Riset Saham Harian. Fed menaikan suku bunga acuan. Highlights. Samuel Research 15 Juni 2017

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1 Samuel Research Market Activity Thursday, 15 Jun 2017 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value : 5,792.9 : (+1.5%) : 4,050 Mn shrs : 5,327 Bn rupiah Close +/- % Leading Movers ASII 9, BBRI 14, BMRI 12, HMSP 3, Lagging Movers MEGA 2, ABDA 6, MYRX AUTO 2, Foreign Net Buy / Sell Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn) TLKM 44 INDF 82 GGRM 28 BBRI 38 SMGR 26 LPPF 27 CTRA 21 BBNI 26 UNVR 18 AISA 23 Money Market Close +/- % USD/IDR 13, JIBOR O/N Infl (MoM) Dual Listing Securities Close +/- % TLKM ISAT EIDO World Indices Close +/- % DJIA 21, S&P 500 2, Euro Stoxx 3, MSCI World 1, Nikkei 19, Hang Seng 25, Fed menaikan suku bunga acuan Indeks AS semalam ditutup mixed dengan sentimen utama kenaikan suku bunga acuan The Fed untuk yang kedua kalinya tahun ini. Fed menaikan 25 bps sejalan dengan ekspektasi pasar dan tidak merubah proyeksinya tahun ini. Fed juga memperkirakan inflasi akan cenderung melemah dan menurunkan targetnya dari 1.9%YoY menjadi 1.6%.YoY. Pasar EU ditutup dengan sebagian besar melemah, merefleksikan ekspektasi keputusan penurunan suku bunga The Fed. Pagi ini beberapa bursa di APAC naik, sedangkan ASX200 turun. Dari pasar dalam negeri, investor kini tengah menantikan keputusan BI 7D RR, data trade balance dan export import. Pasar juga menantikan terbitnya data penjualan automotive (May17) sebagai indikasi daya beli pasar dan kondisi makro terkini (diperkirakan akan membaik MoM dan YoY). Nilai tukar rupiah ditransaksikan menguat tipis ke Rp vs Rp13.292, sedangkan pasar EIDO menguat. Highlights KLBF: Pertumbuhan mendekati 10% Perbankan: Penyaluran KUR mencapai Rp 37 triliun CPO: Harga minyak sawit masih sulit bangkit Batubara: Wajib jual batubara di pasar lokal naik 19,22% Batubara: Sentiment China panaskan batubara Telco: Lelang frekuensi 2,1GHz dan 2,3 GHz tuntas 1 Januari 2018 Migas: Target lifting migas di APBN 2018 ditargetkan 1,96 2,05 juta boe/d, flat. Commodities Close +/- % Brent Oil CPO Malay 2, Coal Newc Nickel 8, Tin 19, Page 1 of 8

2 KLBF: Pertumbuhan mendekati 10% KLBF memperkirakan penjualan pada 2Q17 tumbuh mendekati 10%yoy seiring adanya momen Lebaran yang mengerek volume penjualan. Segmen nutrisi menjadi penyumbang utama. Di tahun ini, KLBF akan menyediakan 40 jenis obat untuk program JKN sesuai dengan tender yang didapatkan. Di tahun lalu, KLBF hanya menyediakan maksimal 30 jenis obat. Namun, KLBF merasa sulit meningkatkan kinerja di segmen ini karena harga obatnya yang ditetapkan pemerintah cenderung murah. Sejumlah peluang ekspansi di ASEAN termasuk Filipina, Myanmar, dan Vietnam tengah dikaji, termasuk dengan pembentukan JV atau pun akuisisi. (Investor Daily, Bisnis Indonesia). KLBF: BUY; 17E PE: 29.5, PBV: 5.5x. Perbankan: Penyaluran KUR mencapai Rp 37 triliun Hingga Mei lalu, KUR berhasil tersalurkan Rp 37 triliun dari target KUR tahun ini secara nasional sebesar Rp 110 triliun. BBRI menjadi kontributor utama dengan menyalurkan Rp 28 triliun per Mei lalu, dari target Rp 71 triliun di tahun ini. Pemerintah tengah menyiapkan skema grace period bagi KUR di sektor perkebunan sehingga nasabah diperbolehkan mulai membayar cicilan ketika usahanya sudah menghasilkan pemasukan. (Investor Daily). Banking: Overweight. CPO: Harga minyak sawit masih sulit bangkit Kenaikan produksi crude palm oil (CPO) mulaiterlihat selama Mei Sentiment posi tif yang bisa menopang harga CPO sebenarnya masih minim. Nilai tukar ringgit Malaysia masih cenderung menguat terhadap dollar AS. Permintaan CPO selama bulan Ramadan juga tidak setinggi harapan pasar. Sementara itu ada peluang naiknya harga CPO jika The Fed menaikkan suku bunga, tapi kenaikan tidak akan signifikan karena sudah di ekspektasi oleh pasar. (Kontan). Perkebunan: Neutral. Batubara: Wajib jual batubara di pasar lokal naik 19,22% Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) menetapkan kewa-jiban penjualan dalam negeri atau domestic market obliga-tion (DMO) batubara tahun ini minimal 107,9 juta ton naik 19.22% yoy. sebanyak 46 perusahaan pemegang Perjanjian Karya Pengusahaan Pertambangan Batubara (PKP2B) wajib memenuhi penjualan local tersebut. (Kontan). Batubara: Neutral. Batubara: Sentiment China panaskan batubara Data Biro Statistik Nasional China pada Rabu (14/6) menyebutkan pro duksi batu bara China pada Mei 2017 turun 2,2% mom menjadi 9,6 juta ton per hari. Hal ini disebabkan pemeriksaan kemanan penambangan yang lebih ketat. (Bisnis Indonesia). Batubara: Neutral. Page 2 of 8

