Indonesia Equity Research

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1 Buy Tp.13,732 PT.Bank Tbk (BMRI) Preparing For Next Transformation to be Top Bank In ASEAN 2020 Stock Highlight : Company History Established Date Listing Date 2-Oct Jul-03 Indonesia Equity Research Tahun 2014 Bank berhasil mencapai stage ke 3 dari 4 stages yang dicanangkan oleh Bank sejak tahun Stages ke 3 mengharuskan Bank mempuyai Market Kapitalisasi Rp.225 triliun, Market shares dari sisi pendapatan sebesar 14%-16%, ROE > 25% dan NPL< 4%. Tahun 2014 pendapatan Bank sebesar Rp.56,8 Triliun dengan net interest income (pendapatan dari kredit/transaksi obligasi) Rp.41,8T, dan pendapatan dari fee seperti fee transaksi, fee kredit sebesar Rp.15,06 T. Dan laba bersih Bank tahun 2014 sebesar Rp. 21,482 T. Dengan NIM 2014 menjadi 5,97%. Market Cap per 3 Maret 2015 sebesar Rp.277,6T. Bank dengan focus mencapai target Bank terkemuka di ASEAN terus melakukan upaya peningkatan ROE dan NIM. Tahun 2014 ROE BMRI masih dilevel 20,95%. Bank terus berupaya meningkatkan kinerja untuk mencapai target ROE diatas 25% per tahun. Jika dilihat dari track record kinerja Bank sejak 2009 sd 2014 terlihat Net Interest Margin NIM dari level 5% di 2009 di 2014 menjadi 5,9%. Kenaikan marjin ini tidak terlepas dari strategi Bank untuk meningkatkan pendapatan dari Retail Banking, langkah yang dilakukan antara lain dengan meningkatkan Jaringan kantor cabang, EDC, ATM dan Internet Banking, selain pengembangan pasar kredit ritel. Stock Date Ticker BMRI Shares Price (3/3/2015) 11,900 Shares Outstanding (M) 23,333 Market Cap (M.IDR) 277,662,700 High /Low (52 weeks) 12,200/9000 Shareholder information Government RI 6 Public 4 Key Indicator in 2nd Transformation Remain Strong 25.00% 24.00% 23.00% % % 20,000 15, % 24.40% ROE % ROE 22.23% 20.95% EAT Rp.(Miliar) EAT Rp.(Miliar) 12,245 15,504 18,204 19,872 Pengembangan retail banking terlihat dari penghasilan yang dikontribusi retail bisnis kepada Bank. Pada tahun 2009 pendapatan fee dari kredit ritel, fee dari deposit retail, serta transaksi fee dari sektor ritel terus meningkat. Dari Rp.10,5 T ditahun 2009 menjadi Rp.30,9 Triliun ditahun ,000 5,000 7,155 9,218 Ekspansi kredit ritail dan terus meningkatkan jaringan untuk menjadi Transactional Banking, ikuti dengan kemampuan Bank menurunkan resiko bisnis membuat Bank mandiri berhasil menurunkan NPL nya hingga dilevel dibawah 2% NPL Gross, dan pencadangan NPL Bank sudah berada di 150% dari NPL. Total Loan Rp.(Miliar) Total Loan Rp.(Miliar) 472, , , , , ,973 Selain ekspansi kepada sektor yang memberikan yield lebih tinggi, Bank juga tetap focus meningkatkan porsi CASA dalam total deposit perseroan. Rata-rata diatas 55% total CASA dibandingkan total deposit. Tahun 2014 total CASA sebesar 59,8% dari total deposit. Research Analyst : Muhammad Reza m.reza@trust.co.id representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liabilities as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue there off. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by PT.Trust Securities or any other person to enter info any agreement with regards to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investment you should make your own independent assessment and seek your professional financial and legal advice. Page 1

