Limited Supply. IDR Trillion. Source: MoF, Danareksa Estimates

Transkripsi

1 WEEKLY REPORT D E B T RESEARCH 15 OCTOBER 2014 Indonesia FCLT Rating S & P Moody's Fitch BB+ Baa3 BBB Key Market Indicators as of 14Oct14 BI Rate 7.50% JCI Index 4,923 IDR 12,206 Inflation(yoy) Sep % Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov't Bonds as of 10Oct14 Corp Bonds as of 13Oct14 IDR 1,204.7tn IDR 218.9tn Limited Supply Impact of Frontloading strategy As of 14 October 2014, realized government bond issuances had reached IDR398.5 trillion (92.72% of total gross issuance), or IDR trillion after buyback, debt switch and maturing securities (102.97% of total nett issuance). The frontloading strategy implemented by the government during the year meant that the auction s target in 4Q14 was lower than in 3Q14. The total target for issuances in the final quarter of the year was IDR24.78 trillion, or down by IDR70.8 trillion from 3Q14 s IDR95.66 trillion. The decline in the target for issuances may potentially create buying pressure in the secondary market due to limited supply. Efek Strategi Front Loading Per 14 Oktober 2014, realisasi penerbitan obligasi Pemerintah telah mencapai IDR398.5 triliun (92,72% dari target gross issuance), atau sebesar IDR272,84 triliun setelah dikurangi buyback, debt switch dan jatuh tempo (102.97% dari total target net issuance). Strategi front loading yang diterapkan Pemerintah selama tahun ini menyebabkan target penerbitan lelang SBN di 4Q14 mengalami penurunan jika dibandingkan dengan periode 3Q14. Target penerbitan lelang di kuartal akhir tahun ini sebesar IDR24,78 triliun, turun IDR70,8 triliun dari target penerbitan selama 3Q14 yang mencapai IDR95,66 triliun. Penurunan target penerbitan tersebut berpotensi untuk mendorong tekanan beli karena supply yang semakin terbatas. Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds Corporate Bonds IDR 48.29tn IDR 2.72tn Benchmark Yield as of 14Oct14 FR0069 (5 year) 8.063% FR0070 (10 year) 8.256% FR0071 (15 year) 8.664% FR0068 (20 year) 8.758% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM IDR Trillion BidtoCover Ratio for SUN Auction Total Incoming Bid Total Covered by the Government Bid to Cover Ratio RHS) Government Bonds Indices as of 14Oct14 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 8.41% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) FR0069 FR0070 FR0071 FR Calendar of Event 16Oct14 US Initital Jobless Claim (Survey : 290K; Prior : 287K) 21Oct14 China GDP Constant Price YoY (Survey : 7.2%; Revised : 7.5%) Analysts Rifki Rizal ext 3404 rifkir@danareksa.com Amir A. Dalimunthe ext.3405 amirda@danareksa.com Source: MoF, Danareksa Estimates Potential supply in the final quarter At the auction on 14 October 2014, the government absorbed IDR12 trillion of the total incoming bids reaching IDR32.85 trillion (or resulting in a bidtocover ratio of 2.74 times). In terms of nominal, FR0070 received the highest amount of incoming bids of IDR8.4 trillion with a bidtocover ratio of 6.46 times. Meanwhile, the lowest amount of incoming bids of IDR1.76 trillion was for FR0067. During the 4th quarter of 2014, total issuances of government bonds at auctions had reached IDR13.51 trillion. This left a target of IDR11.28 trillion that must be fulfilled by the end of the year. There are 4 auctions in the remainder of the year which comprise of 2 auctions for each SUN and SBSN series. Comparing the amount absorbed at the SUN and SBSN auctions, the government is expected to need to obtain IDR5.2 trillion and IDR440 billion at each SUN and SBSN auction, respectively. YTD as of 14 October 2014 Potensi Supply di Kuartal Akhir Pada lelang per 14 Oktober 2014, pemerintah menyerap IDR12 triliun dari total penawaran yang masuk sebesar IDR32,85 triliun (bidtocover ratio 2,74 kali). Secara nominal, penawaran tertinggi yang masuk terjadi untuk seri FR0070 sebesar IDR8,4 triliun dengan bid tocover ratio mencapai 6,46 kali. Sementara itu, FR067 menjadi seri dengan total penawaran terendah yaitu sebesar IDR1,76 triliun. Selama kuartal 4 tahun 2014, total penerbitan lelang SBN telah mencapai IDR13,51 triliun dan masih menyisakan target sebesar IDR11,28 triliun yang harus dipenuhi hingga akhir tahun. Terdapat 4 kali penerbitan di sisa tahun 2014 yang terbagi menjadi 2 lelang SUN dan 2 Lelang SBSN. Berdasarkan perbandingan jumlah penerimaan pada lelang SUN dan SBSN, pemerintah diperkirakan harus menyerap IDR5,2 triliun pada setiap lelang SUN dan IDR440 miliar untuk lelang SBSN. Please read important disclosure at the back of this report

