The Two Side of a Coin
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- Susanti Tedja
- 6 tahun lalu
- Tontonan:
Transkripsi
1 WEEKLY REPORT 8 APRIL 214 Indonesia FCLT Rating S & P Moody s Fitch BB+ Baa3 BBB- Key Market Indicator as of 7-Apr-14 BI Rate 7.5% JCI 4,921 IDR Inflation (y-o-y)-mar % Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov t Bonds as of 2-Apr-14 IDR 1,72.3 bn Corp Bonds as of Mar-14 IDR bn Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds IDR tn Corporate Bonds IDR 2.25 tn Benchmark Yield as of 7-Apr-14 FR69 (5 year) 7.592% FR7 (1 year) 7.822% FR71 (15 year) 8.24% FR68 (2 year) 8.392% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM Government Bond Indices as of 7-Apr-14 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 7.98% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) Calendar of Event 9-Apr-14 Germany Current Account EUR (Survey : 18.B; Prior : 16.2B) 1-Apr-14 US Initial Jobless Claim (Survey : 32K; Prior : 326K) 1-Apr-14 China Imports& Exports Trade Balance Value (Survey : $1.8%; Prior : $-22.99B) The Two Side of a Coin There are still USD33.99 billion of outstanding Indonesia USD Government bonds (INDON) with a weighted average maturity of years and coupon of 6.34%. As of April 4, 214, the yield on INDON 1Y stood at 5.19%, or up 15bps from the previous week. The slightly higher yield was accompanied by an increase in Indonesia s Credit Default Swap from 25bps on March 28, 214 to 256bps at the end of the week. Exhibit 1. Yield on INDON 1Y & CDS 1Y Source : Bloomberg D E B T R E S E A R C H Obligasi Pemerintah berdenominasi USD (INDON) yang masih outstanding tercatat sebesar USD33,99 miliar dengan rata-rata tenor dan kupon masingmasing sebesar 12,18 tahun dan 6,34%. Sementara itu, yield INDON 1-tahun per 4 April 214 berada di level 5,19%, atau meningkat 15bps dari minggu sebelumnya. Peningkatan yield selama minggu lalu juga diikuti dengan meningkatnya Credit Default Swap Indonesia dari 25bps pada 28 Maret menjadi 256bps di akhir minggu. Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 INDON 1Y Lower Risk than in 4Q13 Besides the CDS, the yield spread on INDON over the US Treasury with a similar tenor also gives an indication of the required investor yield for INDON. This spread is a measure of the Sovereign Risk Premium that is demanded by investors to hold INDON rather than UST instruments which are the acknowledged safe haven for global investors. Last week, the 1-year sovereign risk premium increased by 11bps to 221bps at the end of the week. In 1Q14, the average 1-year sovereign risk premium reached 238bps, or down 4bps from 242bps in 4Q13. CDS 1Y (LHS) 16.% 14.% 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.