RISET SAHAM HARIAN. IHSG diwarnai beragam sentimen

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1 RISET SAHAM HARIAN Samuel Equity Research Monday, 09 May 2016 Market Activity Monday, 09 May 2016 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value : 4,822.6 : (+0.2%) : 3,532 Mn shrs : 4,222 Bn rupiah Leading Movers UNVR 45, TLKM 3, HMSP 99, INTP 19, Lagging Movers BBRI 10, BMRI 9, PGAS 2, UNTR 14, Foreign Net Buy / Sell Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn) GGRM 46 TLKM 94 BBNI 23 ASII 85 ICBP 21 BBRI 45 UNVR 19 PTBA 24 BBTN 17 PGAS 24 Money Market USD/IDR 13, JIBOR O/N Infl (MoM) Dual Listing Securities TLKM ISAT EIDO World Indices DJIA 17, S&P 500 2, Euro Stoxx 2, MSCI World 1, Nikkei 16, Hang Seng 20, IHSG diwarnai beragam sentimen Data klaim pengangguran pada kamis lalu dan non-farm payrolls pada jumat lalu yang lebih buruk dari ekspektasi menjadi sentimen negatif di bursa AS. Namun, sentimen positif datang dari kenaikan harga minyak dunia seiring ekspektasi menurunnya supply oil sands dari Kanada akibat kebakaran besar di negara itu. Setelah libur panjang kemarin, IHSG hari ini berpotensi dipengaruhi beragam sentimen dan cenderung melemah. Selain dari yang disebutkan di atas, USD index yang menguat dan pertumbuhan ekonomi 1Q16 dalam negeri yang di bawah 5% menekan nilai tukar rupiah saat ini. Sepanjang libur IHSG kemarin, S&P500 dan EIDO tercatat melemah masing-masing sekitar 0,3% dan 1,3%. Bursa di regional dibuka mixed pagi ini. Highlights ELSA : Sediakan dana Rp50 miliar SUGI : Masih mampu membayar kewajiban Properti : Masih mengalami pelemahan Infrastructure: Tol Cikampek II ditenderkan Commodities WTI Oil CPO Malay 2, Coal Newc Nickel 9, Tin 17, DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

2 ELSA: Sediakan dana Rp50 miliar PT Elnusa Tbk. (ELSA) bersiap menggelontorkan dana Rp400 Rp500 miliar untuk ekspansi bisnis tahun ini. Anak usaha dari PT Pertamina (Persero) tersebut akan memakai dana tersebut untuk membeli alat baru dan meremajakan alat lama. Mayoritas dari sumber dana belanja tahun ini, yakni sebesar 70%, akan berasal dari utang bank, dan sisanya 30% berasal dari kas internal. ELSA juga akan berburu kontrak luar negeri berupa pekerjaan memelihara sumur dan menjual karya pabrikasi. Adapun negara-negara yang dibidik antara lain: Myanmar, Vietnam, Brunei Darussalam, Timur Tengah, dan Afrika. (Kontan) ELSA: Non-coverage, 16E PE:9.3x, PBV: 1.2x. SUGI: Masih mampu membayar kewajiban Anak usaha dari PT Sugih Energy TbK, Petroselat Ltd, masih mampu untuk menyelesaikan kewajibannya kepada PT Richland Logistics Indonesia dan PT Sentosasegara Mulia Shipping dengan masing masing sebesar US$ dan US$ Petroselat merupakan anak usaha SUGI yang menjadi operator blok Selat Panjang yang berlokasi di Riau. Kepemilikan sahamnya terdiri dari 55% milik SUGI dan sisanya dikuasai PetroChina International SelatPanjang Ltd. SUGI melihat dengan adanya gas alam produksi Petroselat yang di jual kepada PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) dan beberapa kontrak dengan perusahaan lainnya, Petroselat masih mampu untuk membayar kewajibannya. (Bisnis Indonesia) Non-coverage. Infrastructure: Tol Cikampek II ditenderkan Kementerian PUPera lewat Badan Pengatur Jalan Tol (BPJT) tengah menyiapkan tender tol Cikampek II yang bertujuan untuk mengurangi kepadatan lalu lintas. JSMR dengan menggandeng PT Wira Nusantara Bumi Tollroad Development Consultant (Wira) mendirikan konsorsium dimana JSMR menguasai 60% dan sisanya dikuasai Wira. Konsorsium tersebut mengikuti tender proyek ini, dimana JSMR merupakan inisiatornya. Total nilai investasi proyek ini sebesar Rp triliun namun angkanya masih bisa berubah. BPJT menyatakan ada beberapa perusahaan lain yang juga berminat menggarap proyek ini seperti Grup Astra, Grup Kompas Gramedia, PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk (CMNP), dan PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META). (Kontan) Infrastructure: Overweight. Page 2 of 6

