Rate Cuts Reflect Greater Optimism

Transkripsi

1 WEEKLY REPORT D E B T R E S E A R C H 21 JUN 2016 Rate Cuts Reflect Greater Optimism Indonesia s Sovereign Rating S & P Moody s Fitch BB+ Baa3 BBB- Key Market Indicator as of 20-Jun-16 BI Rate 6.50% JCI 4,864 IDR Inflation (y-o-y)-mar % Bank Indonesia (BI) decided to cut its reference rate (BI Rate) by another 25bps from 6.75% to 6.5% last week, the fourth time BI has cut rates since the beginning of the year. In addition, BI also lowered its Deposits Facility and Lending Facility rates by 25bps to 4.5% and 7%, respectively. BI s 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate which is set to replace the benchmark interest rate - was also cut by 25bps to 5.25%. Exhibit 1 shows the term structure of BI s monetary operations for other tenors. Pada Kamis lalu, Bank Indonesia (BI) memutuskan untuk menurunkan BI Rate sebesar 25bps dari 6,75% menjadi 6,5%. Ini merupakan penurunan BI Rate untuk yang keempat kalinya selama tahun Selain BI Rate, suku bunga Deposit Facility dan Lending Facility juga mengalami penurunan sebesar 25bps menjadi 4,5% dan 7%. Seiring dengan rencana pergantian suku bunga acuan yang akan dilaksanakan, BI juga menurunkan BI 7-Days Reverse Repo Rate sebesar 25bps menjadi 5,25%. Pada Exhibit 1 terdapat struktur suku bunga dari operasi moneter BI untuk tenor-tenor lainnya. Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov t Bonds as of 17-Jun-16 IDR 1,628.9 bn Corp Bonds as of 31-May-16 IDR bn Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds IDR tn Corporate Bonds IDR 4.44 tn Benchmark Yield as of 20-Jun-16 FR0053 (5 year) 7.427% FR0056 (10 year) 7.587% FR0073 (15 year) 7.863% FR0072 (20 year) 7.848% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM Government Bond Indices as of 20-Jun-16 Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 7.62% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) Calendar of Event 23-Jun-16 US Initial Jobless Claims (Survey : 270K; Prior : 277K) 23-Jun-16 Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity (Survey : 55; Prior :55.2) 30-Jun-16 Indonesia Money Supply M2 YoY (Survey : NA Prior : 7.1%) Global economy is picking up, albeit slowly, marked by less uncertainty than before. Volatility may heighten, however, ahead of the United Kingdom s vote on whether to withdraw from the European Union, the so-called Brexit. The referendum is scheduled to take place on Thursday and will determine the UK s position in the European Union. Should the UK vote to exit the European Union, demand for safe haven investments - such as US Treasuries for example will increase. In turn, the US dollar will strengthen on the back of stronger foreign inflows. The strengthening of the USD would consequently lead to weakness in the currencies of developing countries, Indonesia included. This uncertainty becomes a reason for central banks in many countries to hold important policy decision prior to UK s referendum. However, low inflation environment and better stability from the currency front compared to last year provide room for BI to cut BI Rate. Since beginning of the year, BI signaled its support to boost nation s growth by cutting its reference rate. Exhibit 1. Term Structure of Monetary Operations Pemulihan ekonomi global masih cenderung lambat ditandai dengan beberapa ketidakpastian yang sedikit mereda. Salah satu kejadian yang berpotensi menimbulkan gejolak adalah keluarnya Inggris dari serikat Eropa atau yang lebih dikenal dengan sebutan brexit. Referendum yang rencananya akan digelar pada Kamis mendatang merupakan penentuan keanggotaan Inggris di serikat Eropa. Jika hal ini terjadi, permintaan terhadap instrumen safe haven, seperti US Treasury, akan mengalami peningkatan yang berimplikasi pada penguatan mata uang USD seiring dengan peningkatan aliran dana asing yang masuk. Penguatan USD mengakibatkan nilai tukar mata uang negara berkembang melemah, termasuk Indonesia. Ketidakpastian tersebut menjadi salah satu pertimbangan bank sentral di berbagai negara untuk menahan pengambilan kebijakan penting menjelang referendum Inggris. Namun, tingkat inflasi yang rendah serta nilai tukar yang relatif lebih stabil dibandingkan dengan tahun lalu memberikan ruang bagi Bank Indonesia untuk memangkas BI Rate. Sejak awal tahun, Bank Indonesia memberikan sinyal yang mendukung peningkatan laju pertumbuhan melalui pemotongan tingkat suku bunga acuan. Tenor 7 Days 2 Weeks 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 9 Month 12 Month Term Structure of Monetary Operations 5.25% 5.45% 5.70% 6.10% 6.30% 6.40% 6.50% Sources : Bank Indonesia As of 16 Jun 2016 Analyst Rifki Rizal (62 21) ext rifkir@danareksa.com Please read important disclosure at the back of this report Silent week Government bond yields moved sideways last week. Danareksa s Government Bonds Yield Index increased by 3bps from 7.59% to 7.62%. The total trading in Government bonds declined significantly from IDR82.4 trillion in the previous week to only IDR48.6 trillion last week, or down IDR33.8 trillion. This is a reflection of seasonally weaker trading activities during the period of Ramadan. This week, yields are still expected to move sideways, and even potentially increase ahead of the UK s much-anticipated Brexit vote. Minggu sepi Yield obligasi Pemerintah bergerak sideways selama minggu lalu. Danareksa Government Bond Yield Index mencatatkan peningkatan sebesar 3bps dari 7,59% menjadi 7,62%. Selain itu, total volume transaksi obligasi Pemerintah selama minggu lalu mengalami penurunan yang cukup signifikan. Total volume transaksi turun Rp33,8 triliun dari Rp82,4 triliun di minggu sebelumnya menjadi Rp48,6 triliun di minggu lalu. Hal ini bersifat seasonal di mana aktifitas perdangan cenderung menurun selama periode Ramadhan. Yield minggu ini diperkirakan masih bergerak sideways dengan potensi meningkat akibat tingginya volatilitas yang berasal dari brexit. Bloomberg Ticker: DFMJ