2 MACROECONOMICS CONDITION Portfolio Adjustment by Foreign Investors Danareksa s IDR Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) declined slightly over the week. The yield index ended the week at 8.49%, or down from 8.58% at the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, the rupiah/usd exchange rate weakened by 0.36% from IDR12,178 per USD (3/10) to IDR12,222 per USD (10/10). The sideways trend of the rupiah was accompanied by a decline in foreign holdings of government bonds last week. Foreign investors reduced their holdings by IDR1.59 trillion to IDR441.8 trillion (36.67% of the total amount outstanding). Although the weakening rupiah trend has started to ease and volatility has come down, the issue concerning possible hikes in subsidized fuel prices this quarter could put further pressure on the rupiah. Danareksa IDR Government Bonds Yield Index (DGBI) selama minggu lalu mengalami penurunan walaupun tidak signifikan. Yield index menutup minggu di level 8,49% setelah berada di level 8,58% pada awal minggu. Di sisi lain, nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS melemah 0,36% dari IDR per USD (3/10) menjadi IDR per USD (10/10). Tren sideways yang ditunjukkan oleh nilai tukar diikuti juga oleh penurunan kepemilikan asing di obligasi Pemerintah selama minggu lalu. Investor asing mengurangi kepemilikannya sebesar IDR1,59 triliun menjadi IDR441,8 triliun atau 36,67% dari total outstanding. Walaupun tren pelemahan Rupiah mulai melambat dan tingkat volatilitas mulai mereda, namun isu kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi bisa mendorong Rupiah kembali ke zona merah. Yield Index 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Mar10 Jun10 Sep10 Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Yield Index BI Rate YoY Inflation Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg Gov't Bonds Ownership CDS 5Year (bps) Jun14 1Jul14 7Jul14 14Jul14 18Jul14 24Jul14 6Aug14 12Aug14 18Aug14 22Aug14 28Aug14 3Sep14 9Sep14 15Sep14 19Sep14 25Sep14 1Oct14 7Oct14 13Oct14 Indonesia Philipinnes Brazil Turkey Source: Bloomberg Rupiah closed at Rp12,206 per USD IDR trillion Jul14 17Jul14 22Jul14 25Jul14 6Aug14 11Aug14 14Aug14 19Aug14 22Aug14 27Aug14 1Sep14 4Sep14 9Sep14 12Sep14 17Sep14 22Sep14 25Sep14 30Sep14 3Oct14 8Oct RRBI (RHS) BI (RHS) Domestic Bank Foreign Investors IDR trillion 17Jul14 22Jul14 25Jul14 6Aug14 11Aug14 14Aug14 19Aug14 22Aug14 27Aug14 1Sep14 4Sep14 9Sep14 12Sep14 17Sep14 22Sep14 25Sep14 30Sep14 3Oct14 8Oct14 13Oct14 12,250 12,150 12,050 11,950 11,850 11,750 11,650 11,550 11,450 Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Bloomberg Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor Corporate Bonds Trading by Sector IDR Billion Term to Maturity Source: IDX Process Data Fertilizer 10.1% Source: IDX Process Data Others 24.0% Consumer Goods 11.3% Property & Construction 14.5% Financial Company 22.0% Banking 18.1% 2

