A Good Start 19 MAY 2015

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1 WEEKLY REPORT D E B T RESEARCH 19 MAY 2015 Indonesia FCLT Rating S & P Moody's Fitch BB+ Baa3 BBB Key Market Indicators as of 18May15 BI Rate 7.50% JCI Index 5,238 IDR 13,139 Inflation(yoy) Jan % A Good Start QE Policy Package In early March 2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) started to buy public sector securities in the Eurozone as part of its Quantitative Easing policy (QE). In addition, the ECB plans to spend 60 billion every month on its bondpurchasing program until September Before the Eurozone s QE, QE was successfully undertaken in the United States and the United Kingdom to boost economic growth. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of European QE needs to be examined further given the structural differences between the Eurozone and the US or the UK. Paket Kebijakan QE Pada awal Maret 2015, European Central Bank (ECB) memulai pembelian efek yang diterbitkan oleh sektor publik di zona Eropa sebagai bagian dari kebijakan Quantitative Easing (QE).Selainitu,ECBberencanaakan membelanjakan 60 miliar setiap bulannya untuk program pembelian obligasi ini hingga September Sebelum Eropa, QE juga sempat berhasil diterapkan oleh Amerika Serikat dan Inggris untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi mereka. Namun, efektifitas QE di zona Eropa masih perlu dicermati mengingat perbedaan struktur antara Eropa dengan AS atau Inggris. Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov't Bonds as of 15May15 Corp Bonds as of 12May15 Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds Corporate Bonds Benchmark Yield as of 18May15 FR0069 (5 year) 7.614% FR0070 (10 year) 7.965% FR0071 (15 year) 8.154% FR0068 (20 year) 8.265% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM Government Bonds Indices as of 18May15 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 8.02% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) Calendar of Event 21May15 US Initital Jobless Claim (Survey : 270K; Prior : 264K) 26May15 Indonesia Money Supply M2 YoY (Survey : NA; Prior : 16%; Revised : 16.3%) 28May15 Italy Consumer Confidence Indicator (Survey : NA; Prior : 108.2) IDR 1,330.4tn IDR 233.2tn IDR 61.41tn IDR 3.14tn The Top Priority Up until the end of April, ECB had bought billion of public sector securities from the Eurozone. The bonds of Germany, France and Italy accounted for most of the bonds purchased billion of German bonds were purchased by the ECB, or 23.37% of the total, with an average tenor of 7.9years. At the same time, purchases of French and Italian bonds were in 2nd and 3rd place with total purchases reaching 17.4 billion (18.28%) and 15.2 billion (12.02%), respectively. Meanwhile, only 53 million of Malta bonds were purchased or 0.06% of the total. Proritas Utama Hingga akhir April, ECB telah melakukan pembelian efek sebesar 95,06 miliar yang berasal dari beberapa negara Eropa. Jerman, Perancis dan Italia adalah tiga negara dengan porsi terbesar dalam kebijakan pembelian obligasi ini. Obligasi Jerman yang telah dibeli ECB mencapai 22.2 miliar, atau 23.37% dari total pembelianolehecb,denganrataratatenor sebesar 7,9 tahun. Di sisi lain, Perancis dan Italia berada di posisi 2 dan 3 dengan total pembelian masingmasing sebesar 17,4 miliar (18,28%) dan 15,2 miliar (12,02%). Sementara