BI Rate : Here to Stay

Transkripsi

1 WEEKLY REPORT 9-13 DECEMBER 2013 Indonesia FCLT Rating S & P Moody's Fitch BB+ Baa3 BBB- Key Market Indicators as of 0 BI Rate 7.50% JCI Index 4,214 IDR 11,974 Inflation(y-o-y) - Nov % Domestic Bonds Outstanding as of 0 Government Bonds IDR tn Corporate Bonds IDR tn Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds Corporate Bonds IDR 37.34tn IDR 2.24tn Benchmark Yield as of 0 FR0066 (5 year) 8.183% FR0063 (10 year) 8.706% FR0064 (15 year) 9.156% FR0065 (20 year) 9.218% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM Government Bonds Indices as of 0 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 8.80% Total Return YTD BI Rate : Here to Stay The weakening trend of the rupiah is the main reason why foreign and local investors are taking a cautious stance on the Indonesian bonds market. From the end of 2012 until December 6, 2013, the rupiah lost % of its value, depreciating to IDR11,964 per US$ from IDR9,795 per US$. So far in 2013, the average rupiah/us$ exchange rate stands at IDR10,347 US$. This compares to an average rate of IDR8,772 per US$ in 2011 and IDR9,386 per US$ in To shore up the value of the rupiah, Bank Indonesia mayusethereverserepoorthebirateto reduce the money supply in circulation. This seems evident last week as the outstanding reverse repo showed a significant increase (up IDR27.1 trillion to IDR113.9 trillion) while domestic bank SUN holdings increased by IDR24.97 trillion to IDR381.3 trillion in the week up to 4 December. With BI using the reverse repo to support the rupiah, the BI rate can be expected to stay at 7.5% for the rest of the 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 9, ,166 9, Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Tren pelemahan Rupiah yang terus berlanjut masih menjadi fokus utama para investor asing ataupun lokal untuk berhati-hati dalam berinvestasi di pasar Obligasi. Dari akhir tahun 2012 hingga 6 Desember 2013, Rupiah telah mengalami depresiasi sebesar 22,17%, atau meningkat dari Rp9,795 per US$ menjadi Rp per US$. Selain itu, rata-rata nilai tukar Rupiah pada tahun 2013 mencapai Rp US$, sedangkan rata-rata untuk tahun 2011 dan 2012 masing-masing sebesar Rp8.772 per US$ dan Rp9.386 per US$. Bank Indonesia dapat menggunakan Reverse Repo atau BI rate untuk mengurangi jumlah uang yang beredar. Hal tersebut dapat dilihat dari peningkatan outstanding reverse repo yang signifikan selama minggu lalu yaitu sebesar Rp27,1 triliun dan meningkatnya kepemilikan domestik bank sebesar Rp24,97 triliun menjadi Rp381,3 triliun dari tanggal 29 November hingga 4 Desember BI memilih menggunakan Reverse Repo sebagai instrumen pengendalian Rupiah, oleh sebab itu BI rate diperkirakan tetap di 7,5% hingga akhir tahun. Average Rupiah ,675 10, , , ,386 10, Calendar of Event 12-Dec-13 US Initial Jobless Claim (Survey : 320K Prior : 298K) 12-Dec-13 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate (Survey : 7.5%; Prior : 7.5%) 16-Dec-13 Germany Manufacturing PMI Markit Survey (Survey : NA; Prior : 52.7K) Bank Indonesia (incl. RR) & Domestic Bank (excl. RR) Ownership Bank Indonesia (incl. RR) Domestic Bank (excl. RR BI) Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec IDR Trillion Analysts Rifki Rizal ext 3404 rifkir@danareksa.com Amir A. Dalimunthe ext.3405 amirda@danareksa.com Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate IDR Trillion Monthly Money Supply & Average Reverse Repo Outstanding Money Supply Avg Monthly Reverse Repo IDR Trillion Please read important disclosure at the back of this report 30-Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov-13 Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate D E B T RESEARCH