3 Properti: Masih mengalami pelemahan Diberitakan bahwa kinerja 1Q16 emiten properti secara umum menurun secara yoy seiring kelesuan di sektor ini. Sejumlah analis menyatakan sejumlah kebijakan yang diterapkan pemerintah belum dapat mendorong sektor ini hingga saat ini. Penerapan tax amnesty, apabila diberlakukan, diperkirakan akan mendorong performa sektor properti. Emiten-emiten besar umumnya mencetak penurunan laba bersih di 1Q16, seperti CTRA (-37%yoy), BSDE (-67%yoy), dan SMRA (-89%yoy). PWON berhasil mencatatkan kenaikan laba bersih 65% terutama akibat forex gain. (Kontan) Property: Neutral. Page 3 of 6

4 Ticker Rec. JCI Wgt price 1D Chg 1M Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside Banks (%) (Rp) (%) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E BMRI HOLD (1.5) (1.5) % 17.4% n/a n/a BBCA HOLD (1.5) % 18.2% n/a n/a BBRI HOLD (1.7) (4.2) (9.4) % 19.2% n/a n/a BBNI HOLD (0.2) (11.2) (7.4) % 14.0% n/a n/a Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY % 19.5% INDF BUY (0.3) % 14.0% KLBF BUY (0.4) (6.9) % 19.4% ROTI BUY % 23.3% ULTJ BUY (1.9) n/a % 22.5% UNVR HOLD % 119.1% Cigarette HMSP HOLD % 33.8% GGRM BUY (0.3) % 14.5% Healthcare Retail MIKA BUY (2.7) % 19.0% SILO HOLD (1.1) 3.5 (10.2) % 5.6% MAPI BUY (4.5) % 13.4% RALS HOLD (0.7) % 10.5% ACES BUY (1.1) % 21.0% Telco EXCL BUY (9.7) (3.6) % 9.6% ISAT HOLD (0.4) % 12.0% TLKM HOLD % 20.5% Auto and HE ASII HOLD (7.6) % 17.8% UNTR HOLD (2.1) (9.3) (16.2) % 12.5% Aviation GIAA BUY (10.5) % 7.7% Property BSDE BUY (3.0) (0.3) % 11.8% PWON BUY (1.9) (1.9) % 15.8% KPIG BUY (2.4) (11.7) n/a % 4.1% n/a n/a ASRI HOLD (3.1) (1.6) % 10.1% SMRA BUY (3.0) (9.5) (13.0) % 11.0% Construction PTPP HOLD (1.9) (4.6) (6.3) % 23.2% ADHI HOLD (3.0) (5.8) % 8.6% WSKT BUY % 10.0% WIKA BUY (3.0) (3.4) (3.0) % 16.4% Cement INTP BUY (4.0) (13.1) % 19.9% SMGR BUY (5.8) (13.8) % 17.9% SMCB HOLD (1.4) % 1.1% Utility PGAS BUY (2.0) (8.6) (10.4) % 12.9% JSMR BUY (0.9) % 13.7% Coal and Metal ANTM SELL % 1.9% INCO BUY (4.1) (5.4) % 4.2% TINS HOLD (1.4) (15.9) % 6.0% ITMG BUY (0.6) % 12.8% ADRO HOLD % 4.8% PTBA BUY (4.0) % 17.7% Plantation AALI BUY (2.9) (6.7) (0.8) % 11.1% LSIP BUY (11.5) % 11.7% SIMP BUY % 4.1% Poultry PE PBV ROE EV/EBITDA (x) CPIN HOLD % 19.4% n/a n/a JPFA BUY % 11.7% MAIN HOLD (0.4) 8.8 (7.2) % 12.6% n/a n/a Other Sectors AKRA HOLD (2.5) (12.6) (17.8) % 17.7% Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, INCO report in USD. Page 4 of 6

