Embun Pagi. Jul 01, For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Finding positive amidst negative catalyst
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1 Mimi Halimin For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 4, MSCI EM HANG SENG 26, KOSPI 2, FTSE 6, DJIA 17, NASDAQ 4, Valuation 2015F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY Policy Rate yr yr FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13, USD/KRW 1, USD/JPY USD/CNY Finding positive amidst negative catalyst Kombinasi dari pemulihan ekonomi AS dan antisipasi kenaikkan suku bunga The Federal Reserve, telah membuat Dolar AS menguat terhadap major currencies (termasuk Indonesia). Dolar AS telah menguat c.7.7% YtD terhadap Rupiah (as of 29 Juni 2015). Fakta ini jelas tidak menyenangkan untuk listed company yang berbasis impor seperti PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA). Erajaya group merupakan salah satu perusahaan distribusi dan perdagangan ritel peralatan telekomunikasi selular terbesar yang terintegrasi. Karena sebagian besar peralatan telekomunikasi di Indonesia merupakan barang impor (termasuk komponen), ERAA adalah salah satu perusahaan yang terkena dampak dari pelemahan rupiah. Hal ini bisa dilihat dari kinerja ERAA di 1Q15. Meskipun 1Q15 penjualan naik c.27.6%, tetapi HPP naik lebih tinggi mencapai c.28%. Akibatnya, marjin laba kotor menyempit 0,3% menjadi 9,1%, sementara laba bersih untuk pemilik perusahaan induk turun 11,8% menjadi IDR70.6bn. Namun, karena harga saham ERAA telah turun c.45% ytd, kami menyarankan investor untuk meninjau kembali ERAA karena: 1. Ekspansi gerai ritel yang agresif (dari 489 outlet di 2014 menjadi 509 outlet di 1Q15). ERAA berencana untuk membuka gerai ritel pada tahun Akuisisi terhadap CG Computers (Apple Premium Reseller di Malaysia) yang dapat memungkinkan ERAA untuk bergerak menuju regional di pasar Malaysia. 3. Akuisisi 51% saham PT Exa Nusa Persada dengan rencana membangun pabrik peralatan telekomunikasi di Cakung untuk memenuhi kebijakan pemerintah mengenai regulasi local content (TKDN). Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI Gold 1, Coal Palm Oil Rubber Nickel 11, Copper 5, Tin 13, JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt) 1,200 5,500 4,500 1,000 3, /13 02/14 11/14 ERAA vs. JCI performance D-6M= /14 01/15 02/15 03/15 04/15 05/15 06/15 ERAA JCI Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
2 Local flashes LPKR: Akuisisi 2 mall, LPKR rogoh dana Rp 1,09 triliun. PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR) menambah lagi portfolio pusat perbelanjaannya. LPKR melalui anak usahanya Lippo Mall Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIRT) Management Ltd. mengakuisisi 2 mall dengan nilai S$ 110,8 juta. Dengan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dollar Singapura di posisi Rp 9.871,43, transaksinya setara Rp 1,09 triliun. "Pada tanggal 27 Juni, LMIRT mengakuisisi Lippo Plaza Batu dan Palembang Icon. Kami percaya akusisi ini bisa memberikan keuntungan bagi LMIRT," kata Direktur Eksekutif dan Chief Executive Officer (CEO) LMIRT Alvin Cheng Yu Dong, dalam laporannya ke Bursa Efek Singapura. (Kontan) BUMI: Bumi Resources Cetak Rugi Bersih Rp4,77 Triliun. Emiten Group Bakrie PT Bumi Resources Tbk. (BUMI) mencetak rugi bersih US$389,71 juta setara dengan Rp4,77 triliun sepanjang periode Berdasarkan laporan keuangan perseroan yang dirilis Selasa (30/6/2015) di PT Bursa Efek Indonesia, disebutkan rugi bersih yang dapat diatribusikan kepada entitas induk tersebut lebih rendah 39,44% ketimbang tahun lalu US$643,59 juta. (Bisnis Indonesia) ISSP: 2015, Spindo Siapkan "Capex" US$ 41 Juta. PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk (ISSP) bakal menyiapkan belanja modal (capital expenditure/ capex) tahun ini sebesar US$ 41 juta. Perseroan bakal menggunakan sebagian besar capex untuk kebutuhan pabrik baru perseroan di Gresik, Jawa Timur. Wakil Presiden Direktur Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (Spindo), Tedja Sukmana mengungkapkan, perseroan akan memenuhi kebutuhan dana capex melalui kas internal dan pinjaman bank. Belanja modal tahun ini, kata dia, merupakan bagian dari rencana pembangunan pabrik baru dengan total kebutuhan dana sebesar US$ 110 juta. (Berita Satu) LRNA: Dongkrak Kinerja, Lorena Perluas Penjualan Tiket "e-commerce". PT Eka Sari Lorena Transport Tbk (LRNA) memperluas pemasaran dengan mengembangkan sistem penjualan tiket dengan metode e-commerce dimana calon penumpang bus segmen antar kota antar provinsi (AKAP) dapat memesan secara online dan membayar dengan kartu debit atau kartu kredit. Dengan e-commerce, wilayah pemasaran tidak terbatas hanya di Indonesia, bahkan hingga ke luar negeri sehingga para pelancong asing dapat merancang perjalanannya (itenary). Diharapkan, cara ini akan meningkatkan pangsa pasar perseroan, ujar Presiden Direktur PT Eka Sari Lorena Transport Tbk G.T. Soerbakti. (Berita Satu) CTRS: Ciputra Surya Tunda Pasarkan Proyek di Papua. PT Ciputra Surya Tbk (CTRS) mengungkapkan, proyek Citraland Jayapura yang berlokasi di Papua tertunda pemasarannya menjadi tahun depan. Direktur sekaligus Sekretaris Perusahaan Nanik J Santoso menjelaskan proyek tersebut tertunda karena terkendala izin yang belum selesai. (Sindonews) PGAS: Pertamina dan PGN Teken Kontrak Jual Beli Gas. PT Pertamina (Persero) melalui perusahaan afiliasinya, PT Pertamina Gas Niaga menyepakati Perjanjian Jual- Beli Gas (PJBG) dengan PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk. Bertempat di Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM), dua BUMN tadi menandatangani PJBG dengan volume gas sebesar 8 juta kaki kubik per hari untuk dipasok ke kawasan industri Sumut. Dari pokok perjanjiannya, PGN diketahui membeli gas dari hasil regasifikasi dari LNG di Arun yang dialirkan melalui pipa transmisi gas Arun-Belawan yang dioperasikan Pertagas. (CNN Indonesia) TLKM: Bidik 1 Juta Pelanggan, Telkom Kebut Pemasangan Serat Optik. PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk di wilayah Regional V Jawa Timur, Bali dan Nusa Tenggara, akan mempercepat pemasangan fiber optic (FO) agar target 1 juta pelanggan Indi Home tercapai. Executive Vice President Infrastructure Telkom Regional V I Ketut Budi Utama mengatakan pelanggan layanan Indi Home di Regional V sampai saat ini masih pelanggan. Namun, Telkom optimistis dapat meraih target tersebut karena kesiapan infrastruktur jaringan sudah mencapai 70%. (Bisnis Indonesia) 2
3 Technical analysis Recommendation Trading Sell Close 4,911 Resistance 4,920 Support 4,890 Stop-Loss 4,850 View from the Charts Ditengah kekisruhan permasalahan penyelesaian utang Yunani, bursa-bursa utama asia dan IHSG justru membukukan penguatan dan IHSG mencatatkan kenaikan sebesar 0.6% ditutup di level 4,911. Dimana sebelumnya mencoba kembali memasuki area konsolidasi 4,935-5,010. Namun aksi ambil untung paska para pelaku pasar melakukan bargain hunting, mengakibatkan IHSG gagal bertahan pada support 4,920. Para Investor Asing mencatatkan total nilai perdagangan bersih sebesar IDR239.1bn, pada seluruh papan perdagangan. Sementara transaksi keseluruhan yang terjadi pada perdagangan kemarin, adalah sebesar IDR5.9tr dan 8.75bn total saham yang diperdagangkan para pelaku pasar. PSAR yang melemah awal pekan, serta menyempitnya ruang pada Bollinger Band memberikan indikasi bahwasanya IHSG mulai kehilangan kekuatannya dan akan cenderung bergerak datar pada perdagangan hari ini. Kami perkirakan IHSG pada perdagangan esok hari akan mencoba bergerak dan bertahan pada area positif 4,870-4,950 Chart 1. IHSG Daily Chart Chart 2. IHSG Intraday Chart Source: HOTS, Source: HOTS, 3
