z Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Euro melejit sementara bursa AS berakhir datar pada perdagangan hari Kamis menyusul stimulus baru dari ECB diimbangi oleh sinyal dari Presiden ECB Mario Draghi bahwa pihaknya hanya akan memangkas kembali suku bunganya disaat kondisi sangat ekstrim. Euro rebound dari level terendah 6 pekan terhadap dolar di $1.0823 ke level tertinggi 3 pekan di $1.1217 sebelum akhirnya bergerak di sekitar $1.1120. Emas juga menguat seiring rebound euro. Harga minyak tertekan setelah sebuah sumber mengatakan pertemuan antara produsen minyak untuk membahas pakta global pembekuan produksi tidak mungkin berlangsung di Rusia pada tanggal 20 Maret selama Iran menolak untuk bekerja sama. Jumat 11 Maret 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 06.50 JP Business Survey Index Q1 4.2 IND 3.8 14.00 DE HICP Final MM Feb N/A % 0.4 14.00 DE HICP Final YY Feb -0.2 % -0.2 14.00 DE CPI Final MM Feb 0.4 % 0.4 14.00 DE CPI Final YY Feb 0.0 % 0.0 16.30 GB Goods Trade Bal. Non-EU Jan -2.90 B -2.357 16.30 GB Goods Trade Balance GBP Jan -10.30 B -9.917 20.30 CA Employment Chg. Feb 5.5 K -5.7 20.30 CA Unemployment Rate Feb 7.2 % 7.2 20.30 US Import Prices MM Feb -0.6 % -1.1 20.30 US Export Prices MM Feb -0.5 % -0.8 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia (021) 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
Page 2 of 12 EUR/USD Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Pola symmetrical triangle Upperline area di 1.1325 dan Lowerline area di 1.0850 Waspadai RSI sudah overbought Mar 10 1.0985 1.1217 1.0823 394 1.1180 175 1.1005 Mar 09 1.1000 1.1035 1.0946 89 1.1005 5 1.1010 Mar 08 1.1015 1.1057 1.0994 63 1.1010 5 1.1015 Mar 07 1.0990 1.1025 1.0941 84 1.1015 20 1.0995 Mar 04 1.0950 1.1042 1.0905 137 1.0995 35 1.0960 1.1217 1.0823 1.1217 1.0823 1.1375 1.0815 1.1375 1.0711 (10/Mar) (10/Mar) (10/Mar) (10/Mar) (11/Feb) (01/Feb) (11/Feb) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.1495 High 15/Oct/2015 (Peak level) 1.1375 High 11/Feb/2016 (Peak level) 1.1332 High 12/Feb/2016 1.1251 High 15/Feb/2016 1.1050 Pivot line 1.0808 Pivot line 1.0709 Low 05/Jan/2016 (Bottom) 1.0538 Low 03/Dec/2015 (Bottom) BUY 1.1125 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1.1025 1.1240 1.1300
Page 3 of 12 USD/JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP) Short-term support di 112.25 masih cukup efektif Short-term resistance di 115 Mar 10 113.25 114.44 112.63 181 113.15 20 113.35 Mar 09 112.70 113.45 112.24 121 113.35 70 112.65 Mar 08 113.50 113.51 112.44 107 112.65 75 113.40 Mar 07 113.80 114.06 113.24 82 113.40 65 114.05 Mar 04 113.65 114.25 113.17 108 114.05 40 113.65 114.44 112.24 114.55 112.18 121.47 111.02 121.68 111.02 (10/Mar) (09/Mar) (02/Mar) (01/Mar) (01/Feb) (11/Feb) (29/Jan) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & 116.46 Pivot line on 1-D chart 115.85 High 09/Feb/2016 114.87 High 16/Feb/2016 (reaction high) 114.55 High 02/Mar/2016 (reaction high) 112.14 Low 01/Mar/2016 111.87 Low 25/Feb/2016 110.98 Low 11/Feb/2016 109.15 Low 31/Oct/2014 BUY 112.55 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 112.00 114.00 114.90
Page 4 of 12 GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Pola symmetrical triangle, dengan trendline resistance di 1.43 sedang diuji Key resistance di 1.4350 Trendline support di 1.4130 Mar 10 1.4205 1.4317 1.4120 197 1.4280 60 1.4220 Mar 09 1.4205 1.4241 1.4177 64 1.4220 5 1.4215 Mar 08 1.4260 1.4274 1.4175 99 1.4215 55 1.4270 Mar 07 1.4220 1.4282 1.4135 147 1.4270 60 1.4210 Mar 04 1.4170 1.4247 1.4110 137 1.4210 30 1.4180 1.4317 1.4120 1.4317 1.3905 1.4668 1.3837 1.4813 1.3837 (10/Mar) (10/Mar) (10/Mar) (01/Mar) (04/Feb) (29/Feb) (04/Jan) (29/Feb) ANALYSIS & 1.4813 High 04/Jan/2016 (Reaction high) 1.4668 High 04/Feb/2016 (Peak level) 1.4563 Pivot line 1.4350 Pivot line 1.4105 Low 04/Mar/2016 1.4030 Low 03/Mar/2016 1.3902 Low 01/Mar/2016 1.3833 Low 29/Feb/2016 BUY 1.4225 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.4115 1.4350 1.4400