3 GOVERNMENT BONDS REVIEW Required Risk Premium Increased The 10year sovereign risk premium reached a 5month high of 203bps on 8 October 2014 after starting to increase in midseptember Meanwhile, the upward trend in INDON and SUN yields meant that the 10year currency risk premium tended to move sideways. The increase in the risk premium reflects heightened investor concerns over the likelihood of imminent hikes in subsidized fuel prices. Sovereign risk premium 10tahun yang mulai meningkat sejak pertengahan September 2014 mencatatkan level tertingginya selama 5 bulan terakhir pada 8 Oktober 2014 sebesar 203bps. Sementara itu, tren peningkatan yield INDON dan SUN 10tahun menyebabkan currency risk premium 10tahun cenderung bergerak mendatar. Naiknya risk premium mengindikasikan ekspektasi investor terhadap peningkatan risiko akibat isu kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi di kuartal ini. Spread INDON 10 year Over UST 10 year Spread IDR Gov't Bond 10 year over INDON 10 year 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 9.5% 8.5% 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Gov't Bonds Benchmark Series Yield Daily Trading Volume 10.0% Govt Short Govt Med Govt Long Corp 30 FR0069 5Y FR Y FR Y FR Y 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% IDR trillion 16Oct13 6Nov13 26Nov13 16Dec13 9Jan14 30Jan14 20Feb14 12Mar14 2Apr14 24Apr14 16May 9Jun14 27Jun14 18Jul14 14Aug14 3Sep14 23Sep14 13Oct14 6.5% 29Sep 14 27Sep13 17Oct13 6Nov13 26Nov13 16Dec13 5Jan14 25Jan14 14Feb14 6Mar14 26Mar14 15Apr14 5May14 25May14 14Jun14 4Jul14 24Jul14 13Aug14 2Sep14 22Sep14 12Oct14 30Sep 14 27Sep13 15Oct13 2Nov13 20Nov13 8Dec13 26Dec13 13Jan14 31Jan14 18Feb14 8Mar14 26Mar14 13Apr14 1May14 19May14 6Jun14 24Jun14 12Jul14 30Jul14 17Aug14 4Sep14 22Sep14 10Oct14 Risk Premium 10Y (LHS) UST 10Y INDON 10Y Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Currency Risk Premium 10Y (LHS) INDON 10Y SUN 10Y 1Oct14 2Oct14 3Oct14 6Oct14 7Oct14 8Oct14 9Oct14 10Oct 14 0 Source: Bloomberg Source: IDX processed data 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Yield Curve Comparison as of 13 October 2014 Yield Curve Change from 3 to 10 October % 3.67% 1.55% 4.65% Source: Danareksa Estimate 8.51% 8.78% 8.96% 9.15% 5.08% 5.32% 5.55% 2.31% 2.54% 2.77% 3.03% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.08% % Term to Maturity UST YC GoI USD Yield Curve GoI IDR Yield Curve 0.12% 0.00% Source: Danareksa Estimate Term to Maturity 3

4 APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 6 10 October 2014 Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Tenor Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Freq Yield Date Price Bn) Class 10Oct14 FR Oct < 1yr 10Oct14 ORI008 15Oct < 1yr 8Oct14 SPN Nov < 1yr 10Oct14 SPNS Nov < 1yr 10Oct14 SPNS Dec < 1yr 10Oct14 SPNS Jan < 1yr 10Oct14 SPN Jan < 1yr 10Oct14 SPN Feb , < 1yr 10Oct14 SPN Mar < 1yr 10Oct14 VR Apr , < 1yr 9Oct14 SPN May < 1yr 10Oct14 SPN Jun < 1yr 10Oct14 FR Jun < 1yr 10Oct14 SPN Jul < 1yr 7Oct14 IFR Aug < 1yr 10Oct14 SPN Sep < 1yr 10Oct14 SR004 21Sep < 1yr 10Oct14 ORI009 15Oct yr 5yr 10Oct14 SR005 27Feb yr 5yr 10Oct14 FR May yr 5yr 10Oct14 FR Sep yr 5yr 10Oct14 ORI010 15Oct yr 5yr 9Oct14 VR Oct yr 5yr 7Oct14 IFR Jan yr 5yr 10Oct14 SR006 5Mar , yr 5yr 10Oct14 FR Apr , yr 5yr 10Oct14 FR Jul yr 5yr 9Oct14 VR Sep yr 5yr 10Oct14 FR May yr 5yr 8Oct14 FR Jul yr 5yr 9Oct14 FR Aug yr 5yr 7Oct14 FR Sep yr 5yr 10Oct14 FR Apr , yr 5yr 10Oct14 FR Sep yr 5yr 7Oct14 VR Jul yr 10yr 8Oct14 PBS006 15Sep yr 10yr 8Oct14 FR Nov yr 10yr 10Oct14 FR Jun , yr 10yr 10Oct14 FR Jul yr 10yr 10Oct14 FR May yr 10yr 6Oct14 FR Jun yr 10yr 8Oct14 FR Jul yr 10yr 10Oct14 FR May yr 10yr 10Oct14 FR Mar , yr 10yr 10Oct14 FR Sep yr 10yr 6Oct14 IFR Jan > 10yr 7Oct14 FR Sep > 10yr 10Oct14 FR Sep > 10yr 10Oct14 FR May > 10yr 9Oct14 FR Jul > 10yr 6Oct14 FR Feb > 10yr 10Oct14 FR May > 10yr 10Oct14 FR Mar , > 10yr 10Oct14 FR Aug > 10yr 10Oct14 FR Jul > 10yr 10Oct14 FR Jun > 10yr Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 4