5 Regional Indices 1D Change Price Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low World , (0.05) (1.94) (1.18) (8.44) 1,814 1,460 U.S. (S&P) , (0.30) (0.40) (2.79) 2,135 1,810 U.S. (DOW) , (0.06) (0.19) (2.48) 18,351 15,370 Europe (3.51) 2,937 (0.12) (1.26) (3.02) (10.12) (19.53) 3,714 2,673 Emerging Market (4.12) 805 (0.51) (1.01) (3.62) (1.41) (22.18) 1, FTSE , (0.97) (3.11) (1.27) 8.76 (1.87) n/a 7,084 5,500 CAC 40 (18.22) 4,301 (0.42) (1.62) (2.88) (0.04) 7.60 (7.24) (15.50) 5,218 3,892 Dax , (0.57) (1.68) (8.13) (15.71) 11,920 8,699 Indonesia , (0.33) (0.48) (0.73) (6.54) 5,347 4,034 Japan , (2.46) (6.32) (14.59) (16.11) 20,953 14,866 Australia , (5.72) 5,803 4,707 Korea (2.09) 1,975 (0.11) (0.18) (1.31) (7.39) 2,149 1,801 Singapore (37.01) 2,731 (1.34) (2.86) (4.59) (2.76) 4.10 (5.27) (20.89) 3,473 2,528 Malaysia , (0.13) (1.52) (4.02) (0.79) (2.55) (8.76) 1,824 1,504 Hong Kong (339.95) 20,110 (1.66) (2.74) (5.98) (1.28) 4.26 (8.23) (27.08) 28,525 18,279 China (84.59) 2,913 (2.82) (2.65) (1.10) (2.40) 5.42 (17.69) (30.73) 5,178 2,638 Taiwan (21.53) 8,146 (0.26) (1.78) (3.86) (4.63) 1.03 (2.30) (15.95) 9,797 7,203 Thailand (7.17) 1,391 (0.51) (0.66) (1.98) (8.91) 1,536 1,221 Philipines (7.88) 6,992 (0.11) (0.78) (2.34) (3.52) (9.94) 7,923 6,084 Monetary Indicators 1D Change Price Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low JIBOR Overnight (%) (0.23) (22.51) (34.19) (12.99) Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a n/a (3.60) Inflation Rate (%) n/a (0.45) n/a (336.84) (188.24) (146.88) (225.00) 0.96 (0.45) US Fed Rate (%) Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % (3.02) (11.01) (2.22) Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change Price Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Indonesia (0.34) (0.32) (0.38) (0.54) (1.94) 14,736 12,978 Japan (0.31) (0.41) (0.97) UK (0.00) 1.44 (0.06) (0.53) (1.73) 1.26 (2.15) (2.15) (7.49) Euro (0.00) 1.14 (0.16) (0.88) (1.28) (0.19) China (0.01) (0.02) (0.28) (0.23) (0.04) (0.04) (4.54) Commodities Indicators 1D Change Price Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Oil (29.45) CPO (1.00) 2, (0.04) (3.45) , , Rubber (3.00) (0.43) (0.92) (1.41) Coal (0.15) (0.30) (0.30) (0.20) 1.20 (1.84) 0.10 (18.70) Iron Ore (1.80) (2.76) (3.65) Tin , , , Nickel , (4.78) (2.47) (35.11) 14, , Copper , (2.24) (2.67) (24.73) 6, , Gold (6.60) 1, (0.51) 1.02 (0.65) , , Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Page 5 of 6

6 Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research Strategy, Banking, Consumer Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Senior Analyst Auto, Heavy Equipment, Property, Cigarette, Media, Aviation, Healthcare Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Analyst Mining, Plantation Adrianus Bias Prasuryo Senior Analyst Cement,Construction, Utility Marlene Tanumihardja Analyst Retail, Poultry, Consumer, Small Cap Adde Chandra Kurniawan Research Associate Rangga Cipta Economist Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Indices, Equities, Commodities, Currencies, Fixed Income Team Kelvin Long Director of Equities Evelyn Satyono Head of Institutional Lucia Irawati Head of Retail Yulianah Senior Institutional Sales Ronny Ardianto Institutional Ferry Khusaeri Indra S. Affandi Senior Institutional Sales Muhammad Isfandi Institutional Peter Hamsja Jovita Widjaja Clarice Wijana Institutional Iwan Setiadi James Wihardja Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head Of Marketing OLT Rina Lestari SPV Customer Service Page 6 of 6