Presentasi Tugas Akhir - KS091336

Transkripsi

1 Presentasi Tugas Akhir - KS Simulasi Sistem Dinamis terhadap Analisis Faktor Pertumbuhan Industri UKM Sektor Pertanian dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap PDRB Provinsi Jawa Timur Penyusun Tugas Akhir : Umi Salama Dosen Pembimbing : Erma Suryani, S.T., M.T., Ph.D

2 Causal Loop Diagram

3 Base Model Sub-Model Agricultural Area Sub-Model Total Production Value Sub-Model Total Agricultural SME Sub-Model GDRP

4 Agricultural Area

5 Formulasi Population(t) = Population (t-1) + Birth rate-death rate Birth rate = 0,77 * Population Death rate = 0,76 * Population Total housing & industrial area = ((average area per capita * population) +(average area per industry * (total agricultural SME + total non agricultural SME)))/10000

6 Formulasi Agricultural area = Regional area (total housing & industrial area+other area) Food farming area = 67,4/100 * agricultural area Plantation area = 25,4/100* agricultural area Horticulture area = 7/100 * agricultural area Land fishery s area = 0,3/100 * agricultural area Fishery area = land fishery s area * ocean s area

7 Formulasi Average food farming area per SME = total food farming SME / food farming area Average plantation area per SME = total plantation SME / plantation area Average horticulture area per SME = total horticulture SME / horticulture area Average fishery area per SME = total fishery SME / fishery area

8 Total Production Value

9 Formulasi Food farming production rate = average food farming area per SME * average food farming prod. * total food farming SME Plantation production rate = average plantation area per SME * average plantation prod. * total plantation SME Horticulture rate = average horticulture area per SME * average horticulture prod. * total horticulture SME

10 Formulasi Stock farm production rate = average stock farm area per SME * total stock farm SME Fishery production rate = average fishery area per SME * average fishery prod. * total fishery SME

11 Total Agricultural SME

12 Formulasi Credit available = credit available look up(time) Credit available look up = (2000, e+010), (2001, e+011), (2002, e+011), (2003, e+011), (2004, e+011), (2005, e+011), (2006, e+011), (2007, e+011), (2008, e+012), (2009, e+009), (2010, e+012)

13 Formulasi Food farming SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008* 0.68 Plantation SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008* 0.18 Horticulture SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008* 0.08 Stock farm SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008* 0.03 Fishery SME rate = (credit available + 8e + 012) / 1.7e+008* 0.02

14 Formulasi Fishery SME rate = (credit available + 8e + 012) / 1.7e+008* 0.02 Total agricultural SME = total fishery SME+total food farming SME+total horticulture SME+total plantation SME+total stock farm SME

15 GDRP

16 Formulasi GDRP (t) = GDRP rate - GDRP (t-1) GDRP rate = domestic consumption + government expenditure + investment + net export Net eksport = export import

17 Formulasi Import = import look up(time) Import look up = (2000, e+013), (2001, e+013), (2002, 1.119e+014), (2003, e+014), (2004, e+014), (2005, e+014), (2006, e+014), (2007, e+014), (2008, e+014), (2009, e+014), (2010, e+014)

18 Formulasi Investment = investment look up(time) Investment look up = (2000, e+013), (2001, e+013), (2002, e+013), (2003, e+013), (2004, e+013), (2005, e+013), (2006, e+014), (2007, e+014), (2008, e+014), (2009, e+014), (2010, e+014)

19 Formulasi Government expenditure = government expenditure look up(time) Government expenditure look up = (2000, e+013), (2001, e+013), (2002, e+013), (2003, e+013), (2004, e+013), (2005, e+013), (2006, e+013), (2007, e+013), (2008, e+013), (2009, e+013), (2010, e+013)

20 Validasi Model = 0,041245

21 Validasi Model = 0,036852

22 Validasi Model = 0,05

23 Skenario Optimis

24 Skenario Optimis domestic consumtion non agriculture growth rate = * domestic consumption non agriculture export non agriculture growth rate = 0.163*export non agriculture import growth rate = 0.156*import government expenditure growth rate = 0.155*government expenditure invesment growth rate = 0.167*investment

25 Skenario Optimis total export = total production value*0.3+export non agruculture total domestic consumption = total production value * 0.63+domestic consumption non agriculture credit available growth rate = 0.4*credit available

26 Skenario Optimis Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3% Time Total Agricultural GDRP (Year) SME

27 Skenario Optimis Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3%

28 Skenario Optimis Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3% Time (Year) GDRP Total Production Value Sumbangan % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

29 Skenario Optimis Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3%

30 Skenario Pesimis Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2% Time (Year) GDRP Total Agricultural SME

31 Skenario Pesimis Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2%

32 Skenario Pesimis Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2% Time (Year) GDRP Total Production Value Sumbangan % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

33 Skenario Pesimis Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2%

34 Skenario Most Likely Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1% Time (Year) GDRP Total Agricultural SME

35 Skenario Most Likely Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1%

36 Skenario Most Likely Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1% Time Sumban GDRP Total Production Value (Year) gan % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

37 Skenario Most Likely Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1%

38 Analisis Hasil Scenario Type Pertumbuhan jumlah UKM (%) Pertumbuhan GDRP (%) Pertumbuhan Nilai Produksi (%) Rata-Rata Sumbangan GDRP (%) Skenario Optimistis Skenario Most Likely Skenario Pesimistis 3 16,3 14, ,2 14, ,2 14,01 32

39 Kesimpulan Sistem ini dapat meramalkan kontribusi pertumbuhan UKM terhadap nilai PDRB di masa mendatang karna setelah dilakukan uji verifikasi hasil, dengan perhitungan perbandingan rata-rata dan perbandingan standard deviasi, simulasi base model tersebut memiliki hasil < 5% untuk perbandingan rata-rata dan < 30 % untuk perbandingan standard deviasi. Dalam melakukan perkiraan nilai kontribusi UKM sektor pertanian terhadap nilai PDRB di masa mendatang, diketahui bahwa pertumbuhan UKM sangatlah dipengaruhi oleh luas area tanam dan produktivitas panen serta kredit yang disediakan oleh pemerintah. Selain itu, pertumbuhan UKM sektor pertanian memberikan kontribusi yang besar terhadap nilai PDRB dengan kontribusi sebesar rata-rata 32% dari total seluruh nilai PDRB.

40 Kesimpulan Dilihat dari hasil simulasi, menunjukkan bahwa tingkat kontribusi UKM sektor pertanian terhadap PDRB akan terus menurun. Hal ini disebabkan pertumbuhan jumlah UKM akan mengurangi luas area tanam sehingga menurangi produktivitas UKM sektor pertanian. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi skenario (optimis, pesimis, most likely), peningkatan jumlah UKM juga akan meningkatkan nilai produksi UKM pertanian yang akhirnya akan meningkatkan nilai PDRB. Peningkatan yang terjadi tidak terlalu signifikan sebesar 0,1% hingga 4%.