2 MACROECONOMICS CONDITION Instrument of Tightening The government bonds yield index rose 6bps from 8.72% to 8.78% at the end of last week. Meanwhile, Indonesia s 5-year Credit default swaps (CDS) stood at 225bps as of 6 December, down 10 bps over the week, while Brazil s 5-year CDS moved in line with Turkey s 5-year CDS. Bank Indonesia s holdings of government bonds dropped to IDR3.3 trillion as of December 4, 2013, while foreign holdings rose IDR1.72 trillion to IDR325.9 trillion from IDR324.2 trillion. The SUN holdings of domestic banks were recorded at IDR381.2 trillion. Based on this data, it appears that Bank Indonesia reduced money supply by making use of the reverse repo; or, in other words, BI is tightening. Indeks yield obligasi Pemerintah meningkat 6bps dari 8,72% menjadi 8,78% pada akhir minggu lalu. Credit default swap (CDS) 5-tahun Indonesia per tanggal 6 Desember sebesar 225bps, turun 10 bps dari minggu sebelumnya. Sedangkan CDS 5-tahun Brazil bergerak beriringan dengan CDS 5-tahun Turki sejak akhir November Kepemilikan Bank Indonesia dalam obligasi Pemerintah per 4 Desember 2013 turun menjadi Rp3,3 triliun, sementara itu kepemilikan asing naik Rp1,72 triliun dari Rp324,2 triliun menjadi Rp325,9 triliun. Di sisi lain, kepemilikan domestik bank akhir minggu lalu mencapai Rp381,2 triliun. Berdasarkan data tersebut, terlihat bahwa BI menarik uang yang beredar dengan menggunakan Reverse Repo, ataudengankatalainbi melakukan kebijakan pengetatan moneter. Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg Yield Index 11-Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep-13 2-Oct-13 7-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct-13 4-Nov-13 8-Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov-13 4-Dec-13 Yield Index (LHS) Inflation Gov't Bonds Ownership 9.00% 8.75% 8.50% 8.25% 8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00% 6.75% BI Rate Inflation Forecast 26-Aug Aug-13 5-Sep Sep Sep-13 Source: Bloomberg 23-Sep Sep-13 3-Oct-13 CDS 5-Year (bps) 9-Oct Oct Oct Oct-13 4-Nov Nov Nov-13 Rupiah closed at Rp11,964 per USD 21-Nov Nov-13 3-Dec Indonesia Philipinnes Brazil Turkey IDR trillion Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep-13 3-Oct-13 8-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct-13 6-Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov-13 2-Dec RR-BI (RHS) BI (RHS) Domestic Bank Foreign Investors IDR trillion 16-Sep Sep Sep Sep-13 2-Oct-13 7-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct-13 4-Nov-13 8-Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov-13 4-Dec-13 12,050 11,950 11,850 11,750 11,650 11,550 11,450 11,350 11,250 11,150 11,050 10,950 10,850 10,750 10,650 Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Bloomberg Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor Corporate Bonds Trading by Sector Infrastructure 19.92% Banking 8.72% IDR trillion Property & Construction 26.13% Others 4.49% Mining Oil & Natural Gas 3.08% Term to Maturity Financial Company 37.66% Source: IDX Process Data Source: IDX Process Data 2

