Positivity Leads to Stability

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1 WEEKLY REPORT D E B T RESEARCH FEBRUARY 2014 Indonesia FCLT Rating S & P Moody's Fitch BB+ Baa3 BBB- Key Market Indicators as of BI Rate 7.50% JCI Index 4,467 IDR 12,161 Inflation(y-o-y) - Jan % Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov't Bonds as of 06-Feb-14 Corp Bonds as of Jan-14 Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds Corporate Bonds Benchmark Yield as of FR0069 (5 year) 7.988% FR0070 (10 year) 8.990% FR0071 (15 year) 9.524% FR0068 (20 year) 9.551% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM Government Bonds Indices as of Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 9.01% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) Calendar of Event 13-Feb-14 US Initial Jobless Claims (Survey : 330K Prior : 331K) 13-Feb-14 Germany CPI YoY (Survey : 1.3%; Prior : 1.3%) 13-Feb-14 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate (Survey : 7.5%; Prior : 7.5%) Analysts Rifki Rizal ext 3404 rifkir@danareksa.com Amir A. Dalimunthe ext.3405 amirda@danareksa.com Please read important disclosure at the back of this report IDR tn IDR tn IDR 47.18tn IDR 2.05tn Positivity Leads to Stability Indonesia s Balance of Trade recorded a surplus of US$1.5 billion in December 2013, the highest in the last 2 years. Exports rose 6.5% on a YoY comparison in December 2013, while imports climbed 2.04%. GDP growth reached 5.72% YoY in 4Q13, but on a comparison with 3Q13, GDP growth slipped 1.42%. Looking ahead, inflation in 2014 is expected to be lower due to changes in the base year and because the impact of last year s fuel price hikes will disappear. USD Million, Danareksa Estimate 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Jan-08, Ministry of Finance 31-Jul Jan-09 Export, Import andtrade Balance 31-Jul Jan Jul Jan-11 Indonesia GDP Year on Year Yield Slope and BI Rate Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia bulan Desember 2013 tercatat surplus sebesar US$ 1,52 miliar, tertinggi selama 2 tahun terakhir. Selama Desember 2013, ekspor meningkat sebesar 6,56% dari bulan November 2013 dan pada periode yang sama, impor mengalami peningkatan sebesar 2,04%. YoY GDP 4Q13 mencapai 5,72%, namun jika dibandingkan dengan 3Q13, GDP di kuartal akhir 2013 turun 1,42%. Selain itu, inflasi tahun 2014 diperkirakan akan turun akibat perubahan tahun dasar dan hilangnya efek kenaikan BBM di tahun lalu Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 The average yield slope (the spread between the yield curve of 10-year and 2 year government bonds) rose 42bps to 161bps in February, meaning that the government bond yield curve is steepening. If Bank Indonesia lowers interest rates (the BI Rate), then the loan interest rate would fall, making Government bonds look more attractive, especially over the long term. As such, the yield on long tenors would decline and the yield curve would flatten Jan Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul-13 Trade Balance (RHS) Import Export 21-Feb Mar Apr-08 BI Rate (LHS) Yield Slope 8-May-08 3-Jun Jun-08 USD Million Rata-rata yield slope (spread antara yield curve 10 dan 2-tahun) selama bulan Februari meningkat 42bps menjadi 161bps, artinya yield curve obligasi Pemerintah dalam proses steepening. Jika BI menurunkan tingkat suku bunga (BI Rate), maka tingkat tingkat suku bunga pinjaman akan turun dan membuat obligasi Pemerintah semakin menarik, terutama untuk jangka panjang, Sehingga yield untuk tenor panjang akan turun dan yield curve kembali flat. 21-Jul Aug-08 9-Sep-08 8-Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan

