Domestic Bonds Remain Attractive to Investors

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1 WEEKLY REPORT D E B T R E S E A R C H 29 APRIL 2014 Indonesia FCLT Rating S & P Moody s Fitch BB+ Baa3 BBB- Key Market Indicator as of 21-Apr-14 BI Rate 7.50% JCI 4,886 IDR Inflation (y-o-y)-mar % Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov t Bonds as of 22-Apr-14 IDR 1,08.8 bn Corp Bonds as of Mar-14 IDR bn Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds IDR tn Corporate Bonds IDR 2.01 tn Benchmark Yield as of 28-Apr-14 FR0069 (5 year) 7.526% FR0070 (10 year) 7.850% FR0071 (15 year) 8.298% FR0068 (20 year) 8.455% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM Government Bond Indices as of 28-Apr-14 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 8.00% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) Calendar of Event 30-Apr-14 Germany Unemployment Rate (Survey : 6.7%A; Prior : 6.7%) 1-May-14 Federal Funds Target Rate (Survey : 0.25%; Prior : 0.25%) Domestic Bonds Remain Attractive to Investors The Government bonds yield index was rather flat in April As of April 28th, 2014, the yield index stood at 7.99%, or down just 9bps from its level at the end of March 2014, showing a month-to-date positive return of 1.26%. Over the same period, stocks performed slightly better than Government bonds. In the month up to April 28th, 2014, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) climbed 117 points, or up 2.46%, to 4,885. The highest level of the JCI so far this year was reached on 8 April 2014 at 4,921, whilst, on the same day, the bonds yield stood at 7.915%. Exhibit 1. Gov t Bonds Yield Index & Jakarta Composite Index 9.2% 9.0% 8.8% 8.6% 8.4% 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 2-Dec-13 6-Dec Dec Dec Dec-13 3-Jan-14 9-Jan Jan Jan Jan-14 Source : Bloomberg, Danarekas Estimates 4-Feb Feb-14 Yield Index 14-Feb-14 Indeks yield obligasi Pemerintah cenderung bergerak mendatar selama bulan April Per 28 April 2014, indeks yield berada di level 7,99%, atau menurun 9bps dari akhir Maret 2014, dan mencatatkan month-to-date return positif sebesar 1,26%. Pada periode yang sama, performa saham mencatatkan return yang sedikit lebih baik dibandingkan dengan obligasi Pemerintah. Indeks harga saham Indonesia (JCI) mengalami peningkatan sebesar 117 poin, atau meningkat 2,46% menjadi 4,885 per 28 April Indeks saham maupun indeks obligasi Pemerintah mencapai performa terbaik selama tahun 2014 pada tanggal 8 April 2014 dimana indeks saham tercatat sebesar 4,921 sedangkan indeks yield berada di level 7,915%. 20-Feb Feb-14 4-Mar-14 JCI Index 10-Mar Mar Mar Mar-14 2-Apr-14 8-Apr Apr Apr Apr-14 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 2-May-14 Bank Indonesia Consumer Confidence Index (Survey : NA; Prior : 118.2) Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe (62 21) ext amirda@danareksa.com Rifki Rizal (62 21) ext rifkir@danareksa.com Foreign investors and Bank Indonesia increase their Government bond holdings As of April 22nd, 2014, foreign investors held IDR trillion of Government bonds, or 34.25% of the total Government bonds outstanding of IDR1,088.8 trillion. In nominal terms, this is a record high for foreign investor holdings of Government bonds. During the period from late March until April 22nd, 2014, foreign investors have increased their holdings in Government bonds by IDR11.98 trillion. Besides foreign investors, Bank Indonesia also ramped up its holdings of Government bonds, increasing them from IDR30.44 trillion at the end of March to IDR trillion as of April 22nd, 2014 (up 31.47%). By contrast, however, domestic banks Government bond holdings only increased slightly by IDR650 billion in the same period. Investor asing dan Bank Indonesia meningkatkan kepemilikannya di obligasi Pemerintah Per 22 April 2014, investor asing telah mendominasi kepemilikan SBN dengan persentase sebesar 34,25% atau Rp372,89 triliun dari total outstanding sebesar Rp1,088.8 triliun. Secara nominal, angka itu merupakan kepemilikan tertinggi investor asing sepanjang sejarah. Selama periode dari akhir Maret hingga 22 April 2014, investor asing telah meningkatkan Rp11,98 triliun kepemilikannya terhadap obligasi Pemerintah. Selain investor asing, kepemilikan Bank Indonesia terhadap SBN juga meningkat signifikan dari Rp30,44 triliun di akhir Maret, menjadi Rp40,02 triliun per 22 April, atau dengan kata lain meningkat hingga 31,47%. Berbeda dengan investor asing maupun BI, bank domestik hanya mencatatkan penambahan sebesar Rp650 miliar dalam periode yang sama. Please read important disclosure at the back of this report Bloomberg Ticker: DFMJ

