The Government Bonds : Temporary Storm

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1 WEEKLY REPORT D E B T RESEARCH 21 APRIL 2015 The Government Bonds : Temporary Storm Indonesia FCLT Rating S & P Moody's Fitch BB+ Baa3 BBB Key Market Indicators as of 20Apr15 BI Rate 7.50% JCI Index 5,401 IDR 12,893 Inflation(yoy) Mar % Foreign Holdings Declined Amidst Rupiah Strengthening The government bonds yield index increased last week. The Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) rose 20bps from 7.36% (10/4) to 7.56% at the end of the week (17/4), recording a loss of 1.18%. Strengthening of the rupiah was still not sufficient to increase investor participation in the bonds market especially in government bonds. Although the rupiah ended the week by strengthening slightly relative to the US dollar (appreciating by 0.63%), foreign ownership in government bonds actually declined by IDR1.05 trillion last week. Kepemilikan Asing Turun Ditengah Penguatan Nilai Rupiah Indeks yield obligasi Pemerintah mengalami peningkatan selama sepekan terakhir. Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) meningkat sebesar 20bps dari 7.36% (10/4) menjadi 7.56% di akhir minggu (17/4), sekaligus mencatatkan loss sebesar 1,18%. Penguatan Rupiah selama minggu lalu sepertinya masih belum mampu mendorong investor asing untuk kembali berpartisipasi di pasar obligasi, terutama obligasi Pemerintah. Meskipun nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS menutup minggu dengan penguatan tipis sebesar 0.63%, namun kepemilikan investor asing turun Rp1,05 triliun selama minggu lalu. Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov't Bonds as of 20Apr15 Corp Bonds as of 08Apr15 Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds Corporate Bonds Benchmark Yield as of 20Apr15 FR0069 (5 year) 7.361% FR0070 (10 year) 7.469% FR0071 (15 year) 7.630% FR0068 (20 year) 7.807% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM Government Bonds Indices as of 20Apr15 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 7.57% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) Calendar of Event 23Apr15 US Initital Jobless Claim (Survey : 289K; Prior : 294K) 24Apr15 Japan All Industrial Activity MoM (Survey : 1%; Prior : 1.9%) 30Apr15 China Manufacturing PMI (Survey : NA; Prior : 50.1) Analysts Rifki Rizal ext 3404 rifkir@danareksa.com Amir A. Dalimunthe ext.3405 amirda@danareksa.com IDR 1,321.8tn IDR 229.4tn IDR 61.62tn IDR 2.44tn Shortening of Durations In the government bonds market, investors tended to shorten the duration of their portfolios. This is reflected in the bonds trading which has been dominated by the short tenors (1 to 5 years) over the past several weeks. Total trading in short tenor IDR government bonds reached IDR39.9 trillion last week, or accounting for 64.8% of the total transactions, whilst in the previous week, the short tenor bonds also dominated trading on the secondary market with transactions reaching IDR32.5 trillion (61.4% of the total transactions). By comparison, total trading in long tenor bonds declined by IDR747 billion from IDR5.02 trillion to IDR4.27 trillion. Weaker Demand The bearish trend seen last week was also reflected in the significantly higher required yield that investors demanded at last week s (14/4) SUN auction. The weighted average yield of winning bids was 10bps higher than the yield at the end of the previous day. Compared to the previous auctions since the beginning of the year, the average spread only reached 1bps below the closing yield level on the previous day. The pressure on bond yields is expected to continue while rupiah remains volatile, such that investors will retain a preference for instruments with shorter duration in an effort to minimize losses Memperpendek Durasi Di pasar obligasi Pemerintah, investor masih cenderung memperpendek durasi portofolionya. Hal tersebut terlihat dari volume transaksi yang didominasi oleh obligasi tenor pendek (1 hingga 5tahun) selama beberapa minggu terakhir. Total transaksi obligasi tenor pendek selama minggu lalu mencapai Rp39,9 triliun, atau 64.8% dari total transaksi keseluruhan, sedangkan pada minggu sebelumnya, obligasi tenor pendek juga mendominasi pasar sekunder dengan total transaksi sebesar Rp32.5 triliun, atau 61.4% dari total transaksi. Di sisi lain, transaksi untuk tenor panjang mengalami penurunan sebesar Rp747 miliar dari Rp5.02 triliun menjadi Rp4.27 triliun pada perdagangan minggu lalu. Rendahnya Demand Tren bearish selama minggu lalu juga diperlihatkan oleh required yield investor pada lelang SUN (14/4) yang meningkat cukup signifikan. Yield ratarata yang dimenangkan oleh Pemerintah lebih tinggi 10bps dibandingkan dengan penutupan yield sehari sebelumnya. Jika dibandingkan pada lelanglelang sebelumnya sejak awal tahun 2015, ratarata selisih yield lelang dan level yield pada penutupan hari sebelumnya hanya mencapai 1bps. Tekanan peningkatan yield diperkirakan masih akan terjadi selama volatilitas nilai tukar tetap tinggi dan depresiasi nilai tukar Rupiah masih berlanjut, yang menyebabkan investor untuk memperpendek durasi agar meminimalisasi tingkat kerugian. Yield at Auction vs Yield at The End of Previous Day Weighted Average Yield Yield at The End of Previous Day 3Feb15 17Mar15 14Apr15 3Feb15 17Mar15 14Apr15 FR0069 FR Source: MoF, Bloomberg Please read important disclosure at the back of this report