2 MACROECONOMICS CONDITION Falling Risk The yield index rose 5bps from 8.96% at the end of the previous week to 9.01% at the end of last week. The Indonesia Credit Default Swap (CDS), an indicator of investment risk, declined by 13bps last week. From the end of January 2014 until February 6, 2014, foreign holdings in government bonds rose by IDR540 billion to IDR trillion, while domestic bank holdings in Government bonds fell IDR4.17 trillion. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia increased its holdings by IDR3.1 trillion and reduced its Reverse Repo by the same amount. On the currency front, the rupiah strengthened by 0.43% against the US dollar last week from IDR12,213 per USD to IDR12,161 per USD. Last week s total trading in corporate bonds in the secondary market was dominated by trading in financial companies and banks (34.5% and 22.7% of the respective total trading). Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg Yield Index 7-Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov-13 3-Dec-13 6-Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec-13 2-Jan-14 7-Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb-14 Yield Index (LHS) Inflation Gov't Bonds Ownership BI Rate Inflation Forecast 9.25% 9.00% 8.75% 8.50% 8.25% 8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00% Yield indeks naik 5bps dari 8,96% pada akhir mingu sebelumnya menjadi 9,01% pada akhir minggu lalu. CDS Indonesia yang menggambarkan risiko investasi mengalami penurunan 13bps selama minggu lalu. Sejak akhir Januari 2014 hingga 6 Februari 2014 kepemlikan asing meningkat Rp540 miliar menjadi Rp329,19 triliun sedangkan kepemilikan bank domestik turun hingga Rp4,17 triliun. Bank Indonesia dalam periode yang sama meningkatkan komposisi kepemilikannya terhadap obligasi Pemerintah sebesar Rp3,1 triliun dan mengurangi Reverse Repo dengan jumlah yang sama. Rupiah selama minggu lalu menguat 0,43% terhadap Dollar AS dari Rp per Dollar AS menjadi Rp per dollar AS. Transaksi obligasi korporasi di pasar sekunder selama minggu lalu masih didominasi oleh sektor financial company dan banking masing-masing sebesar 34,5% dan 22,7%. 22-Oct Oct-13 1-Nov-13 8-Nov Nov Nov Nov-13 2-Dec-13 CDS 5-Year (bps) 6-Dec Dec Dec Dec-13 3-Jan-14 9-Jan Jan-14 Rupiah closed at Rp12,161 per USD 22-Jan Jan-14 4-Feb Indonesia Philippines Brazil Turkey Nov-13 8-Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov-13 4-Dec-13 9-Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec-13 7-Jan Jan Jan Jan RR-BI (RHS) BI (RHS) Domestic Bank Foreign Investors 13-Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov-13 4-Dec-13 9-Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec-13 3-Jan-14 8-Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan-14 5-Feb-14 12,300 12,100 11,900 11,700 11,500 11,300 Source: Ministry of Finance Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor Corporate Bonds Trading by Sector Mining Oil & Natural Gas 14.3% Others 12.7% Banking 22.8% Consumer Goods 8.3% Term to Maturity Financial Company 34.7% Infrastructure 7.2% Source: IDX Process Data Source: IDX Process Data 2

3 Government BONDS REVIEW Steepening Yield Curve The 5-year benchmark series was the only benchmark to see lower yields last week, even though the decline was not significant. The yield on FR0069 declined slightly by 2bps to 7.98%. Meanwhile, the yields on FR0070 and FR0071 increased by 8bps. High demand from investors for short-tenor instruments was reflected in changes to last week s yield curve, resulting in a steeper government bonds yield curve. Total trading in Government bonds reached IDR47.18 trillion last week, or IDR7.03 trillion higher than in the previous week, with an average transaction of IDR18.3 billion. Overall, some 40% of the total trading was still dominated by medium tenors. Yield seri benchmark 5-tahun menjadi satu-satunya benchmark yang mengalami penurunan selama minggu lalu walaupun tidak signifikan. Yield FR0069 turun 2bps menjadi 7,98% pada penutupan minggu lalu. Sementara itu, FR0070 dan FR0071 sama-sama mengalami peningkatan sebesar 8bps. Tingginya permintaan investor terhadap tenor pendek yang tercermin dari perubahan yield curve minggu lalu mengakibatkan bentuk yield curve yang steepening untuk obligasi Pemerintah. Total volume perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah minggu lalu sebesar Rp47,18 triliun, meningkat Rp7,03 dari minggu sebelumnya, dengan rata-rata volume setiap transaksi sebesar Rp18,3 miliar. Sementara itu, 40% dari total volume perdagangan masih didominasi oleh tenor menengah. Spread INDON 10 year Over UST 10 year Spread IDR Gov't Bond 10 year over INDON 10 year 3.6% 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 0.9% 6.6% 6.1% 5.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.1% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Gov't Bonds Benchmark Series Yield, Danareksa Estimate 31-Jan Feb-13 1-Apr Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun-13 8-Jul-13 1-Aug-13 3-Sep Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-14 Risk Premium 10Y (LHS) UST 10Y INDON 10Y Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Currency Risk Premium 10Y (LHS) INDON 10Y SUN 10Y Daily Trading Volume 15-Feb-13 7-Mar Mar-13 FR0067-5Y FR Y 18-Apr-13 8-May May Jun-13 9-Jul Jul Aug-13 FR Y FR Y 12-Sep-13 2-Oct Oct Nov-13 4-Dec Dec Jan % 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 27-Jan-14 Govt Short Govt Med Govt Long Corp 28-Jan Jan Jan-14 3-Feb-14 4-Feb-14 5-Feb-14 6-Feb-14 7-Feb Source: IDX processed data Yield Curve Comparison as of 10 February 2014 Yield Curve Change from 30 January to 7 February % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 8.36% 4.21% 1.47% 9.19% 5.81% 2.71% 9.51% 9.65% 9.76% 6.38% 6.64% 6.83% 3.05% 3.39% 3.67% Term to Maturity UST YC GoI USD Yield Curve GoI IDR Yield Curve 0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% -0.05% -0.10% Term to Maturity Source: Danareksa Estimate Source: Danareksa Estimate 3

