Exhibit 1. Indonesia & US 10Y Yield Curve Dec Jan Feb Mar-17. Source: Bloomberg;

Transkripsi

1 WEEKLY REPORT D E B T R E S E A R C H 25 JUL 2017 A Slight Gain in a Quiet Week Indonesia s Sovereign Rating S & P Moody s Fitch BBB- Baa3 BBB- Key Market Indicator as of 24-Jul-17 BI 7-Day RR Rate 4.75% JCI 5,802 IDR Inflation (y-o-y)-june % Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov t Bonds as of 21-Jul-17 IDR 1,954.8 bn Corp Bonds as of 30-Jun-17 IDR bn Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds IDR tn Corporate Bonds IDR 4.42 tn Benchmark Yield as of 24-Jul-17 FR0061 (5 year) 6.721% FR0059 (10 year) 6.905% FR0074 (15 year) 7.302% FR0072 (20 year) 7.539% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM The Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index ended last week at a level of 6.92% after it had reached 7.11% on 11 July 2017, its highest level in almost the last 2 months. The yield slipped 7bps over the week, generating a weekly return of 0.6%. As of 21 July 2017, the YTD total return of government bonds stood at 9.52%, yet far lower than the YTD total return recorded during the same period in 2016 of 16.56%. Based on changes in the yield curve, the decline was dominated by mid tenors (5 to 15 yrs) with an average decline of 7.7bps over the last week. Besides Indonesia, Government bonds in both the US and Germany also recorded gains last week. The 10Y US Treasury yield curve dropped by 9bps from 2.33% to 2.24% while the 10Y German Bund yield curve declined from 0.578% to 0.505%, or down 7bps. In the Eurozone, the ECB may wait until October before making a policy change, giving investors additional time to weigh up their response to ECB policy making. Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index menduduki level 6,92% pada pekan lalu setelah menyentuh angka 7,11% pada 11 Juli 2017, level tertinggi selama hampir 2 bulan terakhir. Yield mengalami penurunan 7bps selama minggu lalu, menghasilkan weekly return sebesar 0,6%. Per 21 juli 2017, obligasi pemerintah mencatatkan return sebesar 9,52% ytd, jauh lebih rendah dibandingkan ytd return periode yang sama pada tahun 2016 yang sebesar 16,56%. Berdasarkan perubahan pada yield curve, penurunan didominasi oleh tenor jangka menengah (5 15 tahun) dengan rata-rata penurunan sebesar 7,7bps selama minggu lalu. Selain Indonesia, obligasi Pemerintah Amerika dan Jerman juga mencatatkan gain pada minggu lalu. Yield curve 10Y US Treasury mengalami penurunan sebesar 9bps dari 2,33% menjadi 2,24%, sementara 10Y German Bund yield curve mengalami penurunan dari 0,578% menjadi 0,505%, atau turun sebesar 7bps. Di Eurozone, ECB kemungkinan akan menunggu hingga Oktober sebelum melakukan perubahan kebijakan, memberikan investor waktu untuk menentukan strategi dalam menghadapi kebijakan EBC. Government Bond Indices as of 24-Jul-17 Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 6.92% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) Calendar of Event 26-Jul-17 UK GDP Chained GDP at Market s YoY (Survey : 1.7% Prior : 2.0%) 27-Jul-17 US Initial Jobless Claims SA (Survey : 240k; Prior : 233k) 27-Jul-17 Japan Unemployment Rate SA (Survey :3.0%; Prior : 3.1%) Exhibit 1. Indonesia & US 10Y Yield Curve 2.70 UST 10Y Yield Indonesia 10Y Yield Dec-16 6-Jan Jan Jan Jan-17 3-Feb Feb Feb Feb-17 3-Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar-17 7-Apr Apr Apr Apr-17 5-May May May May-17 2-Jun-17 9-Jun Jun Jun Jun-17 7-Jul Jul Jul-17 Source: Bloomberg; Analysts Rifki Rizal (62 21) ext rifkir@danareksa.com Amir A. Dalimunthe (62 21) ext amirda@danareksa.com Please read important disclosure at the back of this report Getting back on track Demand from global investors for Indonesian government bonds found a new lease of life last week. Foreign investors recorded net buying of rupiah denominated bonds to the tune of IDR9.69 trillion after they were net sellers of IDR8.61 trillion of sovereign debts in the previous two weeks. On the currency front, the USD/IDR strengthened by 0.19% to IDR13,313 per USD in the same period. As of 21 July 2017, foreign holdings of government bonds stood at IDR771.6 trillion (39.5% of the total outstanding), or up by IDR110.3 trillion from its position at the end of Kembalinya demand Minat investor global terhadap obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia kembali meningkat pada minggu lalu. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy terhadap obligasi berdenominasi rupiah sebesar Rp9,69 triliun setelah mencatatkan net sellers sebesar Rp8,61 triliun sovereign debts pada dua minggu sebelumnya. Sedangkan nilai tukar IDR terhadap USD mengalami penguatan sebesar 0,19% menjadi Rp per USD dalam periode yang sama. Per 21 Juli 2017, pemegang asing obligasi Pemerintah adalah sebesar Rp771,6 triliun (39,5% dari total outstanding), atau mengalami peningkatan sebesar Rp110,3 triliun dari posisi akhir tahun Bloomberg Ticker: DFMJ

