSMR 5,525 37, Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk PT TBIG 8,275 39, MINING Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT ANTM 490 4, N/A N/A Timah Persero Tbk PT TINS 605 4, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Persero Tbk PTBA 6,200 14, CEMENT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT INTP 20,000 73, Holcim Indonesia Tbk PT SMCB 1,495 11, Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk PT SMGR 9,925 58, Source: Bloomberg, *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 8
9 Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 1, JKON IJ , Mining INKP IJ 960 5, Basic-Industry CTRS IJ , Miscellaneous Industry 1, WSKT IJ , Consumer Goods 2, TOTO IJ , Property & Construction UNTR IJ , Infrastructure 1, TOWR IJ , Finance LPKR IJ , Trade SMMT IJ , Composite 4, ASII IJ , Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close ASII IJ 2.3 6,575 UNVR IJ ,500 PGAS IJ 2.2 3,985 BBRI IJ ,350 UNTR IJ ,200 BBNI IJ ,480 TLKM IJ 0.5 2,870 SMGR IJ ,925 TOWR IJ 2.8 3,985 AALI IJ ,675 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 1:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y 3.2% 5.8% 2:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.5% 2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.7% 0.1% 4:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 12.3% 12.4% 5:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.2% 0.2% 5:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.8% 0.8% 5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 11.0% 11.1% 5:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.0% 0.1% 8:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.0% -0.1% 8:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.6% 0.7% 9:45am USD Chicago PMI :00am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment :00am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8% 9:00pm CNY Manufacturing PMI :00pm CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.8 Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purpo sed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia
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March 30, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,396.9
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Lebih terperinciEmbun Pagi. March 23, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at ICBP : Getting stronger than ever
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March 19, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,413.2-0.5
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March 20, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,453.9
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February 20, 2015 Betrand Raynaldi +62-21-515-1141 betrand@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,390.4
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