% Risiko yang lebih rendah dari 4Q13 Selain CDS, yield spread INDON terhadap US Treasury dengan tenor yang sepadan juga mampu menggambarkan required yield investor untuk obligasi INDON. Spread tersebut mencerminkan Sovereign Risk Premium, atau premi resiko yang diminta investor untuk memegang INDON dibandingkan dengan instrumen UST yang merupakan safe haven bagi investor global. Sepanjang minggu lalu, sovereign risk premium 1 -tahun mengalami peningkatan 11bps menjadi 221bps di akhir minggu. Sementara itu, rata-rata sovereign risk selama 1Q14 sebesar 238bps, atau mengalami penurunan 4bps dari rata-rata di 4Q13 yang mencapai 242bps. Exhibit 2. Yield on INDON 1Y, US Treasury 1Y & Sovereign Risk Premium 1Y Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe (62 21) ext. 345 amirda@danareksa.com Rifki Rizal (62 21) ext. 344 rifkir@danareksa.com Please read important disclosure at the back of this report 16.% 14.% 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.% Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Sovereign Risk (RHS) INDON 1Y UST 1Y Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimates Bloomberg Ticker: DFMJ
2 7-11 APRIL 214 WEEKLY REPORT Risk anomaly In the period from 26 to 27, the average 1-year CDS and 1-year sovereign risk premium stood at 224bps and 181bps, respectively. Then, during the global crisis in 28-29, the average CDS increased to 392bps while the sovereign risk premium surged 24bps to 441bps. In the period from 21 to 1Q14 risk abated, with the average 1-year CDS and 1- year sovereign risk premium falling to 238bps and 189bps, respectively. Anomali Risiko Pada periode 26 hingga 27, rata-rata CDS 1-tahun dan sovereign risk premium 1-tahun masing-masing tercatat sebesar 224bps dan 181bps. Kemudian pada masa krisis global di tahun 28 29, rata-rata CDS meningkat menjadi 392bps sedangkan sovereign risk premium juga mengalami peningkatan 24bps menjadi 441bps. Resiko kembali turun di periode 21 hingga 1Q14, sehingga baik rata-rata CDS ataupun sovereign risk mengalami penurunan masing-masing menjadi 238bps dan 189bps. Exhibit 3. Credit Default Swap 1Y & Sovereign Risk Premium Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 CDS 1Y Sovereign Risk Premium 1Y Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimates The credit default swap and sovereign risk premium are closely related since they provide an indication of the risk premium that investors demand. As can be seen in Appendix 3, the 1-year CDS tends to be about 25 to 75 bps higher than the 1-year sovereign risk premium, but during times of crisis, like in the period from 3Q8 to 4Q9, the CDS tends to be around the same value or even lower than the sovereign risk premium. Credit default swap dan sovereign risk premium saling terkait karena merefleksikan risk premium yang diminta investor. Seperti dapat dilihat pada Apendiks 3, nilai CDS 1-tahun cenderung berada lebih tinggi 25 hingga 75 bps di atas sovereign risk premium 1-tahun, namun dalam kondisi krisis (3Q8 4Q9) nilai CDS cenderung sama bahkan lebih rendah dari sovereign risk premium. Exhibit 3. Scatterplot Credit Default Swap 1Y vs Sovereign Risk Premium 1Y Sovereign Risk Premium 1Y Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimates CDS 1Y 2
3 7-11 APRIL 214 WEEKLY REPORT Exhibit 1. Histogram of Credit Default Swap 1Y in 26-1Q ,35 1,87 1,139 1,191 1,243 More Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimates Exhibit 2. Histogram of Sovereign Risk Premium 1Y in 26-1Q ,25 1,72 More Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimates, Exhibit 3. Histogram of Spread CDS 1Y over Sovereign Risk Premium 1Y More Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimates, 3
