Riset Saham Harian. Ketegangan Korea Utara mewarnai pasar. Highlights. Samuel Research 18 September 2017

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1 Samuel Research Market Activity Monday, 18 Sep 2017 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value : 5,872.4 : (+0.3%) : 4,050 Mn shrs : 5,327 Bn rupiah Leading Movers HMSP 3, TPIA 24, UNTR 31, BMRI 6, Lagging Movers BBCA 18, GGRM 68, ASII 7, RMBA Foreign Net Buy / Sell Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn) BMRI 82 BBCA 239 BBNI 57 ASII 109 ADRO 38 TLKM 70 BRPT 35 PTBA 51 BBTN 33 BBRI 27 Money Market USD/IDR 13, JIBOR O/N Infl (MoM) Dual Listing Securities TLKM ISAT EIDO Ketegangan Korea Utara mewarnai pasar Sidang Majelis Umum PBB akan digelar di New York, AS pada September Dalam pertemuan tersebut Trump dijadwalkan akan berpidato pada Selasa, mengenai isu utama denuklirisasi Korea Utara dan Iran. Trump akan mengajukan dua permintaan yaitu, mengajak negaranegara anggota PBB untuk melawan Korea Utara serta menahan Iran untuk melanjutkan program nuklirnya. Setelah Badai Harvey dan Irma menghantam wilayah Amerika Serikat (AS) beberapa pekan lalu, Pusat Badai Nasional melaporkan adanya potensi serangan Badai Jose dan Maria pekan ini. Pergerakannya dapat menyusuri lepas pesisir pantai New Jersey dan New York pada Rabu pagi. Di pasar komoditas harga minyak mentah AS berakhir flat, setelah Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) melaporkan surplus pasokan minyak mentah global mulai menurun. IHSG ditutup menguat 0,35% atau 20,39 poin di level 5.872,39 pada jumat kemarin. Ketegangan terkait Korea Utara yang sedikit mereda memberi peluang kenaikan pergerakan bursa saham hari ini. Sejumlah bursa di Asia dan Australia menguat pagi ini dan IHSG juga berpeluang menguat hari ini. Highlights World Indices DJIA 22, S&P 500 2, Euro Stoxx 3, MSCI World 1, Nikkei 19, Hang Seng 27, Commodities Brent Oil CPO Malay 2, Coal Newc Nickel 11, Tin 20, WTON: Perbanyak jenis produk PTPP: Kontrak baru capai Rp24tn SMGR: Kaji obligasi Rp 2 triliun Migas: Revisi aturan gross split mulai diminati investor BBTN: Pacu dana ritel, kembangkan QR Pay Page 1 of 6

2 WTON: Perbanyak jenis produk PT Wika Beton, Tbk (WTON) secara kontinyu memperbanyak jenis produknya, salah satunya melalui rencana peluncuran dermaga apung beton pracetak (pertama kali diaplikasikan di Indonesia). Saat ini WTON memiliki 12 jenis produk untuk berbagai sektor, mulai dari jembatan, transportasi, properti, perairan, hingga maritim. WTON juga telah meluncurkan struktur segmental box girder berbentuk lengkung dengan bentang terpanjang hingga 80 meter tanpa tiang (telah digunakan untuk pada proyek Simpang Susun Semanggi Jakarta). (Bisnis Indonesia). WSKT: BUY; 17E PE: 10.9x, PBV: 1.2x PTPP: Kontrak baru capai Rp24tn PT PP (Persero), Tbk (PTPP) membukukan kontrak baru sebesar Rp24.1tn di 8M17 atau naik sebesar 28.6%YoY. Pencapaian tersebut setara dengan 59.2% dari nilai new contract di FY17E sebesar Rp40.6tn. Dari total kontrak tersebut sekitar 52.7% dari BUMN, 33.7% dari proyek swasta dan hanya sebesar 13.6% saja dari nilai total kontrak berasal dari proyek pemerintah. (PT PP Persero). PTPP: BUY; 17E PE: 10.4x, PBV: 1.2x SMGR: Kaji obligasi Rp 2 triliun PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR) tengah mengkaji penerbitan obligasi senilai Rp 1 2 triliun sebagai salah satu pendanaan perseroan. Obligasi tersebut akan diterbitkan apabila realisasi penggunaan belanja modal dapat mencapai kisaran 80 90% di tahun ini. Saat ini realisasi belanja modal telah mencapai 50% dan banyak digunakan untuk pembangunan pabrik semen di Rembang, Jawa Tengah dan Indarung, Sumatera Barat. (Bisnis Indonesia). SMGR: HOLD; 17E PE: 15.2x, PBV: 2.0x Migas: Revisi aturan gross split mulai diminati investor Revisi beleid kontrak migas skema bagi hasil kotor (gross split), Peraturan Menteri (Permen) Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) No 52 Tahun 2018 mendapat respon positif dari investor. Hal ini dilihat dari bertambahnya jumlah peminat lelang blok migas yang dilakukan pemerintah. Sebanyak 10 wilayah kerja konvensional saat ini mendapat 19 bid document yang diakses. Berka revisi tersebut, tingkat pengembalian modal (internal rate of return / IRR) blok migas diprediksi bisa naik sekitar 6,55%. (Investor Daily). Oil and gas: Neutral. BBTN: Pacu dana ritel, kembangkan QR Pay PT Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) mengembangkan layanan transaksi kilat atau quick response payment (QR Pay) untuk mendorong pertumbuhan nasabah ritel pada dana pihak ketiga. Estimasi target transaksi QR Pay adalah transaksi dengan nominal Rp 85 miliar untuk 1 tahun pertama. (Bisnis Indonesia). BBTN: BUY; 17E PE: 11.2x, PBV: 1.6x Page 2 of 6