2 20 27 April 2015 WEEKLY REPORT MACROECONOMICS CONDITION Two Percent Loss in A Week Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) rose by 3bps over the last week. Yield index closed the last week at the level of 8.22% (12/12) after rising from the previous week at the level of 7.92% (5/12). Increase in yield casued performance of government bonds recorded a negative return (loss) by 2% during the week. In line with Government bonds yield index, Indonesia 5year CDS and several emerging markets also inreased last week. Indonesia's 5year CDS increased 29bps from 136bps to 165bps over the past week while Brazil's and Turkey's 5year CDS increased by 47bps and 36bps, respectively. Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) mencatatkan terdapat peningkatan yield sebesar 3bps selama minggu lalu. Yield index menutup akhir minggu di level 8.22% (12/12) setelah naik dari minggu sebelumnya yang berada pada level 7.92% (5/12). Peningkatan yield tersebut berdampak pada performa obligasi Pemerintah yang mencatatkan return negatif (loss) sebesar 2% selama minggu lalu. Peningkatan yield indeks obligasi Pemerintah diikuti juga dengan peningkatan CDS 5tahun yang signifikan dari beberapa Negara berkembang. CDS 5tahun Indonesia meningkat sebesar 29bps dari 136bps menjadi 165bps selama sepekan terakhir sedangkan CDS 5tahun Brazil dan Turkey masingmasing meningkat sebesar 47bps dan 36bps. Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg IDR trillion Source: Ministry of Finance Yield Index Yield Index BI Rate YoY Inflation Gov't Bonds Ownership 8Dec14 11Dec14 16Dec14 19Dec14 24Dec14 2Jan15 7Jan15 12Jan15 15Jan15 20Jan15 23Jan15 28Jan15 2Feb15 5Feb15 10Feb15 13Feb15 18Feb15 24Feb15 27Feb15 4Mar15 Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% RRBI (RHS) BI (RHS) Domestic Bank Foreign Investors IDR trillion 20Nov14 26Nov14 2Dec14 8Dec14 12Dec14 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 18Dec14 24Dec14 5Jan15 CDS 5Year (bps) 9Jan15 15Jan15 21Jan15 27Jan15 2Feb15 6Feb15 12Feb15 Rupiah closed at Rp12,168 per USD 11Dec14 16Dec14 19Dec14 24Dec14 2Jan15 7Jan15 12Jan15 15Jan15 20Jan15 23Jan15 28Jan15 2Feb15 5Feb15 10Feb15 13Feb15 18Feb15 24Feb15 27Feb15 4Mar15 9Mar15 Corporate Bonds Trading by Sector 18Feb15 25Feb15 3Mar15 9Mar Indonesia Philipinnes Brazil Turkey 75 12,950 12,850 12,750 12,650 12,550 12,450 12,350 12,250 12,150 12,050 IDR Billion Term to Maturity Source: IDX Process Data Consumer Goods 4.2% Mining Oil & Natural Gas 7.7% Property & Construction 9.4% Source: IDX Process Data Others 9.3% Financial Company 25.7% Banking 43.8% 2