4 7-11 APRIL 214 WEEKLY REPORT Appendix 4. Government Bonds Trading 1-4 April 214 Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Last Freq Vol Yield Tenor Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Class Duration Price 3-Apr-14 SPN Apr < 1yr - 3-Apr-14 SPN Apr < 1yr.1 4-Apr-14 SPN Jul , < 1yr.24 1-Apr-14 SPNS Jul < 1yr.31 3-Apr-14 SPN Jul < 1yr.31 4-Apr-14 SPN Sep < 1yr.43 4-Apr-14 SPN Oct < 1yr.5 4-Apr-14 FR26 15-Oct < 1yr.52 4-Apr-14 ORI8 15-Oct < 1yr.52 3-Apr-14 VR19 25-Dec < 1yr.71 1-Apr-14 SPN Feb < 1yr.83 3-Apr-14 FR27 15-Jun yr - 5yr Apr-14 IFR1 15-Aug yr - 5yr Apr-14 SR4 21-Sep yr - 5yr Apr-14 ORI9 15-Oct yr - 5yr Apr-14 SR5 27-Feb yr - 5yr Apr-14 VR22 25-Mar yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR3 15-May yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR55 15-Sep yr - 5yr Apr-14 ORI1 15-Oct yr - 5yr Apr-14 VR23 25-Oct yr - 5yr Apr-14 SR6 5-Mar , yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR6 15-Apr , yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR28 15-Jul yr - 5yr Apr-14 PBS1 15-Feb yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR66 15-May yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR48 15-Sep yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR69 15-Apr , yr - 1yr Apr-14 FR36 15-Sep yr - 1yr Apr-14 VR31 25-Jul yr - 1yr Apr-14 FR31 15-Nov yr - 1yr Apr-14 FR34 15-Jun yr - 1yr Apr-14 FR53 15-Jul yr - 1yr Apr-14 FR61 15-May yr - 1yr Apr-14 FR43 15-Jul yr - 1yr Apr-14 FR63 15-May yr - 1yr Apr-14 FR46 15-Jul yr - 1yr Apr-14 FR7 15-Mar , yr - 1yr Apr-14 FR44 15-Sep > 1yr Apr-14 FR4 15-Sep > 1yr Apr-14 FR56 15-Sep > 1yr Apr-14 FR59 15-May > 1yr Apr-14 FR42 15-Jul > 1yr Apr-14 FR47 15-Feb > 1yr Apr-14 FR64 15-May > 1yr Apr-14 FR71 15-Mar , > 1yr Apr-14 IFR6 15-Mar > 1yr Sumber: Danareksa, BEI 4
5 7-11 APRIL 214 WEEKLY REPORT Appendix 5. Government Bonds Trading 1-4 April 214 (cont d) Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Last Freq Vol Yield Tenor Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Class Duration Price 2-Apr-14 FR52 15-Aug > 1yr Apr-14 FR54 15-Jul > 1yr Apr-14 FR58 15-Jun , > 1yr Apr-14 FR65 15-May > 1yr Apr-14 FR68 15-Mar , > 1yr Apr-14 PBS4 15-Feb > 1yr Apr-14 FR45 15-May > 1yr Apr-14 FR5 15-Jul > 1yr Apr-14 FR57 15-May > 1yr Apr-14 FR62 15-Apr > 1yr Apr-14 FR67 15-Feb > 1yr Sumber: Danareksa, BEI 5
6 7-11 APRIL 214 WEEKLY REPORT Appendix 6. Corporate Bonds Trading 1-4 April 214 Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration Price 2-Apr-14 FIFA1BCN1 2-Apr idaa Apr-14 ADMF1BCN2 4-May idaa Apr-14 IMFI1ACN2 18-May ida Apr-14 ADMF5C 27-May idaa Apr-14 TAFS3A 27-May AAA(idn) Apr-14 ISAT5A 29-May idaa Apr-14 BTPN1ACN1 28-Jun AA-(idn) Apr-14 TRAC3B 5-Jul ida Apr-14 APLN1A 25-Aug ida Apr-14 ADMF4E 29-Oct idaa Apr-14 CFIN3C 8-Nov ida Apr-14 SIMP1 1-Dec AA Apr-14 ADMF1BCN1 16-Dec idaa Apr-14 SIKMAPI1B 16-Dec A Apr-14 BBRI2 22-Dec AA Apr-14 TBIG1ACN1 22-Dec AA-(idn) Apr-14 BNGA1A 23-Dec idaaa Apr-14 SANF2C 