4 APPENDICES Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Tenor Modified Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Freq Yield Date Price Bn) Class Duration 7-Feb-14 SR Feb < 1yr Feb-14 SPNS Mar < 1yr Feb-14 SPN Mar < 1yr Feb-14 SPNS Apr < 1yr Feb-14 SPN Apr < 1yr Feb-14 SPN May < 1yr Feb-14 SPN May < 1yr Feb-14 SPN Jul < 1yr Feb-14 SPNS Jul < 1yr Feb-14 SPN Oct < 1yr Feb-14 FR Oct < 1yr Feb-14 ORI Oct < 1yr Feb-14 SPN Nov < 1yr Feb-14 VR Dec , < 1yr Feb-14 VR Apr , yr - 5yr Feb-14 FR Jun yr - 5yr Feb-14 SR Sep yr - 5yr Feb-14 ORI Oct yr - 5yr Feb-14 VR Nov yr - 5yr Feb-14 SR Feb yr - 5yr Feb-14 VR Mar yr - 5yr Feb-14 FR May yr - 5yr Feb-14 FR Sep yr - 5yr Feb-14 ORI Oct , yr - 5yr Feb-14 VR Oct yr - 5yr Feb-14 FR Apr yr - 5yr Feb-14 FR Jul yr - 5yr Feb-14 VR Sep yr - 5yr Feb-14 VR Jan yr - 5yr Feb-14 PBS Feb yr - 5yr Feb-14 FR May yr - 5yr Feb-14 FR Aug yr - 5yr Feb-14 FR Sep yr - 5yr Feb-14 FR Apr yr - 10yr Feb-14 FR Sep yr - 10yr Feb-14 FR Nov yr - 10yr Feb-14 FR Jun yr - 10yr Feb-14 FR Jul yr - 10yr Feb-14 FR May , yr - 10yr Feb-14 FR Jun yr - 10yr Feb-14 FR Jul yr - 10yr Feb-14 FR May , yr - 10yr Feb-14 FR Jul yr - 10yr Feb-14 FR Mar , > 10yr Feb-14 FR Sep > 10yr Feb-14 FR Sep > 10yr Feb-14 FR Sep > 10yr Feb-14 FR May , > 10yr Feb-14 FR Jul > 10yr Feb-14 FR Feb > 10yr Feb-14 FR May > 10yr Feb-14 FR Mar , > 10yr Feb-14 FR Aug > 10yr Feb-14 FR Jul > 10yr Feb-14 FR Jun , > 10yr Feb-14 FR May , > 10yr Feb-14 FR Mar , > 10yr Feb-14 FR May > 10yr Feb-14 FR Jul > 10yr Feb-14 FR Apr > 10yr Feb-14 PBS Apr > 10yr Source: Danareksa, BEI Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 3-7 February

