Samuel Research Market Activity Thursday, 09 Mar 2017 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value : 5,393.8 : -8.9 (-0.16%) : 4,050 Mn shrs : 5,327 Bn rupiah Leading Movers HMSP 3,990 40 1.0 BBCA 15,500 50 0.3 MYOR 2,150 50 2.4 MEGA 2,400 160 7.1 Lagging Movers TLKM 3,880-70 -1.8 ASII 8,400-100 -1.2 PLIN 3,990-880 -18.1 UNTR 25,600-400 -1.5 Foreign Net Buy / Sell Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn) BBRI 102 ADRO 41 LPPF 55 ICBP 31 UNTR 21 UNVR 28 BRPT 20 TLKM 20 RALS 16 BJBR 17 Money Market USD/IDR 13,350 3.0 0.0 JIBOR O/N 4.3 0.0 - Infl (MoM) 0.2 - - Dual Listing Securities TLKM 28.7-0.5-1.6 ISAT 40.6-0.1-0.2 EIDO 24.5-0.3-1.1 World Indices DJIA 20,856-69 -0.3 S&P 500 2,363-5 -0.2 Euro Stoxx 3,390 5 0.1 MSCI World 1,835-6 -0.3 Nikkei 19,319 65 0.3 Hang Seng 23,782 101 0.4 Commodities Brent Oil 53-2.8-5.0 CPO Malay 2,822 12.0 0.4 Coal Newc 78-0.9-1.1 Nickel 10,170-446.8-4.2 Tin 19,395 32.0 0.2 Fokus pasar masih pada ragam data dan pertemuan Fed Semalam indeks AS ditutup mixed merefleksikan penurunan harga minyak dunia. Laporan lonjakan ADP employment change menjadi 298K vs 261K di bulan sebelumnya yang diadopsi sebagai potensi langkah The Fed untuk lebih agresif mempercepat kenaikan suku bunga acuan juga menjadi sentimen penggerak. Dari pasar Eropa indeks ditutup bervariasi ditengah laporan Spring Budget dan industrial production Jerman yang tercatat naik setelah terkontraksi -2.4% di bulan sebelumnya. Ragam data penting hingga esok hari masih dinantikan oleh investor dunia, diantaranya hari ini China akan menerbitkan angka inflasi dan penjualan mobil, ECB mengumumkan suku bunga acuannya dan AS akan merilis data continuing dan jobless claims. Selain itu, UK dijadwalkan akan menerbitkan angka industrial production dan US akan melaporkan non-farm payrolls serta unemployment rate. Sementara itu, dari pasar komoditas dunia, harga emas turun sedangkan minyak dunia (Brent) melemah tajam (>5%, mendekati 3M low) setelah data menunjukan inventori pekan lalu naik 8.2jt barrels (consensus 2jt barrels). Dari pasar domestik, data penjualan ritel dijadwalkan terbit hari ini. Fokus masih tertuju pada terbitnya beberapa penting diatas dan hasil pertemuan The Fed pekan depan (ekspektasi pasar rate hike di bulan Mar17 sebesar 91%). Sementara itu, masa earnings season kami perkirakan tidak akan banyak mempengaruhi pergerakan IHSG karena sudah hampir berakhir dan sebagian besar big cap telah melaporkan kinerjanya. Nilai tukar rupiah hari ini tercatat Rp13,350/USD, relatif flat dibandingkan hari sebelumnya. Highlights PPRO: Spin off divisi hospitality Batubara: Kebijakan batu bara China ber potensi menekan harga. HERO dan ACES: Ekspansi gerai Biodiesel: Dana subsidi biodiesel dipekerikan defisit IPO: Alfa Energi siap IPO TLKM: Membidik pendapatan tumbuh 15% di tahun ini www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 7