5 APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 6 10 October 2014(Cont'd) Last Trade Last Done Tenor Modified Freq Yield Date Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Vol (IDR Price Bn) Class Duration 10Oct14 FR May > 10yr Oct14 FR Mar , > 10yr Oct14 FR May > 10yr Oct14 FR Apr > 10yr Oct14 PBS005 15Apr > 10yr Oct14 FR Feb > 10yr Source: Danareksa, BEI 5

6 APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 6 10 October 2014 Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Date Bonds Maturity Price Bn) Yield 10Oct14 CFIN03C 8Nov ida Oct14 PPLN07 11Nov idaa Oct14 SDRA01B 1Dec idbbb Oct14 PPKT02 4Dec AA Oct14 ASDF02ACN2 6Dec idaa+/aaa(idn) Oct14 BNII01ACN1 6Dec AAA(idn) Oct14 ADMF01BCN1 16Dec idaa Oct14 BEXI01ACN1 20Dec idaaa Oct14 SMFP01CCN1 21Dec AA(idn) Oct14 TBIG01ACN1 22Dec AA(idn) Oct14 BNGA01A 23Dec idaaa Oct14 SANF02C 20Jan idaa Oct14 ASDF01BCN1 21Feb idaa Oct14 ASDF12D 25Feb idaa Oct14 SMADMF01BCN1 1Mar idaa+(sy) Oct14 WOMF05D 4Mar AA(idn) Oct14 FIFA01ACN3 24Mar idaa Oct14 BCAF01ACN3 7Apr idaaa Oct14 ISAT06B 9Apr idaa Oct14 ASDF02ACN3 14Apr AAA(Idn) Oct14 FIFA01CCN1 20Apr idaa Oct14 SMFP01BCN2 25Apr AA(idn) Oct14 IMFI01BCN1 11May ida Oct14 TAFS02B 5Jun idaa/aaa(idn) Oct14 IMFI04C 9Jun ida Oct14 IMAT01B 19Jun ida Oct14 WOMF01ACN1 5Jul AA(idn) Oct14 TRAC02C 5Jul ida Oct14 TRAC03C 5Jul ida Oct14 BEXI05C 8Jul idaaa Oct14 PPLN12A 8Jul idaa Oct14 ADMF01BCN3 27Sep idaa Oct14 PNBN05 9Nov idaa/aa(idn) Oct14 BEXI01BCN2 27Nov idaaa Oct14 BDMN02B 9Dec idaa Oct14 BTPN03B 22Dec AA(idn) Oct14 DNRK01ACN1 9Jan ida Oct14 BIMF01B 9Jan [Idr]BBB Oct14 NISP01CCN1 19Feb idaaa/aaa(idn) Oct14 BFIN01CCN2 19Feb A+(idn) Oct14 SMADMF01CCN1 1Mar idaa+(sy) Oct14 FIFA01BCN2 4Apr idaa+/aaa(idn) Oct14 SMKBSSB01 12May ida Oct14 BCAF01BCN2 14Jun idaa+/aaa(idn) Oct14 BEXI04D 18Jun AAA Oct14 PPLN08C 21Jun idaa+(sy) Oct14 JSMR01BCN1S 27Sep idaa Oct14 FAST01 6Oct idaa Oct14 BNGA01BCN2 20Nov idaaa Oct14 ASDF02BCN2 26Nov idaa+/aaa(idn) Oct14 ISAT07B 8Dec AA Oct14 BMRI01 11Dec AA Oct14 ADMF01CCN1 16Dec idaa Oct14 VRNA01ACN2 24Dec ida Oct14 JPFA01CN1 12Jan ida Oct14 PPGD01CCN2 14Feb idaa Oct14 ASDF01CCN1 21Feb idaa Oct14 PRTL01 28Feb AA(idn) Oct14 FIFA01BCN3 14Mar idaa Oct14 SMFP02BCN3 27Mar idaa Modified Duration Source: Danareksa, BEI 6