5 APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 3-7 February 2014 Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Price Bn) Yield 4-Feb-14 ASDF01ACN3 4-Mar idaa Feb-14 ADMF02ACN1 11-Mar idaa Feb-14 ASDF11F 18-Mar idaa Feb-14 BCAF03D 23-Mar AA+(idn) Feb-14 FIFA11C 26-Apr idaa Feb-14 FIFA10D 29-Apr idaa Feb-14 BCAF01BCN1 9-May idaa+/aa+(idn) Feb-14 IMFI01ACN2 18-May ida Feb-14 TAFS03A 27-May AAA(idn) Feb-14 SIKISAT02 29-May idaa+(sy) Feb-14 BBTN13C 29-May AA Feb-14 MEDC02B 17-Jun AA Feb-14 INDF05 18-Jun AA Feb-14 PPGD13A1 1-Jul AA Feb-14 TRAC03B 5-Jul ida Feb-14 ASDF02ACN1 7-Jul idaa Feb-14 BTPN01B 7-Oct A Feb-14 ADMF04E 29-Oct idaa Feb-14 ADMF02ACN2 3-Nov idaa Feb-14 CFIN03C 8-Nov ida Feb-14 PPLN07 11-Nov idaa Feb-14 SIMP01 1-Dec AA Feb-14 PPKT02 4-Dec AA Feb-14 SIKPPKT01 4-Dec AA Feb-14 BNII01ACN1 6-Dec AAA(idn) Feb-14 SIKISAT04A 8-Dec AA Feb-14 ISAT07A 8-Dec AA Feb-14 ADMF01BCN1 16-Dec idaa Feb-14 SIKMAPI01B 16-Dec A Feb-14 SMFP01CCN1 21-Dec AA(idn) Feb-14 BBRI02 22-Dec AA Feb-14 SANF02C 20-Jan idaa Feb-14 ASDF01BCN1 21-Feb idaa Feb-14 FIFA01CCN1 20-Apr idaa Feb-14 SMFP01BCN2 25-Apr AA(idn) Feb-14 ADMF01CCN2 4-May idaa Feb-14 BCAF01CCN1 9-May idaa+/aa+(idn) Feb-14 IMFI01BCN1 11-May ida Feb-14 TAFS02B 5-Jun idaa/aaa(idn) Feb-14 IMFI04C 9-Jun ida Feb-14 ADMF01BCN3 27-Sep idaa Feb-14 BNGA01ACN2 20-Nov idaaa Feb-14 FIFA01BCN2 4-Apr idaa+/aaa(idn) Feb-14 BCAF01DCN1 9-May idaa+/aa+(idn) Feb-14 IMFI01CCN1 11-May ida Feb-14 TAFS03B 17-May AAA(idn) Feb-14 BEXI01BCN3 23-May idaaa Feb-14 PPLN08C 21-Jun idaa+(sy) Feb-14 SANF01BCN1 25-Sep idaa-/aa(idn) Feb-14 ADMF02BCN2 24-Oct idaa Feb-14 BNGA01BCN2 20-Nov idaaa Feb-14 ISAT07B 8-Dec AA Feb-14 BMRI01 11-Dec AA Feb-14 MEDC03 19-Jun idaa Feb-14 SIKPPLN01 10-Jul idaa+(sy) Feb-14 PPLN09A 10-Jul idaa Feb-14 BTPN01BCN2 3-Aug AA-(idn) Feb-14 APLN02 15-Aug ida Feb-14 BNGA01BCN1 30-Oct IdAAA/AAA(idn) Feb-14 SSIA01B 6-Nov ida Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 5

6 APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds TradingTrading 3-7 February 2014 (Cont'd) Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Price Bn) Yield 6-Feb-14 SSIA01B 6-Nov ida Feb-14 PNBN04SB 9-Nov idaa-/a+(idn) Feb-14 ASDF02CCN2 26-Nov idaa+/aaa(idn) Feb-14 AKRA01A 21-Dec idaa Feb-14 SMFP02BCN1 27-Dec idaa Feb-14 BTPN01BCN3 5-Mar AA-(idn) Feb-14 MEDC01CN2 15-Mar idaa Feb-14 AISA01 5-Apr ida Feb-14 BSDE01CN2 5-Jun idaa Feb-14 APLN01CN1 27-Jun ida Feb-14 BNGA01CCN2 20-Nov idaaa Feb-14 BNII01SBCN1 6-Dec AA-(idn) Feb-14 SMRA01CN1 11-Dec ida Feb-14 SISMRA01CN1 11-Dec ida+(sy) Feb-14 BEXI01CCN1 20-Dec idaaa Feb-14 BBKP01SBCN1 6-Mar ida Feb-14 BSBR02SB 26-Jun ida Feb-14 ISAT08A 27-Jun idaa Feb-14 PNBN01SBCN1 20-Dec idaa Feb-14 AKRA01B 21-Dec idaa Feb-14 JMPD14JM10 12-Oct idaa Feb-14 BBTN01CN1 5-Jun idaa/aa(idn) Feb-14 PPLN12B 8-Jul idaa Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 6

7 RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet ext Market Analyst Rifki Rizal ext Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe Ayesha Ardelia Melissa Hartono Production & Database Management Eka Nuraini ext ext ext ext Debt Capital Market Division Debt Capital Market Div. (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) / 25 Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto budisusanto@danareksa.com ext Debt Sales & Brokerage Rina Rimawati D rina@danareksa.com 62 21) Debt Trading & Investment Romi Mulyadi ext romi@danareksa.com ext Agung Suprihanto agungs@danareksa.com Putrika Mayadipta putrikam@danareksa.com ext ext Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo setyohp@danareksa.com ext Ariningtyas W. Agustina ariningtyasw@danareksa.com ext Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy hernitada@danareksa.com ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice 7