Medco Energi Internasional Bloomberg: MEDC.IJ Reuters: MEDC.JK

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1 Company Update Medco Energi Internasional Bloomberg: MEDC.IJ Reuters: MEDC.JK Samuel Research 21 April 2017 BUY (Maintain) Target Price Rp 4,500 Last Price Rp 3,170 Potential Upside 42.0% JCI Index 5,624 Share issued (mn) 3,332 Market Cap. (Rp bn) 10, Weeks High/Low 1,145 / 3,720 Avg Daily Vol (mn) Free Float 18.4% Nominal Value Rp 100 Book value/share 17 Rp 4,092 Relative to JCI Chart 20% 0% -20% 1/5/2015 1/5/2016 1/5/ % -60% -80% -100% MEDC Equity Company Background Shareholder Structure JCI Index PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) adalah perusahaan yang bergerak di sektor minyak dan gas dengan aset yang tersebar di dalam dan luar negeri. Pada akhir tahun 2016, perseroan memasuki bisnis tambang melalui akuisisi Amman Mineral Investama, induk usaha dari Newmont Nusa Tenggara Encore Energy Pte Ltd 36.4% Credit Suisse Trust 21.2% Account Prudential Life Assurance 7.3% Mitsubishi UFJ 15.3% Lainnya 0.3% Public 19.5% Arandi Ariantara arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id Cementing core business Tambahan 35% hak partisipasi South Natuna menjadi katalis pendorong kinerja. Kami mengubah metode valuasi Amman dari DCF ke EV/reserves dan memasukkan estimasi pembiayaan belanja modal sebesar US$ 9 miliar dengan struktur debt to equity 60:40. Mempertahankan BUY dan TP Rp (SOTP). Prospek positif dari tambahan 35% hak partisipasi South Natuna, Di bulan Maret 2017, MEDC mengakuisisi 35% hak partisipasi South Natuna Sea Block B (SNSB) dari INPEX senilai US$ 167 juta. Akuisisi ini membuat MEDC memegang hak partisipasi sebesar 75% di SNSB dan berpotensi mendorong produksi perseroan lebih besar dari yang ditargetkan (SSI 17F: 91 ribu barrel oil equivalent/day (mboe/d) vs MEDC 17F: 80 mboe/d). memberikan kontribusi sekitar 32% dari produksi Produksi kami prediksi tumbuh 38% yoy. Secara konservatif kami perkirakan produksi SNSB di 2017 sebesar 29,2 mboe/d dan secara total, kami proyeksikan produksi MEDC tumbuh 38% yoy menjadi 91 ribu mboe/d dengan SNSB berkontribusi sekitar 32%, diikuti oleh Senoro Toili (figure 2). EBITDA kami proyeksikan tumbuh 73% seiring stabilnya biaya produksi ditengah peningkatan produksi. Kami estimasi biaya produksi 2017 akan stabil di bawah US$10/boe, sehingga 38% peningkatan produksi akan berimbas positif untuk EBITDA, kami memproyeksikan tumbuh 73%. Di sisi lain, laba bersih kami proyeksikan flat di tahun ini disebabkan oleh peningkatan beban bunga serta pajak efektif minyak dan gas (2016: 24% 2017F: 40%). Laba bersih FY17E US$ 182 juta, (-1% yoy). Produksi emas dan tembaga ditargetkan lebih rendah akibat transisi fase, sementara... MEDC menargetkan produksi emas dan tembaga Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara (AMNT) tahun ini sebesar 420 ribu troy once (toz) emas dan 310 juta pound (lbs) tembaga, atau turun 47% dan 35% yoy. Dimana transisi pertambangan dari fase 6 ke fase 7 menjadi katalis. belanja modal berkelanjutan AMNT mencapai US$ 9 miliar, membuat kami mengubah metode valuasi. Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) memberitakan belanja modal berkelanjutan AMNT mencapai US$ 9 miliar. Untuk itu kami memasukkan belanja modal tersebut ke dalam valuasi EV/reserves dengan struktur debt to equity (60:40). Mempertahankan BUY dan TP Rp Kami mempertahankan BUY dengan target price di Rp (metode SOTP). Resiko dari investasi adalah tidak tercapainya target produksi Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp3,170 per share) Y/E Dec (US$ mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue EBIT EBITDA Net Profit (188) EPS (Rp) (756) BVPS (Rp) 2,799 3,544 4,092 4,708 DPS (Rp) na Dividend Yield (%) na EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV Ratio (x) P/E Ratio (x) na Net Gearing (x) Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 1 of 6

