Summarecon Agung Bloomberg: SMRA.IJ Reuters: SMRA.JK

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1 Company Update Summarecon Agung Bloomberg: SMRA.IJ Reuters: SMRA.JK Samuel Research 28 Agustus 2017 Target Price Rp 1,110 Last Price Rp 1,100 Potential Upside 0.9% JCI Index 5,915 Share isued (mn) Market Cap. (Rp bn) Weeks High/Low 1,970 / 975 Avg Daily Vol (mn) Free Float 67.8 Nominal Value Rp 100 Book value/share 17 Rp 556 Relative to JCI Chart HOLD (Maintain) JCI Company Background Shareholder Structure SMRA 60 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 PT Summarecon Agung Tbk dan anak usahanya bergerak di bidang properti developer. SMRA mengembangkan dan mengoperasikan berbagai proyek residential houses, apartments, shopping centers, recreational centers dan office buildings. Semarop Agung 25.4% Sinarmegah Jayasentosa 6.6% Others 68.0% Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id Too premium Hingga paruh tahun dan pencapaian pre sales per 7M17, SMRA masih belum mampu menunjukan perbaikan kinerjanya. Kemampuan merealisasikan back log dan penurunan target pre sales menjadi dua sentimen negative saham SMRA. Katalis akan datang dari penurunan 7DRR sebesar 25bp yang kami harapkan akan menaikan optimisme pasar, mendorong permintaan dan meningkatkan profil konsumen menggunakan mortgage. Namun demikian untuk sementara kami belum merubah sudut pandang dan rekomendasi, tetap HOLD dengan TP Rp1,110/saham (70% disc to NAV) 49.02xPE17E dan 2xPBV17E. Tantangan paruh tahun kedua. Meskipun pendapatan 1H17 tercatat 9.4% diatas proyeksi 1H17E SSI, laba di periode yang sama hanya mampu mencapai 94.4% vs 1H17E kami. Pencapaian laba di 1H17 vs FY17E SSI dan konsensus juga terpaut sangat jauh, hanya sebesar 14.9% (SSI) dan 14.1% (consensus). Di paruh kedua tahun ini, tantangan bagi SMRA akan semakin berat. Untuk mencapai nilai wajar TP SSI sebesar Rp1,307/saham dan 1.336/saham (konsensus), maka SMRA harus membukukan laba bersih di paruh kedua sebesar 85.1% dari FY17 kami atau 85.9% vs proyeksi konsensus, atau jauh dibandingkan dengan rata-rata (2H13-2H16) 58.89%. Belum membaiknya pre-sales. Rendahnya kinerja tersebut tidak terlepas dari catatan nilai marketing sales yang hingga periode 7M17 masih belum terlihat mengalami peningkatan. Di 7M17 pre sales tercatat sebesar Rp1.54tn atau %YoY dan tidak jauh berbeda dengan pencapaian di periode yang sama tahun lalu (7M16) sebesar %. Perbaikan kinerja sektor yang masih belum menunjukan perbaikan telah mendorong SMRA menurunkan target pre-salesnya dari Rp4.5tn (SSI Rp3.8tn) menjadi Rp3.5tn. Valuasi premium. Pasca kenaikan saham SMRA yang mendekati TP SSI, kami telah menurunkan rekomendasi menjadi HOLD (lihat report SSI sebelumnya: 05/29/17). Tidak berubahnya rekomendasi dan sudut pandang SSI pada saham SMRA telah mendorong kami menurunkan TP dengan diskon to NAV yang lebih tinggi. Hal ini juga kami lakukan mengingat valuasi premium saham SMRA belum mencerminkan dan tidak diikuti dengan perbaikan kinerja fundamental. Maintain HOLD. Kami tengah melakukan review untuk SMRA dan akan menggunakan kinerja 3Q17 sebagai basis rencana penurunan rekomendas. Resiko investasi: (1) tidak membaiknya kinerja fundamental (2) minimnya dampak positif penurunan 7DRR (3) perbaikan sektor masih tertunda. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp1,100 per share) Y/E Dec (Rpbn) 15A 16E 17E 18E Sales 5,624 5,398 5,810 6,246 EBITDA 2,097 1,771 2,090 2,199 Net Profit EPS (Rp/saham) DPS (Rp) Dividend Yield (%) 1.8% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% BV per share (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x) Page 1 of 5

