Global Bonds Market Conditions

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1 WEEKLY REPORT D E B T RESEARCH 10 JUN 14 JUN 2013 Global Bonds Market Conditions Country's FCLT Rating S & P Moody's Fitch BB+ Baa3 BBB Key Market Indicator as of 07Jun13 BI Rate 5.75% JCI 4,865 IDR 9,886 Inflation(yoy) May % Market Outstanding as of 07Jun13 Government Bond Corporate Bond IDR tn IDR tn Yields on 10year Government bonds have been in an uptrend since midapril As of June 10, 2013, the yield on 10year Government bonds stood at 6.55%, up 108bps from the beginning of the year. Likewise, the yields on 10 year U.S. Treasury and 10year Generic German government bonds have also increased. As of June 10, 2013, the yield on the 10year UST rose 36bps to 2.22% and the yield on the 10year Generic German government bond climbed 10bps to 1.55% from a year earlier. Changes in the yield curve (WoW) for the three countries shows a relatively higher increase in the yields on bonds with a tenor of 1 to 5 years. In contrast to bond prices, the stock market indexes of these three countries have exhibited a rising trend. The JCI Index stood at 4,777 as of 10 June 2013, or up 10% from a year earlier, while the DOW JONES and DEX are up 14% and 7% at 15,238 and 8,307, respectively. Yield curve 10tahun obligasi Pemerintah masih dalam tren meningkat sejak pertengahan April 2013 dan berada pada 6,55% per tanggal 10 Juni 2013, atau naik sebesar 108bps dari awal tahun. Pola yang sama terjadi pada US Treasury 10 tahun dan Germany generic yield curve 10tahun. UST 10tahun naik 36bps menjadi 2,22% dan Germany generic yield curve 10tahun yang naik 10bps dari awal tahun menjadi 1,55%. Perubahan yield curve (WoW) dari ketiga negara memperlihatkan bahwa terjadi kenaikan yield relatif yang lebih tinggi untuk obligasi bertenor 1 hingga 5tahun. Berbeda dengan obligasi, indeks stok market ketiga negara memiliki pola kenaikan dari awal tahun. Indeks JCI per tanggal 10 Juni 2013 sebesar 4,777, atau naik 10% dari awal tahun, sedangkan indeks DOW JONES dan DEX naik sebesar 14% dan 7% menjadi 15,238 dan 8,307. Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bond Corporate Bond Government Bond Indices as of 07Jun13 Price Index Yield Index 6.26% Total Return Benchmark Yield as of 07Jun13 FR0066 (5 year) 5.362% FR0063 (10 year) 6.211% FR0064 (15 year) 6.803% FR0065 (20 year) 7.089% Calendar of Event 12Jun13 Germany CPI Year on Year (Survey : 1.5%; Prior : 1.5%) 13Jun13 US Initial Jobless Claim (Survey : 345K; Prior : 346K) 13Jun13 Bank Indonesia Refference Interest Rate (Survey : NA; Prior : 5.75%) IDR 36.61tn IDR 12.3tn 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 JCI, DOW JONES & DAX Index Jan09 Mar09 May09 Aug09 Oct09 Jan10 Mar10 May10 Aug10 Oct10 Jan11 Mar11 May11 Aug11 Oct11 Jan12 Mar12 May12 Aug12 Oct12 Dec12 Mar13 May13 DOW DAX JCI (RHS) Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate 5,500 4,500 3,500 2,500 1,500 Indonesian IDR Yield Curve 10Y, UST 10Y & Germany Generic Yield Curve 10Y (%) (%) Jan09 Mar09 May09 Aug09 Oct09 Jan10 Mar10 May10 Aug10 Oct10 Jan11 Mar11 May11 Aug11 Oct11 Jan12 Mar12 May12 Aug12 Oct12 Dec12 Mar13 May UST10Y German 10Y IDR Government Yield Curve 10Y (RHS) Analysts Rifki Rizal ext 3404 rifkir@danareksa.com Amir A. Dalimunthe ext.3405 amirda@danareksa.com Please read important disclosure at the back of this report Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate, US Treasury Bps Yield Change Week on Week 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 20Y 30Y Tenor Germany Generic Yield Curve 10Y UST 10Y IDR Government Yield Curve 10Y Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate, US Treasury