2 Dari data industri perbankan yang kami olah per September 2014, kinerja Bank relative diatas rata-rata performance bank di Indonesia. Dari total kredit yang didistribusikan posisi kredit Bank pada urutan no 2 setelah Bank BRI. Berdasarkan pertumbuhan kredit sepanjang tahun 2014 berada di urutan no 3, dengan 8,4%. Posisi LDR total Loan dengan Deposit Ratio, Ratio Bank sebesar 83,4%, Bank BCA sebesar 75,9% dan BRI 85,3%. Hal ini indikasikan bahwa dari sisi Funding Bank juga cukup kuat, dengan penambahan cabang, outlet, ATM dan Internet Banking membuat posisi CASA per total Deposit BMRI berada diposisi ke 4 dengan ratio 62,8%, sementara posisi pertama masih dipegang oleh dengan rasio 76,2%. 700,000 CASA Rp.Miliar 636,382 Total Deposit Rp.Miliar 556, , , , , , , , , , ,958 Dengan besar nya rasio CASA dengan Total Deposit membuat Cost of Fund Bank berada di level no 3 terendah yakni sebesar 3,5% diatas yang cost of fundnya 3,2% dan Bank BCA dilevel 2,6%. NPL Gross Bank juga menempati posisi ketiga dari NPL terendah. NPL terendah dipegang oleh BCA dengan NPL 0,7%, NPL Gross dari Bank BNI 46 sebesar 1,4% dan Bank 1,7%. Tahun 2015 dengan kinerja dan fundamental yang solid, Manajemen mentargetkan kredit sebesar 15%-17%. Dengan Low Cost Deposit sebesar Rp.435 Triliun. Dengan NIM target > 6,05%, dengan Gross NPL dilevel 2%. Penambahan ATM 2500 unit, Penambahan EDC baru 40,000 unit, Penambahan Micro Outlet 300 unit dan penambahan cabang 50 unit. Tahun 2015 berdasarkan asumsi tingkat pertumbuhan kredit tahun 2014 dan proyeksi ekonomi Indonesia tahun Untuk pertumbuhan kredit kami proyeksikan tahun 2015 sebesar 11,5%, dengan NIM tahun 2015 sebesar 6,18%. Dengan total CASA Rp.410 Triliun dengan total deposit tahun 2015 sebesar Rp.647 Triliun. Dengan total gross loan sebesar Rp.583. Valuation Dengan kinerja historis dari Bank yang terus membaik, serta proyeksi yang selalu dapat dicapai oleh manajemen kami melihat target yang di proyeksikan manajemen Bank tahun 2015 sebagian besar kami yakin dapat dicapai. Berdasarkan asumsi-asumsi besaran makro dan data historis emiten ini, kami menggunakan metode Gordon Growth Model dengan ROE 19,5% dan Deviden Payout Ratio 50% harga wajar BMRI tahun 2015 sebesar Rp.13,957/saham atau masih berpotensi naik sebesar 17,29%. Menggunakan metode DDM (Dividend Discount Model) dengan menggunakan Risk Free Rate 7,5% dan Perpetuity Growyh 8,75% harga wajar Bank sebesar Rp.13,507/ saham. Atau masih berpotensi naik sebesar 13,51% dari harga Rp.11,900/saham. Kami memadukan dua pendekatan ini dengan merata-ratakan hasil dari valuasi diatas menjadi Rp.13,732/saham. masih memberikan potensi kenaikan sebesar 15,39%. 3.00% 2.50% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 6.20% 5.80% 5.60% 5.40% 5.20% 5.00% 4.80% 4.60% 4.40% 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 NPL % NPL % NIM % NIM % Fee Income Rev From Deposit Rev From Loan 9,299 9,823 9,011 13,884 6,283 4,672 8,773 3,172 5,199 5,297 4,478 4,453 2,971 4,065 4,874 5,771 6,763 7,788 representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liabilities as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue there off. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by PT.Trust Securities or any other person to enter info any agreement with regards to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investment you should make your own independent assessment and seek your professional financial and legal advice. Page 2

3 Bank dibandingkan dengan Industry Total Loans Rp.(Bn) Loan Growth (%) Loan To Deposit Ratio (%) 464, , , , ,359 Cimb 129, , , ,324 97,038 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 10% 9.50% 8.40% 7.80% 6.70% 5.90% 1.60% 0.50% % 94.50% 91.30% 91.10% 90.50% 88.10% 85.70% 85.30% 84.30% 75.90% Total Asset Rp. Bn NPL Ratio (Gross) % Total Deposit Rp.bn 800, , , , , , , , , , , % 4.00% 3.00% 1.00% 4.90% 3.40% 2.60% 2.50% 2.20% 1.90% 1.70% 1.40% 0.70% 95, , , , , , , , , ,272 Low Cost Deposit Ratio % Cost Of Funds P.A % % 39.30% 43.10% 45.60% 48.20% 53.30% 62.80% 63.00% 64.30% 76.20% 8.00% 4.00% 