PPRO: Spin off divisi hospitality PPRO akan spin off divisi hospitality, paling cepat pada akhir 2018. Aset divisi tersebut akan diperbesar dulu hingga Rp 2 triliun. RUPS perusahaan memutuskan pembagian dividen 20% dari laba bersih 2016 atau setara Rp 5,2 per saham, yang akan dibagikan pada 10 April 2017. Capex tahun ini dianggarkan Rp 1,6 triliun untuk menambah land bank dan membangun sejumlah proyek. Marketing sales tahun ini ditargetkan tumbuh 20% menjadi Rp 3 triliun, sementara laba bersihnya ditargetkan naik 20% menjadi Rp 438 miliar. (Investor Daily) PPRO: Non-Coverage. Batubara: Kebijakan batubara China ber potensi menekan harga. Pergerakan harga batubara masih dipengaruhi oleh sentimen perubahan kebijakan batubara China. Jam kerja pertambangan di China sudah mendekati tahapan normal. Disamping itu permintaan pun secara bertahap sudah mulai berkurang. Namun, seiring membaiknya harga batu bara, produksi China pun mulai naik.serta pertambangan batubara yang sebelumnya ditutup pun mulai ber operasi kembali. Hal ini yang perlu diwaspadai merespon terkoreksinya harga batubara. (Bisnis Indonesia) HERO dan ACES: Ekspansi gerai PT Hero Supermarket Tbk. (HERO) dan PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk. (ACES) berencana ekspansi dengan menambah gerai sepanjang 2017. Manajemen HERO menuturkan akan membuka lima gerai Giant Extra di Sumatera, Sulawesi, dan Jawa Timur. Selain itu, HERO akan menambah tiga gerai Hero Supermarket di Jawa Timur dan Jawa Barat. Sementara itu, manajemen ACES memutuskan alokasi belanja modal tahun ini Rp300 miliar, yang dipergunakan untuk menambah gerai. Belanja modal tersebut berasal dari kas internal perusahaan. Sampai dengan Maret, ACES baru menambah 1 gerai baru. (Investor Daily). HERO: Non Coverage, ACES: Hold 17E PE: 18.5x, PBV: 4.1x 17E. Biodiesel: Dana subsidi biodiesel dipekerikan defisit Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) memperkirakan ketersediaan dana untuk subsidi biodieselpada tahun initidak dapat menutup kebutuhan. Hal ini disebabkan oleh terus naiknyaharga minyak sawit mentah (crudepalm oil/cpo) hingga menembus US$800 per ton. Salah satu opsi yang dikaji adalah memangkas harga indeks pasar (HIP) atau menaikkan pungutan ekspor CPO. Opsi tersebut intinya untuk menambah anggaran dana subsidi biodiesel. (Bisnis Indonesia) www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 7