7 APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds TradingTrading 6 10 October 2014(Cont'd) Last Trade Last Done Vol (IDR Modified Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Freq Yield Date Price Bn) Duration 9Oct14 SMFP02BCN3 27Mar idaa Oct14 ASDF02BCN3 4Apr AAA(Idn) Oct14 STTP01BCN1 8Apr ida Oct14 SMFP01CCN2 25Apr AA(idn) Oct14 SMKMYOR02 9May idaa(sy) Oct14 TUFI01ACN2 23May idaa Oct14 ISAT05B 29May idaa Oct14 BEXI02CCN1 5Jun idaaa Oct14 TUFI01BCN1 5Jun idaa Oct14 MEDC03 19Jun idaa Oct14 JMPD13R 21Jun idaa Oct14 AMRT01CN1 26Jun AA(idn) Oct14 ADHISM1CN1 3Jul ida(sy) Oct14 BEXI05D 8Jul idaaa Oct14 BNGA01SB 8Jul AA(idn) Oct14 PIHC01A 8Jul AAA(Idn) Oct14 SIKPPLN01 10Jul idaa+(sy) Oct14 APLN02 15Aug ida Oct14 BNGA01BCN1 30Oct IdAAA/AAA(idn) Oct14 BNII01BCN2 31Oct idaa+/aaa(idn) Oct14 SSIA01B 6Nov ida Oct14 PNBN04SB 9Nov idaa/a+(idn) Oct14 MAPI01BCN1 12Dec idaa Oct14 PNBN01CN1 20Dec idaa Oct14 AKRA01A 21Dec idaa Oct14 PJAA02B 27Dec idaa Oct14 ADMF02DCN1 1Mar idaa Oct14 MEDC01CN2 15Mar idaa Oct14 ADHISM1CN2 15Mar ida(sy) Oct14 SIAISA01 5Apr ida(sy) Oct14 BSDE01CN2 5Jun idaa Oct14 ROTI01CN1 11Jun idaa Oct14 APLN01CN1 27Jun ida Oct14 JSMR01CCN1S 27Sep idaa Oct14 SMRA01CN1 11Dec ida Oct14 SISMRA01CN1 11Dec ida+(sy) Oct14 ANTM01ACN1 14Dec idaa Oct14 BEXI01CCN1 20Dec idaaa Oct14 CTRR01B 2Apr A(idn) Oct14 INDF07 13Jun idaa Oct14 ISAT08A 27Jun idaa Oct14 PIHC01B 8Jul AAA(Idn) Oct14 JSMR01CN2T 19Sep idaa Oct14 BNII01SBCN2 31Oct idaa/aa(idn) Oct14 PNBN01SBCN1 20Dec idaa Oct14 AKRA01B 21Dec idaa Oct14 ADHI01BCN2 15Mar ida Oct14 MAYA03SB 5Jul idbbb Oct14 BNGA02SB 23Dec AA(idn) Oct14 PPLN12B 8Jul idaa Oct14 BBMISMSB1CN2 28Mar ida(sy) Oct14 SIKBLTA02B 31Mar A Oct14 PPLN01BCN1 5Jul idaaa Source: Danareksa, BEI 7

8 RESEARCH TEAM Debt Research (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet ext Market Analyst Rifki Rizal ext Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe Ayesha Ardelia Melissa Hartono Production & Database Management Eka Nuraini ext ext ext ext Debt Capital Market Division Debt Capital Market Div. (62 21) Fax No. (62 21) / 25 Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto budisusanto@danareksa.com ext Debt Sales & Brokerage Rina Rimawati D rina@danareksa.com 62 21) Debt Trading & Investment Romi Mulyadi ext romi@danareksa.com ext Agung Suprihanto agungs@danareksa.com ext Indra Figrachanda indraf@danareksa.com ext Putrika Mayadipta putrikam@danareksa.com Ariningtyas W. Agustina ariningtyasw@danareksa.com ext ext Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo setyohp@danareksa.com ext Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy hernitada@danareksa.com ext Tia Aprianti tia.aprianti@danareksa.com ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice 8