Page 5 of 12 USD/CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Symmetrical triangle formation Gagal breakout short-term resistance di 1.01 Key support di 0.9785 Waspadai RSI dekat zona oversold (Research @ErwinRiset) Mar 10 0.9980 1.0094 0.9812 282 0.9850 120 0.9970 Mar 09 0.9965 1.0035 0.9942 93 0.9970 10 0.9960 Mar 08 0.9960 0.9971 0.9901 70 0.9960 UNCH 0.9960 Mar 07 0.9945 1.0013 0.9929 84 0.9960 15 0.9945 Mar 04 0.9925 0.9988 0.9881 107 0.9945 35 0.9910 1.0094 0.9812 1.0094 0.9812 1.0249 0.9663 1.0257 0.9663 (10/Mar) (10/Mar) (10/Mar) (10/Mar) (01/Feb) (11/Feb) (29/Jan) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & 1.0330 High 27/Nov/2015 (peak level) 1.0257 High 29/Jan/2016 (reaction high) 1.0100 Short-term resistance 1.0094 High 10/Mar/2016 0.9785 Pivot line 0.9658 Low 11/Feb/2016 (Bottom) 0.9576 Low 22/Oct/2015 0.9473 Low 15/Oct/2015 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 0.9890 STOP LOSS 1.0010 0.9770 0.9700
Page 6 of 12 AUD/USD Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Pola ascending triangle Reli sedang uji resistance di 0.7550 Key support di 0.7385 Mar 10 0.7470 0.7511 0.7428 83 0.7450 35 0.7485 Mar 09 0.7435 0.7527 0.7413 114 0.7485 45 0.7440 Mar 08 0.7460 0.7473 0.7411 62 0.7440 25 0.7465 Mar 07 0.7410 0.7484 0.7393 91 0.7465 40 0.7425 Mar 04 0.7355 0.7443 0.7341 102 0.7425 75 0.7350 0.7527 0.7393 0.7527 0.7110 0.7256 0.6975 0.7527 0.6828 (09/Mar) (07/Mar) (09/Mar) (01/Mar) (26/Feb) (09/Feb) (09/Mar) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7848 High 18/Jun/2015 (Peak level) 0.7738 High 01/Jul/2015 (Reaction high) 0.7656 High 02/Jul/2015 0.7550 Pivot line 0.7390 Low 07/Mar/2016 0.7336 Low 04/Mar/2016 0.7278 Low 03/Mar/2016 0.7200 Trendline support BUY 0.7415 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.7350 0.7520 0.7570
Page 7 of 12 NZD/USD Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Pola Symmetrical triangle Trendline support di 0.6625 sedang diuji Mar 10 0.6635 0.6708 0.6621 87 0.6665 15 0.6650 Mar 09 0.6740 0.6809 0.6643 166 0.6650 95 0.6745 Mar 08 0.6785 0.6802 0.6736 66 0.6745 40 0.6785 Mar 07 0.6790 0.6815 0.6751 64 0.6785 15 0.6800 Mar 04 0.6725 0.6819 0.6718 101 0.6800 70 0.6730 0.6815 0.6621 0.6819 0.6572 0.6774 0.6451 0.6844 0.6348 (07/Mar) (10/Mar) (04/Mar) (01/Mar) (26/Feb) (01/Feb) (04/Jan) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.6897 High 15/Oct/2015 (Peak level) 0.6884 High 25/Dec/2015 (Peak level) 0.6819 High 04/Mar/2016 (Peak level) 0.6809 High 09/Mar/2016 0.6543 Low 16/Feb/2016 (Bottom) 0.6447 Low 01/Feb/2016 (Reaction low) 0.6412 Low 27/Jan/2016 (Reaction low) 0.6346 Low 20/Jan/2016 (Bottom) BUY 0.6615 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.6525 0.6700 0.6780
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP) Pola symmetrical triangle Rebound coba tes resistance di 127 128 Short-term support di 123 Mar 10 124.45 126.76 123.65 311 126.50 175 124.75 Mar 09 123.95 124.89 123.05 184 124.75 75 124.00 Mar 08 124.95 125.02 123.85 117 124.00 90 124.90 Mar 07 125.10 125.42 124.22 120 124.90 50 125.40 Mar 04 124.40 125.59 123.96 163 125.40 85 124.55 126.76 123.05 126.76 122.12 132.02 122.47 132.25 122.12 (10/Mar) (09/Mar) (10/Mar) (01/Mar) (01/Feb) (24/Feb) (29/Jan) (01/Mar) ANALYSIS & 130.00 Pivot line 128.75 Pivot line 128.16 High 16/Feb/2016 (reaction high) 127.17 High 18/Feb/2016 125.77 Pivot line 123.05 Low 02/Mar/2016 122.06 Low 01/Mar/2016 (Bottom) 119.08 Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom) BUY 125.95 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 125.00 127.25 128.15