3 Stock Rec. Mkt Cap JCI Wgt price 1D Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE Banks (Rp bn) (%) (Rp) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E BMRI BUY 309, % 12.0% BBCA HOLD 465, (1.2) % 16.5% BBRI BUY 366, % 17.0% BBNI BUY 135, % 14.3% BBTN BUY 34, % 13.7% BNLI BUY 19, (0.7) % 5.7% Average % 13.2% Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY 101, (0.3) % 19.0% INDF BUY 74, (0.3) % 14.9% KLBF BUY 80, % 18.7% ROTI BUY 6, (4.1) (19.7) % 19.6% UNVR HOLD 388, (0.3) % 114.4% SIDO BUY 7, (5.4) % 15.0% AISA BUY 3, (8.0) (46.8) % 16.5% Average % 31.2% Cigarette HMSP BUY 450, % 32.4% GGRM BUY 130, (1.8) % 14.8% Average % 23.6% Healthcare MIKA BUY 31, (16.0) % 19.3% SILO HOLD 13, (3.2) % 3.8% Average % 11.6% Poultry CPIN BUY 44, (12.9) % 12.4% JPFA BUY 13, (18.6) % 18.9% MAIN BUY 2, (0.6) (31.2) % 16.1% Average % 15.8% Retail MAPI BUY 11, % 9.1% RALS BUY 6, (20.5) % 15.4% ACES BUY 18, % 23.0% LPPF BUY 29, (32.6) % 60.0% Average % 26.9% Media MNCN BUY 20, (19.7) % 19.3% SCMA BUY 33, (17.5) % 39.9% Average % 29.6% Telco EXCL BUY 42, (0.5) % 2.7% ISAT BUY 33, (3.9) (5.4) % 16.7% TLKM BUY 472, % 26.7% TOWR BUY 45, % 20.7% Average % 16.7% Auto and HE ASII BUY 317, (0.6) (5.1) % 16.6% UNTR BUY 115, % 14.9% Average % 15.7% Aviation GIAA HOLD 8, % 1.7% Property BSDE BUY 34, % 8.5% PWON BUY 30, % 19.3% ASRI BUY 7, % 6.6% SMRA HOLD 14, (23.8) % 5.7% SSIA BUY 2, % 7.5% CTRA BUY 21, (0.8) (11.6) % 9.7% DMAS BUY 9, (13.9) % 10.8% KIJA BUY 6, (0.6) % 8.1% Average % 9.5% Page 3 of 6

