(Yet Another) Trade Deficit Recorded

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1 WEEKLY REPORT D E B T RESEARCH 4 NOVEMBER - 8 NOVEMBER 2013 Country's FCLT Rating S & P Moody's Fitch BB+ Baa3 BBB- Key Market Indicator as of 0 BI Rate 7.25% JCI Index 4,433 IDR 11,335 Inflation(y-o-y) - Oct % Market Outstanding as of 0 Government Bond Corporate Bond Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bond Corporate Bond Government Bond Indices as of 0 Price Index Yield Index 7.72% Total Return Benchmark Yield as of 0 FR0066 (5 year) 7.048% FR0063 (10 year) 7.667% FR0064 (15 year) 8.092% FR0065 (20 year) 8.226% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM Calendar of Event 6-Nov-13 Indonesia GDP YoY (Survey : 5.7%; Prior : 5.81%) 7-Nov-13 US Initial Jobless Claims (Survey : 335K; Prior : 340K) 8-Nov-13 Germany Current Account EUR (Survey : 15B; Prior : 9.4B) Analysts Rifki Rizal ext 3404 rifkir@danareksa.com Amir A. Dalimunthe ext.3405 amirda@danareksa.com Please read important disclosure at the back of this report IDR tn IDR tn IDR 34.38tn IDR 0.28tn (Yet Another) Trade Deficit Recorded October s inflation rate only reached 0.09%. This brought the year-on-year inflation rate up to 8.32%. The low inflation rate may create positive sentiment in the bonds market, although a number of other factors such as the weak rupiah and the trade deficit may cast a shadow over the market. The rupiah weakened throughout last week yet with lower volatility. On the trade front, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD657 million in September % 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% USD Million 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%, Danareksa Estimate MoM and YoY Inflation Inflation MoM Rupiah & Monthly Trade Balance Yield on Government Bond 10-year & BI Rate Inflasi bulan Oktober hanya mencapai 0,09%, sedangkan inflasi tahunan sebesar 8,32%. Nilai inflasi yang rendah dapat menjadi sentimen postif di pasar obligasi, namun beberapa faktor lain seperti nilai rupiah dan trade balance masih menjadi hambatan di pasar obligasi. Nilai rupiah melemah secara konsisten sepanjang minggu lalu namun dengan tingkat volatilitas yang cenderung rendah, sedangkan trade balance untuk bulan September 2013 mengalami defisit sebesar USD657 juta. Inflation YoY (RHS) 1-Jan-11 1-Mar-11 1-May-11 1-Jul-11 1-Sep-11 1-Nov-11 1-Jan-12 1-Mar-12 1-May-12 1-Jul-12 1-Sep-12 1-Nov-12 1-Jan-13 1-Mar-13 1-May-13 1-Jul-13 1-Sep-13 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000-3,000 3-Jan-11 3-Mar-11 3-May-11 3-Jul-11 3-Sep-11 3-Nov-11 3-Jan-12 3-Mar-12 3-May-12 3-Jul-12 3-Sep-12 3-Nov-12 3-Jan-13 3-Mar-13 3-May-13 3-Jul-13 3-Sep-13 Trade Balance The unchanged BI rate at 7.25% was one factor pushing up yields last week. Bond yields rose after the yield spread between the 10-year government bond and the BI rate became negative (i.e. the 10-year yield was below the BI rate). Thus, it seems likely that as long as the BI rate stands at 7.25%, then the 10-year bond yield will move around 7.25% % at the end of year. IDR (RHS) Spread (RHS) FR-10Y BI Rate 3-Jan-11 3-Mar-11 3-May-11 3-Jul-11 3-Sep-11 3-Nov-11 3-Jan-12 3-Mar-12 3-May-12 3-Jul-12 3-Sep-12 3-Nov-12 3-Jan-13 3-Mar-13 3-May-13 3-Jul-13 3-Sep % 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 Nilai BI rate yang berada di 7,25% menjadi salah satu faktor meningkatnya yield. Yield obligasi meningkat setelah spread antara yield 10-tahundenganBIrate bernilai negatif, atau yield 10-tahun berada di bawah BI rate. Dengan kata lain, selama BI rate berada di level 7,25%, yield obligasi 10-tahun akan bergerak di sekitar 7,25% - 7,75% akhir tahun. 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0%