2 Exhibit 2. IDR Government Bond s Holder Jan-14 7-Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan-14 4-Feb-14 7-Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb-14 5-Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar-14 1-Apr-14 4-Apr Apr Apr Apr-14 Source : Bloomberg, MoF RR-BI (RHS) BI (RHS) Domestic Bank Foreign Investors Greater demand for mid- and short-term Government bonds Total trading in Government bonds increased by IDR13.83 trillion last week to IDR40.64 trillion. The total trading in corporate bonds, meanwhile, reached Rp2.91 trillion last week, up IDR billion from the previous week. Last week s Government bond trading was dominated by medium and short tenors at % and % of the total trading, respectively, while trading in long tenors only accounted for % of the total trading or equivalent to Rp7.05 trillion. Based on changes in the yield curve, yields declined for tenors under 5 years, whereas yields on the other tenors increased. Two-year corporate bonds were the most attractive bonds last week with trading reaching IDR1.57 trillion or accounting for 54% of the total trading in corporate bonds. By sector, trading in multi finance bonds was very brisk, accounting for 63.6% of last week s corporate bonds trading. Permintaan tinggi untuk tenor menengah dan pendek Total perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah selama minggu lalu meningkat Rp13,83 triliun menjadi Rp40,64 triliun. Sementara itu, total perdagangan obligasi korporasi minggu lalu mencapai Rp2,91 triliun, atau meningkat Rp822,44 miliar dari minggu sebelumnya. Perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah selama minggu terakhir di dominasi oleh tenor menengah dan pendek masing-masing sebesar 42,12% dan 40,53%, sedangkan sisanya dimiliki oleh tenor panjang sebesar Rp7,05 triliun atau 17,35%. Berdasarkan perubahan yield curve selama minggu lalu, penurunan yield terjadi untuk tenor di bawah 5 tahun, sedangkan untuk tenor lainnya mengalami peningkatan. Obligasi korporasi dengan tenor 2-tahun menjadi obligasi yang paling diminati selama minggu lalu dengan volume perdagangan sebesar Rp1,57 triliun atau mendominasi 54% dari total perdagangan obligasi korporasi. Berdasarkan sektor, obligasi multifinance mendominasi perdagangan minggu lalu dengan persentase sebesar 63,6%. Exhibit 3. Corp Bonds Trading by Tenor Exhibit 4. Corp Bonds Trading by Sector Term to Maturity Source : IDX Processed Data Financial Company 63.6% Source : IDX Processed Data Banking 15.2% Infrastructure 9.0% Consumer Goods 5.4% Others 3.4% Mining Oil & Natural Gas 3.5% 2

3 Exhibit 5. Daily Trading Volume Govt Short Govt Med Govt Long Corp 14 Exhibit 6. Yield Curve Change from 17 to 25 April % % % 0.04% 0.03% 0.02% 0.01% % -0.01% Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr-14 Source : IDX Processed Data 22-Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr % -0.03% Term to Maturity Source : Danareksa Estimates 3