3 20 27 April 2015 WEEKLY REPORT GOVERNMENT BONDS REVIEW Higher Risk Premium Risk premium (both of sovereign and currecny) has increased significantly. Sovereign risk premium was at the level of 200bps by the end of last week, at the same time recorded the highest level since midoctober, and the currency risk premium was at 406bps. Despite investors demanded higher yields, but the trade volume both of Government and corporate bonds increased over the last week. Total trade volume of Government bonds reached IDR64.38 trillion, or advanced by IDR17.27 trillion from the previous week. Meanwhile, the total volume of corporate bond transactions increased by IDR988 billion from IDR3.58 trillion to IDR4.55 trillion. Risiko premium (sovereign maupun currency risk premium) mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan. Sovereign risk premium berada di level 200bps pada akhir minggu lalu, sekaligus mencatatkan level tertinggi sejak pertengahan Oktober, sedangkan currency risk premium berada di level 406bps. Walaupun tingkat risiko meningkat, namun volume transaksi obligasi Pemerintah maupun korporasi mengalami peningkatan selama minggu lalu. Total volume transaksi obligasi Pemerintah minggu lalu sebesar IDR64.38 triliun, naik IDR17.27 triliun dari total transaksi minggu sebelumnya. Sementara itu, total volume transaksi obligasi korporasi meningkat IDR988 miliar dari IDR3.58 triliun menjadi IDR4.55 triliun. Spread INDON 10 year Over UST 10 year Spread IDR Gov't Bond 10 year over INDON 10 year 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 9.5% 8.5% 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Gov't Bonds Benchmark Series Yield Daily Trading Volume 9.5% Govt Short Govt Med Govt Long Corp % 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% IDR trillion #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 7.0% 6.5% Mar14 4Apr14 28Apr14 20May14 11Jun14 1Jul14 22Jul14 18Aug14 5Sep14 25Sep14 15Oct14 4Nov14 24Nov14 12Dec14 7Jan15 27Jan15 16Feb15 9Mar15 24Feb15 25Feb15 26Feb15 27Feb15 2Mar15 3Mar15 4Mar15 5Mar15 6Mar15 9Mar15 27Feb14 19Mar14 8Apr14 28Apr14 18May14 7Jun14 27Jun14 17Jul14 6Aug14 26Aug14 15Sep14 5Oct14 25Oct14 14Nov14 4Dec14 24Dec14 13Jan15 2Feb15 22Feb15 27Feb14 17Mar14 4Apr14 22Apr14 10May14 28May14 15Jun14 3Jul14 21Jul14 8Aug14 26Aug14 13Sep14 1Oct14 19Oct14 6Nov14 24Nov14 12Dec14 30Dec14 17Jan15 4Feb15 22Feb15 Risk Premium 10Y (LHS) UST 10Y INDON 10Y Currency Risk Premium 10Y (LHS) INDON 10Y SUN 10Y Source: Bloomberg Source: IDX processed data Yield Curve Comparison as of 15 October 2014 Yield Curve Change from 5 to 12 December % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 7.20% 2.89% 1.66% 7.56% 7.78% 7.90% 8.01% 3.97% 4.47% 4.72% 4.96% 2.20% 2.39% 2.58% 2.80% Term to Maturity UST YC GoI USD Yield Curve GoI IDR Yield Curve 0.16% 0.14% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% Term to Maturity Source: Danareksa Estimate Source: Danareksa Estimate 3