2 MACROECONOMICS CONDITION Foreign Investors Steadily Reduce Their SUN Holdings Government bond yields stood at 6.26% at the end of last week, up 27bps from the previous week s level of 5.99%. This is the highest level since September In the year to June 7, 2013, yields are up 80bps. The 5year CDS for Indonesia also continues to increase and ended last week at , up 15bps from the previous week s level. Foreign holdings in SUN have steadily declined. From May 28, 2013 to June 5, 2013, foreign holdings were down IDR 5.67 trillion. Domestic bank holdings in SUN stood at IDR trillion as of June 5, 2013, or more than foreign holdings which only reached IDR trillion. Rupiah volatility was still high and the local currency unit weakened against the US Dollar. The Rupiah ended the week at Rp9,886/USD compared to Rp9,877/USD the previous week. Yield obligasi Pemerintah pada akhir minggu lalu berada pada level 6,26%, atau naik sebesar 27bps dari minggu sebelumnya yang berada pada level 5,99%. Ini merupakan angka tertinggi sejak September 2012, sedangkan perubahan yield dari awal tahun hingga tanggal 7 Juni 2013 sebesar 80bps. Sama seperti yield index, CDS 5tahun indonesia juga terus meningkat dan menutup akhir minggu lalu pada level 190,67, atau naik 15bps dari minggu sebelumnya. Kepemilikan asing terhadap SUN turun secara perlahan, terhitung sejak tanggal 28 Mei 2013 hingga 5 Juni 2013, kepemilikan asing telah turun sebesar Rp5,67 triliun. Kepemilikan bank domestik terhadap SUN per tanggal 5 Juni 2013 sebesar Rp310,23 triliun, sedangkan kepemilikan asing hanya sebesar Rp300,05 triliun. Rupiah kembali melemah pada akhir minggu lalu pada level Rp9,886 per Dollar AS dengan tingkat volatilitas yang masih tinggi. 6.30% 6.20% 6.10% 6.00% 5.90% 5.80% 5.70% 5.60% 5.50% 5.40% BI Rate Inflation Forecast Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg Yield Index 11Mar13 15Mar13 20Mar13 25Mar13 28Mar13 3Apr13 8Apr13 11Apr13 16Apr13 19Apr13 24Apr13 29Apr13 2May13 7May13 13May13 16May13 21May13 24May13 29May13 3Jun13 7Jun13 Domestic Bank Increased Their SUN Ownership Inflation Yield Index (LHS) 6.0% 5.5% 4.5% CDS 5Year (bps) Feb13 28Feb13 6Mar13 13Mar13 19Mar13 25Mar13 1Apr13 5Apr13 11Apr13 17Apr13 23Apr13 29Apr13 3May13 10May13 16May13 22May13 28May13 3Jun13 10Jun13 Indonesia Philipinnes Brazil Turkey Source: Bloomberg Rupiah closed at Rp9,886 per USD Mar13 15Mar13 20Mar13 25Mar13 28Mar13 3Apr13 8Apr13 11Apr13 16Apr13 19Apr13 24Apr13 29Apr13 2May13 7May13 13May13 16May13 21May13 24May13 29May13 3Jun RRBI (RHS) BI (RHS) Domestic Bank Foreign Investors 18Mar13 21Mar13 26Mar13 1Apr13 4Apr13 9Apr13 12Apr13 17Apr13 22Apr13 25Apr13 30Apr13 3May13 8May13 14May13 17May13 22May13 27May13 30May13 4Jun13 10Jun13 10,200 10,150 10,100 10,050 10,000 9,950 9,900 9,850 9,800 9,750 9,700 9,650 9,600 Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Bloomberg Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor Corporate Bonds Trading by Rating AA+ AA A AAA AA AAA 10% AA 9% A+ A BBB 3% 3% 2% AA+ 47% Term to Maturity A+ A BBB A 12% AA 14% Source: IDX Process Data Source: IDX Process Data 2

