Nippon Indosari Corpindo Bloomberg: ROTI.IJ Reuters: ROTI.JK

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1 Company Update Bloomberg: ROTI.IJ Reuters: ROTI.JK Samuel Equity Research Still Expecting Further Growth ROTI mencatatkan kinerja yang solid pada FY15, dengan laba bersih tumbuh sebesar 43.4%YoY dan mencapai Rp271 miliar (FY14: Rp189 miliar), relatif in-line dengan estimasi kami dan konsensus. Pada level top-line, ROTI berhasil membukukan penjualan bersih sebesar Rp2,2 triliun (FY14:Rp 1.9 triliun), di mana pertumbuhan penjualan tersebut mayoritas ditopang oleh peningkatan volume. Hal tersebut membuktikan bahwa di tengah tren melemahnya daya beli masyarakat secara keseluruhan, permintaan terhadap produk ROTI tetap kuat, sehingga kami berpendapat bahwa bisnis ROTI ke depannya akan tetap resilient, meskipun di tengah lesunya perekonomian Indonesia. Dengan didukung perbaikan sistem distribusi dan lebih luasnya cakupan pasar pasca ekspansi ke Filipina, kami tetap optimis terhadap kinerja ROTI untuk tahun ini dan mempertahankan BUY, dengan TP Rp1,500 /lembar saham, 16E PE: 27.6x, PBV: 5.3x) Kinerja FY15 sesuai ekspektasi. ROTI mencatatkan pertumbuhan laba bersih 43.3%YoY (FY15: Rp271 miliar vs FY14: Rp189 miliar), relatif in-line dengan estimasi kami dan konsensus. Selain didorong oleh kenaikan penjualan, pertumbuhan laba bersih tersebut didorong oleh naiknya laba operasional seiring dengan peningkatan efisiensi oleh perusahaan serta naiknya laba kotor, mengikuti turunnya harga bahan baku. Mengacu pada harga gandum yang sudah turun 36% sejak tahun 2014, menguatnya nilai Rupiah, rendahnya harga minyak, turunnya harga listrik, pada 16E kami percaya diri untuk mempertahankan gross profit margin di kisaran 53%. Perluasan pasar dan perbaikan sistem distribusi. ROTI telah bekerja sama dengan Monde Nissin Corporation untuk memproduksi roti di Filipina dengan nilai investasi 6.8 juta dolar AS. Kami menilai, ROTI dapat berhasil memperluas cakupan pasarnya, karena Filipina memiliki banyak kemiripan dengan Indonesia, terutama dari segi demografi kependudukan serta pola konsumsi makanan. Selain itu, ROTI juga terus berupaya meningkatkan kinerja sistem distribusinya, dengan menargetkan kenaikan kontribusi dari General Trade ( 16E: 30% vs FY15: 24%). Dalam mewujudkan peningkatan kontribusi tersebut,roti mengangkat Head of Sales yang khusus menangani penjualan melalui General Trade. Dengan konsentrasi yang lebih spesifik ini, kami menilai, manajemen dapat lebih handal dalam menangani profil pembeli yang berbeda dan sales return dapat ditekan ( 16E: 12% vs FY15: 13%). All in all, dengan didukung oleh lebih luasnya pasar, meningkatnya permintaan terhadap produk produk ROTI seiring membaiknya daya beli masyarakat, serta tingkat penetrasi yang lebih baik seiring digunakannya aplikasi untuk sistem distribusi, kami optimis pertumbuhan penjualan dapat mencapai 20%YoY pada 16E. Valuasi dan rekomendasi. Didukung oleh katalis positif di atas, kuatnya ekuitas merek, dan economies of scale yang dimiliki, kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY dengan TP Rp1,500/lembar saham. 31 March 2016 Target Price Rp 1,500 Last Price Rp 1,290 Potential Upside 16.3% JCI Index 4,845 Share isued (bn) 5.06 Market Cap. (Rp tn) Weeks High/Low 1420/1020 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 4.26 Free Float 42.4% Nominal Value Rp 200 Book value/share 16 Relative to JCI Chart Company Background Shareholder Structure BUY (Maintain) JCI Indoritel Makmur Internasional Tbk ROTI 60 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Rp281 PT Tbk is the largest bread producer in Indonesia. The company markets its products under the brand name Sari Roti and controls 90% market share in Indonesia s mass production bread segment % Bonlight Investments Ltd 25.12% Pasco Shikisima Corporation 8.50% Sojitz Corporation 4.25% Public 30.62% Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp1,290 per share) Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15E 16E 17E Revenue 1,880 2,174 2,608 3,257 EBITDA Net Profit EPS (Rp) DPS (Rp) Dividend Yield (%) BV per Share (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x) Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report. Marlene Tanumihardja marlene@samuel.co.id Page 1 of 6