Page 9 of 12 USD/CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Rebound coba tes shortterm resistance di 1.35 1.36 Short-term support di 1.32 1.31 WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.3313 1.3345 1.3446 1.3224 1.3552 1.3224 1.4101 1.3479 1.4689 1.3224 (09/Mar) (09/Mar) (01/Mar) (09/Mar) (03/Feb) (29/Feb) (20/Jan) (09/Mar) ANALYSIS & 1.3845 Trendline resistance 1.3635 Pivot line 1.3587 High 29/Feb/2016 (reaction high) 1.3500 Pivot line 1.3221 Low 12/Nov/2015 (reaction low) 1.3153 Low 06/Nov/2015 1.3035 Horizontal support 1.2900 Pivot line BUY 1.3310 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.3215 1.3475 1.3575
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/USD) Pola symmetrical triangle Daily trend masih cenderung bullish Waspadai RSI dekat zona overbought AM FIX (17.30 WIB) PM FIX (22.00 WIB) Mar 10 1253.40 1273.40 1237.83 35.57 1271.50 20.00 1251.50 1247.25 1266.50 Mar 09 1263.80 1264.61 1244.28 20.33 1251.50 10.50 1262.00 1258.25 1246.40 Mar 08 1268.00 1277.81 1260.78 17.03 1262.00 5.00 1267.00 1274.10 1267.00 Mar 07 1263.40 1272.90 1257.20 15.70 1267.00 6.00 1261.00 1267.60 1267.90 Mar 04 1260.60 1279.60 1251.03 28.57 1261.00 2.00 1263.00 1271.50 1277.50 1277.81 1237.83 1279.60 1225.00 1260.60 1116.63 1279.60 1062.28 (08/Mar) (10/Mar) (04/Mar) (02/Mar) (11/Feb) (01/Feb) (04/Mar) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1306.20 High 22/Jan/2015 (Peak level) 1285.10 High 03/Feb/2015 (Reaction high) 1279.60 High 04/Mar/2016 (Peak level) 1277.81 High 08/Mar/2016 1236.95 Low 03/Mar/2016 1224.10 Low 02/Mar/2016 1211.10 Low 26/Feb/2016 1201.63 Low 22/Feb/2016 BUY 1247.50 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1236.50 1267.50 1277.50
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/USD) Daily trend cenderung bullish Trendline resistance di 15.90 Waspadai RSI dekat zona overbought Mar 10 15.27 15.62 15.12 49.90 15.57 30.90 15.26 Mar 09 15.31 15.42 15.16 25.30 15.26 4.40 15.30 Mar 08 15.59 15.71 15.30 0.41 15.30 0.31 15.61 Mar 07 15.56 15.77 15.43 0.34 15.61 0.14 15.47 Mar 04 15.17 15.78 15.10 0.68 15.47 0.26 15.21 15.77 15.12 15.78 14.70 15.94 14.18 15.94 13.73 (07/Mar) (10/Mar) (04/Mar) (01/Mar) (11/Feb) (01/Feb) (11/Feb) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & 16.36 High 28/Oct/2015 (Peak level) 15.95 High 11/Feb/2016 (Peak level) 15.90 Trendline resistance 15.79 High 07/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) 15.10 Low 04/Mar/2016 14.57 Low 29/Feb/2016 (Bottom) 14.12 Low 28/Jan/2016 (Reaction low) 13.85 Low 21/Jan/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 15.25 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 15.00 15.65 15.85
Page 12 of 12 CLJ6/USD (OIL) (Exp.: 21 Mar. 2016 - Reuters) Bullish trend channel Waspadai RSI sudah overbought (74) Key support di 36.00 Mar 10 38.15 38.45 37.20 1.25 38.00 0.18 38.18 Mar 09 36.34 38.40 36.23 2.17 38.18 1.89 36.29 Mar 08 37.94 38.37 36.13 2.24 36.29 1.68 37.97 Mar 07 36.21 38.08 36.08 2.00 37.97 1.67 36.30 Mar 04 34.64 36.32 34.39 1.93 36.30 1.62 34.68 38.45 36.08 38.45 33.36 34.66 26.04 38.45 26.04 (10/Mar) (07/Mar) (10/Mar) (01/Mar) (26/Feb) (11/Feb) (10/Mar) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & 43.00 Pivot line 42.00 High 04/Dec/2015 (Reaction high) 40.15 High 07/Dec/2015 39.00 Pivot line 36.00 Key support 34.00 Short-term support 32.33 Low 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction low) 30.56 Low 24/Feb/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 37.05 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 35.85 38.75 39.25