2-Jan idaa Apr-14 BFIN1BCN2 19-Feb A+(idn) Apr-14 ASDF1BCN1 21-Feb idaa Apr-14 ASDF12D 25-Feb idaa Apr-14 AIRJ1C 13-Mar A(idn) Apr-14 FIFA1ACN3 24-Mar idaa Apr-14 BCAF1ACN3 7-Apr idaaa Apr-14 ISAT6B 9-Apr idaa Apr-14 BCAF1CCN1 9-May idaa+/aa+(idn) Apr-14 TUFI6D 19-May ida Apr-14 BIIF1B 7-Jun AA+(idn) Apr-14 IMFI4C 9-Jun ida Apr-14 BCAF4E 22-Jun idaa Apr-14 PPLN12A 8-Jul idaa Apr-14 BTPN1ACN2 3-Aug AA-(idn) Apr-14 BNGA1ACN2 2-Nov idaaa Apr-14 BTPN3B 22-Dec AA-(idn) Apr-14 BJBR7B 9-Feb idaa Apr-14 NISP1CCN1 19-Feb idaaa/aaa(idn) Apr-14 ADMF2CCN1 1-Mar idaa Apr-14 IMFI1CCN1 11-May ida Apr-14 BIIF2A 19-Jun AA+ (idn) Apr-14 JMPD12Q 6-Jul idaa Apr-14 APLN1B 25-Aug ida Apr-14 BBTN12 19-Sep idaa Apr-14 ASDF2BCN2 26-Nov idaa+/aaa(idn) Apr-14 BNII1BCN1 6-Dec AAA(idn) Apr-14 JPFA1CN1 12-Jan ida Apr-14 TAFS1BCN1 13-Feb AAA(idn) Apr-14 BFIN2CCN1 7-Mar ida Apr-14 FIFA1BCN3 14-Mar idaa Apr-14 BCAF1BCN3 27-Mar idaaa Apr-14 CTRR1A 2-Apr A(idn) Sumber: Danareksa, BEI 6
7 7-11 APRIL 214 WEEKLY REPORT Appendix 7. Corporate Bonds Trading 1-4 April 214 (cont d) Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration Price 4-Apr-14 ASDF2BCN3 4-Apr AAA(Idn) Apr-14 SMFP1CCN2 25-Apr AA(idn) Apr-14 INDF6 31-May idaa Apr-14 JMPD13R 21-Jun idaa Apr-14 ADHISM1CN1 3-Jul ida(sy) Apr-14 PPLN9A 1-Jul idaa Apr-14 SIKPPLN1 1-Jul idaa+(sy) Apr-14 BNGA1BCN1 3-Oct IdAAA/AAA(idn) Apr-14 SSIA1B 6-Nov ida Apr-14 PNBN4SB 9-Nov idaa-/a+(idn) Apr-14 PNBN4SB 9-Nov idaa-/a+(idn) Apr-14 PJAA2B 27-Dec idaa Apr-14 BSBR1SB 13-Jan ida Apr-14 BJBR7C 9-Feb idaa Apr-14 ADHISM1CN2 15-Mar ida(sy) Apr-14 PTPP1CN1 19-Mar ida Apr-14 SIAISA1 5-Apr ida-(sy) Apr-14 AISA1 5-Apr ida Apr-14 APLN1CN1 27-Jun ida Apr-14 BNLI2SB 28-Jun idaa Apr-14 GIAA1CN1 5-Jul A(idn) Apr-14 BNII1SBCN1 6-Dec AA-(idn) Apr-14 PPLN1ACN2 1-Dec idaaa Apr-14 SMRA1CN1 11-Dec ida Apr-14 SISMRA1CN1 11-Dec ida+(sy) Apr-14 CTRR1B 2-Apr A(idn) Apr-14 BNLI1SBCN1 15-Jun idaa Apr-14 ISAT8A 27-Jun idaa Apr-14 PNBN1SBCN1 2-Dec idaa Apr-14 SMFP2CCN1 27-Dec idaa Apr-14 PPLN11B 12-Jan idaa Apr-14 BBTN14 11-Jun idaa Apr-14 PTHK1C 28-Jun ida Apr-14 SIPPLN1CN1 5-Jul idaaa Apr-14 PPLN9B 1-Jul idaa Sumber: Danareksa, BEI 7
8 7-11 APRIL 214 WEEKLY REPORT RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet ext. 34 Credit Analyst Production & Database Management Amir A. Dalimunthe Eka Nuraini ext. 345 ext. 347 Ayesha Ardelia ext. 346 Market Analyst Melissa Hartono Rifki Rizal ext. 342 ext. 344 Debt Capital Market Division Debt Capital Market Div. (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) /25 Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto ext. 32 Debt Sales & Brokerage (62 21) Debt Trading & Investment Rina Rimawati D Romi Mulyadi rina@danareksa.com ext romi@danareksa.com ext Agung Suprihanto agungs@danareksa.com ext Putrika Mayadipta putrikam@danareksa.com ext Ariningtyas W. Agustina ariningtyasw@danareksa.com ext Product & Retail Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy Setyo H. Purnomo hernitada@danareksa.com ext setyohp@danareksa.com ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice 8
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