2 Thursday, 31 March 2016 ROTI.IJ / ROTI.JK Figure 1. ROTI Result Performances and Comparisons (in Rp bn) 4Q14 3Q15 4Q15 QoQ YoY FY14 FY15 YoY FY15 vs SSI FY15 vs Cons Sales % 16% 1, % 100% 100% COGS (250) (250) (280) 112.2% 12% (979) (1020) 4% Gross Profit % 21% % 100% 103% Total Operating Expense (173) (174) (176) 101.3% 2% (603) (700) 16% Selling Expense (137) (129) (136) 105.4% 0% (483) (544) 13% G&A Expense (44) (56) (48) 85.8% 10% (156) (194) 24% Other Operating Income (Expens % 4% % Operating Profit % 54% % 106% 119% Non-Operating Income (expense (21) (15) % -845% (46) % Pre-tax Income % 61% % Tax (19) (23) (44) 191.4% 127% (64) (108) 68% Net Income % 38% % 104% 105% Profitability Gross margin 51.9% 53% 54% 1.0% 2.0% 47.9% 53.1% 5.2% Operating margin 18.6% 20% 25% 4.7% 6.1% 15.9% 20.9% 5.0% Pre-tax margin 14.7% 17% 20% 3.0% 5.5% 13.4% 17.4% 4.0% Net margin 11.0% 13% 13% 0.0% 2.0% 10.0% 12.4% 2.4% Source: Company, SSI estimates Figure 2. ROTI General vs Modern Trade Distribution Coverage 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 76% 70% 30% 24% F General Trade Modern Trade Source: Company, SSI estimates Figure 3. ROTI s PE Band Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Average ST dev +1 ST dev -1 PER - Roll ST dev -2 ST dev +2 Source: Bloomberg, SSI estimates Page 2 of 6

3 Thursday, 31 March 2016 ROTI.IJ / ROTI.JK Figure 4. Wheat Price Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Source: Company, SSI Estimates Figure 5. Historical Recommendation Date 1-Feb-16 Year Book Apr Feb Nov Oct Oct-14 Recommendation Closing Price Target BUY 1,305 1,500 BUY 1,215 1,415 BUY 1,105 1,435 BUY 1,210 1,435 BUY 1,210 1,490 BUY 1,225 1,490 BUY 1,190 1,490 Source: Company, SSI Estimates Page 3 of 6

4 Thursday, 31 March 2016 ROTI.IJ / ROTI.JK Key Financials Profit and Loss Statement Cash Flow Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Revenue 1,880 2,174 2,608 3,257 Net Income COGS 979 1,019 1,237 1,533 Depreciation & Ammort Gross profit 901 1,155 1,372 1,724 Others Gross margin (%) Working capital (55) 96 (104) (5) Operating profit Operating Cash Flow Operating margin (%) Net - Capital expenditure (598) (249) (760) (556) EBITDA Investing Cash Flow (357) (278) (793) (582) EBITDA margin (%) Net - Borrowings Other Income (Expenses) (46) (72) (88) (132) Other financing (76) (47) Pre-tax profit Financing Cash Flow Income tax - net Net - Cash flow (107) 4 Net profit Cash at beginning Net profit margin (%) Cash at ending Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Cash & ST Investment ROE 20% 23% 19% 21% Receivables ROA 9% 10% 8% 10% Inventories Revenue Growth (%) Others EBITDA Growth (%) Total Current Assets EPS Growth (%) Net fixed assets 1,680 1,822 2,438 2,824 Interest Coverage (x) Other assets Debt to Equity (%) Total Assets 2,143 2,706 3,324 3,832 Net Gearing (%) Payables ST. debt and curr. maturity ,040 Major Assumptions Other current liabilities Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E LT. debt , Inflation rate (%) Other long term liabilities Sales volume growth (%) Total Liabilities 1,183 1,517 1,899 2,109 ASP growth (%) Total Equity 960 1,189 1,425 1,723 Sales return (%) Page 4 of 6

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6 DISCLAIMERS Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia. Page 6 of 6