IPO: Alfa Energi siap IPO PT Alfa Energi, sebuah perusahaan tambang batubara, akan IPO pada 1H17 dengan melepas 23% saham ke publik. Lead underwriternya adalah PT Lautandhana Securindo. Dana hasil IPO akan dipakai untuk melunasi hutang, memenuhi kebutuhan modal kerja, serta menaikkan kapasitas storage. (Investor Daily) TLKM: Membidik pendapatan tumbuh 15% di tahun ini PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) menetapkan target pertumbuhan pendapatan sebesar 10-15% di tahun 2017. Kenaikan pendapatan ini ditopang oleh kenaikan pendapatan digital. Untuk menunjang kenaikan pendapatan, TLKM mengalokasikan capex sebesar Rp 23,36 Rp 29,08 triliun, hamper sama dengan capex tahun lalu. 60% akan digunakan untuk ekspansi di industri mobile, 30% untuk membangun infrastruktur broadband dan 10% untuk infrastruktur lain. (Kontan) TLKM: BUY 17E PE: 16.2x, PBV: 3.9x 17E www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 7
Ticker Rec. Mkt Cap price 1D Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE Banks (Rp bn) (Rp) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E BMRI HOLD 264,250 11325 0.0 (2.2) 11295 12400 9.5 11.8 11.4 1.5 1.4 13.1% 12.4% BBCA BUY 382,153 15500 0.3 0.0 16417 17100 10.3 16.5 15.6 3.0 2.6 17.9% 16.5% BBRI BUY 296,030 12000 0.0 2.8 13239 13500 12.5 10.6 9.3 1.8 1.6 16.8% 16.8% BBNI BUY 117,020 6275 (0.4) 13.6 6653 6600 5.2 8.2 7.3 1.2 1.1 14.5% 14.4% BBTN BUY 21,710 2050 1.0 17.8 2331 2300 12.2 7.8 7.1 1.0 0.9 13.1% 12.9% Average 11.0 10.1 1.7 1.5 15.1% 14.6% Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY 95,628 8200 (0.3) (4.4) 10112 10300 25.6 23.0 20.2 4.8 4.2 20.8% 20.9% INDF BUY 70,024 7975 (0.6) 0.6 10100 9900 24.1 15.0 13.0 2.1 1.9 14.2% 14.9% KLBF BUY 70,313 1500 0.3 (1.0) 1744 1700 13.3 27.8 24.6 5.3 4.7 19.0% 19.0% ROTI BUY 7,745 1530 1.0 (4.4) 1815 2050 34.0 22.2 18.9 4.5 3.8 20.5% 20.2% ULTJ BUY 12,593 4360 0.0 (4.6) #N/A N/A 5300 21.6 16.4 14.8 3.1 2.6 18.9% 17.5% UNVR HOLD 323,703 42425 (0.1) 9.3 44304 45200 6.5 45.3 40.4 52.8 46.3 116.6% 114.4% SIDO BUY 8,325 555 0.0 6.7 655 700 26.1 15.4 12.3 2.9 2.8 18.9% 22.4% AISA BUY 7,081 2200 1.4 13.1 2548 2440 10.9 13.5 12.8 1.7 1.5 12.2% 11.5% Average 22.3 19.6 9.7 8.5 30.1% 30.1% Cigarette HMSP BUY 464,109 3990 1.0 4.2 4167 4390 10.0 35.9 34.7 12.3 0.3 34.3% 1.0% GGRM BUY 120,881 62825 (0.0) (1.7) 78348 77150 22.8 17.8 16.8 2.5 2.3 14.1% 13.4% Average 26.9 25.8 7.4 1.3 24.2% 7.2% Healthcare MIKA HOLD 37,250 2560 1.2 (0.4) 2964 2950 15.2 49.1 43.1 9.4 8.5 19.1% 19.7% SILO HOLD 16,908 13000 0.8 19.3 13192 12500-3.8 160.5 126.2 5.3 4.8 3.3% 3.8% Average 104.8 84.6 7.3 6.7 11.2% 11.8% Poultry CPIN BUY 50,506 3080 0.7 (0.3) 3361 4500 46.1 13.0 12.1 1.7 1.5 12.8% 12.4% JPFA BUY 19,170 1680 (1.2) 15.5 2029 2200 31.0 9.2 