2 MACROECONOMICS CONDITION The Rupiah Weakened The Yield Index climbed 52bps last week to 7.72%, a two-week high. SUN holdings by both foreigners and Bank Indonesia were up over the week as of October 31. Foreign investors increased their holdings by IDR3.13 trillion to IDR318.1 trillion, while BI holdings stood at IDR48.25 trillion. By contrast, domestic bank holdings were down by IDR9.89 trillion to IDR trillion. On the currency front, the rupiah weakened 2.91% over the week to Rp11,335 per USD on lower volatility. Total trading in corporate bonds reached Rp2.39 trillion last week and was dominated by bonds with tenors of less than 1 year amounting to 43.6% of the total trading. Yield indeks naik 52bps sepanjang minggu lalu dan ditutup pada level 7,72%, tertinggi selama 2 pekan terakhir. Kepemilikan asing dan Bank Indonesia dalam SUN per tanggal 31 Oktober naik dari minggu sebelumnya. Investor asing menambah Rp3,13 triliun kepemilikannya menjadi Rp318,1 triliun, sedangkan kepemilkan BI mencapai Rp48,25 triliun. Sementara itu kepemilikan bank domestik turun Rp9,89 triliun menjadi Rp322,35 triliun. Rupiah melemah sepanjang minggu lalu dengan volatilitas yang rendah. Rupiah menutup minggu lalu dengan pelemahan 2,91% dari minggu sebelumnya menjadi Rp per US$. Total volume perdagangan obligasi korporasi minggu lalu mencapai Rp2,39 triliun dengan obligasi bertenor kurang dari 1 tahun mendominasi 43,6% perdagangan minggu lalu. Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg IDR trillion Source: Ministry of Finance Yield Index 31-Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug-13 2-Sep-13 5-Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep-13 1-Oct-13 4-Oct-13 9-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Yield Index (LHS) Inflation Domestic Bank Increased Their SUN Ownership 31-Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug-13 2-Sep-13 5-Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep-13 1-Oct-13 4-Oct-13 9-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct-13 Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor BI Rate Inflation Forecast 9.00% 8.75% 8.50% 8.25% 8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00% 6.75% 6.50% 6.25% RR-BI (RHS) BI (RHS) Domestic Bank Foreign Investors IDR trillion 15-Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug-13 CDS 5-Year (bps) 4-Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep-13 2-Oct-13 8-Oct Oct-13 Rupiah closed at Rp11,335 per USD 12-Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug-13 2-Sep-13 5-Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep-13 1-Oct-13 4-Oct-13 9-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct-13 Corporate Bonds Trading by Sector 22-Oct Oct Indonesia Philipinnes Brazil Turkey 11,700 11,400 11,100 10,800 10,500 10,200 IDR trillion Banking 29.73% Telecommuni cation 8.08% Mining Oil & Natural Gas 6.96% Advertising, Printing & Media 3.26% Others 8.23% Term to Maturity Financial Company 43.75% Source: IDX Process Data Source: IDX Process Data 2