4 APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading April 2014 Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Last Freq Vol Yield Tenor Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Class Duration Price 23-Apr-14 SPN May < 1yr Apr-14 SPN May < 1yr Apr-14 FR May < 1yr Apr-14 SPN Jun < 1yr Apr-14 SPN Jul < 1yr Apr-14 SPN Jul < 1yr Apr-14 SPN Jul < 1yr Apr-14 SPN Sep , < 1yr Apr-14 SPNS Oct < 1yr Apr-14 FR Oct < 1yr Apr-14 ORI Oct < 1yr Apr-14 VR Dec < 1yr Apr-14 SPN Jan < 1yr Apr-14 VR Apr < 1yr Apr-14 FR Jun yr - 5yr Apr-14 SR Sep yr - 5yr Apr-14 ORI Oct yr - 5yr Apr-14 SR Feb yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR May yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR Sep yr - 5yr Apr-14 ORI Oct yr - 5yr Apr-14 SR006 5-Mar , yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR Apr yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR Jul yr - 5yr Apr-14 PBS Feb yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR May , yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR Sep yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR Apr , yr - 5yr Apr-14 FR Sep yr - 10yr Apr-14 IFR Mar yr - 10yr Apr-14 FR Nov yr - 10yr Apr-14 FR Jun yr - 10yr Apr-14 FR Jul , yr - 10yr Apr-14 FR May , yr - 10yr Apr-14 FR Jun yr - 10yr Apr-14 FR Jul yr - 10yr Apr-14 FR May yr - 10yr Apr-14 FR Jul yr - 10yr Apr-14 FR Mar , yr - 10yr Apr-14 FR Sep > 10yr Apr-14 FR Sep > 10yr Apr-14 FR Sep > 10yr Apr-14 FR May > 10yr Apr-14 FR Jul > 10yr Apr-14 FR Feb > 10yr Apr-14 FR May > 10yr Apr-14 FR Mar , > 10yr Apr-14 FR Aug > 10yr Apr-14 FR Jul > 10yr Apr-14 FR Jun > 10yr Apr-14 FR May > 10yr Apr-14 FR Mar , > 10yr Apr-14 PBS Feb > 10yr Apr-14 FR Jul Apr-14 FR May Apr-14 FR Apr Apr-14 PBS Apr Sumber: Danareksa, BEI 4

5 APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading April 2014 Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration Price 21-Apr-14 BCAF01BCN1 9-May idaa+/aa+(idn) Apr-14 TUFI06C 19-May ida Apr-14 TAFS03A 27-May AAA(idn) Apr-14 IMFI04B 9-Jun ida Apr-14 BEXI04C 18-Jun AAA Apr-14 PPGD13A1 1-Jul AA Apr-14 TAFS01C 7-Jul idaa Apr-14 APLN01A 25-Aug ida Apr-14 PNBN04 6-Oct AA Apr-14 SOFN04D 28-Oct idaa Apr-14 ADMF04E 29-Oct idaa Apr-14 ADMF02ACN2 3-Nov idaa Apr-14 SIMP01 1-Dec AA Apr-14 BNII01ACN1 6-Dec AAA(idn) Apr-14 ADMF01BCN1 16-Dec idaa Apr-14 BBRI02 22-Dec AA Apr-14 BNLI01ACN1 3-Jan idaa Apr-14 SANF02C 20-Jan idaa Apr-14 ASDF01BCN1 21-Feb idaa Apr-14 WOMF05D 4-Mar AA(idn) Apr-14 AIRJ01C 13-Mar A(idn) Apr-14 FIFA01ACN3 24-Mar idaa Apr-14 BSLT04 9-Apr ida Apr-14 ASDF02ACN3 14-Apr AAA(Idn) Apr-14 STTP01ACN1 18-Apr ida Apr-14 FIFA01CCN1 20-Apr idaa Apr-14 SMFP01BCN2 25-Apr AA(idn) Apr-14 IMFI01BCN1 11-May ida Apr-14 TAFS02B 5-Jun idaa/aaa(idn) Apr-14 BIIF01B 7-Jun AA+(idn) Apr-14 PPLN12A 8-Jul idaa Apr-14 BEXI05C 8-Jul idaaa Apr-14 BTPN01ACN2 3-Aug AA-(idn) Apr-14 PNBN05 9-Nov idaa/aa(idn) Apr-14 BWPT01 16-Nov ida Apr-14 BNGA01ACN2 20-Nov idaaa Apr-14 NISP01CCN1 19-Feb idaaa/aaa(idn) Apr-14 FIFA01BCN2 4-Apr idaa+/aaa(idn) Apr-14 TAFS03B 17-May AAA(idn) Apr-14 APLN01B 25-Aug ida Apr-14 BBTN12 19-Sep idaa Apr-14 JSMR01BCN1S 27-Sep idaa Apr-14 ASDF02BCN2 26-Nov idaa+/aaa(idn) Apr-14 ISAT07B 8-Dec AA Apr-14 TBIG01BCN1 12-Dec AA-(idn) Apr-14 BNGA01B 23-Dec idaaa Apr-14 JPFA01CN1 12-Jan ida Apr-14 PPLN11A 12-Jan idaa Apr-14 PPGD01CCN2 14-Feb idaa Apr-14 BFIN02CCN1 7-Mar ida Sumber: Danareksa, BEI 5