8.4 1.7 1.5 18.7% 17.6% MAIN BUY 2,742 1225 (0.4) (5.8) 1492 1730 41.2 6.6 5.9 1.0 0.9 15.6% 15.5% Average 9.6 8.8 1.5 1.3 15.7% 15.2% Retail MAPI BUY 9,130 5500 2.8 1.9 6185 7700 40.0 33.7 24.3 2.6 2.4 7.8% 9.8% RALS BUY 8,409 1185 8.2 (0.8) 1592 1750 47.7 18.2 14.5 2.2 2.0 12.0% 13.9% ACES HOLD 13,034 760 1.3 (9.0) 931 825 8.6 18.5 15.8 4.1 3.5 22.2% 21.8% LPPF BUY 38,079 13050 (1.1) (13.7) 16292 19500 49.4 13.8 13.3 11.2 8.0 81.1% 60.0% Average 21.1 17.0 5.0 4.0 30.8% 26.4% Telco EXCL BUY 30,247 2830 (1.4) 22.5 3318 3200 13.1 76.5 50.5 1.4 1.4 1.8% 2.7% ISAT BUY 38,038 7000 0.0 8.5 8179 7200 2.9 21.6 13.6 2.5 2.2 11.7% 16.2% TLKM BUY 391,104 3880 (1.8) (2.5) 4607 5000 28.9 16.2 12.5 3.9 3.3 24.0% 26.7% TOWR BUY 36,731 3600 0.0 0.6 4562 4500 25.0 10.5 9.8 2.6 2.0 24.5% 20.7% Average 31.2 21.6 2.6 2.2 15.5% 16.6% Auto and HE ASII BUY 340,062 8400 (1.2) 1.5 8889 9000 7.1 15.2 12.9 2.6 2.1 17.2% 16.4% UNTR BUY 95,491 25600 (1.5) 20.5 26593 27500 7.4 14.1 12.5 2.1 1.9 15.2% 15.3% Average 14.7 12.7 2.4 2.0 16.2% 15.9% Aviation GIAA BUY 8,801 340 0.0 0.6 377 445 30.9 13.1 10.3 0.9 1.0 7.1% 9.9% Property BSDE BUY 33,970 1765 (1.1) 0.6 2350 2350 33.1 14.2 12.1 1.3 1.1 9.3% 9.3% PWON BUY 27,933 580 3.6 2.7 699 710 22.4 19.3 17.7 3.1 2.7 15.8% 15.1% ASRI HOLD 7,310 372 0.5 5.7 442 390 4.8 10.9 10.3 1.0 0.9 8.8% 8.7% SMRA BUY 19,837 1375 0.0 3.8 1541 1550 12.7 28.4 26.8 2.4 2.2 8.4% 8.2% SSIA BUY 2,729 580 0.0 33.6 854 750 29.3 12.9 10.7 0.8 0.8 6.6% 7.5% CTRA BUY 24,036 1295 0.0 (3.0) 1710 1580 22.0 12.7 10.4 1.4 1.3 11.0% 12.4% DMAS BUY 11,760 244 2.5 6.1 315 300 23.0 17.4 14.4 1.4 1.3 8.0% 8.9% KIJA BUY 6,612 320 0.6 9.6 450 450 40.6 10.7 9.4 1.1 1.0 10.1% 10.3% Average 15.8 14.0 1.6 1.4 9.8% 10.0% www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 7
Construction PTPP BUY 21,576 3480 (0.6) (8.7) 4895 4150 19.3 15.5 13.1 1.8 1.7 11.8% 12.6% ADHI HOLD 8,261 2320 0.0 11.5 2523 2550 9.9 24.9 20.9 1.5 1.4 6.0% 6.5% WSKT BUY 33,120 2440 0.8 (4.3) 3342 3250 33.2 14.6 11.6 1.7 1.6 11.7% 14.2% WIKA BUY 21,976 2450 0.0 3.8 3102 3000 22.4 19.8 17.3 1.6 1.4 8.0% 8.3% Average 18.7 15.7 1.7 1.5 9.4% 10.4% Cement INTP SELL 56,691 15400 (0.6) 0.0 15557 13500-12.3 13.4 11.8 1.9 1.7 14.4% 14.8% SMGR HOLD 55,311 9325 (0.3) 1.6 9848 9000-3.5 13.7 12.4 1.8 1.6 12.9% 12.9% SMCB SELL 7,050 920 1.7 2.2 772 700-23.9-38.3-30.7 0.9 0.9-2.3% -2.8% SMBR HOLD 24,201 2460 1.7 (11.8) 458 2300-6.5 64.7 61.5 6.5 5.7 10.0% 9.3% Average 13.4 13.7 2.8 2.5 8.8% 8.5% Precast WSBP BUY 14,235 540 0.9 (2.7) 686 690 27.8 21.2 13.8 1.7 1.5 8.0% 10.6% WTON BUY 6,972 800 (0.6) (3.0) 1143 1150 43.8 21.1 18.2 2.3 1.9 10.9% 10.6% Average 21.1 16.0 2.0 1.7 9.4% 10.6% Oil and Gas PGAS