3 GOVERNMENT BONDS REVIEW Greater pressure on short tenor The uptrend in government bond yields eased for both mid and long tenors (this is reflected in the fact that the change in the yield curve was greater for short tenors than it was for either mid or long tenors). Note that the average yield increase for short tenors was 0.21%, whereas for medium and long tenors the figures were 0.026% and 0.008%, respectively. Last week s total trading in government bonds reached IDR37.36 trillion, up by IDR61.8 billion from the previous week. Total trading in corporate bonds, by comparison, reached IDR2.24 trillion, up from IDR708 billion the previous week. Last week s government bonds trading was dominated by trading in long tenors (40.58%), while the trading in corporate bonds was dominated by 2-year tenors (amounting to Rp716 billion). Tren peningkatan yield obligasi melambat untuk tenor panjang, hal tersebut tercermin dari perubahan yield curve yang tertekan lebih dalam untuk tenor pendek. Rata-rata peningkatan untuk tenor pendek sebesar 0,21%, sedangkan untuk tenor menengah dan panjang masing-masing sebesar 0,026% dan 0,008%. Total perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah minggu lalu mencapai Rp37,36 triliun, naik Rp61,8 miliar dari minggu sebelumnya yang mencapai Rp37,28 triliun. Sementara itu, total perdagangan obligasi koporasi minggu lalu sebesar Rp2,24 triliun, naik Rp708 miliar dari minggu lalu. Perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah minggu lalu didominasi oleh tenor panjang sebesar 40,58%, sedangkan perdagangan obligasi korporasi didominasi oleh tenor 2-tahun sebesar Rp716 miliar. 3.6% 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 0.9% Spread INDON 10 year Over UST 10 year 30-Nov Dec-12 9-Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr-13 9-May May Jun-13 8-Jul Jul Aug-13 6-Sep Sep Oct-13 5-Nov Nov-13 Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Gov't Bonds Benchmark Series Yield 6.6% 6.1% 5.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.1% Risk Premium 10Y (LHS) UST 10Y INDON 10Y 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% Spread IDR Gov't Bond 10 year over INDON 10 year 30-Nov Dec-12 5-Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar-13 5-Apr Apr May May Jun-13 4-Jul Jul-13 9-Aug Aug Sep-13 2-Oct Oct-13 7-Nov Nov-13 Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Daily Trading Volume 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Currency Risk Premium 10Y (LHS) INDON 10Y SUN 10Y FR0066-5Y FR Y FR Y FR Y 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Govt Short Govt Med Govt Long Corp IDR trillion 17-Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar-13 3-Apr Apr May-13 3-Jun Jun Jul-13 1-Aug Aug Sep-13 7-Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov-13 2-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 Source: Bloomberg Source: IDX processed data Yield Curve Comparison as of 29November 2013 Yield Curve Change from 29 November to 6 December % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 8.28% 4.19% 1.50% 8.84% 9.13% 9.27% 9.39% 5.74% 2.86% 6.29% 6.55% 6.74% 3.24% 3.61% 3.88% Term to Maturity UST YC GoI USD Yield Curve GoI IDR Yield Curve 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% Term to Maturity Source: Danareksa Estimate Source: Danareksa Estimate 3