itu, Malta berada di posisi terakhir dengan jumlah pembelian hanya mencapai 53 juta atau 0,06% dari total pembelian ECB. Breakdown of Holding of Debt Securities Country of Total Purchasing (EUR Million) Weighted Average Tenor Issuer as of March as of April as of March as of April Total 47,356 95, Germany 11,063 22, France 8,752 17, Italy 7,604 15, Supranationals 5,680 11, Spain 5,444 10, Netherlands 2,486 5, Belgium 1,527 3, Austria 1,215 2, Portugal 1,073 2, Finland 774 1, Ireland 721 1, Slovakia 506 1, Slovenia Luxembourg Latvia Lithuania Malta Source: Analysts Rifki Rizal ext 3404 rifkir@danareksa.com Amir A. Dalimunthe ext.3405 amirda@danareksa.com Weaker Currency This policy triggered weakening of the Euro exchange rate because the ECB has increased the economy with a huge amount of liquidity every month. The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate (USDEUR) weakened 12.73% from per USD to per USD in 3M15. A weaker currency is expected to improve product competitiveness and boost economic growth as well. YoY Inflation in Europe in April was recorded at 0.1%, or unchanged from last month. This compares to inflation in January and February of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. Pelemahan Nilai Tukar Kebijakan ini memicu melemahnya nilai tukar dikarenakan ECB menambah likuiditas yang cukup besar setiap bulannya. Selama kuartal pertama tahun 2015, nilai tukar Euro terhadap Dollar AS (USDEUR) melemah hingga 12,73% dari 0,8227 per USD menjadi 0,9318 per USD. Pelemahan nilai tukar ini diharapkan dapat meningkatkan daya saing produk sekaligus mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Tingkat inflasi tahunan Eropa di bulan April tercatat sebesar 0,1%, atau tidak berubah dari bulan sebelumnya. Hal tersebut masih lebih baik jika dibandingkan dengan deflasi pada bulan Januari dan Februari 2015 yang mencapai angka 0,5% dan 0,3%. Please read important disclosure at the back of this report

2 18 22 May 2015 WEEKLY REPORT USDEUR Index Dec14 7Jan15 14Jan15 21Jan15 28Jan15 4Feb15 11Feb15 18Feb15 25Feb15 4Mar15 11Mar15 18Mar15 25Mar15 1Apr15 8Apr15 15Apr15 22Apr15 29Apr15 6May15 13May15 Yield Slope and Economic Growth Besides weakening the Euro exchange rate, QE is also expected to affect the yield slope (or the spread between the 10 and 2year government bond yield curve in several European countries. In Exhibit 2, Germany s yield slope has significantly increased since midapril. Germany s slope rose 48bps from 34bps on 20 April to 82bps on 11 May. Historically, an increase in the yield slope indicates an improving economic outlook. France and Italy also experienced an increased yield slope. The yield slope in France increased by 52bps from 0.54% to 1.06% in the same period. Meanwhile, the Italian yield slope has been in a rising trend since the beginning of March Besides the yield slope, European GDP growth also improved. GDP growth in Europe was recorded at 0.4% in the first quarter of the year, or up 0.1% from 4Q14 s growth of only 0.3%. Despite improvements in some indicators, it is still too early to tell that European QE has succeeded Dec14 7Jan15 14Jan15 21Jan15 28Jan15 4Feb15 11Feb15 18Feb15 25Feb15 4Mar15 11Mar15 18Mar15 25Mar15 1Apr15 8Apr15 15Apr15 22Apr15 29Apr15 6May15, Danareksa Estimates Germany Yield Slope Yield Slope German 2Y German 10Y France Yield Slope 31Dec14 7Jan15 