2.60% 3.20% 3.50% 3.80% 5.40% 5.70% 6.30% 6.80% 7.10% Valuation VALUATION - GORDON GROWTH 2015E Equity 119,018 Loan Quality adjustments : Bank Only Provision +/+ 2,369 NPL -/- (12,832) Category 2 Loan -/- (50%) - IBRA Loan Total Loan Outstanding -/- - Provision -/- - Adjusted Equity (Rp. Billion) 108,555 No.of Share (million) 23,333 BVPS 5,100.8 adj BVPS 4,652.4 Gordon Growth Model a. Normalized ROE 19.5% b. Dividend Payout ratio 50.0% c. Normalized growth ( a x (1-b) ) 9.8% d. Risk Free rate (5 year govt bond yield) 7.50% e. Equity Risk Premium 5.0% f. Assigned Beta 1.1 g. Required rate of Return (discount Rate) ( d + [e x f] ) 13.0% Int Value to FY 2015F Adjusted Book Value (x) ( [a - c] : [g - c] ) 3.00 Weighted Average Cost of Capital 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Cost of Debt (Kd) 3.16% 3.20% 3.24% 3.24% 3.24% 4.32% Interest exp (29,239) (32,608) (36,317) (39,856) (43,870) (48,335) Interest Bearing Liabilities 694, , , ,794 1,016,174 1,117,791 Tax rate 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 0% Cost of Equity (Ke) Equity 119, , , , , ,390 Assumed risk free rate (Rf) 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% Beta Equity Premium 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% WACC 4.45% 4.55% 4.65% 4.73% 4.80% 5.74% VALUATION - DIVIDEND DISCOUNT Assumed Perpetuity Growth 8.75% 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Dividend Per Share (Rp) Perpetuity value (Rp) 20,658 Discount rate 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% Year Discount factor PV of Dividend & Terminal Value, Rp ,035 Intrinsic Value (Rp. per share): 13,957 Current Price (Rp. per share): 11,900 Upside Potential: 17.29% Intrinsic Value (Rp. per Share) 13,507 Current Price (Rp. per Share) 11,900 Upside Potential: 13.51% representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liabilities as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue there off. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by PT.Trust Securities or any other person to enter info any agreement with regards to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investment you should make your own independent assessment and seek your professional financial and legal advice. Page 3

4 Balance Sheet, Profit & Loss, Ratio INCOME STATEMENT Dec F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Interest income 42,550 50,209 62,638 79,522 92, , , ,194 Interest expense (15,020) (16,399) (23,506) (29,239) (32,608) (36,317) (39,856) (43,870) Net interest income 27,531 33,809 39,132 50,283 60,005 69,872 81,965 90,324 growth (%) 54.3% 22.8% 15.7% 28.5% 19.3% 16.4% 17.3% 10.2% Non interest income 11,008 12,276 12,220 12,558 14,631 17,100 20,044 23,564 Total operating income 38,538 46,086 51,352 62,652 72,667 82,939 95, ,632 growth (%) 15% 19.6% 11.4% 22.0% 16.0% 14.1% 15.2% 9.5% G&A expenses (8,046) (9,431) (10,848) (11,904) (13,807) (15,758) (17,203) (18,834) Personnel expenses (8,254) (9,898) (11,448) (13,157) (14,533) (15,551) (16,247) (17,787) Other operating expenses (2,613) (3,204) (3,078) (3,759) (4,360) (4,976) (5,734) (6,278) Total operating exp (18,913) (22,534) (25,374) (28,820) (32,700) (36,286) (39,184) (42,899) growth (%) 14% 19.1% 12.6% 13.6% 13.5% 11.0% 8.0% 9.5% Pre provision opr profit 19,625 23,552 25,978 33,832 39,967 46,653 56,386 61,733 Provisions (2,369) (4,368) (4,210) (3,819) (4,205) Profit before tax 20,504 24,062 26,008 31,463 35,598 42,443 52,567 57,528 growth (%) 19% 17.4% 8.1% 21.0% 13.1% 19.2% 23.9% 9.4% Taxes (4,641) (5,232) (5,353) (7,866) (8,900) (10,611) (13,142) (14,382) Minority interest&others 393 (834) 828 Net Profit 16,257 17,996 21,483 23,597 26,699 31,832 39,425 