4 APPENDICES Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Tenor Modified Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Freq Yield Date Price Bn) Class Duration 5-Dec-13 SPN Dec < 1yr Dec-13 FR Dec < 1yr Dec-13 SPN Jan < 1yr Dec-13 SPNS Jan < 1yr Dec-13 SPN Feb < 1yr Dec-13 SR Feb < 1yr Dec-13 SPNS Mar < 1yr Dec-13 SPN Mar < 1yr Dec-13 SPN May < 1yr Dec-13 FR May < 1yr Dec-13 SPNS May < 1yr Dec-13 SPN Jul < 1yr Dec-13 SPN Jul < 1yr Dec-13 SPN Oct < 1yr Dec-13 ORI Oct < 1yr Dec-13 FR Oct < 1yr Dec-13 VR Apr , yr - 5yr Dec-13 FR Jun yr - 5yr Dec-13 IFR Aug yr - 5yr Dec-13 SR Sep yr - 5yr Dec-13 ORI Oct yr - 5yr Dec-13 VR Nov yr - 5yr Dec-13 SR Feb yr - 5yr Dec-13 FR May yr - 5yr Dec-13 FR Sep yr - 5yr Dec-13 ORI Oct , yr - 5yr Dec-13 VR Oct yr - 5yr Dec-13 FR Apr yr - 5yr Dec-13 FR Jul yr - 5yr Dec-13 FR May , yr - 5yr Dec-13 FR Jul yr - 5yr Dec-13 IFR Aug yr - 5yr Dec-13 FR Aug yr - 5yr Dec-13 FR Sep yr - 5yr Dec-13 FR Apr , yr - 10yr Dec-13 FR Sep yr - 10yr Dec-13 FR Nov yr - 10yr Dec-13 FR Jun yr - 10yr Dec-13 FR Jul yr - 10yr Dec-13 FR May yr - 10yr Dec-13 FR Jun yr - 10yr Dec-13 FR Jul yr - 10yr Dec-13 FR May , yr - 10yr Dec-13 FR Jul yr - 10yr Dec-13 FR Mar , > 10yr Dec-13 FR Sep > 10yr Dec-13 FR Sep > 10yr Dec-13 FR Sep > 10yr Dec-13 FR May > 10yr Dec-13 FR Jul > 10yr Dec-13 FR Feb > 10yr Dec-13 FR May , > 10yr Dec-13 FR Mar , > 10yr Dec-13 FR Aug > 10yr Dec-13 FR Jul > 10yr Dec-13 FR Jun , > 10yr Dec-13 FR May , > 10yr Dec-13 FR Mar , > 10yr Dec-13 FR May > 10yr Dec-13 FR Jul > 10yr Source: Danareksa, BEI Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 2 December - 6 December

5 APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 2 December - 6 December 2013 (Cont'd) Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Tenor Modified Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Freq Yield Date Price Bn) Class Duration 6-Dec-13 FR Apr > 10yr Dec-13 PBS Apr > 10yr Source: Danareksa, BEI 5

6 APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 2 December - 6 December 2013 Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Price Bn) Yield 3-Dec-13 ADMF01ACN1 16-Dec idaa Dec-13 BIMF01A 14-Jan [Idr]BBB Dec-13 SANF02B 20-Jan idaa Dec-13 SANF01C 25-Jan ida Dec-13 NISP01ACN1 1-Mar idaaa/aaa(idn) Dec-13 ASDF01ACN3 4-Mar idaa Dec-13 VRNA01C 18-Mar id A Dec-13 SMFP02ACN2 31-Mar idaa Dec-13 FIFA01ACN2 14-Apr idaa+/aaa(idn) Dec-13 FIFA01BCN1 20-Apr idaa Dec-13 FIFA11C 26-Apr idaa Dec-13 IMFI01ACN2 18-May ida Dec-13 ADMF05C 27-May idaa Dec-13 TAFS03A 27-May AAA(idn) Dec-13 SIKISAT02 29-May idaa+(sy) Dec-13 ISAT05A 29-May idaa Dec-13 OTMA07D 8-Jun idaa Dec-13 MEDC02B 17-Jun AA Dec-13 INDF05 18-Jun AA Dec-13 BCAF01ACN2 24-Jun idaa+/aaa(idn) Dec-13 TRAC03B 5-Jul ida Dec-13 ASDF02ACN1 7-Jul idaa Dec-13 PNBN04 6-Oct AA Dec-13 ASDF01BCN2 12-Oct idaa Dec-13 ADMF04E 29-Oct idaa Dec-13 ADMF02ACN2 3-Nov idaa Dec-13 CFIN03C 8-Nov ida Dec-13 PPLN07 11-Nov idaa Dec-13 SIKSIMP01 1-Dec AA Dec-13 SIMP01 1-Dec AA Dec-13 PPKT02 4-Dec AA Dec-13 ASDF02ACN2 6-Dec idaa+/aaa(idn) Dec-13 ISAT07A 8-Dec AA Dec-13 ADMF01BCN1 16-Dec idaa Dec-13 SIKMAPI01B 16-Dec A Dec-13 BEXI01ACN1 20-Dec idaaa Dec-13 SANF02C 20-Jan idaa Dec-13 ASDF01BCN1 21-Feb idaa Dec-13 FIFA01CCN1 20-Apr idaa Dec-13 BCAF01CCN1 9-May idaa+/aa+(idn) Dec-13 TUFI06D 19-May ida Dec-13 TAFS02B 5-Jun idaa/aaa(idn) Dec-13 BIIF01B 7-Jun AA+(idn) Dec-13 SMSM02C 8-Jul idaa Dec-13 SIKPPLN04A 8-Jul idaa+(sy) Dec-13 SSIA01A 6-Nov ida Dec-13 BWPT01 16-Nov ida Dec-13 BTPN03B 22-Dec AA-(idn) Dec-13 DNRK01ACN1 9-Jan ida Dec-13 BIMF01B 9-Jan [Idr]BBB Dec-13 BCAF01DCN1 9-May idaa+/aa+(idn) Dec-13 PPGD11A 23-May idaa Dec-13 TUFI01ACN1 5-Jun idaa Dec-13 BCAF01BCN2 14-Jun idaa+/aaa(idn) Dec-13 BDKI06B 17-Jun ida Dec-13 PPLN08A 21-Jun idaa Dec-13 APLN01B 25-Aug ida Dec-13 JSMR01BCN1S 27-Sep idaa Dec-13 BNII01BCN1 6-Dec AAA(idn) Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 6