2 Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 13 Jun - 17 Jun 2016 Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Last Freq Vol Yield Tenor Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Class Duration 17-Jun-16 SPN Jul < 1yr - 17-Jun-16 SPN Jul < 1yr - 13-Jun-16 SPN Aug < 1yr - 17-Jun-16 SPN Sep < 1yr - 17-Jun-16 SPNS Sep < 1yr - 17-Jun-16 FR Sep < 1yr Jun-16 ORI Oct < 1yr - 14-Jun-16 SPNS Dec < 1yr - 17-Jun-16 SR006 5-Mar < 1yr - 17-Jun-16 FR Apr < 1yr Jun-16 SPN Jun < 1yr - 17-Jun-16 FR Jul yr - 5yr Jun-16 ORI Oct yr - 5yr - 17-Jun-16 PBS Jan , yr - 5yr Jun-16 SR Mar , yr - 5yr - 17-Jun-16 FR May , yr - 5yr Jun-16 IFR Aug yr - 5yr Jun-16 FR Aug yr - 5yr Jun-16 ORI Oct yr - 5yr - 17-Jun-16 SR Mar , yr - 5yr - 17-Jun-16 FR Apr , yr - 5yr Jun-16 FR Sep yr - 5yr Jun-16 PBS Sep yr - 5yr Jun-16 FR Nov yr - 5yr Jun-16 FR Jun yr - 5yr Jun-16 FR Jul , yr - 10yr Jun-16 FR May yr - 10yr Jun-16 FR Jun yr - 10yr Jun-16 FR May yr - 10yr Jun-16 FR Jul yr - 10yr Jun-16 FR Aug yr - 10yr Jun-16 FR Mar , yr - 10yr Jun-16 FR Sep yr - 10yr Jun-16 IFR Jan yr - 10yr Jun-16 FR Sep yr - 10yr Jun-16 FR Sep , > 10yr Jun-16 FR May > 10yr Jun-16 FR Jul > 10yr Jun-16 FR Feb > 10yr Jun-16 FR May > 10yr Jun-16 FR Mar , > 10yr Jun-16 IFR Mar > 10yr Jun-16 FR Aug > 10yr Jun-16 FR May , > 10yr Jun-16 FR Jul > 10yr Jun-16 PBS Nov > 10yr Jun-16 FR Jun , > 10yr Jun-16 FR May > 10yr Jun-16 FR Mar , > 10yr Jun-16 FR May , > 10yr Jun-16 FR Jul > 10yr Jun-16 FR Apr > 10yr Jun-16 FR Feb > 10yr