4 Stocks on our focus list Recommendation Trading Target Price 5,600 Close 5,475 Resistance 5,500 Support 5,400 Stop-Loss 5,275 PT Jasa Marga(Persero), Tbk (JSMR) Ditengah maraknya bargain hunting, JSMR berhasil melakukan reversal pada support 5,350 yang terbentuk di awal 2014 dan mencatatkan kenaikan 2.3% ditutup pada level harga IDR5,475 kemarin. Tejadi peningkatan 40.1% pada jumlah saham yang diperdagangkan, dibandingkan hari sebelumnya, serta masih terbuka ruang bagi saham emiten tersebut untuk mencoba penetrasi resistensi IDR5,500 menuju IDR5,600 pada area oversold 44.4%. Kami perkirakan JSMR akan bergerak dalam rentang harga IDR5,450-5,600. Chart 3. JSMR HOTS, 4
5 Recommendation Trading Target Price 2,550 Close 2,505 Resistance 2,510 Support 2,480 Stop-Loss 2,480 PT Wijaya Karya(Persero), Tbk (WIKA) Doji pada penghujung tekanan pelemahan -9.1% yang telah terjadi sejak 5 hari perdagangan terakhir, mengindikasikan terbentuknya Morning Doji dan membuka peluang bagi WIKA menguat serta melakukan penetrasi resistensi IDR2,510. Eskalasi sebesar 19.4% pada total saham yang diperdagangkan di area oversold 10.2%, merupakan beberapa factor yang diharapkan membantu mendorong penguatan WIKA mencapai resistensi harga selanjutnya di IDR2,550. Pada hari ini WIKA diharapkan bergerak mix-positif dalam rentang harga IDR2,500-2,550 Chart 4. WIKA HOTS, 5
6 Recommendation Trading Target Price 6,700 Close 6,575 Resistance 6,650 Support 6,500 Stop-Loss 6,450 PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, Tbk (INDF) Paska membukukan kenaikan 1.5% dan ditutup diatas support IDR6,475 area oversold trading 31.6% serta menutup celah yang terbuka. INDF masih memiliki ruang untuk kembali bergerak menguat, menguji resistensi selanjutnya di IDR6,680. Kami perkirakan pada perdagangan hari ini INDF akan mencoba bergerak dalam rentang harga IDR6,550-6,625. Chart 5. INDF HOTS, 6
7 Chart 6. JCI Vs. IDR/USD (pt) JCI Composite Index (L) 5,600 USD/IDR (R) 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 3/31 4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 Source: Bloomberg, (IDR) 13,800 13,300 12,800 12,300 11,800 11,300 Chart 7. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, Absolute D 1W 1M 1Y Relative 8.1 Chart 8. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) Chart 9. Energy price (USDmn) Note: The latest figure for India is Jun, 29 th ; Source: Bloomberg, 1 Day 5 Days Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India ((USD/b) Brent (L) CPO(R) (USD) /15 4/15 4/15 5/15 5/15 6/15 6/15 Source: Bloomberg, 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 Chart 10. Non-ferrous metal price (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin /15 4/15 5/15 6/15 Source: Bloomberg, Chart 11. Precious metal price Silver Gold Platinum /15 4/15 5/15 6/15 Source: Bloomberg, 7
8 Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name BANKING Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 Bank Central Asia Tbk PT BBCA 13, , Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT BMRI 10, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBRI 10, , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBNI 5,300 98, Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT BDMN 4,300 41, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk PT BTPN 3,425 20, PROPERTY Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT SSIA 965 4, Ciputra Property Tbk PT CTRP 570 3, N/A Pakuwon Jati Tbk PT PWON , Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT ASRI , Bumi Serpong Damai PT BSDE 1,670 32, CONSTRUCTION Total Bangun Persada Tbk PT TOTL 825 2, Adhi Karya Persero Tbk PT ADHI 2,020 3, Wijaya Karya Persero