Waiting for the New Benchmark Series

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1 WEEKLY REPORT D E B T RESEARCH 9 JUNE 2015 Waiting for the New Benchmark Series Indonesia LTFLC Rating S & P Moody's Fitch BB+ Baa3 BBB Key Market Indicators as of 08Jun15 BI Rate 7.50% JCI Index 5,015 IDR 13,385 Inflation(yoy) May % Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov't Bonds as of 05Jun15 Corp Bonds as of 04Jun15 Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds Corporate Bonds IDR 1,340.8tn IDR 232.8tn IDR 35.30tn IDR 1.82tn Benchmark Yield as of 08Jun15 FR0069 (5 year) 8.403% FR0070 (10 year) 8.711% FR0071 (15 year) 8.904% FR0068 (20 year) 8.888% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM Keeping the Pace The Bond market came under pressure last week. The Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index ended the week at 8.5%, up 35bps over the week, recording a loss of 2.22%. Foreign ownership stood at IDR trillion last Wednesday, an alltime high in nominal terms. Although foreign investor holdings keep setting new highs, their holdings have been maintained in proportional terms. Over the last month, the average proportion of foreign holdings in Government bonds reached 38.37% with a minimum proportion of 37.93% and maximum proportion of 38.73%, respectively. Meanwhile, domestic bank ownership rose IDR4.38 trillion to IDR trillion (or 27.93% of the total amount outstanding) last week. Benchmark Regeneration The Government decided to reopen FR0053 (maturing on 15 July 2021) at this week s auction. This could encourage investors to speculate on a replacement for other benchmark series. FR0053 was a former 10year benchmark in 2011 along with FR0055, FR0056 and FR0054. If the Government will reuse former benchmarks, here is a list of bonds that have a good chance of being named benchmarks in the future: Mengatur Langkah Pasar obligasi masih tertekan selama sepekan terakhir. Danareksa Government Bond Yield Index menutup minggu lalu pada level 8,5%, naik 35bps dari minggu sebelumnya, sekaligus mencatatkan loss sebesar 2,22%. Di sisi lain, kepemilikan asing mencapai nominal tertinggi pada Rabu minggu lalu sebesar Rp516,46 triliun atau 38,54% dari total outstanding obligasi Pemerintah. Walaupun asing terus mencatatkan rekor tertinggi, namun secara proporsi terlihat bahwa investor asing menjaga proporsi kepemilikannya. Selama satu bulan terakhir, ratarata porsi kepemilikan asing di obligasi Pemerintah sebesar 38,37% dengan proporsi terkecil dan terbesar masingmasing sebesar 37,93% dan 38,73%. Sementara itu, kepemilikan bank domestik selama minggu lalu naik Rp4,38 triliun menjadi Rp374,47 triliun (atau 27,93% dari total outstanding) Regenerasi Benchmark Pada lelang minggu ini, Pemerintah memutuskan untuk menggunakan obligasi seri FR0053, jatuh tempo pada 15 Juli Hal ini dapat menimbulkan spekulasi investor terhadap calon pengganti seri benchmark lainnya. Seri FR0053 merupakan mantan benchmark 10tahun pada tahun 2011 bersama seri FR0055, FR0056 dan FR0054. Jika Pemerintah secara konsisten menggunakan ex benchmark, berikut daftar seri obligasi yang berpotensi sebagai benchmark berikutnya : Government Bonds Indices as of 08Jun15 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 8.70% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) Calendar of Event 11Jun15 US Initital Jobless Claim SA (Survey : 275K; Prior : 276K) 15Jun15 Indonesia Trade Balance (Survey : NA; Prior : $454M) Exhibit 1. Government FR Series with 5yr, 10yr, 15yr, & 20yr TTM Series Issue Date Maturity Date Coupon TTM Yield as of 8 Jun 2015 FR0053 8Jul10 15Jul FR Aug13 15Mar FR Sep06 15Sep FR May06 15Sep FR Sep10 15Sep FR Sep13 15Mar FR Aug09 15Aug FR Jul10 15Jul FR0068 1Aug13 15Mar FR May07 15May FR Jan08 15Jul Source: Danareksa Estimates Analysts Rifki Rizal (62 21) ext 3404 rifkir@danareksa.com Amir A. Dalimunthe (62 21) ext 3405 amirda@danareksa.com Please read important disclosure at the back of this report Historically, another impact of benchmark replacement is selling pressure in the secondary market. In Exhibit 2 it can be seen that the liquidity of the old benchmark fell gradually as the liquidity of the new benchmark increased. Regeneration of a benchmark series somewhat affects Government bonds yield index movements. This is due to selling pressure on the old benchmark which may potentially lead to an increase in the government bonds yield index. Government Securities Supply The targeted issuance of government bonds in the second quarter of 2015 is IDR93.5 trillion. Since the beginning of April until last week, the total issuance of government bonds already reached IDR51.1 trillion (54.65% of the total initial target). In other words, the government has to complete the remainder of the target of IDR42.4 trillion in the last 4 auctions (including this week) of 2Q15. In addition, the government has stated that no additional bond issuances will be undertaken this year. Secara historis, dampak lain dari pergantian benchmark ialah tekanan jual yang terjadi di pasar sekunder. Pada Exhibit 2 terlihat bahwa likuiditas seri benchmark lama semakin turun seiring dengan meningkatnya likuiditas seri benchmark baru. Pergantian seri benchmark sedikit banyaknya berpengaruh terhadap pergerakan indeks yield obligasi Pemerintah. Hal tersebut terjadi karena tekanan jual benchmark lama yang berpotensi menyebabkan peningkatan pada indeks yield obligasi Pemerintah. Supply Surat Berharga Negara Target penerbitan lelang obligasi Pemerintah pada kuartal II tahun 2015 mencapai Rp93,5 triliun. Sedangkan jumlah obligasi yang telah diterbitkan dari awal April hingga minggu lalu mencapai Rp51,1 triliun atau telah tercapai 54,65% dari target penerbitan. Dengan kata lain, Pemerintah harus mencukupi sisa target sebesar Rp42,4 triliun di 4 lelang terakhir (termasuk lelang minggu ini) pada 2Q15. Selain itu, Pemerintah telah menyatakan bahwa tidak ada tambahan penerbitan obligasi pada tahun ini.