3 Appendix 3. Corporate Bonds Trading 13 Jun - 17 Jun 2016 Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration 14-Jun-16 PPLN08C 21-Jun idaaa Jun-16 TAFS01ACN2 21-Jun idaa Jun-16 FIFA02ACN2 21-Sep idaaa Jun-16 IMFI02ACN2 16-Nov ida Jun-16 BNII01BCN1 6-Dec idaaa Jun-16 BMRI01 11-Dec idaaa Jun-16 SIEXCL01ACN1 12-Dec AAA(idn) Jun-16 ADMF01CCN1 16-Dec idaaa Jun-16 WOMF01ACN4 2-Jan AA(idn) Jun-16 SMFP03CN3 3-Jan idaa Jun-16 JPFA01CN1 12-Jan ida Jun-16 PPLN11A 12-Jan idaaa Jun-16 BMLK01C 13-Jan A(idn) Jun-16 ASDF01CCN1 21-Feb idaaa Jun-16 FIFA01BCN3 14-Mar idaaa Jun-16 IMFI02ACN3 26-Mar ida Jun-16 BCAF01BCN3 27-Mar idaaa Jun-16 ASDF02BCN3 4-Apr idaaa Jun-16 FIFA02ACN3 15-Apr idaaa Jun-16 SMFP01CCN2 25-Apr idaa Jun-16 SMKMYOR02 9-May idaa Jun-16 ADMF02BCN3 14-May idaaa Jun-16 ASDF03ACN1 21-May idaaa Jun-16 NISP02ACN1 21-May idaaa Jun-16 BIMF01ACN2 22-May idbbb Jun-16 ISAT05B 29-May idaaa Jun-16 BBRI01ACN3 30-May idaaa Jun-16 INDF06 31-May idaa Jun-16 WSKT02B 5-Jun ida Jun-16 TAFS02ACN1 11-Jun idaa Jun-16 BCAF01CCN2 14-Jun idaaa Jun-16 BEXI03ACN1 18-Jun idaaa Jun-16 SANF02ACN1 19-Jun AA(idn) Jun-16 MEDC03 19-Jun idaa Jun-16 JMPD13R 21-Jun idaa Jun-16 BVIC03 27-Jun ida Jun-16 BNGA01SB 8-Jul AA(idn) Jun-16 SIKPPLN01 10-Jul idaaa Jun-16 BEXI02CN2 18-Jul idaaa Jun-16 BTPN01BCN2 3-Aug AA(idn) Jun-16 PPGD12A 4-Sep idaa Jun-16 ADMF01CCN3 27-Sep idaaa Jun-16 BEXI02BCN3 16-Oct idaaa Jun-16 ASDF02BCN4 29-Oct idaaa Jun-16 BNII01BCN2 31-Oct idaaa Jun-16 SSIA01B 6-Nov ida Jun-16 PNBN04SB 9-Nov idaa Jun-16 ASDF02CCN2 26-Nov idaaa Jun-16 SDRA02 29-Nov ida Jun-16 ISAT01ACN1 12-Dec idaaa Jun-16 MAPI01BCN1 12-Dec idaa Jun-16 SMFP02BCN5 16-Dec idaa Jun-16 SANF01CN2 16-Dec AA(idn) Jun-16 MEDC01CN1 19-Dec idaa