BUY 66,422 2740 (2.1) 1.5 3262 3375 23.2 9.8 8.2 1.3 1.2 13.5% 14.5% AKRA BUY 24449.7 6125.0-0.8 2.1 7208.8 7600 24.1 20.9 20.7 3.2 2.9 15.2% 14.0% MEDC BUY 8,731 2620 (0.8) 98.5 2687 4500 71.8 4.3 5.0 0.8 0.7 17.7% 13.4% Average 11.6 11.3 1.8 1.6 0.2 0.1 Utilities JSMR BUY 33,241 4580 1.6 6.0 5549 5000 9.2 17.3 22.9 2.4 2.2 13.9% 9.8% Metal ANTM BUY 17,542 730 (2.7) (18.4) 945 1250 71.2 8.5 4.6 0.8 0.8 10.0% 17.8% INCO BUY 24,443 2460 (1.6) (12.8) 2809 3500 42.3 26.7 15.6 1.0 1.0 3.7% 6.2% TINS BUY 7,485 1005 (0.5) (6.5) 1275 1200 19.4 47.9 29.6 1.4 1.3 2.9% 4.5% Average 27.7 16.6 1.1 1.0 5.5% 9.5% Coal DOID BUY 5994.0 720.0-5.9 41.2 850.0 850 18.1 6.8 6.1 2.4 1.7 35.9% 28.8% ITMG BUY 19,350 17125 (0.1) 1.5 20263 19000 10.9 7.4 6.5 1.4 1.3 19.6% 20.5% ADRO BUY 54,216 1695 0.0 0.0 1914 2100 23.9 12.8 11.7 1.1 1.0 8.5% 8.7% PTBA BUY 24,885 10800 (1.4) (13.6) 14968 15000 38.9 11.1 9.0 2.2 1.9 19.9% 21.5% Average 9.5 8.3 1.8 1.5 21.0% 19.9% Plantation AALI BUY 29,255 15200 (0.5) (9.4) 18596 19800 30.3 16.7 14.0 1.8 1.7 10.7% 12.1% LSIP BUY 10,268 1505 (2.3) (13.5) 1816 2050 36.2 13.6 10.5 1.2 1.1 9.1% 10.9% SIMP BUY 9,648 610 (1.6) 23.5 523 600-1.6 13.9 10.7 0.7 0.6 4.9% 5.8% Average 14.7 11.7 1.2 1.2 8.2% 9.6% Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, INCO, DOID report in USD. www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 7
Regional Indices 1D Change Price Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low World (5.85) 1,835 (0.32) (0.59) (0.76) 1.50 4.24 4.77 14.78 1,859 1,567 U.S. (S&P) (5.41) 2,363 (0.23) (0.85) (1.38) 2.39 4.58 5.55 18.79 2,401 1,969 U.S. (DOW) (69.03) 20,856 (0.33) (0.71) (1.23) 3.39 5.56 5.53 22.68 21,169 16,822 Europe 4.50 3,390 0.13 (0.40) (0.02) 3.41 6.01 3.01 12.38 3,408 2,678 Emerging Market (1.60) 935 (0.17) 0.41 (0.38) 1.01 6.50 8.42 18.69 957 781 FTSE 100 (4.38) 7,335 (0.06) (0.54) (0.65) 1.45 5.47 2.68 n/a 7,395 5,789 CAC 40 5.48 4,960 0.11 (0.69) (0.01) 2.78 4.12 2.02 12.08 5,002 3,956 Dax 1.17 11,967 0.01 (0.50) (0.83) 2.79 6.82 4.24 23.08 12,083 9,214 Indonesia (8.85) 5,394 (0.16) 0.05 0.57 0.40 1.61 1.83 12.11 5,492 4,691 Japan 64.95 19,319 0.34 (0.31) (1.26) 2.18 1.70 1.07 16.08 19,668 14,864 Australia (1.76) 5,758 (0.03) 0.20 (0.32) 1.65 3.55 1.63 11.65 5,833 4,894 Korea 2.57 2,098 0.12 0.80 (0.22) 1.55 3.62 3.53 7.43 2,113 1,893 Singapore 14.85 3,145 0.47 0.74 0.72 2.12 6.40 9.18 11.91 3,158 2,703 Malaysia (3.12) 1,726 (0.18) 1.00 1.64 2.19 5.12 5.10 2.32 1,734 1,612 Hong Kong 101.20 23,782 0.43 0.97 0.02 1.09 4.49 8.10 18.93 24,364 19,595 China (1.74) 3,241 (0.05) 0.69 (0.19) 1.81 0.24 4.42 13.21 3,301 2,773 Taiwan 15.38 9,753 0.16 1.09 0.81 1.70 3.84 5.40 12.96 9,870 