4 Construction PTPP BUY 14, (0.4) (38.3) % 12.6% ADHI HOLD 7, (1.9) % 7.1% WSKT BUY 24, (1.6) (28.8) % 13.6% WIKA BUY 16, (0.3) (23.9) % 8.3% Average % 10.4% Cement INTP SELL 69, (0.7) % 12.6% SMGR HOLD 61, (1.2) % 12.9% SMCB SELL 6, (7.8) % -2.8% SMBR HOLD 31, % 9.3% Average % 8.0% Precast WSBP BUY 9, (32.6) % 13.6% WTON BUY 4, (1.9) (37.0) % 10.6% Average % 12.1% Oil and Gas PGAS HOLD 41, (1.2) (36.5) % 10.7% AKRA BUY 27, % 14.0% TPIA BUY 85, % 16.8% MEDC BUY 10, (3.8) % 16.3% Average % 14% Utilities JSMR HOLD 43, % 11.7% Metal ANTM BUY 16, (24.0) % 17.8% INCO HOLD 27, (3.9) (3.2) % 2.1% TINS BUY 6, (1.1) (19.1) % 9.3% Average % 9.7% Coal DOID BUY 7, % 33.1% ITMG BUY 22, % 16.6% ADRO BUY 56, % 115.8% PTBA BUY 22, (3.5) (23.0) % 21.5% Average % 46.8% Plantation AALI BUY 28, (3.2) (10.6) % 12.1% LSIP BUY 10, (14.7) % 10.9% SIMP HOLD 8, (3.7) % 5.2% Average % 9.4% Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, MEDC, INCO, DOID, TPIA report in USD. Page 4 of 6

5 Regional Indices 1D Change Price Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low World , ,990 1,657 U.S. (S&P) , ,500 2,084 U.S. (DOW) , ,275 17,884 Europe (10.93) 3,516 (0.31) (0.80) ,667 2,923 Emerging Market , , FTSE 100 (79.92) 7,215 (1.10) (2.50) (2.20) (1.48) (3.32) 1.02 n/a 7,599 6,677 CAC 40 (11.29) 5,214 (0.22) (0.94) ,442 4,311 Dax (21.64) 12,519 (0.17) (0.05) (1.83) ,952 10,175 Indonesia , (0.36) ,917 5,023 Japan , (0.17) ,318 16,112 Australia , (0.39) 0.15 (0.44) (0.91) ,957 5,052 Korea , ,453 1,931 Singapore (11.39) 3,210 (0.35) (0.81) (0.59) (1.30) (0.68) ,355 2,761 Malaysia , (0.20) (0.28) ,797 1,614 Hong Kong , (0.59) ,128 21,489 China (17.81) 3,354 (0.53) (0.77) (0.35) ,392 2,969 Taiwan , (0.28) (0.28) ,656 8,880 Thailand , ,663 1,343 Philipines , ,181 6,499 Monetary Indicators 1D Change Price Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low JIBOR Overnight (%) (0.02) 4.11 (0.08) (14.35) (21.03) (2.92) (17.43) Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a n/a Inflation Rate (%) n/a (0.07) n/a (131.82) (117.95) (116.67) (250.00) 0.97 (0.07) US Fed Rate (%) Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % (0.03) (5.75) (4.79) (18.54) (7.44) Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change Price Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Indonesia (10.00) (0.30) (0.27) (0.49) 13,593 12,920 Japan (0.37) (0.67) (1.66) (1.85) (8.37) UK (0.00) 1.36 (0.13) Euro (0.00) 1.19 (0.04) 0.46 (0.11) China (0.00) (0.26) (0.89) Commodities Indicators 1D Change Price Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Oil (0.05) (0.10) (7.22) CPO (9.00) 2, (0.32) (8.81) , , Rubber (1.50) (0.18) (12.48) , Coal (0.60) (0.61) Iron Ore (1.60) (2.08) (1.06) (3.93) (1.03) (3.59) Tin , (0.66) (0.02) (2.54) , , Nickel (125.00) 11, (1.11) (7.51) (4.31) , , Copper , (2.41) (2.78) , , Gold (4.20) 1, (0.32) (0.54) (1.10) , , Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Page 5 of 6

6 Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Arandi Ariantara Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property Cement, Telecommunication, Toll Road, Oil and Gas Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation Nadya Swastika Research Associate Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The v iews expressed in this research accurately ref lect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or v iews in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is f or information only and f or the use of the recipient. It is not to be reprod uced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable f or all investors. Moreover, although the inf ormation contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserv ed by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 6 of 6