2 Weaker secondary market activity Secondary market activity in the Indonesian bonds market weakened last week. The total trading in gov t bonds reached IDR64.2 trillion during the week, or down by IDR14.6 trillion compared to trading in the previous week. Meanwhile, the total trading in corporate bonds stood at IDR4.4 trillion. It was dominated by trading in AAA-rated corporate bonds which accounted for 33.4% of the total trading. Aktivitas pasar sekunder lebih sedikit Aktivitas pasar sekunder obligasi di Indonesia melemah selama minggu lalu. Total perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah mencapai Rp64,2 triliun dalam seminggu, atau turun Rp14,6 triliun dibandingkan perdagangan minggu sebelumnya. Sementara itu, total perdagangan obligasi korporasi tercatat sebesar Rp4,4 triliun. Perdagangan obligasi korporasi tersebut didominasi obligasi korporasi dengan peringkat AAA atau sebesar 33,4% dari total. Exhibit 2. Foreign Holdings on IDR Govt Bonds Proportion (%) Foreign Ownership (IDRtn) 40.0% 39.5% 39.0% 38.5% 38.0% 37.5% 37.0% Dec-16 6-Jan Jan Jan Jan-17 3-Feb Feb Feb Feb-17 3-Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar-17 7-Apr Apr Apr Apr-17 5-May May May May-17 2-Jun-17 9-Jun Jun Jun Jun-17 7-Jul Jul Jul % Source: Danareksa Estimates 2

3 Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading July 2017 Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Last Freq Vol Yield Tenor Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Class Duration 21-Jul-17 SPN Aug < 1yr - 21-Jul-17 SPNS Aug , < 1yr - 21-Jul-17 SPN Aug < 1yr - 21-Jul-17 SPN Sep , < 1yr - 21-Jul-17 SPNS Oct < 1yr - 18-Jul-17 SPN Oct < 1yr - 21-Jul-17 ORI Oct < 1yr - 18-Jul-17 SPNS Nov < 1yr - 20-Jul-17 SPN Jan < 1yr - 21-Jul-17 PBS Jan < 1yr Jul-17 SPN Feb < 1yr - 17-Jul-17 SPN Mar < 1yr - 21-Jul-17 SR Mar , < 1yr - 21-Jul-17 SPN Apr < 1yr - 19-Jul-17 SPN May < 1yr - 21-Jul-17 FR May < 1yr Jul-17 SPN Jun < 1yr - 19-Jul-17 SPN Jul < 1yr - 19-Jul-17 FR Aug yr - 5yr Jul-17 FR Sep yr - 5yr Jul-17 ORI Oct , yr - 5yr - 21-Jul-17 SR Mar yr - 5yr - 21-Jul-17 FR Apr , yr - 5yr Jul-17 PBS May , yr - 5yr Jul-17 FR Sep yr - 5yr Jul-17 ORI Oct yr - 5yr - 21-Jul-17 SR Mar yr - 5yr - 18-Jul-17 VR Jul yr - 5yr Jul-17 PBS Sep yr - 5yr Jul-17 FR Nov yr - 5yr Jul-17 PBS May yr - 5yr Jul-17 FR Jun yr - 5yr Jul-17 FR Jul , yr - 5yr Jul-17 FR May , yr - 5yr Jul-17 FR Jun yr - 5yr Jul-17 FR Jul yr - 5yr Jul-17 FR May , yr - 10yr Jul-17 FR Jul yr - 10yr Jul-17 PBS Aug yr - 10yr Jul-17 FR Mar , yr - 10yr Jul-17 FR Sep yr - 10yr Jul-17 FR Sep yr - 10yr Jul-17 FR Sep , yr - 10yr Jul-17 PBS Jan yr - 10yr Jul-17 FR May , yr - 10yr