3 GOVERNMENT BONDS REVIEW Higher Bonds Yields Indonesia s risk premium increased last week. Meanwhile, the total government bonds trading fell DR35.74 trillion to IDR34.38 trillion last week. For corporate bonds, the trading was down by IDR365 billion over the week. Some 45.74% of the total trading in government bonds was in medium tenors with the remaining 54.26% in short and long tenors. Although last week's trading was dominated by medium tenors, the biggest upward shift in the yield curve was for medium tenors (by an average of 57bps), while the yield curve for the short and long tenors shifted up by 27bps and 44bps, respectively. Tren penurunan yield obligasi Pemerintah tertahan, menyebabkan risk premium Indonesia meningkat selama minggu lalu. Selain itu, volume perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah minggu lalu turun Rp35,74 triliun menjadi Rp34,38 triliun. Volume perdagangan obligasi korporasi juga turun Rp365 miliar dari minggu sebelumnya. Sebanyak 45,74% dari perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah berasal dari tenor menengah, sedangkan 54,26% sisanya berasal dari tenor pendek dan panjang. Walaupun perdagangan didominasi tenor menengah, peningkatan yield curve terbesar justru terjadi untuk tenor sedang dengan rata-rata peningkatan sebesar 57bps, sedangkan tenor pendek dan panjang mengalami peningkatan masing-masing sebesar 27bps dan 44bps. Spread Indon 10 year Over UST 10 year Spread SUN 10 year over Indon 10 year 3.6% 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 0.9% 6.6% 6.1% 5.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.1% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Govt Bonds Benchmark Series Yield, Danareksa Estimate Daily Trade Volume FR0066-5Y FR Y FR Y FR Y 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Govt Short Govt Med Govt Long Corp IDR trillion 8-Nov Nov Dec Jan-13 5-Feb Feb Mar-13 8-Apr Apr May-13 7-Jun Jun Jul Aug-13 2-Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov-12 2-Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar-13 1-Apr Apr May May Jun Jul Jul Aug-13 8-Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec-12 3-Jan Jan-13 8-Feb Feb Mar-13 3-Apr Apr-13 9-May May Jun-13 2-Jul Jul-13 7-Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct-13 Risk Premium 10Y (LHS) UST 10Y INDON 10Y Currency Risk Premium 10Y (LHS) INDON 10Y SUN 10Y Source: IDX processed data Yield Curve Comparison Yield Curve Change 9% 7.84% 8.12% 8.26% 8.38% 8% 7.27% 7% 5.53% 5.77% 5.96% 6% 4.99% 5% 3.53% 3.33% 3.63% 4% 2.95% 2.57% 3% 2% 1.31% 1% 0% Term to Maturity UST YC GoI USD Yield Curve GoI IDR Yield Curve Source: Danareksa Estimate 0.70% 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% Term to Maturity Source: Danareksa Estimate 3

4 APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 28 Oktober - 1 November 2013 Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Tenor Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Freq Yield Date Price Bn) Class 29-Oct-13 SPN Nov < 1yr 31-Oct-13 SPN Dec < 1yr FR Dec < 1yr 31-Oct-13 SPNS Jan < 1yr SPNS Jan , < 1yr 28-Oct-13 SPN Feb < 1yr SR Feb < 1yr 29-Oct-13 SPN May < 1yr FR May < 1yr 28-Oct-13 SPN Jul < 1yr SPN Jul < 1yr 30-Oct-13 SPN Oct < 1yr ORI Oct , < 1yr FR Oct < 1yr 31-Oct-13 VR Dec yr - 5yr FR Jun , yr - 5yr IFR Aug yr - 5yr SR Sep yr - 5yr ORI Oct yr - 5yr SR Feb yr - 5yr 28-Oct-13 VR Mar yr - 5yr 29-Oct-13 FR May yr - 5yr FR Sep yr - 5yr FR Apr yr - 5yr FR Jul yr - 5yr 31-Oct-13 VR Jan yr - 5yr FR May , yr - 5yr 30-Oct-13 FR Sep yr - 5yr FR Apr yr - 10yr FR Sep yr - 10yr 31-Oct-13 VR Jul yr - 10yr 30-Oct-13 PBS Sep yr - 10yr FR Nov yr - 10yr FR Jun yr - 10yr FR Jul yr - 10yr FR May , yr - 10yr 30-Oct-13 FR Jun yr - 10yr FR Jul yr - 10yr FR May , yr - 10yr FR Jul yr - 10yr 30-Oct-13 FR Aug yr - 10yr FR Mar , > 10yr FR Sep > 10yr FR Sep > 10yr FR Sep > 10yr FR May > 10yr 29-Oct-13 FR Jul > 10yr FR Feb > 10yr FR May , > 10yr FR Mar , > 10yr 29-Oct-13 IFR Mar > 10yr FR Aug > 10yr FR Jul , > 10yr Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 4

5 APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 28 Oktober - 1 November (Cont'd) Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Tenor Modified Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Freq Yield Date Price Bn) Class Duration FR Jun > 10yr FR May , > 10yr FR Mar , > 10yr Oct-13 FR May > 10yr FR Jul > 10yr FR May > 10yr FR Apr > 10yr PBS Apr > 10yr FR Feb > 10yr Source: Danareksa, BEI 5