2 8 12 June 2015 WEEKLY REPORT Exhibit 2. Secondary Market Weekly Trade Volume IDR Billion 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jan11 Mar11 May11 Jul11 Sep11 Nov11 Jan12 Mar12 May12 Jul12 Sep12 Nov12 Jan13 Mar13 May13 Jul13 Sep13 Nov13 Jan14 Mar14 May14 Jul14 Sep14 Nov14 Jan15 Mar15 May15 FR0053 FR0061 FR0063 FR0070 Yield Index (RHS) Source: IDX 2

3 8 12 June 2015 WEEKLY REPORT APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 1 5 June 2015 Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Tenor Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Freq Yield Date Price Bn) Class 5Jun15 FR Jun < 1yr 4Jun15 SPN Jul < 1yr 5Jun15 SPN Aug < 1yr 5Jun15 SPN Sep , < 1yr 5Jun15 SR004 21Sep < 1yr 4Jun15 SPN Oct < 1yr 4Jun15 ORI009 15Oct < 1yr 5Jun15 SPNS Nov < 1yr 5Jun15 SR005 27Feb < 1yr 4Jun15 SPN Mar < 1yr 3Jun15 VR Mar < 1yr 5Jun15 FR May , < 1yr 5Jun15 PBS008 15Jun , yr 5yr 5Jun15 FR Sep yr 5yr 5Jun15 ORI010 15Oct yr 5yr 5Jun15 VR Oct yr 5yr 5Jun15 SR006 5Mar , yr 5yr 5Jun15 FR Apr , yr 5yr 5Jun15 FR Jul yr 5yr 5Jun15 ORI011 15Oct yr 5yr 5Jun15 SR007 11Mar , yr 5yr 5Jun15 FR May yr 5yr 5Jun15 FR Sep yr 5yr 5Jun15 FR Apr , yr 5yr 5Jun15 FR Sep yr 5yr 5Jun15 PBS006 15Sep yr 10yr 5Jun15 FR Nov yr 10yr 5Jun15 FR Jun yr 10yr 5Jun15 FR Jul yr 10yr 5Jun15 FR May yr 10yr 4Jun15 FR Jun yr 10yr 3Jun15 FR Jul yr 10yr 5Jun15 FR May yr 10yr 5Jun15 FR Aug yr 10yr 5Jun15 FR Mar , yr 10yr 3Jun15 FR Sep yr 10yr 4Jun15 FR Sep > 10yr 5Jun15 FR Sep > 10yr 5Jun15 FR May > 10yr 4Jun15 FR Feb > 10yr 5Jun15 FR May > 10yr 5Jun15 FR Mar , > 10yr 3Jun15 IFR Mar > 10yr 1Jun15 FR Aug > 10yr 5Jun15 FR Jul > 10yr 5Jun15 FR Jun > 10yr 5Jun15 FR May > 10yr 5Jun15 FR Mar , > 10yr 5Jun15 PBS004 15Feb > 10yr 5Jun15 FR May > 10yr 5Jun15 FR Apr > 10yr 5Jun15 FR Feb > 10yr Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 3