43,146 growth (%) 15% 10.7% 19.4% 9.8% 13.1% 19.2% 23.9% 9.4% BALANCE SHEET As at Dec F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Assets Cash 15,482 19,052 20,705 23,514 26,335 28,969 31,866 35,052 Placement at BI 38,272 43,904 50,599 56,433 63,205 69,525 76,477 84,125 Due from Other bank 57,884 59,150 70,101 77,595 86,906 95, , ,672 Mkt. securities 20,324 26,803 40,465 42,324 47,403 52,144 57,358 63,094 Gross loan 384, , , , , , , ,157 Loan provision (14,011) (16,536) (17,707) (16,752) (19,039) (23,135) (24,386) (30,458) Net loan 370, , , , , , , ,699 Government bond 79,072 82,227 86,154 94, , , , ,167 Fixed assets 7,003 7,646 8,929 9,902 11,064 12,440 13,020 13,738 Others 47,007 43,678 72,637 70,122 78,838 62,515 78,966 74,399 Total Assets 635, , , ,544 1,053,409 1,158,750 1,274,625 1,402,087 Liabilities Demand deposits 113, , , , , , , ,123 Saving deposits 183, , , , , , , ,381 Time deposits 144, , , , , , , ,676 Borrowings&Sub debt 16,747 20,463 27,974 34,824 43,164 52,774 63,823 76,495 Others 84, , , , , , , ,915 Minority 1,175 1,371 2,187 Equity 74,580 87, , , , , , ,998 Total liability & Equity 635, , , ,544 1,053,409 1,158,750 1,274,625 1,402,087 BREAKDOWN As at Dec 31 Earning assets bank F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F Gross loans 384, , , , , , , ,157 Government bonds 79,072 82,227 86,154 94, , , , ,167 Mkt.securities&SBI 58,596 70,707 91,064 98, , , , ,219 Others earning assets 52,608 42,388 74,432 76,157 85,296 67,696 85,064 76,889 Total earning assets 574, , , , ,494 1,049,944 1,154,938 1,270,432 % compositon Gross loans Government bonds Others earning assets Third party funding Demand deposits 113, , , , , , , ,123 Saving deposits 183, , , , , , , ,381 Time deposits 144, , , , , , , ,676 Total deposits 442, , , , , , , ,180 % composition Demand deposits Saving deposits Time deposits The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of PT.Trust Securities and/or its affiliated companies and /or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liabilities as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue there off. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by PT.Trust Securities or any other person to enter info any agreement with regards to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investment you should make your own independent assessment and seek your professional financial and legal advice. Page 4

5 Research Team Muhammad Reza Head Of Research Sector Coverage : Banking, F & B, Mining. Telp : Ext.431 m.reza@trust.co.id Urip Mulyo Santoso Research Support Telp : Ext.411 urip@trust.co.id Lailan Natasya Putri Research Analyst Sector Coverage : Telecomunication, Property, Cement Telp : Ext.364 Danang Narasworo Junior Research Analyst Sector Coverage : Pharmaceutical, Construction Telp : Ext.443 danang@trust.co.id Puspa Rini Senior Equity Sales Telp : ext.128 puspa@trust.co.id Wayan Sudiartha Branch Manager Pluit Telp : Fax : pluit@trust.co.id Dewi (Aling) Branch Manager Medan Telp : Fax : medan@trust.co.id Nesya Kharismawati Senior Institusional Equity Sales Telp : Ext.166 nesya@trust.co.id The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of PT.Trust Securities and/or its affiliated companies and /or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liabilities as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue there off. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by PT.Trust Securities or any other person to enter info any agreement with regards to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investment you should make your own independent assessment and seek your professional financial and legal advice. Page 5