3 Telco: Lelang frekuensi 2,1GHz dan 2,3 GHz tuntas 1 Januari 2018 Menteri Komunikasi dan Informatika (Menkominfo) Rudiantara menargetkan, lelang frekuensi 2,1 GHz dan 2,3 GHz selesai paling lambat pada 1 Januari Menkominfo menetapkan 1 Januari 2018 setelah menerima laporan layanan telekomunikasi 10 kota di Indonesia sudah mengalami penurunan. (Investor Daily). Telco: Overweight. Migas: Target lifting migas di APBN 2018 ditargetkan 1,96 2,05 juta boe/d, flat Komisi VII DPR RI telah menyetujui asumsi Rancangan APBN 2018 sektor energi. Dalam rancangan tersebut, lifting migas tahun depan ditargetkan di kisaran 1,96 2,05 juta barrel oil equivalent/hari (boe/d), flat dibanding Hingga Mei, lifting migas Indonesia tercatat sebesar 1,92 juta boe/d, dengan rincian 788 ribu barel/hari (mb/d) sementara produksi gas 1,13 juta boe/d. (Investor Daily). Oil and gas: Neutral. Page 3 of 8

4 Stock Rec. Mkt Cap price 1D Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE Banks (Rp bn) (Rp) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E BMRI BUY 291, % 12.0% BBCA HOLD 443, % 16.5% BBRI BUY 366, % 16.8% BBNI BUY 121, % 14.2% BBTN BUY 28, % 13.7% BNLI BUY 19, % 5.7% Average Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY 102, % 20.9% INDF BUY 75, % 14.9% KLBF BUY 73, % 18.7% ROTI BUY 6, (19.1) % 20.2% ULTJ BUY 14, (2.4) % 17.5% UNVR HOLD 370, % 114.4% SIDO BUY 7, (1.0) (3.8) % 22.4% AISA BUY 5, (1.5) (13.1) % 12.5% Average % 30.2% Cigarette HMSP BUY 448, % 32.4% GGRM BUY 152, % 13.4% Average % 22.9% Healthcare MIKA BUY 29, (19.8) % 19.3% SILO HOLD 16, % 3.8% Average % 11.6% Poultry CPIN BUY 53, % 12.4% JPFA BUY 16, (3.4) % 18.9% MAIN BUY 2, (11.9) % 17.2% Average % 16.2% Retail MAPI BUY 10, % 9.1% RALS BUY 9, (1.9) % 13.9% ACES HOLD 18, % 21.8% LPPF BUY 42, (3.0) % 60.0% Average % 26.2% Telco EXCL BUY 36, % 2.7% ISAT BUY 34, (0.8) (2.7) % 16.7% TLKM BUY 439, % 26.7% TOWR BUY 38, % 20.7% Average % 16.7% Auto and HE ASII BUY 370, % 16.4% UNTR BUY 103, % 14.9% Average % 15.7% Aviation GIAA HOLD 8, (1.7) % 1.7% Property BSDE BUY 35, % 8.5% PWON BUY 30, % 19.3% ASRI HOLD 6, (8.0) % 8.7% SMRA HOLD 18, (1.9) % 4.8% SSIA BUY 3, % 7.5% CTRA BUY 21, (13.1) % 11.1% DMAS BUY 10, (5.2) % 10.8% KIJA BUY 6, % 8.1% Average % 9.8% Page 4 of 8