4 8 12 June 2015 WEEKLY REPORT APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 1 5 June 2015 Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Bonds Maturity Price Bn) Yield 4Jun15 PNBN05 9Nov idaa Jun15 BWPT01 16Nov idbbb Jun15 BEXI01BCN2 27Nov idaaa Jun15 BDMN02B 9Dec idaaa Jun15 WOMF01ACN2 15Dec AA(idn) Jun15 BJBR07B 9Feb idaa Jun15 NISP01ACN2 20Feb AA(idn) Jun15 ADMF02CCN1 1Mar idaaa Jun15 BTPN01ACN3 5Mar AA(idn) Jun15 BFIN02ACN2 29Mar A+(idn) Jun15 FIFA01BCN2 4Apr idaaa Jun15 BBIA01A 11Apr AAA(idn) Jun15 IMFI01BCN2 8May ida Jun15 IMFI01CCN1 11May ida Jun15 BSSB01B 12May ida Jun15 BEXI01BCN3 23May idaaa Jun15 BDKI06B 17Jun idaa Jun15 BTPN01BCN1 28Jun AA(idn) Jun15 APLN01B 25Aug ida Jun15 ADMF01CCN1 16Dec idaaa Jun15 BNGA01B 23Dec idaaa Jun15 ASDF01CCN1 21Feb idaaa Jun15 MFIN02BCN1 8May ida Jun15 SMKMYOR02 9May idaa Jun15 ISAT05B 29May idaaa Jun15 INDF06 31May idaa Jun15 IMAT01C 19Jun idbbb Jun15 JMPD13R 21Jun idaa Jun15 ADHISM1CN1 3Jul ida Jun15 BSDE01BCN1 4Jul idaa Jun15 TBLA02 5Jul ida Jun15 SIKPPLN01 10Jul idaaa Jun15 APLN02 15Aug ida Jun15 ASDF02BCN4 29Oct idaaa Jun15 BNGA01BCN1 30Oct idaaa Jun15 PNBN04SB 9Nov idaa Jun15 WOMF01BCN2 5Dec AA(idn) Jun15 ISAT01ACN1 12Dec idaaa Jun15 AKRA01A 21Dec idaa Jun15 NISP01CCN2 10Feb AA(idn) Jun15 ADMF02DCN1 1Mar idaaa Jun15 BEXI02BCN5 13Mar idaaa Jun15 MEDC01CN2 15Mar idaa Jun15 SIAISA01 5Apr ida Jun15 FIFA02BCN1 24Apr idaaa Jun15 MFIN02CCN1 8May ida Jun15 BNII01SB 19May AA(idn) Jun15 BIIF02B 19Jun AA+(idn) Jun15 APLN01CN1 27Jun ida Jun15 JSMR01CCN1S 27Sep idaa Jun15 SISMRA01CN1 11Dec ida Jun15 SMRA01CN1 11Dec ida Jun15 BBKP01SBCN1 6Mar ida Jun15 MYOR04 9May idaa Jun15 INDF07 13Jun idaa Jun15 BNLI01SBCN1 15Jun idaa Jun15 TAXI01 24Jun ida Jun15 ISAT08A 27Jun idaaa Jun15 ISAT01BCN1 12Dec idaaa Jun15 APLN01CN3 19Dec ida Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 4

5 8 12 June 2015 WEEKLY REPORT APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds TradingTrading 1 5 June 2015 (Cont'd) Last Trade Vol (IDR Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Done Freq Date Price Bn) Yield 4Jun15 APLN01CN3 19Dec ida Jun15 AKRA01B 21Dec idaa Jun15 BEXI02CCN5 13Mar idaaa Jun15 TLKM02B 6Jul idaaa Jun15 BNGA02SB 23Dec AA(idn) Jun15 BACA01SB 13Jan idbbb Jun15 ISAT08B 27Jun idaaa Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 5

6 8 12 June 2015 WEEKLY REPORT RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet ext Market Analyst Rifki Rizal ext Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe Ayesha Ardelia Melissa Hartono Production & Database Management Eka Nuraini ext ext ext ext Debt Capital Market Division Debt Capital Market Div. (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) / 25 Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto budisusanto@danareksa.com ext Debt Sales & Brokerage Breisga Nawangsidi breisga.nawangsidi@danareksa.com 62 21) ext Debt Trading & Investment Rina Rimawati D rina@danareksa.com Romi Mulyadi ext romi@danareksa.com ext Putrika Mayadipta putrikam@danareksa.com ext Indra Figrachanda indraf@danareksa.com ext Ariningtyas W. Agustina ariningtyasw@danareksa.com Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy hernitada@danareksa.com ext ext Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo setyohp@danareksa.com ext Tia Aprianti tia.aprianti@danareksa.com ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice 6