3 GOVERNMENT BONDS REVIEW Yields on the 15year & 20year Benchmarks Reach Their Highest Levels Yields on the benchmark series continued to increase. The yields on the FR0064 and FR0065 (the 15year and 20year benchmarks) even reached their highest levels since issuance. The yield on FR0064 stood at 6.80% at the end of last week, or up 21bps from the previous week s level, while the yield on FR0065 reached 7.90%, or up 23bps from last week s level. Total trading in SUN was down by IDR 3.4 trillion over the week. The decline in trading stemmed from lower trading in the medium and long tenors, while trading in shorter tenors increased. Trading in short tenors increased by IDR 3.5 trillion, while trading in medium and long tenors was down by IDR 5.9 trillion and IDR 1.7 trillion. The Government bonds yield curve shifted up last week for each tenor, with the short tenor government bonds exhibiting a greater shift compared to the other maturities. Yield dari seri benchmark terus meningkat, bahkan FR0064 dan FR0065 (benchmark 15tahun dan 20tahun) mencapai yield tertingginya sejak penerbitan perdana. Yield FR0064 akhir minggu lalu berada di level 6,80%, naik 21bps dari minggu lalu, sedangkan FR0065 berada pada level 7,90%, naik 23bps dari minggu lalu. Total volume perdagangan SUN minggu lalu turun sebesar Rp4,1 triliun dari minggu sebelumnya. Penurunan tersebut diakibatkan pada penurunan pada tenor sedang dan panjang, sedangkan untuk tenor pendek mengalami peningkatan. Volume perdagangan untuk tenor pendek naik Rp3,5 triliun, sedangkan untuk tenor sedang dan panjang turun masingmasing sebesar Rp 5,9 triliun dan Rp1,7 triliun. Perubahan yield curve memperlihatkan bahwa peningkatan yield untuk tenor pendek lebih besar dari tenor sedang dan panjang. Spread Indon 10 year Over UST 10 year 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 4Jun12 24Jun12 14Jul12 3Aug12 23Aug12 12Sep12 2Oct12 22Oct12 11Nov12 1Dec12 21Dec12 10Jan13 30Jan13 19Feb13 11Mar13 31Mar13 20Apr13 10May13 30May13 Risk Premium 10Y UST 10Y INDON 10Y Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Spread SUN 10 year over Indon 10 year 7.0% 6.0% Govt Bonds Benchmark Series Yield Daily Trade Volume FR0066 5Y FR Y FR Y FR Y 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% Govt Short Govt Med Govt Long Corp % Jun12 9Jul12 27Jul12 16Aug12 11Sep12 1Oct12 19Oct12 9Nov12 3Dec12 21Dec12 16Jan13 6Feb13 26Feb13 19Mar13 9Apr13 29Apr13 20May13 10Jun13 27May13 28May13 29May13 30May13 31May13 3Jun13 4Jun13 5Jun13 7Jun13 10Jun13 1.0% 4Jun12 22Jun12 10Jul12 28Jul12 15Aug12 2Sep12 20Sep12 8Oct12 26Oct12 13Nov12 1Dec12 19Dec12 6Jan13 24Jan13 11Feb13 1Mar13 19Mar13 6Apr13 24Apr13 12May13 30May13 Currency Risk Premium 10Y INDON 10Y SUN 10Y Source: Bloomberg Source: IDX processed data 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 5.60% 2.74% 1.13% Yield Curve Comparison 6.55% 4.26% 2.22% 7.00% 7.21% 7.39% 4.85% 2.63% 5.12% 3.03% Term to Maturity UST YC GoI USD Yield Curve GoI IDR Yield Curve Source: US Treasury, Danareksa Estimate 5.34% 3.36% 0% Yield Curve Change 0.40% 0.35% 0.30% 0.25% 0.20% 0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% Term to Maturity Source: Danareksa Estimate 3