4 Appendix 2. Government Bonds Trading July 2017 (cont d) Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Last Freq Vol Yield Tenor Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Class Duration 21-Jul-17 FR Jul yr - 10yr Jul-17 FR Feb > 10yr Jul-17 FR May , > 10yr Jul-17 FR Mar , > 10yr Jul-17 FR Aug , > 10yr Jul-17 FR May , > 10yr Jul-17 FR Jul , > 10yr Jul-17 PBS Nov > 10yr Jul-17 FR Jun > 10yr Jul-17 FR Aug , > 10yr Jul-17 FR May > 10yr Jul-17 FR Mar , > 10yr Jul-17 FR May , > 10yr Jul-17 PBS Feb > 10yr Jul-17 FR Jul > 10yr Jul-17 FR May > 10yr Jul-17 FR Apr > 10yr Jul-17 PBS Apr > 10yr Jul-17 FR Feb > 10yr

5 Appendix 3. Corporate Bonds Trading July 2017 Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration 20-Jul-17 SIISAT01ACN4 12-Sep idaaa Jul-17 FIFA02ACN4 7-Oct idaaa Jul-17 TELE01ACN2 24-Oct ida Jul-17 ASDF03ACN2 28-Oct idaaa Jul-17 ASDF02BCN4 29-Oct idaaa Jul-17 BNGA01BCN1 30-Oct idaaa Jul-17 SSIA01B 6-Nov ida Jul-17 PNBN04SB 9-Nov idaa Jul-17 BBRI02ACN1 6-Dec idaaa Jul-17 SIISAT01ACN1 12-Dec idaaa Jul-17 SIAGII02 18-Dec A-(idn) Jul-17 NISP01CCN2 10-Feb idaaa Jul-17 MEDC01CN2 15-Mar idaa Jul-17 ADHISM1CN2 15-Mar ida Jul-17 WOMF01BCN3 2-Apr AA(idn) Jul-17 SIAISA01 5-Apr ida Jul-17 SANF02ACN2 10-Apr AA(idn) Jul-17 IMFI01CCN4 22-Apr ida Jul-17 FIFA02BCN1 24-Apr idaaa Jul-17 PPGD02BCN3 7-May idaa Jul-17 ISAT01BCN2 4-Jun idaaa Jul-17 SIISAT02ACN1 10-Jun idaaa Jul-17 TAFS01BCN2 11-Jun idaa Jul-17 LTLS01CN1 19-Jun ida Jul-17 APLN01CN1 27-Jun ida Jul-17 BNLI02SB 28-Jun idaa Jul-17 ADMF03ACN1 30-Jun idaaa Jul-17 TELE01ACN3 2-Jul ida Jul-17 PPNX01 5-Jul ida Jul-17 MDLN01ACN1 7-Jul ida Jul-17 PANR01CN1 9-Jul ida Jul-17 PPGD10BXBVTW 11-Jul idaa Jul-17 CSUL01A 21-Jul ida Jul-17 ADMF03ACN6 24-Jul idaaa Jul-17 ADMF03BCN2 25-Aug idaaa Jul-17 FIFA02BCN2 11-Sep idaaa Jul-17 ADMF02CCN2 24-Oct idaaa Jul-17 SIEXCL01BCN1 2-Dec idaaa Jul-17 SISMRA01CN1 11-Dec ida Jul-17 SMRA01CN1 11-Dec ida Jul-17 TUFI02ACN1 18-Dec idaa Jul-17 BEXI01CCN1 20-Dec idaaa Jul-17 BBRI01BCN2 4-Feb idaaa Jul-17 BBKP01SBCN1 6-Mar ida Jul-17 IMFI02BCN3 16-Mar ida Jul-17 BBRI01BCN3 25-May idaaa Jul-17 PIGN01A 21-Jun idaa Jul-17 ISAT08A 27-Jun idaaa Jul-17 BVIC02SB 27-Jun ida