4 Appendix 4. Corporate Bonds Trading 13 Jun - 17 Jun 2016 (Cont d) Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration 16-Jun-16 PNBN01CN1 20-Dec idaa Jun-16 AKRA01A 21-Dec idaa Jun-16 MDLN02B 27-Dec ida Jun-16 DNRK01BCN1 9-Jan ida Jun-16 BSBR01SB 13-Jan ida Jun-16 ADMF02DCN1 1-Mar idaaa Jun-16 BTPN01BCN3 5-Mar AA(idn) Jun-16 ADHI01ACN2 15-Mar ida Jun-16 ADHISM1CN2 15-Mar ida Jun-16 MEDC01CN2 15-Mar idaa Jun-16 PTPP01CN1 19-Mar ida Jun-16 WOMF01BCN3 2-Apr AA(idn) Jun-16 AISA01 5-Apr ida Jun-16 SIAISA01 5-Apr ida Jun-16 FIFA02BCN1 24-Apr idaaa Jun-16 ISAT01BCN2 4-Jun idaaa Jun-16 BSDE01CN2 5-Jun idaa Jun-16 TAFS01BCN2 11-Jun idaa Jun-16 BNLI02SB 28-Jun idaa Jun-16 ASDF02BCN5 2-Jul idaaa Jun-16 BTPN02BCN1 4-Jul AA(idn) Jun-16 ADMF03BCN2 25-Aug idaaa Jun-16 BNII01SBCN1 6-Dec AA(idn) Jun-16 BEXI01CCN1 20-Dec idaaa Jun-16 BBRI01BCN2 4-Feb idaaa Jun-16 BBKP01SBCN1 6-Mar ida Jun-16 FIFA02BCN3 5-Apr idaaa Jun-16 MYOR04 9-May idaa Jun-16 ASDF03BCN1 11-May idaaa Jun-16 ADMF02CCN3 14-May idaaa Jun-16 BBRI01BCN3 25-May idaaa Jun-16 TUFI02ACN2 1-Jun idaa Jun-16 TAFS02BCN1 1-Jun idaa Jun-16 SANF02BCN1 9-Jun AA(idn) Jun-16 WSKT02CN1 10-Jun ida Jun-16 SMBNII01CN2 10-Jun idaaa Jun-16 BNLI01SBCN1 15-Jun idaa Jun-16 TAXI01 24-Jun ida Jun-16 ISAT08A 27-Jun idaaa Jun-16 ADHI01BCN1 3-Jul ida Jun-16 MAPI01BCN3 19-Sep idaa Jun-16 SMRA01CN2 10-Oct ida Jun-16 BNII01SBCN2 31-Oct AA(idn) Jun-16 SDRA01SB 29-Nov ida Jun-16 ISAT01BCN1 12-Dec idaaa Jun-16 BNLI01SBCN2 19-Dec idaa Jun-16 PNBN01SBCN1 20-Dec idaa Jun-16 AKRA01B 21-Dec idaa Jun-16 ADHI01BCN2 15-Mar ida Jun-16 ROTI01CN2 18-Mar idaa Jun-16 BBIA01C 1-Apr AAA(idn) Jun-16 AMRT01BCN2 8-May AA-(idn) Jun-16 SIISAT01CCN2 4-Jun idaaa Jun-16 PTHK01C 28-Jun ida Jun-16 TLKM02B 6-Jul idaaa

5 Appendix 4. Corporate Bonds Trading 13 Jun - 17 Jun 2016 (Cont d) Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration 17-Jun-16 MDLN01BCN1 7-Jul ida Jun-16 JMPD14JM10 12-Oct idaa Jun-16 SIEXCL01CCN1 2-Dec AAA(idn) Jun-16 SMRA02CN1 16-Dec ida Jun-16 BNGA02SB 23-Dec AA(idn) Jun-16 BEXI02CCN7 19-Feb idaaa Jun-16 TUFI02BCN2 1-Jun idaa Jun-16 BEXI03CCN1 8-Jun idaaa Jun-16 BSDE02ACN1 16-Jun idaa Jun-16 MAYA04SB 17-Dec idbbb Jun-16 BACA01SB 13-Jan idbbb

6 FIXED INCOME TEAM Director of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto ext Telp No Fax No Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet ext DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Credit Analyst Market Analyst Amir A. Dalimunthe Rifki Rizal ext ext Ayesha Ardelia Production & Database Management ext Eka Nuraini ext DEBT CAPITAL MARKET TEAM Telp No Fax No /25 Head of Debt Capital Market Breisga Nawangsidi ext Debt Sales & Brokerage Debt Trading & Investment Setyo H. Purnomo Romi Mulyadi ext ext Rina Rimawati D Indra Figrachanda rina@danareksa.com ext indraf@danareksa.com ext Putrika Mayadipta putrikam@danareksa.com ext Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy hernitada@danareksa.com ext Citra Isramij P. citra.isramij@danareksa.com ext Khalid Abdurrahman khalid.abdurrahman@danareksa.com ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. 6