8,000 Thailand 1.86 1,552 0.12 (0.92) (0.99) (1.99) 1.66 0.57 11.58 1,601 1,343 Philipines 0.04 7,295 0.00 0.65 1.73 0.58 3.57 6.64 4.99 8,118 6,499 Monetary Indicators 1D Change Price Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low JIBOR Overnight (%) (0.03) 4.31 (0.11) 0.41 (2.64) 1.89 (15.99) 5.58 4.16 Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a 119.86 n/a 2.54 7.53 3.01 14.65 119.86 103.59 Inflation Rate (%) n/a 0.23 n/a (76.29) (51.06) (45.24) 355.56 0.97 (0.45) US Fed Rate (%) 0.00 0.75 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 50.00 0.75 0.50 Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % (0.01) 7.42 (1.25) (1.21) (3.15) (6.94) (6.17) 8.36 6.77 Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change Price Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Indonesia 3.00 13350 (0.02) 0.25 0.09 (0.17) 0.92 0.92 (1.54) 13,698 12,920 Japan 0.18 114.53 (0.16) (0.56) (0.10) (1.12) 2.12 2.12 (1.03) 118.66 99.02 UK (0.00) 1.22 (0.01) (0.56) (0.82) (2.64) (1.40) (1.40) (14.42) 1.50 1.18 Euro (0.00) 1.05 (0.03) (0.42) 0.30 (1.10) 0.20 0.20 (4.19) 1.16 1.03 China 0.01 6.91 (0.15) (0.23) (0.45) (0.71) 0.46 0.46 (5.91) 6.96 6.45 Commodities Indicators 1D Change Price Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Oil 0.32 50.60 0.64 (4.89) (3.82) (4.53) (1.75) (5.81) 32.15 55.24 35.24 CPO 12.00 2,822.00 0.43 0.00 0.97 (6.34) (8.58) (9.23) 11.90 3,202.00 2,172.00 Rubber (8.50) 1,117.00 (0.76) (1.11) (0.89) (2.32) 27.88 14.27 97.18 1,174.00 569.50 Coal (0.90) 77.95 (1.14) (3.29) (5.57) (1.20) (1.83) (17.69) 51.51 112.25 51.75 Iron Ore (0.75) 86.97 (0.85) (4.67) (5.94) 5.69 6.67 11.41 38.71 94.91 46.80 Tin 32.00 19,395.00 0.17 (0.39) (0.54) 2.13 (7.85) (8.54) 16.40 21,945.00 15,494.00 Nickel (445.00) 10,200.00 (4.18) (7.19) (7.52) (2.81) (8.15) 1.80 18.74 12,145.00 8,245.00 Copper (7.50) 5,765.50 (0.13) (2.56) (4.16) (2.20) (0.29) 4.15 18.44 6,204.00 4,483.50 Gold (2.00) 1,207.40 (0.17) (1.48) (2.07) (2.29) 4.03 4.99 (3.98) 1,377.50 1,124.70 Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg www.samuel.co.id Page 6 of 7
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The v iews expressed in this research accurately ref lect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or v iews in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is f or information only and f or the use of the recipient. It is not to be reprod uced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable f or all investors. Moreover, although the inf ormation contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserv ed by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia www.samuel.co.id Page 7 of 7