14Jan15 21Jan15 28Jan15 4Feb15 11Feb15 18Feb15 25Feb15 4Mar15 11Mar15 18Mar15 25Mar15 1Apr15 8Apr15 15Apr15 22Apr15 29Apr15 6May15 Yield Slope France 2Y France 10Y Yield Slope dan Economic Growth Selain mempengaruhi nilai tukar Euro, QE juga diperkirakan mempengaruhi yield slope, atau selisih antara yield curve obligasi Pemerintah bertenor 10 dan 2tahun, di beberapa negara Eropa. Pada Exhibit 2, terlihat adanya peningkatan yield slope Jerman yang cukup signifikan sejak pertengahan April. Yield slope Jerman naik 48bps dari 34bps pada tanggal 20 April menjadi 82bps pada tanggal 11 Mei. Secara historis, peningkatan yield slope merupakan indikator akan membaiknya prospek perekonomian ke depan. Selain Jerman, Perancis dan Italia juga mengalami hal yang sama. Yield slope Perancis meningkat 52bps dari 0,54% menjadi 1,06% selama periode yang sama. Sementara itu, yield slope italia telah berada dalam tren meningkat sejak awal Maret Selain yield slope, pertumbuhan GDP Eropa juga mengalami perbaikan. Pertumbuhan GDP Eropa selama kuartal I 2015 tercatat sebesar 0,4%, atau naik 0,1% dari kuartal IV 2014 yang hanya mencapai 0,3%. Walaupun beberapa indikator memperlihatkan perbaikan, namun perlu observasi lebih lanjut untuk menyatakan bahwa QE Eropa telah berhasil Dec14 31Mar15 11May Germany Yield Curve Italy Yield Slope 31Dec14 7Jan15 14Jan15 21Jan15 28Jan15 4Feb15 11Feb15 18Feb15 25Feb15 4Mar15 11Mar15 18Mar15 25Mar15 1Apr15 8Apr15 15Apr15 22Apr15 29Apr15 6May15 Yield Slope Italy 2Y Italy 10Y 2

3 18 22 May 2015 WEEKLY REPORT APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading May 2015 Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Tenor Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Freq Yield Date Price Bn) Class 15May15 SPN Jun < 1yr 15May15 FR Jun < 1yr 15May15 SPN Jul < 1yr 12May15 SPNS Jul < 1yr 15May15 SPN Aug < 1yr 15May15 SPN Sep < 1yr 15May15 SR004 21Sep < 1yr 15May15 SPN Oct < 1yr 15May15 ORI009 15Oct < 1yr 15May15 SPN Nov < 1yr 15May15 SPN Jan < 1yr 15May15 SR005 27Feb < 1yr 15May15 SPN Mar < 1yr 12May15 VR Mar < 1yr 12May15 FR May < 1yr 15May15 PBS008 15Jun yr 5yr 13May15 FR Sep yr 5yr 15May15 ORI010 15Oct yr 5yr 15May15 SR006 5Mar , yr 5yr 12May15 FR Apr yr 5yr 15May15 FR Jul yr 5yr 15May15 ORI011 15Oct yr 5yr 15May15 SR007 11Mar , yr 5yr 15May15 FR May yr 5yr 15May15 FR Aug yr 5yr 15May15 FR Apr , yr 5yr 15May15 FR Sep yr 5yr 15May15 FR Nov yr 10yr 15May15 FR Jun yr 10yr 15May15 FR Jul yr 10yr 15May15 FR May yr 10yr 15May15 FR Jun yr 10yr 15May15 FR Jul yr 10yr 15May15 FR May yr 10yr 15May15 FR Jul yr 10yr 15May15 FR Mar , yr 10yr 15May15 FR Sep yr 10yr 15May15 FR Sep > 10yr 12May15 FR Sep > 10yr 15May15 FR May > 10yr 15May15 FR Jul > 10yr 15May15 FR May > 10yr 15May15 FR Mar , > 10yr 15May15 FR Aug > 10yr 15May15 FR Jul > 10yr 15May15 FR Jun > 10yr 15May15 FR May > 10yr 15May15 FR Mar , > 10yr 13May15 FR Jul > 10yr 13May15 FR Apr > 10yr 15May15 FR Feb > 10yr Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 3