7 APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds TradingTrading 2 December - 6 December 2013 (Cont'd) Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Price Bn) Yield 5-Dec-13 ADMF01CCN1 16-Dec idaa Dec-13 BNGA01B 23-Dec idaaa Dec-13 ASDF01CCN1 21-Feb idaa Dec-13 SMFP01CCN2 25-Apr AA(idn) Dec-13 WSKT02B 5-Jun ida Dec-13 BCAF01CCN2 14-Jun idaa+/aaa(idn) Dec-13 BSDE01BCN1 4-Jul ida Dec-13 BNGA01SB 8-Jul AA(idn) Dec-13 APLN02 15-Aug ida Dec-13 BNGA01BCN1 30-Oct IdAAA/AAA(idn) Dec-13 SSIA01B 6-Nov ida Dec-13 PNBN04SB 9-Nov idaa-/a+(idn) Dec-13 SISSMM01 30-Nov ida(sy) Dec-13 SIAGII02 18-Dec A-(idn) Dec-13 ADHI01ACN2 15-Mar ida Dec-13 SIAISA01 5-Apr ida-(sy) Dec-13 AISA01 5-Apr ida Dec-13 APLN01CN1 27-Jun ida Dec-13 BCAP01CN1 5-Jul idbbb Dec-13 PTPNX01 5-Jul ida Dec-13 PPGD10BXBVTW 11-Jul idaa Dec-13 ANTM01ACN1 14-Dec idaa Dec-13 BEXI01CCN1 20-Dec idaaa Dec-13 PNBN01SBCN1 20-Dec idaa Dec-13 BNGA02SB 23-Dec AA(idn) Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 7

8 RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet ext Market Analyst Rifki Rizal ext Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe Ayesha Ardelia Melissa Hartono Production & Database Management Eka Nuraini ext ext ext ext Debt Capital Market Division Debt Capital Market Div. (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) / 25 Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto budisusanto@danareksa.com ext Debt Sales & Brokerage Rina Rimawati D rina@danareksa.com 62 21) Debt Trading & Investment Romi Mulyadi ext romi@danareksa.com ext Agung Suprihanto agungs@danareksa.com Putrika Mayadipta putrikam@danareksa.com ext ext Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo setyohp@danareksa.com ext Ariningtyas W. Agustina ariningtyasw@danareksa.com ext Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy hernitada@danareksa.com ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice 8