4 20 27 April 2015 WEEKLY REPORT APPENDICES Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Tenor Modified Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Freq Yield Date Price Bn) Class Duration 13Apr15 VR Apr < 1yr Apr15 SPN May < 1yr 14Apr15 SPN May < 1yr 16Apr15 SPN Jun < 1yr 16Apr15 SPN Jun < 1yr 17Apr15 FR Jun < 1yr Apr15 SPN Jul < 1yr 17Apr15 SPN Jul < 1yr 16Apr15 SPNS Jul < 1yr 15Apr15 IFR Aug < 1yr Apr15 SR004 21Sep < 1yr 17Apr15 ORI009 15Oct < 1yr Apr15 SPN Jan , < 1yr 17Apr15 SR005 27Feb < 1yr 13Apr15 VR Mar < 1yr Apr15 SPN Apr < 1yr 16Apr15 FR May yr 5yr Apr15 PBS008 15Jun yr 5yr Apr15 FR Sep yr 5yr Apr15 ORI010 15Oct yr 5yr 15Apr15 VR Oct yr 5yr Apr15 SR006 5Mar yr 5yr 16Apr15 FR Apr yr 5yr Apr15 FR Jul yr 5yr Apr15 ORI011 15Oct yr 5yr 17Apr15 SR007 11Mar , yr 5yr 17Apr15 FR May , yr 5yr Apr15 FR Jul yr 5yr Apr15 FR Aug yr 5yr Apr15 FR Sep yr 5yr Apr15 FR Apr , yr 5yr Apr15 VR Aug , yr 5yr Apr15 FR Sep yr 5yr Apr15 PBS006 15Sep yr 10yr Apr15 FR Nov yr 10yr Apr15 FR Jun yr 10yr Apr15 FR Jul yr 10yr Apr15 FR May yr 10yr Apr15 FR Jul yr 10yr Apr15 FR May yr 10yr Apr15 FR Jul yr 10yr Apr15 FR Mar , yr 10yr Apr15 FR Sep yr 10yr Apr15 IFR Jan yr 10yr Apr15 FR Sep > 10yr Apr15 FR Sep > 10yr Apr15 FR May > 10yr Apr15 FR Jul > 10yr Apr15 FR Feb > 10yr Apr15 FR May > 10yr Apr15 FR Mar , > 10yr Apr15 IFR Mar > 10yr Apr15 FR Aug > 10yr Apr15 FR Jul > 10yr Apr15 FR Jun > 10yr Apr15 FR May > 10yr Apr15 FR Mar , > 10yr Apr15 IFR Feb > 10yr Apr15 PBS004 15Feb > 10yr Apr15 FR May > 10yr 9.68 Source: Danareksa, BEI Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading April

5 20 27 April 2015 WEEKLY REPORT APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading April 2015 (Cont'd) Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Tenor Modified Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Freq Yield Date Price Bn) Class Duration 13Apr15 FR May > 10yr Apr15 FR Apr > 10yr Apr15 FR Feb > 10yr Source: Danareksa, BEI 5

6 20 27 April 2015 WEEKLY REPORT APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading April 2015 Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Price Bn) Yield 14Apr15 STTP01ACN1 18Apr ida Apr15 ADMF01CCN2 4May idaaa Apr15 BTPN02B 18May AA+(idn) Apr15 ADMF02ACN3 24May idaaa Apr15 ADMF05D 27May idaaa Apr15 TAFS02B 5Jun idaa+/aaa(idn) Apr15 MFIN01ACN2 13Jun ida Apr15 TRAC03C 5Jul ida Apr15 TLKM02A 6Jul idaaa Apr15 BNII01ACN2 31Oct idaaa/aaa(idn) Apr15 PNBN05 9Nov idaa Apr15 BWPT01 16Nov idbbb Apr15 BNGA01ACN2 20Nov idaaa Apr15 ADMFSM1ACN2 22Nov idaaa(sy) Apr15 SSMM01A 30Nov ida Apr15 BDMN02B 9Dec idaaa Apr15 SMFP02ACN5 29Dec idaa Apr15 NISP01CCN1 19Feb idaaa/aaa(idn) Apr15 NISP01ACN2 20Feb idaaa/aaa(idn) Apr15 ADMF02CCN1 1Mar idaaa Apr15 SMADMF01CCN1 1Mar idaaa(sy) Apr15 BEXI02ACN5 23Mar idaaa Apr15 BCAF02ACN1 30Mar idaaa Apr15 FIFA01BCN2 4Apr idaaa/aaa(idn) Apr15 BBIA01A 11Apr AAA(Idn) Apr15 WOMF01ACN3 12Apr AA(idn) Apr15 IMFI01BCN2 8May ida Apr15 BCAF01DCN1 9May idaaa Apr15 TAFS03B 17May AAA(idn) Apr15 TUFI01ACN1 5Jun idaa Apr15 BIIF01C 7Jun AA+(idn) Apr15 BCAF01BCN2 14Jun idaaa Apr15 BIIF02A 19Jun AA+(idn) Apr15 APLN01B 25Aug ida Apr15 ADMF02BCN2 24Oct idaaa Apr15 ISAT07B 8Dec idaaa Apr15 BMRI01 11Dec idaaa Apr15 TBIG01BCN1 12Dec AA(idn) Apr15 JPFA01CN2 1Feb ida Apr15 ASDF01CCN1 21Feb idaaa Apr15 FIFA01BCN3 14Mar idaaa/aaa(idn) Apr15 BCAF02BCN1 20Mar idaaa Apr15 ADMF02BCN3 14May idaaa Apr15 ISAT05B 29May idaa Apr15 INDF06 31May idaa Apr15 MEDC03 19Jun idaa Apr15 JMPD13R 21Jun idaa Apr15 AMRT01CN1 26Jun AA(idn) Apr15 BNGA01SB 8Jul idaaa Apr15 SMBNII01CN1 8Jul idaaa(sy)/aaa(idn) Apr15 APLN02 15Aug ida Apr15 ADMF01CCN3 27Sep idaaa Apr15 SSIA01B 6Nov ida Apr15 PNBN04SB 9Nov idaa Apr15 ADMF02BCN4 12Nov idaaa Apr15 WOMF01BCN2 5Dec AA(idn) Apr15 SMFP02BCN5 16Dec idaa Apr15 SIAGII02 18Dec A(idn) Apr15 PNMP01BCN1 19Dec ida Apr15 AKRA01A 21Dec idaa Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 6

