Contractor PreFinance helps growth

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1 Target Price Rp 5,000 Last Price Rp 4,220 Potential Upside 18.5% JCI Index 5,312 Share issued (mn) 7,258 Market Cap. (Rp bn) 30, Weeks High/Low 3,900/6,325 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 2.71 Free Float 30.0% Nominal Value Rp 500 Book value/share 17 Rp 2 Relative to JCI Chart 10% BUY (Maintain) 0% Jan-15-10% Sep-15 May-16 Jan-1-20% -30% -40% -50% JSMR Equity Company Background Shareholder Structure JCI Index PT Jasa Marga (JSMR) adalah operator jalan tol di Indonesia. Saat ini perseroan mengoperasikan jalan tol sepanjang 593 km dengan pangsa pasar sebesar 61%. Porsi terbesar portfolio jalan tol di 2 wilayah dengan populasi besar yaitu, pulau Jawa dan Sumatera. Government of Indonesia 70.0% Public 30.0% Arandi Ariantara arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id Contractor PreFinance helps growth Laba bersih 2017 kami estimasi tumbuh 13% y-y ditopang oleh kenaikan trafik dan tarif. Di sisi lain, skema contractor prefinance (CPF) menjadi kunci vital JSMR untuk menjaga arus kas JSMR tetap sehat, ditengah target jalan tol sepanjang 1.226km di Estimasi laba bersih 2017 tumbuh 13%, Kami estimasikan laba bersih perseroan tahun 2017 tumbuh 13% y-y menjadi Rp 1,9 triliun, merepresentasikan EPS sebesar Rp 272. Selain itu, rencana refinancing dengan bunga yang lebih rendah kami proyeksikan akan membantu kestabilan proyeksi laba bersih JSMR. seiring kenaikan trafik (5%) dan tarif (7%). Trafik JSMR kami perkirakan meningkat 5% y-y menjadi 1,5 miliar kendaraan seiring dengan penambahan ruas tol yang beroperasi di Semarang Solo ruas Bawen Salatiga, Surabaya Mojokerto ruas Sepanjang Krian, Gempol Pasuruan, Medan Kualanamu Tebing Tinggi dan Solo Ngawi - Kertosono. Sementara tarif diproyeksikan naik 7% y-y seiring dengan penyesuaian tarif tol di sejumlah ruas utama seperti, Jagorawi, Jakarta-Tangerang dan Jakarta Outer Ring Road (JORR). Anggaran konstruksi tol sebesar Rp 22 triliun di Perseroan mengalokasikan belanja modal (capex) sebesar Rp 27 triliun untuk 2017, naik Rp 17 triliun dan akan digunakan untuk pembangunan 235 km jalan tol baru (81%), biaya operasional (15%) dan sisanya pengembangan anak usaha properti dan jasa layanan pemeliharaan. Target jalan tol perseroan di 2017 bertambah menjadi 820 km. Target jalan tol 1.226km di 2019 dengan skema CPF. JSMR membutuhkan investasi total sebesar Rp 82 triliun untuk membangun km hingga 2019, dimana perseroan mengedepankan skema CPF yang memungkinkan pembangunan jalan tol tanpa mengganggu arus kas. Mempertahankan BUY dengan TP Rp Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY dan TP Rp 5.000, merefleksikan P/E 2017 sebesar 18x. Resiko dari rekomendasi kami adalah lebih tingginya beban bunga, tertundanya proyek dan gagalnya skema contractor prefinancing. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp4,220 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) Toll Revenue 7,121 8,086 9,055 10,703 EBIT 3,478 3,933 4,394 5,158 EBITDA 4,155 4,773 5,316 6,172 Net Profit 1,466 1,740 1,971 1,965 EPS (Rp) BVPS (Rp) 1,435 1,604 1,794 1,984 DPS (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV Ratio (x) P/E Ratio (x) Net Gearing (x) Page 1 of 5

2 Figure 1. Profitability ratio, 2015A 2018E, (%) Figure 2. Toll road length vs traffic volume, E EBITDA margin Net margin ROE 1,200 1,100 1, ,133 1, ,445 1, , Toll road length (km) Traffic Volume (mn) 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 Figure 3. Net gearing & interest coverage, E Figure 4. Toll road revenue contribution, 9M16, (%) Others 64 Jakarta - Cikampek Cikampek - Padalarang JORR Seksi non S Cemareng Net gearing (%) Interest coverage (x) Jagorawi Page 2 of 5

3 Figure 5. New projects as of December Page 3 of 5

4 KEY FINANCIALS Profit and Loss Cash Flow Rp bn Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Toll operating rev 7,121 8,086 9,055 10,703 Net income 1,466 1,740 1,971 1,965 Toll operating exp (3,518) (4,111) (4,879) (5,913) Depreciation & amort ,062 1,380 Gross profit 4,128 4,634 5,007 5,849 Others G&A & Other Exp. (650) (701) (613) (690) Working capital , Operating profit 3,478 3,933 4,394 5,158 Operating CF 2,624 3,458 4,718 3,575 Operating margin (%) Net - CapEx (3,653) (4,900) (15,475) (20,577) EBITDA 4,155 4,773 5,316 6,172 Investing CF (5,412) (5,032) (15,409) (20,610) EBITDA margin (%) Net - Borrowings 2,210 2,163 7,284 6,008 Other income (exp.) (1,405) (1,237) (1,399) (2,066) Other financing 611 (878) 3,405 10,413 Pre-tax profit 2,068 2,691 2,989 3,087 Financing CF 2,821 1,285 10,688 16,421 Income tax - net (749) (969) (1,076) (1,019) Net - Cash flow 32 (289) (3) (614) Net profit 1,466 1,740 1,971 1,965 Cash at beginning 3,290 3,323 3,033 3,030 Net profit margin (%) Cash at ending 3,323 3,033 3,030 2,416 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Cash 3,323 3,033 3,030 2,416 ROE (%) Receivables ROA (%) Other Receivables Revenue growth (%) Others EBITDA growth (%) Total current assets 3,722 3,392 3,447 2,909 EPS growth (%) Net fixed assets 29,736 33,814 48,227 67,424 Interest coverage (x) Other assets 3,260 3,392 3,326 3,359 Debt to equity (%) Total assets 36,725 40,606 55,010 73,703 Net gearing (%) Payables ST. debt and CMLTD 5,244 5,645 5,256 5,965 Major Assumptions Other current liabilities 2,362 3,162 4,879 5,142 LT. debt 11,974 13,737 21,409 26,708 Toll road length (km) ,133 Other LT. liabilities 4,638 4,274 8,274 19,274 Traffic Volume (mn) 1,375 1,350 1,445 1,562 Total liabilities 24,356 27,012 40,040 57,356 Average Tariff (Rp) 5,179 5,720 6,104 6,852 Total equity 12,369 13,595 14,970 16,348 Cash Cost/km (Rp bn Page 4 of 5

5 Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer Rangga Cipta Economist Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation Adde Chandra Kurniawan Research Associate Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 5 of 5