2 Figure 1. Produksi MEDC, E (mboe/d) % 56% 40 44% 42% % 64% 59% 64% % 58% 44% 46% 36% 44% 36% 41% E 2018E Minyak Gas Sumber: Perseroan, SSI Research Figure 2. Kontributor produksi MEDC, E E Other 1% Tunisia 1% Other 0% Tunisia 2% USA 1% South Natuna 3% Oman 13% Senoro Toili 29% Rimau 15% SCS 24% USA 0.5% South Natuna 32% Oman 9% Rimau 10% Senoro Toili 23% SCS 15% Lematang 6% Tarakan 2% Tarakan 3% Lematang 10% Sumber: Perseroan, SSI Research Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 2 of 6

3 Figure 3. Porsi pendapatan bersih vs cost recovery, E (US$ mn) 1, % 56% % 64% 41% 36% % % 38% 37% E 2018E Pendapatan bersih Cost recovery* Sumber: SSI Research, Perseroan *estimasi SSI Research Figure 4. Biaya lifting minyak, E (US$/boe) E 2018E Lifting costs G&A Sumber: SSI Research, Perseroan Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 3 of 6

4 Figure 5. Perusahaan pembanding Gold Company Market Cap (US$ bn) EV (US$ bn) Reserve (mn oz) EV/Reserve Newmont Newcrest AngloGold Ashanti Gold Corp Harmony Gold Gold Fields Kinross Freeport -McMoran Average Copper Company Market Cap (bln USD) EV (US$ bn) Reserve (bn lbs) EV/Reserve Sourthen Copper BHP Biliton Freeport -McMoran Rio Tinto Average Sumber: Bloomberg, SSI Research Figure 6. Valuasi Amman Multiples Batu Hijau Items Reserves Avg EV US$bn EV/mn toz Gold (mn toz) EV/bn lbs Copper (bn lbs) Total 7.3 Enterprise Value (US$ bn) % debt of US$ 9bn (5.4) Equity value 1.6 Share outs. (bn) 6.8 Target prices 0.2 MEDC portion 41% 0.1 IDR/US$ 13,650 IDR 1,500 Sumber: Bloomberg, SSI Research Figure 7. SOTP Valuation Sum of the part IDR MEDC 3,000 NNT 1,500 Target price 4,500 Current price 3,170 Upside 42% Sumber: SSI Research Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 4 of 6

5 Key Financial Summary Profit and Loss Cash Flow Yr-end Dec (US$ mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (US$ mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue Net income (188) Cost of goods sold Depreciation & amort Gross profit Others 293 (32) G&A & Other Exp Working capital 79 (452) Operating profit Operating CF 310 (172) Operating margin (%) Net - CapEx (369) 24 (410) (320) EBITDA Others 199 (567) 0 0 EBITDA margin (%) Investing CF (170) (544) (410) (320) Other income (exp.) (228) 107 (12) 1 Net - Borrowings (36) (396) Pre-tax profit (123) Other financing (278) 64 (191) (188) Income tax - net (31) (63) (132) (140) Financing CF (227) (584) Min. intrst & discnt opra (34) (13) (16) (16) Net - Cash flow 257 (299) 56 (127) Net profit (188) Cash at beginning Net profit margin (%) (32.7) Cash at ending Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (US$ mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (US$ mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Cash ROE (%) (27.0) Receivables ROA (%) (6.5) Other Receivables Revenue growth (%) (23.4) Others EBITDA growth (%) (13.3) Total current assets 1,045 1, EPS growth (%) na na (1.5) 6.7 Net fixed assets Interest coverage (x) Net oil & gas ,197 1,372 Debt to equity (x) Other assets 775 1,514 1,514 1,514 Net gearing (x) Total assets 2,910 3,597 3,693 3,490 Payables Major Assumptions ST. debt and CMLTD A 16A 17E 18E Other current liabilities O&G sales vol. (mboe/d) Current liabilities Gold sales vol. ('000 toz) LT. debt 1,322 1,522 1,520 1,192 Copper sales vol. (mn lbs) Other LT. liabilities Oil price (US$/bbl) Total liabilities 2,208 2,707 2,651 2,287 Gold price (US$/toz) 1,061 1,148 1,200 1,250 Minority interest Copper price (US$/lbs) Total equity ,033 1,189 USD/IDR assmp. (avg) 13,394 13,305 13,200 13,200 Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 5 of 6

6 DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 6 of 6