7 20 27 April 2015 WEEKLY REPORT APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading April 2015 (Cont'd) Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Price Bn) Yield 13Apr15 AKRA01A 21Dec idaa Apr15 NISP01CCN2 10Feb idaaa Apr15 ADHISM1CN2 15Mar ida(sy) Apr15 MEDC01CN2 15Mar idaa Apr15 BCAF02CCN1 20Mar idaaa Apr15 BBIA01B 1Apr AAA(Idn) Apr15 WOMF01BCN3 2Apr AA(idn) Apr15 SIAISA01 5Apr ida(sy) Apr15 BRAP01 8Apr idbbb Apr15 BNII01SB 19May idaa Apr15 APLN01CN1 27Jun ida Apr15 BNLI02SB 28Jun idaa Apr15 PPNX01 5Jul idbbb Apr15 BNII01SBCN1 6Dec idaa Apr15 SISMRA01CN1 11Dec ida+(sy) Apr15 BEXI01CCN1 20Dec idaaa Apr15 MYOR04 9May idaa Apr15 BNLI01SBCN1 15Jun idaa Apr15 TAXI01 24Jun ida Apr15 ISAT08A 27Jun idaaa Apr15 SIISAT05 27Jun idaaa(sy) Apr15 BSLT05 8Oct ida Apr15 SISMRA01CN2 10Oct ida+(sy) Apr15 APLN01CN3 19Dec ida Apr15 PNBN01SBCN1 20Dec idaa Apr15 AKRA01B 21Dec idaa Apr15 BBIA01C 1Apr AAA(Idn) Apr15 BNGA02SB 23Dec AA(idn) Apr15 APOL02B 30Jun idd Apr15 ANTM01BCN1 14Dec ida Apr15 MAYA04SB 17Dec idbbb Apr15 BACA01SB 13Jan idbbb Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 7

8 20 27 April 2015 WEEKLY REPORT RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet ext Market Analyst Rifki Rizal ext Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe Ayesha Ardelia Melissa Hartono Production & Database Management Eka Nuraini ext ext ext ext Debt Capital Market Division Debt Capital Market Div. (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) / 25 Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto budisusanto@danareksa.com ext Debt Sales & Brokerage Rina Rimawati D rina@danareksa.com 62 21) Debt Trading & Investment Romi Mulyadi ext romi@danareksa.com ext Agung Suprihanto agungs@danareksa.com ext Indra Figrachanda indraf@danareksa.com ext Putrika Mayadipta putrikam@danareksa.com Ariningtyas W. Agustina ariningtyasw@danareksa.com ext ext Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo setyohp@danareksa.com ext Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy hernitada@danareksa.com ext Tia Aprianti tia.aprianti@danareksa.com ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice 8

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