Tbk PT WIKA 2,505 15, Pembangunan Perumahan Persero Tbk PT PTPP 3,470 16, Waskita Karya Persero Tbk PT WSKT 1,520 21, RETAIL & CONSUMER Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT INDF 6,575 57, Kalbe Farma Tbk PT KLBF 1,675 78, Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT MAPI 5,525 9, Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT UNVR 39, , Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT ICBP 12,475 72, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk PT RALS 690 4, Mayora Indah Tbk PT MYOR 26,000 23, Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PT ACES , Gudang Garam Tbk PT GGRM 45,100 86, Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk PT ROTI 1,150 5, AUTOMOTIVE Astra International Tbk PT ASII 7, , Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk PT IMAS 3,800 10, N/A Astra Otoparts Tbk PT AUTO 2,500 12, TELECOMMUNICATION Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk PT TLKM 2, , XL Axiata Tbk PT EXCL 3,685 31, N/A Indosat Tbk PT ISAT 4,000 21, INFRASTRUCTURE Jasa Marga Persero Tbk PT JSMR 5,475 37, Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk PT TBIG 9,225 44, MINING Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT ANTM 680 6, N/A Timah Persero Tbk PT TINS 710 5, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Persero Tbk PTBA 8,400 19, CEMENT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT INTP 20,875 76, Holcim Indonesia Tbk PT SMCB 1,500 11, Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk PT SMGR 12,000 71, Source: Bloomberg, *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 8
9 Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 2, RODA IJ 420 5, Mining 1, MSKY IJ , Basic-Industry GEMS IJ , Miscellaneous Industry 1, DUTI IJ , Consumer Goods 2, AUTO IJ , Property & Construction IMAS IJ , Infrastructure 1, CTRS IJ , Finance SILO IJ , Trade SMMA IJ , Composite 4, BMTR IJ , Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close ASII IJ 2.9 7,075 IIKP IJ ,100 TLKM IJ 0.9 2,930 KLBF IJ ,675 GGRM IJ ,100 MPPA IJ ,950 ICBP IJ ,475 UNVR IJ ,500 SMMA IJ 4.3 4,900 BBRI IJ ,350 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 2:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y -19.5% 3:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI :30am CHF Manufacturing PMI :45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI :50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI :55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI :00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI :30am GBP Manufacturing PMI :30am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 5:30am GBP BOE Financial Stability Report All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -22.5% All Day CAD Bank Holiday 8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 219K 201K 9:45am USD Final Manufacturing PMI :00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI :00am USD Construction Spending m/m 0.4% 2.2% 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices :30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.9M -4.9M Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -1.3% All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 17.2M 17.8M 7:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 36.2% 35.6% 9:00pm NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -4.7% 9:30pm AUD Trade Balance -2.21B -3.89B 11:45pm JPY 10-y Bond Auction Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purpo sed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies 9
10 and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia
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March 20, 2015 Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5,453.9
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