6 Appendix 4. Corporate Bonds Trading July 2017 (cont d) Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration 19-Jul-17 IIFF01A 19-Jul idaaa Jul-17 FIFA02BCN4 27-Sep idaaa Jul-17 ASDF03BCN2 18-Oct idaaa Jul-17 BIIF01ACN3 3-Nov AA+(idn) Jul-17 PNMP01ACN2 3-Nov ida Jul-17 IMFI02CCN2 16-Nov ida Jul-17 PRTL01ACN1 23-Nov AA-(idn) Jul-17 JPFA02ACN1 1-Dec ida Jul-17 IMPC01A 2-Dec ida Jul-17 PNBN01SBCN1 20-Dec idaa Jul-17 TAFS02BCN2 14-Feb idaa Jul-17 BEXI03BCN4 23-Feb idaaa Jul-17 ADHI01BCN2 15-Mar ida Jul-17 IMFI02CCN3 16-Mar ida Jul-17 MEDC02ACN4 30-Mar idaa Jul-17 TBIG02CN2 21-Apr AA-(idn) Jul-17 SIEXCL01BCN2 28-Apr idaaa Jul-17 AMRT02CN1 23-May AA-(idn) Jul-17 ISAT01CCN2 4-Jun idaaa Jul-17 SIAGII01ACN1 6-Jun A-(idn) Jul-17 TELE01BCN3 22-Jun ida Jul-17 BVIC03SB 27-Jun idbbb Jul-17 BBRI01CCN1 3-Jul idaaa Jul-17 IMFI03BCN1 7-Jul ida Jul-17 PPGD02DCN1 9-Jul idaa Jul-17 BMTP01A 11-Jul AAA(idn) Jul-17 PNMP02ACN1 12-Jul ida Jul-17 PIHC01ACN1 12-Jul AAA(idn) Jul-17 SMRA02CN1 16-Dec ida Jul-17 BNGA02SB 23-Dec AA(idn) Jul-17 BBRI01CCN2 4-Feb idaaa Jul-17 BEXI02CCN7 19-Feb idaaa Jul-17 BBRI01CCN3 25-May idaaa Jul-17 APIA01A 30-Jun idaaa Jul-17 BEXI03CCN2 25-Aug idaaa Jul-17 BBTN02BCN2 30-Aug idaa Jul-17 SSIA01BCN1 22-Sep ida Jul-17 BMRI01ACN1 30-Sep idaaa Jul-17 TELE01CCN2 14-Oct ida Jul-17 BBRI02CCN1 1-Dec idaaa Jul-17 IMPC01B 2-Dec ida Jul-17 ISAT01CCN1 12-Dec idaaa Jul-17 ASDF03CCN3 3-Mar idaaa Jul-17 INDF08 26-May idaa Jul-17 OTMA01C 30-May idaa Jul-17 ISAT01DCN2 4-Jun idaaa Jul-17 BBTN01CN1 5-Jun idaa Jul-17 SIAGII01BCN1 6-Jun A-(idn) Jul-17 SMGR01CN1 20-Jun idaa Jul-17 BBKP02SBCN1 30-Jun ida

7 Appendix 5. Corporate Bonds Trading July 2017 (cont d) Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration 21-Jul-17 BLAM04 7-Jul A(idn) Jul-17 BMTR01ACN1 7-Jul ida Jul-17 AGRO01B 7-Jul idaa Jul-17 BBTN02CCN1 8-Jul idaa Jul-17 PPLN09B 10-Jul idaaa Jul-17 BBNI01CN1 11-Jul idaaa Jul-17 BMTP01B 11-Jul AA(idn) Jul-17 BBTN03BCN1 13-Jul idaa Jul-17 BACA02SB 15-Jan idbbb Jul-17 PIGN01C 21-Jun idaa Jul-17 APIA01B 30-Jun idaaa Jul-17 BMRI01BCN1 30-Sep idaaa Jul-17 SMBRIS01SB 16-Nov A+(idn) Jul-17 SIPPLN01BCN2 10-Dec idaaa Jul-17 BBKP02SBCN2 28-Feb ida Jul-17 BVIC01SBCN1 11-Jul idbbb Jul-17 TLKM01BCN1 23-Jun idaaa Jul-17 PIGN01D 21-Jun idaa Jul-17 APIA01C 30-Jun idaaa Jul-17 BMRI01CCN1 30-Sep idaaa Jul-17 APAI01C 22-Nov idaaa

8 Director of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto ext FIXED INCOME TEAM Telp No Fax No DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Head of Debt Research (ad interim) Market Analyst Amir A. Dalimunthe Rifki Rizal ext ext Credit Analysts Production & Database Management Ayesha Ardelia Eka Nuraini ext ext Arif Sentanu ext Laras Nerpatari Suilyas ext DEBT CAPITAL MARKET TEAM Telp No Fax No /25 Debt Sales & Brokerage Debt Trading & Investment Setyo H. Purnomo Romi Mulyadi ext ext Rina Rimawati D Indra Figrachanda rina@danareksa.com ext indraf@danareksa.com ext Putrika Mayadipta Rachmat Eko Putranto putrikam@danareksa.com ext rachmat.putranto@danareksa.com ext Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy hernitada@danareksa.com ext Citra Isramij P. citra.isramij@danareksa.com ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. 8