6 APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 28 Oktober - 1 November 2013 Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Price Bn) Yield 28-Oct-13 BDMN02A 9-Dec idaa BIMF01A 14-Jan [Idr]BBB Oct-13 BJBR07A 9-Feb idaa ASDF12C 25-Feb idaa Oct-13 NISP01ACN1 1-Mar idaaa/aaa(idn) Oct-13 BFIN01ACN2 1-Mar A+(idn) Oct-13 ADMF02ACN1 11-Mar idaa SMADMF01ACN1 11-Mar idaa+(sy) Oct-13 FIFA01ACN2 14-Apr idaa+/aaa(idn) FIFA01BCN1 20-Apr idaa SMFP01ACN2 25-Apr AA(idn) Oct-13 FIFA11C 26-Apr idaa ADMF01BCN2 4-May idaa Oct-13 IMFI01ACN2 18-May ida Oct-13 TUFI06C 19-May ida TAFS03A 27-May AAA(idn) Oct-13 ADMF05C 27-May idaa Oct-13 ISAT05A 29-May idaa Oct-13 BBTN13C 29-May AA Oct-13 BEXI01ACN3 2-Jun idaaa Oct-13 OTMA07D 8-Jun idaa Oct-13 PNBN02C 19-Jun idaa Oct-13 BCAF01ACN2 24-Jun idaa+/aaa(idn) Oct-13 PPGD13A1 1-Jul AA TRAC03B 5-Jul ida PNBN04 6-Oct AA Oct-13 SOFN04D 28-Oct idaa Oct-13 ADMF04E 29-Oct idaa Oct-13 ADMF02ACN2 3-Nov idaa Oct-13 SIKSIMP01 1-Dec AA Oct-13 BNII01ACN1 6-Dec AAA(idn) ISAT07A 8-Dec AA ADMF01BCN1 16-Dec idaa Oct-13 SANF02C 20-Jan idaa Oct-13 NISP01BCN1 19-Feb idaaa/aaa(idn) ASDF01BCN1 21-Feb idaa Oct-13 WOMF05D 4-Mar AA(idn) Oct-13 BCAF01SB 23-Mar AA(idn) Oct-13 FIFA01CCN1 20-Apr idaa Oct-13 TAFS02B 5-Jun idaa/aaa(idn) Oct-13 BEXI05C 8-Jul idaaa Oct-13 BWPT01 16-Nov ida Oct-13 CNAF01B 22-Nov AA+ (idn) Oct-13 BDMN02B 9-Dec idaa TAFS03B 17-May AAA(idn) Oct-13 BEXI01BCN3 23-May idaaa BNII01BCN1 6-Dec AAA(idn) Oct-13 ISAT07B 8-Dec AA Oct-13 BNGA01B 23-Dec idaaa Oct-13 JPFA01CN1 12-Jan ida Oct-13 ASDF01CCN1 21-Feb idaa Oct-13 SMFP01CCN2 25-Apr AA(idn) Oct-13 INDF06 31-May idaa WSKT02B 5-Jun ida MEDC03 19-Jun idaa Oct-13 ADHISM1CN1 3-Jul ida(sy) Oct-13 BMTR01B 12-Jul ida Oct-13 APLN02 15-Aug ida Oct-13 BNGA01BCN1 30-Oct IdAAA/AAA(idn) Oct-13 PNBN04SB 9-Nov idaa-/a+(idn) Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 6

7 APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds TradingTrading 28 Oktober - 1 November (Cont'd) Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Price Bn) Yield 30-Oct-13 PNBN04SB 9-Nov idaa-/a+(idn) SIAGII02 18-Dec A-(idn) Oct-13 ADHI01ACN2 15-Mar ida Oct-13 AISA01 5-Apr ida SIAISA01 5-Apr ida-(sy) PTHK01B 28-Jun ida Oct-13 BCAP01CN1 5-Jul idbbb Oct-13 JSMR01CCN1S 27-Sep idaa Oct-13 ADMF02CCN2 24-Oct idaa Oct-13 BNII01SBCN1 6-Dec AA-(idn) Oct-13 BNLI01SBCN2 19-Dec idaa Oct-13 PNBN01SBCN1 20-Dec idaa Oct-13 BVIC03SB 27-Jun idbbb Oct-13 MAYA03SB 5-Jul idbbb Oct-13 ANTM01BCN1 14-Dec idaa Oct-13 ISAT08B 27-Jun idaa Oct-13 SIKPPLN04B 8-Jul idaa+(sy) Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 7

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