4 APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 3 June 7 June 2013 Last Trade Date Bonds Maturity Last Freq Vol (IDR bn) Coupon Yield (%) Modified Price Duration 7Jun13 FR May , Jun13 FR May , Jun13 FR May , Jun13 FR May , Jun13 FR Jun , Jun13 ORI008 15Oct , Jun13 VR Apr Jun13 FR May Jun13 FR Jun Jun13 SR005 27Feb Jun13 FR Sep Jun13 FR Sep Jun13 FR Apr Jun13 SPN Jun Jun13 ORI009 15Oct Jun13 FR Jul Jun13 FR Jun Jun13 SPN Mar Jun13 FR Apr Jun13 FR May Jun13 SPN Jan Jun13 FR Oct Jun13 FR Sep Jun13 FR Sep Jun13 SPN Aug Jun13 SPN Jul Jun13 FR Jul Jun13 SPN Feb Jun13 FR Dec Jun13 FR Jun Jun13 FR Nov Jun13 FR Sep Jun13 FR Sep Jun13 FR May Jun13 FR Jul Jun13 SR004 21Sep Jun13 FR Sep Jun13 FR May Jun13 FR Feb Jun13 FR Aug Jun13 PBS004 15Feb Jun13 FR Jul Jun13 FR Jul Jun13 ORI007 15Aug Jun13 FR May Jun13 SR003 23Feb Jun13 FR Jul Jun13 FR Jul Jun13 FR Aug Jun13 ORI005 15Sep Jun13 FR May Jun13 PBS001 15Feb Source: Danareksa, BEI 4

5 APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 3 June 7 June 2013 Last Trade Date Bonds Maturity Last Freq Vol (IDR bn) Coupon Yield (%) Modified Price Duration 7Jun13 FIFA01BCN2 4Apr Jun13 SIAGII02 18Dec Jun13 SMFP02ACN2 31Mar Jun13 FIFA01BCN1 20Apr Jun13 BEXI01ACN3 2Jun Jun13 BIIF01C 7Jun Jun13 ASDF01BCN3 22Feb Jun13 MEDC01CN2 15Mar Jun13 BCAF01BCN1 9May Jun13 TAFS03A 27May Jun13 BIMF01A 14Jan Jun13 FIFA01ACN2 14Apr Jun13 ADMF01ACN3 7Oct Jun13 ASDF01ACN2 22Oct Jun13 SIKMPPA01B 14Apr Jun13 BIIF01B 7Jun Jun13 BCAF01SB 23Mar Jun13 NISP01ACN1 1Mar Jun13 ASDF12C 25Feb Jun13 ADMF05C 27May Jun13 BDMN02A 9Dec Jun13 FAST01 6Oct Jun13 PNBN04SB 9Nov Jun13 BNLI01SBCN2 19Dec Jun13 FIFA11C 26Apr Jun13 BNLI02SB 28Jun Jun13 SMADMF01ACN1 11Mar Jun13 ADMF02BCN1 1Mar Jun13 BNII01ACN1 6Dec Jun13 ISAT05A 29May Jun13 SIISAT05 27Jun Jun13 MYOR04 9May Jun13 MEDC03 19Jun Jun13 SMFP01ACN2 25Apr Jun13 JPFA01CN1 12Jan Jun13 PNBN01SBCN1 20Dec Jun13 TRAC02C 5Jul Jun13 BIMF01B 9Jan Jun13 IMAT01A 29Jun Jun13 ASDF01BCN1 21Feb Jun13 OTMA07D 8Jun Jun13 SMKMYOR02 9May Jun13 JMPD11PXBFTW 10Oct Jun13 PNBN02C 19Jun Jun13 NISP01BCN1 19Feb Jun13 SIKSMRA01 25Jun Jun13 TBLA02 5Jul Jun13 CFIN03C 8Nov Jun13 AISA01 5Apr Jun13 SIKPPLN01 10Jul Jun13 PPLN07 11Nov Jun13 ADMF01BCN2 4May Jun13 SANF02C 20Jan Jun13 DNRK01BCN1 9Jan Jun13 SMADMF01CCN1 1Mar Jun13 IMFI04B 9Jun Jun13 BBTN12 19Sep Jun13 BEXI01BCN3 23May Jun13 ADMF04D 29Oct Jun13 ADMF01CCN3 27Sep Source: Danareksa, BEI 5

6 RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet ext Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe ext Market Analyst Rifki Rizal ext Ayesha Ardelia ext Production & Database Management Eka Nuraini ext Debt Capital Market Division Debt Capital Market Div. (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) / 25 Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto budisusanto@danareksa.com ext Debt Sales & Brokerage Rina Rimawati D rina@danareksa.com (62 21) Debt Trading & Investment Romi Mulyadi ext romi@danareksa.com ext Agung Suprihanto agungs@danareksa.com Putrika Mayadipta putrikam@danareksa.com ext ext Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo setyohp@danareksa.com ext Ariningtyas W. Agustina ariningtyasw@danareksa.com ext Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy hernitada@danareksa.com ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice 6