4 18 22 May 2015 WEEKLY REPORT APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading May 2015 Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Bonds Maturity Price Bn) Yield 15May15 ADMF02ACN3 24May idaaa May15 MFIN01ACN2 13Jun ida May15 BEXI02ACN1 15Jun idaaa May15 ADMF01BCN3 27Sep idaaa May15 BWPT01 16Nov idbbb May15 ADMF02ACN4 22Nov idaaa May15 SSMM01A 30Nov ida May15 WOMF01ACN2 15Dec AA(idn) May15 PNMP01ACN1 29Dec ida May15 NISP01ACN2 20Feb idaaa May15 ASDF01BCN3 22Feb idaa May15 ADMF02CCN1 1Mar idaa May15 BEXI02ACN5 23Mar idaaa May15 BFIN02ACN2 29Mar A+(idn) May15 BBIA01A 11Apr AAA(Idn) May15 FIFA02ACN1 4May idaaa May15 IMFI01BCN2 8May ida May15 PPGD02ACN3 17May idaa May15 TAFS03B 17May AAA(idn) May15 MFIN02ACN1 18May ida May15 BEXI01BCN3 23May idaaa May15 PPGD11A 23May idaa May15 BCAF01BCN2 14Jun idaaa May15 BEXI04D 18Jun idaaa May15 JMPD12Q 6Jul idaa May15 APLN01B 25Aug ida May15 BBTN12 19Sep idaa May15 BNII01BCN1 6Dec AAA(idn) May15 ADMF01CCN1 16Dec idaaa May15 JPFA01CN1 12Jan ida May15 JPFA01CN2 1Feb A+(idn) May15 NISP01BCN2 10Feb idaaa May15 BCAF02BCN1 20Mar idaaa May15 IMFI01BCN4 22Apr ida May15 IMFI01CCN2 8May ida May15 MFIN02BCN1 8May ida May15 SMII01A 11Jun idaa May15 BNGA01SB 8Jul AA(idn) May15 PPLN09A 10Jul idaa May15 BTPN01BCN2 3Aug AA(idn) May15 APLN02 15Aug ida May15 ASDF02BCN4 29Oct AAA(Idn) May15 PNBN04SB 9Nov idaa/a+(idn) May15 MAPI01BCN1 12Dec idaa May15 ISAT01ACN1 12Dec idaaa May15 SANF01CN2 16Dec AA(idn) May15 PNMP01BCN1 19Dec ida May15 NISP01CCN2 10Feb idaaa May15 ADMF02DCN1 1Mar idaaa May15 ADHISM1CN2 15Mar ida(sy) May15 MEDC01CN2 15Mar idaa May15 PTPP01CN1 19Mar ida May15 BBIA01B 1Apr AAA(Idn) May15 WOMF01BCN3 2Apr AA(idn) May15 SIAISA01 5Apr ida(sy) May15 FIFA02BCN1 24Apr idaaa May15 AMRT01ACN2 8May AA(idn) May15 MFIN02CCN1 8May ida May15 PANR01CN2 12May ida May15 ROTI01CN1 11Jun idaa Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 4

5 18 22 May 2015 WEEKLY REPORT APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds TradingTrading May 2015 (Cont'd) Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Price Bn) Yield 12May15 ROTI01CN1 11Jun idaa May15 LTLS01CN1 19Jun ida May15 APLN01CN1 27Jun ida May15 SMRA01CN1 11Dec ida May15 SMII01B 11Jun idaa May15 INDF07 13Jun idaa May15 TAXI01 24Jun ida May15 BNII01SBCN2 31Oct idaa/aa(idn) May15 SDRA01SB 29Nov idbbb May15 APLN01CN3 19Dec ida May15 PNBN01SBCN1 20Dec idaa May15 AKRA01B 21Dec idaa May15 BVIC03SB 27Jun idbbb May15 BBTN01CN1 5Jun idaa/aa(idn) May15 ISAT08B 27Jun idaaa May15 BBMISMSB1CN1 29Jun ida(sy) May15 SIKPPLN04B 8Jul idaaa(sy) May15 BBMISMSB1CN2 28Mar ida(sy) May15 SIPPLN01BCN2 10Dec idaaa(sy) Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 5

6 18 22 May 2015 WEEKLY REPORT RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet ext Market Analyst Rifki Rizal ext Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe Ayesha Ardelia Melissa Hartono Production & Database Management Eka Nuraini ext ext ext ext Debt Capital Market Division Debt Capital Market Div. (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) / 25 Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto budisusanto@danareksa.com ext Debt Sales & Brokerage (62 21) Debt Trading & Investment Breisga Nawangsidi Romi Mulyadi breisga.nawangsidi@danareksa.com ext romi@danareksa.com ext Rina Rimawati D rina@danareksa.com ext Indra Figrachanda indraf@danareksa.com ext Putrika Mayadipta putrikam@danareksa.com Ariningtyas W. Agustina ariningtyasw@danareksa.com ext ext Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo setyohp@danareksa.com ext Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy hernitada@danareksa.com ext Tia Aprianti tia.aprianti@danareksa.com ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice 6