5 Construction PTPP BUY 19, (16.5) % 12.6% ADHI HOLD 8, % 6.5% WSKT BUY 31, (7.8) % 14.2% WIKA BUY 20, (4.2) % 8.3% Average % 10.4% Cement INTP SELL 66, % 12.6% SMGR HOLD 58, % 12.9% SMCB SELL 5, (15.0) % -2.8% SMBR HOLD 27, (0.7) % 9.3% Average % 8.0% Precast WSBP BUY 12, (12.1) % 10.6% WTON BUY 5, (19.4) % 10.6% Average % 10.6% Oil and Gas PGAS HOLD 58, (10.0) % 10.7% AKRA BUY % 14.0% MEDC BUY 8, % 16.3% Average % 14% Utilities JSMR BUY 38, % 9.8% Metal ANTM BUY 17, (17.3) % 17.8% INCO BUY 19, (0.5) (30.7) % 6.2% TINS BUY 5, (26.0) % 4.5% Average % 9.5% Coal DOID BUY % 28.6% ITMG BUY 20, % 20.5% ADRO BUY 53, (2.1) % 8.7% PTBA BUY 26, (7.6) % 21.5% Average % 19.8% Plantation AALI BUY 27, (14.6) % 12.1% LSIP BUY 9, (18.1) % 10.9% SIMP HOLD 8, % 5.2% Average % 9.4% Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, MEDC, INCO, DOID report in USD. Page 5 of 8

6 Regional Indices 1D Change Change (%) 1 Year Price Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low World , ,936 1,567 U.S. (S&P) (2.43) 2,438 (0.10) ,446 1,992 U.S. (DOW) , ,392 17,063 Europe (10.72) 3,547 (0.30) (1.09) (0.05) (2.60) ,667 2,678 Emerging Market , (0.53) , FTSE 100 (26.04) 7,474 (0.35) (0.70) (0.06) n/a 7,599 5,789 CAC 40 (18.45) 5,243 (0.35) (1.06) (0.42) (3.21) ,442 3,956 Dax , (0.08) 1.05 (0.01) ,921 9,214 Indonesia , ,874 4,754 Japan (25.35) 19,858 (0.13) (0.25) (0.26) (0.06) ,240 14,864 Australia (51.00) 5,783 (0.87) (0.95) ,957 5,051 Korea , ,387 1,893 Singapore (4.09) 3,253 (0.13) (0.02) 0.71 (0.33) ,275 2,703 Malaysia , ,795 1,612 Hong Kong , (0.59) (0.38) ,090 19,663 China (23.07) 3,131 (0.73) (0.88) (0.31) 1.31 (3.43) ,301 2,808 Taiwan (55.69) 10,072 (0.55) (1.25) (1.35) ,268 8,374 Thailand , ,601 1,343 Philipines , ,118 6,499 Monetary Indicators 1D Change Change (%) 1 Year Price Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low JIBOR Overnight (%) (0.19) (16.28) Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a n/a Inflation Rate (%) n/a 0.39 n/a (7.14) (0.02) US Fed Rate (%) Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % (0.63) (2.32) (6.52) (13.53) (9.81) Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change Change (%) 1 Year Price Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Indonesia (9.00) ,593 12,920 Japan (0.08) (3.34) UK (0.00) 1.27 (0.05) 0.68 (1.63) (1.17) (10.27) Euro (0.00) 1.12 (0.04) (0.41) China (0.01) (2.87) Commodities Indicators 1D Change Change (%) 1 Year Price Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Oil (0.11) (0.25) (3.17) (2.23) (8.66) (8.68) (16.94) (7.06) CPO , (0.78) (6.20) (9.91) (22.19) (2.03) 3, , Rubber (14.00) (1.75) (3.20) (6.81) (12.47) (28.47) (19.54) , Coal (0.15) (0.19) (0.56) (2.07) (15.26) Iron Ore (0.81) (1.47) (1.27) (2.46) (5.37) (36.79) (30.44) Tin (173.00) 19, (0.89) 2.20 (0.33) (3.14) (3.41) (8.76) , , Nickel , (0.39) 1.53 (3.97) (12.56) (10.73) , , Copper (18.00) 5, (0.31) (1.81) (2.08) , , Gold (10.30) 1, (0.81) (0.26) (1.06) (1.78) 1, , Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Page 6 of 8

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8 Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer Rangga Cipta Economist Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Arandi Ariantara Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property Cement, Telecommunication, Toll Road, Oil and Gas Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation Nadya Swastika Research Associate Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] Wahyu Widodo Marketing [email protected] Aben Epapras Marketing [email protected] DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The v iews expressed in this research accurately ref lect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or v iews in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is f or information only and f or the use of the recipient. I t is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable f or all investors. Moreover, although the inf ormation contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserv ed by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 8 of 8