6 APPENDICES Appendix 3. Corporate Bonds Trading April 2014 (cont d) Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration Price 23-Apr-14 FIFA01BCN3 14-Mar idaa Apr-14 ASDF02BCN3 4-Apr AAA(Idn) Apr-14 IMFI01BCN4 22-Apr ida Apr-14 SMFP01CCN2 25-Apr AA(idn) Apr-14 SMKMYOR02 9-May idaa-(sy) Apr-14 MEDC03 19-Jun idaa Apr-14 JMPD13R 21-Jun idaa Apr-14 APLN02 15-Aug ida Apr-14 BNGA01BCN1 30-Oct IdAAA/AAA(idn) Apr-14 SISSMM01 30-Nov ida(sy) Apr-14 SISSMM01 30-Nov ida(sy) Apr-14 SIAGII02 18-Dec A-(idn) Apr-14 MEDC01CN2 15-Mar idaa Apr-14 AISA01 5-Apr ida Apr-14 BNII01SB 19-May idaa Apr-14 APLN01CN1 27-Jun ida Apr-14 PPGD10BXBVTW 11-Jul idaa Apr-14 JSMR01CCN1S 27-Sep idaa Apr-14 DART01CN1 8-Oct ida Apr-14 BNGA01CCN2 20-Nov idaaa Apr-14 BNII01SBCN1 6-Dec AA-(idn) Apr-14 PPLN01ACN2 10-Dec idaaa Apr-14 SMRA01CN1 11-Dec ida Apr-14 ANTM01ACN1 14-Dec idaa Apr-14 BBKP01SBCN1 6-Mar ida Apr-14 MYOR04 9-May idaa Apr-14 BNII01SBCN2 31-Oct idaa/aa(idn) Apr-14 BNLI01SBCN2 19-Dec idaa Apr-14 PNBN01SBCN1 20-Dec idaa Apr-14 AKRA01B 21-Dec idaa Apr-14 BVIC03SB 27-Jun idbbb Apr-14 BBMISMSB1CN1 29-Jun ida Apr-14 SIKBLTA02B 31-Mar A Sumber: Danareksa, BEI 6

7 RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet ext Credit Analyst Production & Database Management Amir A. Dalimunthe Eka Nuraini ext ext Ayesha Ardelia ext Market Analyst Melissa Hartono Rifki Rizal ext ext Debt Capital Market Division Debt Capital Market Div. (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) /25 Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto ext Debt Sales & Brokerage (62 21) Debt Trading & Investment Rina Rimawati D Romi Mulyadi rina@danareksa.com ext romi@danareksa.com ext Agung Suprihanto agungs@danareksa.com ext Putrika Mayadipta putrikam@danareksa.com ext Ariningtyas W. Agustina ariningtyasw@danareksa.com ext Product & Retail Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy Setyo H. Purnomo hernitada@danareksa.com ext setyohp@danareksa.com ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice 7