2 Figure 1. SMRA NAV Valuation Assets Source: Company, SSI research Area (ha) Ownership (%) Estimated NAV (Rp bn) Estimated NAV/Share Summarecon KG 8 100% 1, Summarecon Serpong 484 Own land % 15,504 1,075 JO JBC % 2, JO TGS 42 55% Summarecon Bekasi 393 Own land % 6, JV DSA % 4, Summarecon Bandung % 3, Summarecon Bali % Summarecon Bogor % 2, Summarecon Makassar 339 Own land % 1, JV SMC % 1, Summarecon Karawang % Other properties & inventories % 1, Total land 2,210 Total estimated NAV 41,664 2,888 After tax 39,581 2,744 Recurring Revenues 21,295 1,476 Subtotal (IDRbn) 60,875 4,220 Total Shares (in mn) 14,427 Debt 6, Advances from cust 2, Cash 1, Net Asset Value 53,362 3,699 70% disc to NAV 70% 1,110 Market Price (IDR) 1,100 Upside Potential 0.9% Figure 2. SMRA and Peers Stock Rec Mkt Cap Last price YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE (Rp bn) (Rp) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E BSDE BUY 35,221 1, ,293 2, % 8.5% PWON BUY 32, % 19.3% ASRI BUY 7, % 6.6% SMRA HOLD 15,869 1,100 (17.0) 1,336 1, % 5.7% SSIA BUY 3, % 7.5% CTRA BUY 22,551 1,215 (9.0) 1,560 1, % 9.4% DMAS BUY 9, (11.3) % 10.8% KIJA BUY 6, % 8.1% Average % 9.5% Page 2 of 5

3 Figure 3. SMRA latest quarterly result - 1H17 Rpbn 2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 QoQ YoY 6M16 6M17 YoY Sales 1,271 1,230 1, ,318 2, COGS (687) (656) (873) (1,257) (1,530) 21.7 Gross profit (0.3) 1,060 1, S&GA and others (317) (273) (341) (534) (614) 15.0 Operating profit (19.6) (9.7) Net Interest expense (146) (129) (152) (262) (281) 7.2 Pre-tax profit (48.3) (26.7) (1.6) Profit (loss) for the period (86.8) (69.7) (4.4) Owners of the parent (4) 56 (7) (113.2) Margin Gross margin (6.6) (6.0) (2.7) Operating margin (7.8) (4.4) (2.6) Net margin (0.3) 4.6 (0.5) (5.1) (0.2) Figure 4. SMRA P/E Band Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Average ST dev +1 ST dev -1 PE - Forward ST dev +2 ST dev -2 Page 3 of 5

4 Key financial figures Profit and Loss Cash Flow Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue 5,624 5,398 5,810 6,246 Net income COGS (2,717) (2,800) (3,013) (3,302) Depreciation & amort. (222) (266) (420) (473) Gross profit 2,907 2,598 2,797 2,944 Others Gross margin (%) Working capital (1,464) (1,448) 1,369 (530) Operating profit 1,791 1,410 1,535 1,553 Operating CF (21) (1,402) 1,276 (567) Operating margin (%) Net - Capital expenditure (567) (471) (568) (588) EBITDA 2,097 1,771 2,090 2,199 Investing CF (1,907) (489) (2,037) (1,247) EBITDA margin (%) Net - Borrowings 1,535 2,027 (1,232) 133 Other inc (exp) (409) (532) (614) (575) Others 126 3,121 (545) 1,058 Pre-tax profit 1, Financing CF 1,660 5,148 (1,777) 1,191 Income tax - net (316) (261) (291) (312) Net - Cash flow (267) 3,258 (2,538) (623) Net profit Cash at beginning 1, ,164 1,626 Net profit margin (%) Cash at ending 906 4,164 1,626 1, % 4.8% 33.3% Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E Cash & ST Invest 1,504 2,076 1,626 1,003 ROE (%) Receivables ROA (%) Inventories 4,925 5,531 5,088 5,470 Revenue growth (%) 3.09 (1.83) Others EPS growth (%) (38.29) (63.55) Total current assets 7,290 8,699 7,604 7,429 Interest coverage (x) 2.86 (8.68) (18.16) (41.98) Land for development 5,737 6,158 3,952 3,187 Debt to equity (%) Net fixed assets 4,732 4,938 5,087 5,202 Net gearing (%) Other assets 999 1,016 2,485 3,143 Total assets 18,758 20,810 19,128 18,961 Marketing sales Payables Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E ST. debt & curr. mat 983 1,402 1, SSP (Serpong) 2,732 2,197 2,488 2,718 LT. debt 5,214 6,024 5,178 5,343 SBK (Bekasi) Other liabilities 4,664 4,804 4,528 4,521 SKG (Kelapa Gading) Total liabilities 11,229 12,645 11,102 11,256 SBD (Bandung) Total equity 7,529 8,166 8,026 7,705 Total 4,350 3,460 3,825 4,349 Page 4 of 5

5 Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Arandi Ariantara Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property Cement, Telecommunication, Toll Road, Oil and Gas Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation Nadya Swastika Research Associate Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 5 of 5